Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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You can just about see the circulation if you zoom in and look at the clouds off the north coast of Cuba, the ones closer to Florida (tilt screen back too). The ULL seems to be getting closer, so if both were to converge on the same spot, the system would likely intensify quickly, especially given that the ULL did have some mid level circulation/was trying to work its way down.

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1602. Dakster


Has that - we're about get slammed with wind and rain feeling don't it?
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1601. EricSFL

Not much going on right now according to radar.
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1600. Dakster
Quoting 1598. EricSFL:
Hi bloggers. Has anyone noticed the NHC loops are out of time / not updating accordingly? They've been like this for about two days now.


yes - they have been having some issues. Some browsers they just flicker or don't show anything.
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Quoting 1590. ProgressivePulse:


Well here it is clear skies with no wind so not really yet. Your low has been skating the N coast of Cuba from the Windward passage, you know that right? Looks to be the mark.


Observations of mine in Palmetto Bay/ Perrine, Florida

- located a few blocks from Biscayne Bay, on US 1, at this time of night, their is typically a breeze, however tonight the air is still

- Alot of bushes and tree's near by, but i do not hear any of the typical cricket or animal noise outside.

- Palm tree branches are very still, as i said, typically on any night, they are at least swaying a little bit.

- Sky above me is clear, but i can see clouds to the east and Southeast.
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1598. EricSFL
Hi bloggers. Has anyone noticed the NHC loops are out of time / not updating accordingly? They've been like this for about two days now.
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1597. scott39
Quoting 1592. CosmicEvents:
I 'm trying to stop too, but I smoke an occasional cigarrette, and sometimes more. Some doctors say it helps overall in my case,,,we'll see, for now I'm dubeous, and usually a little hungry.
E-cig comes in many flavors. Kill two birds with one stone.
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Brilliant.
Quoting 1574. CosmicEvents:
I know a couple of definitions, but I question whether either of them are right.

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Quoting 1581. Grothar:


LOL. You never fail me Cos. How you been?
I've been ok. Obviously thinking of you in recent months. Glad to see you back in the comfort of home.
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Quoting 1590. ProgressivePulse:


Well here it is clear skies with no wind so not really yet. Your low has been skating the N coast of Cuba from the Windward passage, you know that right? Looks to be the mark.


Same here wet and breezy tommoro in SFL
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I 'm trying to stop too, but I smoke an occasional cigarrette, and sometimes more. Some doctors say it helps overall in my case,,,we'll see, for now I'm dubeous, and usually a little hungry.
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1591. will40
Quoting 1588. FIUStormChaser:
meanwhile in the Mid-Atlantic.....





yes and more to come im affraid
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Quoting 1580. Grothar:


I know it's difficult to stop. I had a cigarette once. It does look strange out, doesn't it.


Well here it is clear skies with no wind so not really yet. Your low has been skating the N coast of Cuba from the Windward passage, you know that right? Looks to be the mark.
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1589. Dakster
Quoting 1586. Grothar:


Stay dry Dakman! Nite everyone.


You too. Goodnight!
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meanwhile in the Mid-Atlantic.....



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Quoting 1568. cchsweatherman:
According to observations reported from surface stations to Wunderground via the Wundermap over the Bahamas and from Cuba, albeit sparse in availability, there are indications that a possible surface circulation and maybe even closed may be taking shape aligning with the low-level vorticity maximum analyzed by the CIMSS as shown in previous posts.


Interesting! It was getting closer to being closed an hour or so ago, but convection started popping up above it, so it's difficult to see now.
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1586. Grothar
Quoting 1582. Dakster:


How friendly?

Looks like South Florida is going to get some wind and rain.


Stay dry Dakman! Nite everyone.
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Quoting 1572. ProgressivePulse:
I meant 2 days, FIU, lol.


Really? 2 days to just sit over that water?
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Quoting 1571. wxgeek723:
Would advisories be reinitiated on Chantal or...?


They would be reinitiated on Chantal.
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Taiwan evacuates 2,000 tourists as super-typhoon looms Posted on July 11, 2013

July 11, 2013 – TAIWAN - The typhoon, packing gusts of up to 227 kilometers (140 miles) per hour, was 960 kilometers east of the island’s southernmost tip as of 0300 GMT, Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau said. Soulik is moving west-northwest towards Taiwan at about 22 kilometers per hour and could narrowly skip or make landfall in the north of the island sometime between late Friday and Saturday morning, the bureau said. “The public must heighten their vigilance as the typhoon will certainly bring strong winds and heavy rains,” a weather forecaster told AFP. Authorities on Thursday evacuated 2,300 tourists from Green Island, off the southeastern city of Taitung, and issued a warning to ships sailing north and east off Taiwan to take special precaution. The Hong Kong Observatory has classified Soulik as a “super typhoon” on its website, while Taiwan’s weather bureau listed it as a “strong typhoon.” On the Chinese mainland, meteorological authorities maintained an orange alert—the second-highest level—for Soulik on Thursday, Beijing’s official Xinhua news agency reported. After hitting or passing Taiwan on Saturday Soulik is expected to head towards the coastal provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian, bringing “extremely strong” winds, it cited the National Meteorological Center as saying. In August 2009 Typhoon Morakot killed about 600 people in Taiwan, most of them buried in huge landslides in the south, in one of the worst natural disasters to lash the island in recent years. -Physics

Link
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1582. Dakster
Quoting 1556. Grothar:


Oh, we're friendly with each other.


