Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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1553. Grothar
Quoting 1549. Bluestorm5:
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.
Quoting 1549. Bluestorm5:
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.


I saw that, too. Very odd.
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1552. Patrap
96L and 03Chantal are the same as per NRL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
1551. will40
there was a MET from Cuba on a couple of nights ago.
he said it was his first time here
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1550. Patrap
Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting 1545. Grothar:


I don't believe they have access to the internet as we. Very limited. I don't recall ever seeing someone from Cuba on any site.
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7903
1548. Msdrown
Quoting 1545. Grothar:


I don't believe they have access to the internet as we. Very limited. I don't recall ever seeing someone from Cuba on any site.


Well that sort of blows wind. What about the verdes??
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Hi Everybody,
the NHC still hasn't dropped Chantal on their floater page
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Quoting 1539. Grothar:


Thee only time I see this is when a storm is forming nearby.


Agreed. Since the coast around Boston has an average wind speed of 13mph, when the lower level clouds slowed or stopped, the air went still, and the upper levels screamed, a storm was coming - usually a Nor'easter. Most years when I was growing up we would get 5-6 big storms.
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1545. Grothar
Quoting 1537. Msdrown:
Question to anyone, there are many people on this site that live all over especially in the carib. Isn't there anyone in Cuba that can give us some real time observation like many of the rest of you do. And also what about the caper verdes?????


I don't believe they have access to the internet as we. Very limited. I don't recall ever seeing someone from Cuba on any site.
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/anim16wv.h tml

good view here
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Quoting 1540. ProgressivePulse:


Here?



Pretty much dead on right over the low-level vort maximum as analyzed by the CIMSS.
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1542. Grothar
Quoting 1532. ProgressivePulse:


And why I was questioning the 18 or 15mph. I was outside having a smoke 30 min ago, went straight up. The steering has collapsed.


Aw, P. You just broke my heart (again) I can't picture you for a smoking guy.

It is really strange along the cost. Truly, not a single movement and the clouds are racing south. How is it by you?
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Quoting 1538. Patrap:


Be tomorrow b4 the rain starts - if it starts. Everytime I'm sure it will, it doesn't. Adopting a wait and see attitude.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting 1536. cchsweatherman:
Just in looking at the very last images of many satellite loops, it appears as if a convective burst is setting to kick off over what may be the developing low level circulation just off the north-central coast of Cuba within the coming hours.


Here?

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1539. Grothar
Quoting 1531. JustDucky251:


Looks like you got a ULL with a LLC (lower level calm)!

Used to get those up in the Boston area. Upper clouds would be screaming but nothing on the ground.


Thee only time I see this is when a storm is forming nearby.
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1538. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
1537. Msdrown
Question to anyone, there are many people on this site that live all over especially in the carib. Isn't there anyone in Cuba that can give us some real time observation like many of the rest of you do. And also what about the caper verdes?????
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Just in looking at the very last images of many satellite loops, it appears as if a convective burst is setting to kick off over what may be the developing low level circulation just off the north-central coast of Cuba within the coming hours.
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1535. will40
wondering why WU doesnt have 96L listed?
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Honestly not impressed by 96L. This storm remind me of Emily 2011 (gosh I hate that storm).
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7903
It's becoming extremely serious now...

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1139 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

VAC059-107-153-120545-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0059.000000T0000Z-130712T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PRINCE WILLIAM VA-LOUDOUN VA-FAIRFAX VA-
1139 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN AND NORTHWESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM COUNTIES...

AT 1131 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED
FLASH FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY RAIN. DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 10 PM. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.


LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ARCOLA...BULL
RUN...CENTREVILLE...CHANTILLY...COUNTRYSIDE...DUL LES INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...GREAT FALLS...HAYMARKET...HERNDON...RESTON AND SOUTH
RIDING.

AT 1115 PM EDT...FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON BRADDOCK ROAD NEAR
OLD LEE ROAD...NATIONAL DRIVE NEAR AIRLINE PARKWAY...AND OLD OX ROAD
NEAR ROCK HILL RD.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3906 7739 3906 7733 3905 7729 3903 7727
3903 7725 3902 7725 3888 7735 3872 7758
3878 7768 3880 7769 3907 7744

$$

JRK
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Quoting 1526. Grothar:
There really is not a single leaf moving in FLL. The upper clouds are racing from North to South. Looks like something really wants to form south of us.


And why I was questioning the 18 or 15mph. I was outside having a smoke 30 min ago, went straight up. The steering has collapsed.
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Quoting 1526. Grothar:
There really is not a single leaf moving in FLL. The upper clouds are racing from North to South. Looks like something really wants to form south of us.


Looks like you got a ULL with a LLC (lower level calm)!

