Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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1753. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:


Forms from that 1013 mb low by FL.

Wow! Forms from 1013 mb low off the north coast of Cuba and, in a little more tha three days, it has depened to a 999 mb hurricane in TX/AL somewhere. Why wopuldn't the 1014 lor that's sitting in almost the same spot as the rocket-like 990 mb low is supposed to be just deepen and become a hurricane instead of wasting all that energy. :-)

The CMC is clearly nuts again.

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Hell, Lortab? I'm up to 60mg Extended Release Morphine and 30mg I.R for breakthrough...Lortab was many years ago...lol
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And btw sar2401 thats a 999 mb hurricane.
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CHANTAL'S REMNANT

What's left of the tropical storm is now disorganized blobs of clouds and rain from just south of Cuba to the central Bahamas.

Satellite loops show a couple of centers of spin, and one of our main models shows at least a sharp tropical wave if not a "closed low"(fully circular wind circulation, characteristic of tropical depressions and storms) heading toward the coast of the Carolinas by Saturday afternoon with winds not far shy of tropical storm force (39+ mph).

The atmosphere in and around the system will have some aspects marginally supportive of development, and others working against it. The National Hurricane Center as of their latest outlook is giving the system a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm again.

Regardless, deep tropical moisture will be heading for North/South Carolina, Virginia and parts of Georgia, interacting with a non-tropical system and bringing a continued risk of flash flooding as locally heavy rain falls on top of already saturated soil.

That'll bypass Florida to the east, though models are predicting the aforementioned non-tropical system to enhance rainfall in parts of the Panhandle and at least the northern peninsula tomorrow and into the weekend.

Whether or not Chantal's remnants are able to become a tropical depression or storm again, if the onshore winds are anything like what's depicted in the aforementioned model forecast for Saturday, that'd bring increased waves and a high risk of rip currents on a summer weekend to places such as Myrtle Beach and Wrightsville Beach, in the wake of recent rip current fatalities and many rescues on the Southeast and Gulf coasts.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 48 Comments: 78175
Quoting 1746. sar2401:

Ane where is this worlds smallest 990mb hurricane suposed to come from and end up Texas and Louisiana in 7/5 day? I've got, it's a remnant of the 993 mb hurricane that was supposed to be over my house on July 4, now reborn again. Ever since everyone got all excited about the CMC being the "go-to" model after its corect calls on Andrea, it has pretty much sucked. Even a blind squirrel will eventually find a nut.


Forms from that 1013 mb low by FL.
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1748. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Time for a Ambien

There you go. An ambien, maybe a loratab, and a few good stiff drinks and you're ready for bed. :-)
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Maybe Chantals ghost will make up her mind for good on what she going to do......lord I hope so, I can only handle blob storms for so long...this storm seems like a month long and it's only been 3-4 days
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1746. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Mr. Ghost storm again??

And where is this world's smallest 990mb hurricane suposed to come from and end up Texas and Louisiana in 7.5 day? I've got, it's a remnant of the 993 mb hurricane that was supposed to be over my house on July 4, now reborn again. Ever since everyone got all excited about the CMC being the "go-to" model after its corect calls on Andrea, it has pretty much sucked. Even a blind squirrel will eventually find a nut.
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Time for a Ambien
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that wouldn"t be no fun : )
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1743. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Weather burb!

Joe, you've got to stop drinking before you post here. :-)
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Mr. Ghost storm again??
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1741. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Maybe I will be allow to travel to Cuba when I'm older... at least I'm still young enough so we'll see if Cuba resume normal relationship with USA hopefully when the communists from 1959 revolution finally dies out. You never know if the governments in this world will remain stable (including our own, sadly). Soviet collapse, Arab Spring, and many more had taught us that.

True but, when normalization does come, you'll be able to get some of the most pristine US cars from the 50's and early 60's available anywhere. The Cuban government has started importing those tiny Fiat 500's and is in negotiationa to buld a plant in Cuba. That has gotten tricker since Fiat basically owns Chrysler, but they'll find away around that. The government is subidizing prices, and the Cuban model looks like nothing you see here. Think cardboard interior door inserts and seats that look like porch swings, but aren't as comfortable. :-) The government wants to get those gas hogs off the street, since the Cubans can longer trade sugar cane ot Russia for oil at favorable rates. All those '57 Chevies are going up on blocks to be preserves, so they can sell the to US car collectors when the trade bans are lifted. Cubans look on it as their version of a 401(k). :-)
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had a Chantal sandwich....wheres the beef?
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Weather burb!
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1738. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They suck at it.

