Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 1607. cchsweatherman:
Even though the observation comes in and out, each time the station north of Moron, Cuba has reported, it has reported with a steady west wind for over the past hour now indicative of the possibility of a closed surface circulation.


I had noticed earlier on, around 7pm ET, that some locations in eastern Cuba (Santiago de Cuba and Holquin) were reporting W winds 5-15 mph, pressures were still high 1015-1017 mb
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Looks to be trying to wrap around a center between the southern tip of Florida and Cuba. This has a ways to to be even a depression.



Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1789
Night, everyone. Will check on 96L in the morning. My hunch is that whatever low level center is around tries to locate further east towards the intense convection. This should be easier to do considering steering currents are weak.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting 1637. all4hurricanes:

You in Fairfax too? I don't think I have ever seen it line up like this except for maybe Lee in 2011


Yeah im in the Centrevile/Clifton area.. Lee was sure something
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1649. will40
we will know at 2 i guess
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1648. Dakster
Quoting 1642. ExumaMET:


I've been through 3 hurricanes; Lili, Irene and Sandy. Those thunderstorms that rolled through earlier tonight were every bit as vicious as the ones in those storms (minus the wind, naturally). Lili was the worst.


That's not good then.
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1647. will40
Quoting 1645. sar2401:

Sorry, I forgot that the Navy site did have it. I know the Navy site and the NHC don't always match up perfectly, so I'm still waiting for something direct from the NHC.


yes sometimes they jump the gun so to speek
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I think the flash flooding situations in southern South Carolina and the DC area are worth watching as well. It is still raining in the most heavily affected areas when it comes to flash flooding in both regions. Numerous water rescues are occurring as well.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1240 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...


* UNTIL 645 AM EDT

* AT 1236 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING MUCH OF ALLENDALE
COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED...
CONDITIONS FAVOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
REDEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
ONGOING AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE FLOODING
THAT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 645 AM EDT. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION.

* FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND...
ULMER...SYCAMORE...ALLENDALE...MARTIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE MAJORITY OF FLOOD DEATHS ARE DUE TO PEOPLE DRIVING INTO WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO
SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. EVEN MODERN SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES ARE
VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. TO AVOID THE RISK OF DEATH...FIND AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE IF THE ROAD IS FLOODED.

TO REPORT FLOODING...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
CHARLESTON TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024.

&&
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1645. sar2401
Quoting will40:



Navy Site has it

Sorry, I forgot that the Navy site did have it. I know the Navy site and the NHC don't always match up perfectly, so I'm still waiting for something direct from the NHC.
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1644. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How accurate is this?

Frankly, without it being flown, I don't think it's possible to say. I don't see a surface low with a closed circulation, but that's just looking at satellite photos and the few observation stations that are available. I haven't seen a flight plan for Friday - has anyone else? I'd be amazed if the didn't fly this one, just to give some certainty to what may or may not be happening.
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1643. will40
Quoting 1640. sar2401:

I can't find anything on the NHC (or any other website) that says that 96L for 2013 actually has been assigned as an invest. It appears as an AOI on the NHC front page but it doesn't appear to be a normal invest. I'm probably wrong about this, and someone can correct me if I am. If it is, in fact, an "official" invest, it should get the next name up the line if it develops into a tropical cyclone. That would be Dorian. However, like most of us, I'm totally confused on the entire Chantal/remnantlow/AOI/possible invest evolution at this point. This is one of the weirder storms I remember tracking.



Navy Site has it
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Quoting 1630. Dakster:


Apparently you have never been there during a hurricane then. Consider yourself lucky.


I've been through 3 hurricanes; Lili, Irene and Sandy. Those thunderstorms that rolled through earlier tonight were every bit as vicious as the ones in those storms (minus the wind, naturally). Lili was the worst.
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Assuming that the NHC is conservative.. 40-50% at 2am.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
1640. sar2401
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Ok guys, if someone can explain this to me.

If the system north of Cuba is reinitiated as Chantal, why they renamed it 96L and then say with a clarification note that 96L and 03L are the same ?

I thought that if you have an Invest whatever number it is, out there, if this Invest becomes better organized then you give this Invest one of the names on the list but not a name already used on that season.

I can't find anything on the NHC (or any other website) that says that 96L for 2013 actually has been assigned as an invest. It appears as an AOI on the NHC front page but it doesn't appear to be a normal invest. I'm probably wrong about this, and someone can correct me if I am. If it is, in fact, an "official" invest, it should get the next name up the line if it develops into a tropical cyclone. That would be Dorian. However, like most of us, I'm totally confused on the entire Chantal/remnantlow/AOI/possible invest evolution at this point. This is one of the weirder storms I remember tracking.
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1639. Grothar
Quoting 1635. TropicalAnalystwx13:

How accurate is this?


Possible, even though the big flare-up is to the east and looks more threatening, a low could be forming below Andros Island. All the clouds here are moving North to South.

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Quoting 1635. TropicalAnalystwx13:

How accurate is this?


Seems to confirm well with actual land observations from the time; difficult to cross reference with ocean observations though since I don't have access to those.
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Quoting 1604. HurricaneWeatherDan:
Well i am sitting in my home just west of Washington DC and the rain will not stop, been like this for a couple of hours and we've picked up about 2 inches in just about 65 mins

You in Fairfax too? I don't think I have ever seen it line up like this except for maybe Lee in 2011
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1636. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 1629. Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT-B Coastal


need some winds on the west side ..
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Quoting 1633. cchsweatherman:
According to surface wind analysis from the nowCOAST satellite service done at around 11 PM tonight, there may be a tightly closed surface circulation with at least tropical depression force winds just south of Andros Island.


How accurate is this?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
1634. Dakster
Quoting 1632. Grothar:


I didn't see any birds at all today. Just a few crows.