Used to get those up in the Boston area. Upper clouds would be screaming but nothing on the ground.
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Quoting 1524. weatherbow:
Pretty big flash flooding threat beginning to take place in the Baltimore/DC metros. Rain is expanding quickly towards southern Baltimore suburbs and northern and western Washington suburbs. Some areas reporting over 6 inches of water in the last few hours.



^ Flash Flood Warnings are in the dark red color


Im Right in the middle of that right now..
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Latest water vapour image (Click to enlarge)



Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
1528. Grothar
Quoting 1522. floridaT:
i was on marco island beach 5th floor for wilma . never forget it


I was in Fort Lauderdale 1st Floor screaming my guts out.
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Quoting 1521. cchsweatherman:
Given trends in satellite and radar imagery tonight as well as vorticity analysis, I'd suspect that there may need to be an upgrade to a High chance for re-development with the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal when the 2AM EST TWO gets issued.




Steering is weak aswell.
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1526. Grothar
There really is not a single leaf moving in FLL. The upper clouds are racing from North to South. Looks like something really wants to form south of us.
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Hey, I know you're one of the few around here who likes to track W Pac typhoons, so I have a question for you :)
A buddy of mine in very southern Taiwan, any idea what he can expect from this beast?

Quoting 1505. HadesGodWyvern:
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Pretty big flash flooding threat beginning to take place in the Baltimore/DC metros. Rain is expanding quickly towards southern Baltimore suburbs and northern and western Washington suburbs. Some areas reporting over 6 inches of water in the last few hours.



^ Flash Flood Warnings are in the dark red color
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I am seeing some very big thunderstorms with a lot of very heavy rain and a lot of lightning in Herndon, VA. Flash Flood Warnings are everywhere in Northern Virginia.


Everyone in the area stay safe. Some flash flooding is already. Being reported west of DC.
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Quoting 1518. Grothar:


And Wilma. She actually got stronger.
i was on marco island beach 5th floor for wilma . never forget it
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Given trends in satellite and radar imagery tonight as well as vorticity analysis, I'd suspect that there may need to be an upgrade to a High chance for re-development with the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal when the 2AM EST TWO gets issued.
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CIMSS paints a completely different picture.

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Quoting 1515. tornadodude:
My friend David just got this shot from his apartment complex, pretty awesome

OUTSTANDING
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1518. Grothar
Quoting 1507. floridaT:
remember so fl overland dosnt slow down development remember katrina?


And Wilma. She actually got stronger.
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Quoting 1514. Patrap:
All the weather/mojo is in the Straits and the Atlantic tonight.



i may need to stay up for this
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1516. Grothar
Quoting 1506. Tropicsweatherpr:


LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 15KT


Thanks Trop!
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My friend David just got this shot from his apartment complex, pretty awesome

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1514. Patrap
All the weather/mojo is in the Straits and the Atlantic tonight.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting 1501. ProgressivePulse:


Time will tell. I can tell this discussion is leading nowhere, last transmission...


Well at the current moment it appears that the LLC/ULL/MLC is stationary and is in the process of working down to the surface/ or almost there.

It has time.

It is in weak steering, and it is certainly using the gulf stream.

To make matters even more confusing, the "other" part of the wave will need to be watched in the Gulf Of Mexico for further development aswell.
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1512. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 1510. 7544:


yep yep


there's a lot of warm water in the glades ..
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1511. 7544
so its stall or moving nw tia
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1510. 7544
Quoting 1507. floridaT:
remember so fl overland dosnt slow down development remember katrina?


yep yep
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1509. Grothar
Quoting 1499. scott39:
I like Tropical Atlantic.com


Thanks. I'll look into it
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1508. Grothar
Quoting 1500. Patrap:
This view shows the Area forming easily






It is very calm and quiet outside. Not a breeze or anything.
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Quoting 1495. 7544:


yes think u are right being so close to land maybe we will get a speacial update soon before 2 am

anyone watching the t numbers for 96L
remember so fl overland dosnt slow down development remember katrina?
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Quoting 1497. Grothar:
Can anyone verify the estimated movement of 96L. I can't seem to find a reliable one anywhere.


LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
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1505. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
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1504. 7544
anyone think this 96L has a shot to become a td before reachin land ?
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1503. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON HUANING
11:00 AM PhST July 12 2013
================================================= =

Typhoon "HUANING" maintained its intensity as it moves closer to Taiwan-Batanes Area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Huaning [SOULIK] (954 hPa) located at 23.0N 127.5E or 410 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gustiness up to 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal warning #2

Luzon Region
------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Signal warning #1

Luzon Region
------------
1. Calayan
2. Babuyan Group of Islands

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 4-22 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 900 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishermen specially those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Northern and Eastern Seaboards of Luzon due to big waves generated by Typhoon "HUANING".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.