Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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1703. Dakster
Quoting 1701. will40:
hopefully the Discussion will give more information


Maybe. But wouldn't count on it.
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Quoting 1699. KoritheMan:
Ahem.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 120514
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Congratulations Kori, How does it feel to post the 2AM TWO First? lol

Goodnight everyone.
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1701. will40
hopefully the Discussion will give more information
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1700. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.

Sorry, I'm just catching up here after a busy day. I responded to him in a friendly way but I'm somewhat "dubious" that he was real. I was in Cuba four years ago diving. As an US citizen, it has to be done in kind of a sly manner, since no individual US citizen is allowed to travel to Cuba directly. I went with a tour group through Mexico. Your passport doesn't get stamped in or out of Cuba, and the Mexican "tour group" provided paperwork which showed I spent the entire two weeks in Playa del Carmen.

I was in both Havana and Santiago for a few days. If you stay in a tourista hotel, meaning one that only caters to non-Cubans, there is internet access. You can't just stroll in off the street, however. You get an ID card (kind of like a visa) when you arrive in Cuba, and your passport is held by your hotel or the tour group manager. There's no wi-fi. You use the computers in the business center, and there's no doubt in my mind that your use is monitored. The computers were fairly new Chinese Saiweida brand desktops with 21 inch flat screen monitors running Windows 7. There were something like seven or eight different language options on the computer. I was able to access WU and some financial sites with no problem. Yahoo was clearly censored, with some stories that were just blank spaces on the front page. I tried to access one anti-Castro site I knew of and got nothing but 404 errors. Strangely, the computer locked up shortly after that and the person in charge said there was a "technical" issue with that computer. There was a "technical" issue with every computer I used in that hotel after that, using my hotel supplied user ID, so trying to go to an anti-Castro site while in Cuba was probably not a good idea. :-)

There were a few cyber cafes but I saw no evidence of any wi-fi-fi hotspots anywhere in Havana. There may be ones, but I never saw one or even an ad for one. The cyber cafes I did see were for Cubans, and a sign on the door of one said access was restricted to Cuban citizens only. From what I was told by Cubans, access at these cyber cafes are mostly for e-mail and web site access is tightly controlled. The cost is really prohibitive. The sign I saw was the equivalent of $1.50 per hour. That may not sound too bad, but the average Cuban only makes the equivalent of US$20 a month. I'm dubious about our supposed Cuban met because I know that citizen access to the internet is controlled, and it seems even more unlikely to me that a Cuban government employee would be allowed to post at "civilian" web site like WU. Just my use of the term "anti-Castro", in my opinion, would be caught by government filters, and there's only one provider. Posting at work seems unlikely and, even if he was one of the lucky few to have a personal computer, I doubt he'd be able to post here. I hope I'm wrong, since it would be nice to have a Cuban met with us, but I really, really doubt he was for real.
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Ahem.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 120514
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Much ado about nothing. Chantal trough is forming alot of convection and that is a positive sign, but its not quite far north and west enough yet to redevelop.


Two more days I think, and its either dead and gone or it has some relevant form of surface circulation by then.


Time will tell after that where it goes. There is a stalling trough that may chuck it out to the east or north but I have a feeling this general area of disturbed weather will crawl its way through the straights and into the GOM by Sunday night or Monday morning.


From there we will see where it goes. If the trough dips into the GOM it would cause the system to turn northeast but it would also cause significant interaction, and depending on the level of development could cause it to redevelop faster, or cause its development to be interfered with.


I am honestly surprised the trough of chantal is doing so well, I thought this would be long over by now.


The saga continues.
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1697. will40
Quoting 1696. WeatherfanPR:
2am TWO = COPY N PASTE


Discussion not out yet tho
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2am TWO = COPY N PASTE
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1695. Dakster
Quoting 1690. EricSFL:


I'm no Micky Arison...


I was hoping...
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Quoting 1688. Dakster:


Yes, how do you know he doesn't own it, though?
That ship belongs to the biggest cruise company in the world, lol.
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1693. will40
Tropical Outlook at 2:00 still list 30%
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Quoting 1680. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Surprised this hasn't been posted but the ULL that is supposed to work its way west from the Atlantic towards FL. well this is what the CMC does with it.



Not gonna happen. The GFS keeps a ton of zonal flow over the Gulf for the next seven days.
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Quoting 1629. Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT-B Coastal



23.5N 78.0W?
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1690. EricSFL
Quoting 1688. Dakster:


Yes, how do you know he doesn't own it, though?


I'm no Micky Arison...
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Quoting 1680. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Surprised this hasn't been posted but the ULL that is supposed to work its way west from the Atlantic towards FL. well this is what the CMC does with it.


Keep in mind that the CMC has done this several times already this season... Wouldn't expect it to happen, something to keep an eye, but nothing telling that it would become a reality.
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1688. Dakster
Quoting 1686. Bluestorm5:


Look like a cruise boat, lol :)


Yes, how do you know he doesn't own it, though?
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1687. EricSFL
Quoting 1685. Dakster:
EricSFL - Is that your boat in your avatar?

What do you do with it during a storm?

Lol I wish! I'd hunker down in it any day!
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Quoting 1685. Dakster:
EricSFL - Is that your boat in your avatar?