How friendly?

Looks like South Florida is going to get some wind and rain.
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1581. Grothar
Quoting 1574. CosmicEvents:
I know a couple of definitions, but I question whether either of them are right.


LOL. You never fail me Cos. How you been?
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1580. Grothar
Quoting 1563. ProgressivePulse:


Quitting soon Gro, ugg! Clear Skies here in Jupiter, dead calm.


I know it's difficult to stop. I had a cigarette once. It does look strange out, doesn't it.
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1579. will40
Quoting 1577. Patrap:
NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

Development Team
NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.
2013 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
green ball icon96L.INVEST kml icon
green ball icon03L.CHANTAL kml icon



did you see the track they showed there Pat?
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1577. Patrap
NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

Development Team
NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.
2013 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
green ball icon96L.INVEST kml icon
green ball icon03L.CHANTAL kml icon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
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1575. scott39
Quoting 1561. Grothar:
Anyone know the definition of dubious?
Unsure of outcome or dishonest or untrustworthy.
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Quoting 1561. Grothar:
Anyone know the definition of dubious?
I know a couple of definitions, but I question whether either of them are right.
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NASA’s Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX), a $169 million spacecraft has discovered what many scientists surmised; the sun has a comet-like tail. The less than 20 foot square craft, displayed the tail which couldn’t be seen before because it doesn’t shine, nor does it reflect light. Is the sun a comet?

No, it is a star. Both stars and comets have tails, which can usually be seen through a telescope. Our sun was not that easy.

“By examining the neutral atoms, IBEX made the first observations of the heliotail. Many models have suggested the heliotail might be like this or like that, but we’ve had no observations. We always drew pictures where the tail of the heliosphere just disappears off the page, since we couldn’t even speculate about what it really looked like,” said David McComas, lead author on the research and principal investigator for IBEX at Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas.

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I meant 2 days, FIU, lol.
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Would advisories be reinitiated on Chantal or...?
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i was checking the buoys too near the keys most are not functioning. not much wind i found and one near marathon had rising pressure.
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1569. Gaea
Quoting 1561. Grothar:
Anyone know the definition of dubious?

I might, or might not... and I may tell you, or just keep it to myself.
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According to observations reported from surface stations to Wunderground via the Wundermap over the Bahamas and from Cuba, albeit sparse in availability, there are indications that a possible surface circulation and maybe even closed may be taking shape aligning with the low-level vorticity maximum analyzed by the CIMSS as shown in previous posts.
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Quoting 1562. Grothar:


Look under the couch. That is where they usually go.


Will do, maybe that fish took my Tv remote all along.
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1566. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1565. Msdrown
Quoting 1556. Grothar:


Oh, we're friendly with each other.


Not sure what that means but if it was negative I didn't mean to be offensive at all. Just trying to get good infor.
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According to Levi...that southern flank in the Carib...will need to be watched once its in the GOM.
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Quoting 1542. Grothar:


Aw, P. You just broke my heart (again) I can't picture you for a smoking guy.

It is really strange along the cost. Truly, not a single movement and the clouds are racing south. How is it by you?


Quitting soon Gro, ugg! Clear Skies here in Jupiter, dead calm.
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1562. Grothar
Quoting 1558. FIUStormChaser:
Checking in Here in Palmetto Bay/South Miami, looking outside at my Palm Tree's, the branches aren't even moving at all, they are dead still.

And my pet fish is hiding.... Lol


Look under the couch. That is where they usually go.
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1561. Grothar
Anyone know the definition of dubious?
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1560. will40
Quoting 1557. Msdrown:


How can we get a hold of this guy?? And maybe get him more frequent since so much stuff runs over cuba???


it was his first time here. haven't seen him since
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Guys, that swirl is not your center its on the north coast of cuba
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Checking in Here in Palmetto Bay/South Miami, looking outside at my Palm Tree's, the branches aren't even moving at all, they are dead still.

And my pet fish is hiding..
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1557. Msdrown
Quoting 1549. Bluestorm5:
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.


How can we get a hold of this guy?? And maybe get him more frequent since so much stuff runs over cuba???
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1556. Grothar
Quoting 1548. Msdrown:


Well that sort of blows wind. What about the verdes??


Oh, we're friendly with each other.
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1555. will40
Quoting 1552. Patrap:
96L and 03Chantal are the same as per NRL
yes but did you see the track they showed? it sure wasnt 96L lol
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1554. 7544
Quoting 1544. Funication:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/anim16wv.h tml

good view here


hi is there a rainbow link like this my ssd link is still blinking cant get it to fully load thanks
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1553. Grothar
Quoting 1549. Bluestorm5:
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.
Quoting 1549. Bluestorm5:
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.


I saw that, too. Very odd.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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