Yes, they do. Wasn't the GFS the one that got it right about wanting to kill off Chantal somewhere around Cuba, or am I thinking of another model? I've read posts here that the CMC was the most accurate, but it had hurricanes on both coasts of Florida and a hurricane going onto South Carolina or over Alabama. I can't see how the CMC was close to accurate, unless you look at one isolated run.
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Quoting 1735. sar2401:

Yes, the old crossing e-mail thing. :-) Normalizing relations with Cuba will come, but not before Castro and the rest of the members of the 1959 revolutionary clique die off. The US would actually like to normalize trade relations, for example, but Cuba refuses to do so. On one hand, Cuba is a tropical paradise. OTOH, Cuba is North Korea with palm trees. The current government exercises control of every aspect of Cuban life. My feeling was, in talking with some "regular" Cubans that were willing to talk when no government minders or other tpes of surveillance was present, is that the Communists and Castro supporters would be overwhelmingly defeated in a free election. Obviously, when you're running a dictatorship, that's not a desireable goal. :-)

The Cuban government benefits economically in some ways from it's pervasive control. One example is foreign exchange. In terms of trade, most Cuban goods go to Russia, Mexico, and some other Latin American countries. None of those currencies are considered desireable on the world market. Cuba encourages tourism by having relatively cheap prices for things like hotel rooms and dive trips, but still very much higher than any Cuban could afford to pay. When you're a tourist, there are only two currencies you can use - the US dollar and the Euro. You can only change those currencies into pesos at a very high, government contolled rate. It's illegal to change currencies except at official government exchange centers. In real life, there is thriving black market in dollar exchange carried on by street "banks".

There are two types of pesos, the normal Cuban pseo and what's called the Cuban Convertible Peso. The CCP is what tourists are required to change money into if you use a Cuban bank, and the exchange rate is 1:1, plus a 10% fee. No one in their right mind does this. You bring in as many dollars as you think you can get away with without declaring them. You then change them into normal pesos at a street bank, and the going rate was about 24 pesos to the dollar. You have to change a minimum of $300 into CCP's, and they can't be reexchanged for dollars when you leave, plus they have no value outside Cuba. Tourists are not supposed to use anything but CCP's, and there are no credit cards and very few ATM's, which only dispense CCP's. Cubans are masters at getting around the system. A typical Cuban lunch of a "mixto", a hot sandwhich made with defferent types of cold cuts on delicious Cuban bread, and then pressed and heated on a grill, alog with some chips, which might be potatoes or plantains, and an El Presidente beer or a kind of Cuban coke called a Malta would cost about $5 using CCP's. Not bad, but, as long as you can speak a little Spanish, convince the shop owner you're not an informant, and the exchange can be done discretely, the average I paid was USD$1 for the same meal, and I could have probably paid less if they accepted US coins. If you can convince a shop owner to take normal pesos, which they might do if you pplead you are out of CCP's or dollars, thw same meal would have cost me about 18 pesos, or around 75 cents. It's hard to do this with food, since they have to match up peoos to ration boooks, which all Cubans must use for food. Eeven then, some has a "cousin" with a few extra ration tickets, for a price. It's like this all over Cuba, and an estimate I read was that the underground economy is about eight times larger than the official economy.

Cubans are very friendly and like Americans. They may not like our government, but that's viewed by most Cubans as propaganda. Lord forbid if you're from south Florida, NYC, or Chicago. As soon as a Cuban find this out, he wants to find out if you know Juan, his cousin, Alberto, a high school buddy, or maybe Adriana, a long-lost niece. It's kind of hard to explain to them that most of us don't know our neighbors, let alone Alberto, :-) I enjoyed my trip to Cuba, even though I'm now a Federal criminal and will probaaly be dragged aways as soon as the NSA reads this post. :-8. It's a nice place to visit but, even with my NSA joke, I still wouldn't want to live there.

Good heavens, I've now written a Cuban travel guide. You can tell things are slow in the tropics. I have to make this weather related though, or I might get Taz's threat of the big hammer. OK, let's see...Cuba is always hot and, except then they get the occasional hurricane, living on a boat with a nice sea breeze is very pleasant.