What do you do with it during a storm?


Look like a cruise boat, lol :)
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1685. Dakster
EricSFL - Is that your boat in your avatar?

What do you do with it during a storm?
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1684. will40
make that closer to GA coast
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1683. EricSFL
Quoting 1682. ecflweatherfan:


Thanks a million! :-)


You're welcome.
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Quoting 1677. EricSFL:


You can find updated satellite loops from Colorado State RAMMB here:Link


Thanks a million! :-)
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Quoting 1678. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, lol. That explains it.

I need to go to bed.


Night TA3, 2pm tomorrow :-)
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Surprised this hasn't been posted but the ULL that is supposed to work its way west from the Atlantic towards FL. well this is what the CMC does with it.

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1679. will40
looks like they be off SC coast when they are on station lol
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Quoting 1674. ProgressivePulse:


That is yesterday's POD.

Oh, lol. That explains it.

I need to go to bed.
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1677. EricSFL
Quoting 1671. ecflweatherfan:
Any ideas when the satellite eclipse is over? No recent images (well, since 0145Z).


You can find updated satellite loops from Colorado State RAMMB here: Link
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I just want to know how they are expecting this to be at

D. 28.5N 77.5W

by 2pm tomorrow?
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Quoting Skyepony:
Soulik~ Click pic for loop>



Taiwan Radar...


Link

Miyakojima/Yaeyama



Link

Ishigakijima Obs....
985.7mb
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Quoting 1670. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Changed again, lol.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72....CHANGED
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 11/1500Z
D. 20.0N 79.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


That is yesterday's POD.
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hmmmmmm

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
1672. will40
Quoting 1669. ProgressivePulse:
18Z is 2pm EDT.


yes they be on station at 1700
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Any ideas when the satellite eclipse is over? No recent images (well, since 0145Z).
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Changed again, lol.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72....CHANGED
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 11/1500Z
D. 20.0N 79.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Just wondering why this data point is between Jamaica and Cuba.
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18Z is 2pm EDT.
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Quoting 1666. ProgressivePulse:


Take off is 15:30 which is 11:30est.
Even better.
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1667. will40
Quoting 1664. Bluestorm5:
1 pm EST (err, EDT since it's daylight saving here in USA).

NOAA's Zulu time chart


yes you right i was looking at wrong POTD
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Quoting 1657. Bluestorm5:


So.... 1 pm EST?


Take off is 15:30 which is 11:30est.
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Quoting 1655. Msdrown:


I thought I saw Patrap post that they canceled it.


They cancelled an earlier in the day scheduled flight and rescheduled for the time that I posted.
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Quoting 1660. will40:


2:00 it looks like
1 pm EST (err, EDT since it's daylight saving here in USA).

NOAA's Zulu time chart
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1663. AztecCe
is chantal still going to florida?
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1662. EricSFL
Buoy observations from Fowey Rocks and Molasses Reef do not support a North wind, assuming a circulation might be forming to the southeast. Pressures are rising also:

Station FWYF1
NDBC
Location: 25.591N 80.097W
Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2013 04:00:00 UTC
Winds: S (180%uFFFD) at 9.9 kt gusting to 9.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.9 F
Water Temperature: 82.8 F

Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2013 04:00:00 UTC
Winds: S (180%uFFFD) at 11.1 kt gusting to 12.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.99 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.5 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F

Edit: Although they do concur with the wind maps posted by cchsweatherman.
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I post the NHC POD and look at the location of the center fixes and have to wonder that they expect this to be well north of Bahama's by 18Z tomorrow? lol...
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1660. will40
Quoting 1657. Bluestorm5:


So.... 1 pm EST?


2:00 it looks like
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1659. will40
Quoting 1655. Msdrown:


I thought I saw Patrap post that they canceled it.


no its still listed
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Looks S/SSW Of Andros.
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Quoting 1654. ProgressivePulse:

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 111552
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 11 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 12/1530Z
D. 28.5N 77.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 13/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0703A CHANTAL
C. 13/0900Z
D. 33.5N 76.5W
E. 13/1130Z TO 13/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


So.... 1 pm EST?
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More updated RTMA Surface Wind analysis via nowCOAST (as of 12 AM):

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1655. Msdrown
Quoting 1644. sar2401:

Frankly, without it being flown, I don't think it's possible to say. I don't see a surface low with a closed circulation, but that's just looking at satellite photos and the few observation stations that are available. I haven't seen a flight plan for Friday - has anyone else? I'd be amazed if the didn't fly this one, just to give some certainty to what may or may not be happening.


I thought I saw Patrap post that they canceled it.
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Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 111552
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 11 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 12/1530Z
D. 28.5N 77.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 13/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0703A CHANTAL
C. 13/0900Z
D. 33.5N 76.5W
E. 13/1130Z TO 13/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Quoting 1607. cchsweatherman:
Even though the observation comes in and out, each time the station north of Moron, Cuba has reported, it has reported with a steady west wind for over the past hour now indicative of the possibility of a closed surface circulation.


I had noticed earlier on, around 7pm ET, that some locations in eastern Cuba (Santiago de Cuba and Holquin) were reporting W winds 5-15 mph, pressures were still high 1015-1017 mb
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.