That's good, some people here will need those for later.
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According to surface wind analysis from the nowCOAST satellite service done at around 11 PM tonight, there may be a tightly closed surface circulation with at least tropical depression force winds just south of Andros Island.

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1632. Grothar
Quoting 1606. Dakster:


Can you explain where all of the birds went, then?


I didn't see any birds at all today. Just a few crows.
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1631. AztecCe
Where are Chantal's remains headed now? Still florida?
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1630. Dakster
Quoting 1626. ExumaMET:
Here in the Central Bahamas. Just went through a few hours of some of the nastiest thunderstorms I've ever experienced. We had winds approaching TS force.


Apparently you have never been there during a hurricane then. Consider yourself lucky.
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1629. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT-B Coastal
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Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
1627. Grothar
Quoting 1620. StormJunkie:
Where ever/if a center forms, it would be a reformation seeing as we haven't really had a center since declassification...imho



Your image is more threatening looking than mine.


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Here in the Central Bahamas. Just went through a few hours of some of the nastiest thunderstorms I've ever experienced. We had winds approaching TS force.
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Quoting 1620. StormJunkie:
Where ever/if a center forms, it would be a reformations seeing as we haven't really had a center since declassification...imho



It's going to feel a tug from that intense convection associated with the old mid-level center. Never know, the mid-level center might win out.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting 1612. StormJunkie:
So no one is leaning toward it being further E? In the central/Eastern Bahamas?



Not discounting, just going on the latest obs and latest TWD.



THERE IS
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FORM 26N73W TO 22N76W AND
A STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND TO CENTRAL CUBA.
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1623. will40
its a weird situation to say the least. WU usually always lists invest on the active storm page but nothing there for 96L
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1622. Skyepony (Mod)
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1621. Grothar
Quoting 1590. ProgressivePulse:


Well here it is clear skies with no wind so not really yet. Your low has been skating the N coast of Cuba from the Windward passage, you know that right? Looks to be the mark.


I've been saying it for 6 days. It looks very threatening.
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Where ever/if a center forms, it would be a reformation seeing as we haven't really had a center since declassification...imho

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Ok guys, if someone can explain this to me.

If the system north of Cuba is reinitiated as Chantal, why they renamed it 96L and then say with a clarification note that 96L and 03L are the same ?

I thought that if you have an Invest whatever number it is, out there, if this Invest becomes better organized then you give this Invest one of the names on the list but not a name already used on that season.
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Junkie thats what it looks like to me
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1617. Skyepony (Mod)
Soulik~ Click pic for loop>

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1616. scott39
Quoting 1612. StormJunkie:
So no one is leaning toward it being further E? In the central/Eastern Bahamas?

A center reformation is possible there.
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1615. Kumo
Quoting 1553. Grothar:


I saw that, too. Very odd.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_ in_Cuba#Circumventing_censorship

It's possible although very risky.
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Quoting 1612. StormJunkie:
So no one is leaning toward it being further E? In the central/Eastern Bahamas?



Not seeing any surface observations nor low level vorticity indicative of the focus being in the Central/Eastern Bahamas despite the deep convection ongoing there.
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1613. Dakster
Quoting 1607. cchsweatherman:
Even though the observation comes in and out, each time the station north of Moron, Cuba has reported, it has reported with a steady west wind for over the past hour now indicative of the possibility of a closed surface circulation.


Moron? Is that where Fidel is from?
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So no one is leaning toward it being further E? In the central/Eastern Bahamas?

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Quoting 1608. ProgressivePulse:
I wonder if we are trying to accelerate Chantal to quickly. The primo conditions were to develop 24-36hrs before landfall, which was "supposed to be Saturday". And if the area off the coast of Cuba is the one to develop we are back to ground zero basically?



wonder is the NHC knows about this
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1610. EricSFL
Quoting 1602. Dakster:


Has that - we're about get slammed with wind and rain feeling don't it?

Not a single leaf moving right now. lol But it felt oppressively hot and humid this afternoon though.
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I think I've figured out the most probable forecast for the next 72-144 hours on Chantal's remains or remnants.
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I wonder if we are trying to accelerate Chantal to quickly. The primo conditions were to develop 24-36hrs before landfall, which was "supposed to be Saturday". And if the area off the coast of Cuba is the one to develop we are back to ground zero basically?
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Even though the observation comes in and out, each time the station north of Moron, Cuba has reported, it has reported with a steady west wind for over the past hour now indicative of the possibility of a closed surface circulation.
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1606. Dakster
Quoting 1605. chrisdscane:




Thanks for the update lol but the center is still down by Cuba tommoro is out big weather day :)



Friday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%


Can you explain where all of the birds went, then?
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Quoting 1599. FIUStormChaser:


Observations of mine in Palmetto Bay/ Perrine, Florida

- located a few blocks from Biscayne Bay, on US 1, at this time of night, their is typically a breeze, however tonight the air is still

- Alot of bushes and tree's near by, but i do not hear any of the typical cricket or animal noise outside.

- Palm tree branches are very still, as i said, typically on any night, they are at least swaying a little bit.

- Sky above me is clear, but i can see clouds to the east and Southeast.




Thanks for the update lol but the center is still down by Cuba tommoro is out big weather day :)



Friday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%
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Well i am sitting in my home just west of Washington DC and the rain will not stop, been like this for a couple of hours and we've picked up about 2 inches in just about 65 mins
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Latest Water Vapour image



You can just about see the circulation if you zoom in and look at the clouds off the north coast of Cuba, the ones closer to Florida (tilt screen back too). The ULL seems to be getting closer, so if both were to converge on the same spot, the system would likely intensify quickly, especially given that the ULL did have some mid level circulation/was trying to work its way down.

Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 552

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.