Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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1503. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON HUANING
11:00 AM PhST July 12 2013
================================================= =

Typhoon "HUANING" maintained its intensity as it moves closer to Taiwan-Batanes Area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Huaning [SOULIK] (954 hPa) located at 23.0N 127.5E or 410 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gustiness up to 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal warning #2

Luzon Region
------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Signal warning #1

Luzon Region
------------
1. Calayan
2. Babuyan Group of Islands

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 4-22 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 900 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishermen specially those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Northern and Eastern Seaboards of Luzon due to big waves generated by Typhoon "HUANING".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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1502. scott39
Quoting 1501. ProgressivePulse:


Time will tell. I can tell this discussion is leading nowhere, last transmission...
Over and out.
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Quoting 1484. scott39:
Right now if 96L goes N....splat into land.


Time will tell. I can tell this discussion is leading nowhere, last transmission...
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1500. Patrap
This view shows the Area forming easily



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1499. scott39
Quoting 1497. Grothar:
Can anyone verify the estimated movement of 96L. I can't seem to find a reliable one anywhere.
I like Tropical Atlantic.com
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1498. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 1493. Tropicsweatherpr:
Radar from Taiwan shows Soulik approaching.



Link


Very dangerous storm for them ..
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1497. Grothar
Can anyone verify the estimated movement of 96L. I can't seem to find a reliable one anywhere.
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1496. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1495. 7544
Quoting 1489. scott39:
South off the tip of FL. You will see the swirl.
Quoting 1491. RTSplayer:


Wow.

That shows up as a closed low, but it'd obviously need HH or ground confirmation.


yes think u are right being so close to land maybe we will get a speacial update soon before 2 am

anyone watching the t numbers for 96L
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Quoting 1489. scott39:
South off the tip of FL. You will see the swirl.




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Radar from Taiwan shows Soulik approaching.



Link
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1492. Grothar
Two large area of convection building, one North the other South.



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Quoting 1482. Patrap:


Wow.

That shows up as a closed low, but it'd obviously need HH or ground confirmation.
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1490. Pallis
Well, we all know it is going to blow up in the morning. By 11 the Keys should be on alert from some official source. I am just officially warning them in advance.
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1489. scott39
Quoting 1480. gator23:
Im ignorant about finding LLC's where on the radar should i be looking?

South off the tip of FL. You will see the swirl.
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Quoting 1483. Eyewall07:


Ok cool.

Im a big aviation enthusiast too.
mail me ill give a number would be fun to chat
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1467. Patrap:
Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI



I take it that this shows that something passed through during the times indicated on the bottom axis?
Member Since: May 13, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
Quoting 1479. Eyewall07:


Nice.

Who did you fly for ?
just flew for fun as civilian but retired atc
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1484. scott39
Quoting 1470. ProgressivePulse:


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Right now if 96L goes N....splat into land.
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Quoting 1477. floridaT:
didnt fly commercial was atc


Ok cool.

Im a big aviation enthusiast too.
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1482. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting 1472. Bluestorm5:
replacement coming in 2014 or so...


Sigh... well what about ASCAT?
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1480. gator23
Im ignorant about finding LLC's where on the radar should i be looking?

Quoting 1466. scott39:
There she is.
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Quoting 1474. floridaT:
both


Nice.

Who did you fly for ?
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1478. 7544
movin nw hmmm could this go up the fla spine interesting dont go to bed yet
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Quoting 1471. Eyewall07:


Hey FloridaT

Did you fly military or civilian ?
didnt fly commercial was atc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link



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1475. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Quoting 1471. Eyewall07:


Hey FloridaT

Did you fly military or civilian ?
both
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Quoting 1468. DonnieBwkGA:


Cuba has always been good about letting hurricane hunters in their airspace over water.


However you know nothing about the other issue and are being an ignorant internet loudmouth. You know nothing about Cuban policy in this area.
my point is stop the dis information
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Quoting 1469. FIUStormChaser:


Where is QUICKSAT, when you need it.
replacement coming in 2014 or so...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7898
Quoting 1451. floridaT:
and quite frankly they are very good and very professional controllers


Hey FloridaT

Did you fly military or civilian ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1461. scott39:
6 hr average has 96L moving NW at 15mph.


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting 1465. Patrap:


Where is QUICKSAT, when you need it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1467. Patrap
Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1466. scott39
Quoting 1465. Patrap:
There she is.
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1465. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
Water vapour from about 30 minutes ago (Click to enlarge)



It looks like it is getting closer to having a closed circulation if you zoom in (hold ctrl and press +). Tilting your screen back a little bit also makes the image easier to see.
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Quoting 1459. ProgressivePulse:


12hr average might explain it, steering is collapsed as of this evening.


Shear is 5 to 10kts, and it is stationary over the Gulf Stream..

No matter how weak a system is, no matter it's recent history.. when a system is over the gulf stream.. you must watch it.
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1462. hydrus
A blessed night to all...and may your horse never be an ssa.
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1461. scott39
Quoting 1459. ProgressivePulse:


12hr average might explain it, steering is collapsed as of this evening.
6 hr average has 96L moving NW at 15mph.
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I'm reminded of a college friend's girlfriend who was named Chantal... It was such and on-again, off-again relationship. She could never be counted on to do what she said she was going to do, and she was forever surprising him by showing up unexpectedly. It appears she has been reincarnated as a tropical storm.
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Quoting 1452. scott39:
per Tropical Atlantic...I stand corrected...96L 12 hour average is moving NW 311 degrees at 17mph.


12hr average might explain it, steering is collapsed as of this evening.
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Quoting 1449. Hurricane1956:
In my humble opinion,this system is not going anywhere soon!! there are not any stearing currents to move this system for at least 36-48 hours,so it can easily develop just to south of South Florida and stay there for hours!.



Chantal is stuck in the sweet spot, even if nothing comes out of it, she will bring flooding rains from the Gulf Coast (indirectly) to South Carolina.
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This is a very tough forecast. The center is near the FL straits but steering currents are non-existent based on a map posted on the previous page.
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1456. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1455. MrMixon
I just took this picture about 20 minutes ago:


(Nederland, Colorado)

This thing is booming towards us from the south... fingers crossed for some rain...




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Quoting 1447. Patrap:


"Patrap i think she has found her mojo."

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the 850mb vorticity has become a little more elongated over the past 6 hours... the vort has been hugging the Cuba coast all day long... we will see what happens. looks like this thing might make the gulf, if so, the conditions appear to be a little better.
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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