Maybe I will be allow to travel to Cuba when I'm older... at least I'm still young enough so we'll see if Cuba resume normal relationship with USA hopefully when the communists from 1959 revolution finally dies out. You never know if the governments in this world will remain stable (including our own, sadly). Soviet collapse, Arab Spring, and many more had taught us that.
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Lets just all agree. NONE of the models are the best. They ALL need to be worked on.
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1735. sar2401
Quoting zampaz:

I wish we could somehow resolve our differences with Cuba...but I'm very ignorant about US foreign policy.
BTW sar, you have wundermail...
EDIT: NEVERMIND...I HAD WUNDERMAIL DOH!

Yes, the old crossing e-mail thing. :-) Normalizing relations with Cuba will come, but not before Castro and the rest of the members of the 1959 revolutionary clique die off. The US would actually like to normalize trade relations, for example, but Cuba refuses to do so. On one hand, Cuba is a tropical paradise. OTOH, Cuba is North Korea with palm trees. The current government exercises control of every aspect of Cuban life. My feeling was, in talking with some "regular" Cubans that were willing to talk when no government minders or other tpes of surveillance was present, is that the Communists and Castro supporters would be overwhelmingly defeated in a free election. Obviously, when you're running a dictatorship, that's not a desireable goal. :-)

The Cuban government benefits economically in some ways from it's pervasive control. One example is foreign exchange. In terms of trade, most Cuban goods go to Russia, Mexico, and some other Latin American countries. None of those currencies are considered desireable on the world market. Cuba encourages tourism by having relatively cheap prices for things like hotel rooms and dive trips, but still very much higher than any Cuban could afford to pay. When you're a tourist, there are only two currencies you can use - the US dollar and the Euro. You can only change those currencies into pesos at a very high, government contolled rate. It's illegal to change currencies except at official government exchange centers. In real life, there is thriving black market in dollar exchange carried on by street "banks".

There are two types of pesos, the normal Cuban pseo and what's called the Cuban Convertible Peso. The CCP is what tourists are required to change money into if you use a Cuban bank, and the exchange rate is 1:1, plus a 10% fee. No one in their right mind does this. You bring in as many dollars as you think you can get away with without declaring them. You then change them into normal pesos at a street bank, and the going rate was about 24 pesos to the dollar. You have to change a minimum of $300 into CCP's, and they can't be reexchanged for dollars when you leave, plus they have no value outside Cuba. Tourists are not supposed to use anything but CCP's, and there are no credit cards and very few ATM's, which only dispense CCP's. Cubans are masters at getting around the system. A typical Cuban lunch of a "mixto", a hot sandwhich made with defferent types of cold cuts on delicious Cuban bread, and then pressed and heated on a grill, alog with some chips, which might be potatoes or plantains, and an El Presidente beer or a kind of Cuban coke called a Malta would cost about $5 using CCP's. Not bad, but, as long as you can speak a little Spanish, convince the shop owner you're not an informant, and the exchange can be done discretely, the average I paid was USD$1 for the same meal, and I could have probably paid less if they accepted US coins. If you can convince a shop owner to take normal pesos, which they might do if you pplead you are out of CCP's or dollars, thw same meal would have cost me about 18 pesos, or around 75 cents. It's hard to do this with food, since they have to match up peoos to ration boooks, which all Cubans must use for food. Eeven then, some has a "cousin" with a few extra ration tickets, for a price. It's like this all over Cuba, and an estimate I read was that the underground economy is about eight times larger than the official economy.

Cubans are very friendly and like Americans. They may not like our government, but that's viewed by most Cubans as propaganda. Lord forbid if you're from south Florida, NYC, or Chicago. As soon as a Cuban find this out, he wants to find out if you know Juan, his cousin, Alberto, a high school buddy, or maybe Adriana, a long-lost niece. It's kind of hard to explain to them that most of us don't know our neighbors, let alone Alberto, :-) I enjoyed my trip to Cuba, even though I'm now a Federal criminal and will probaaly be dragged aways as soon as the NSA reads this post. :-8. It's a nice place to visit but, even with my NSA joke, I still wouldn't want to live there.

Good heavens, I've now written a Cuban travel guide. You can tell things are slow in the tropics. I have to make this weather related though, or I might get Taz's threat of the big hammer. OK, let's see...Cuba is always hot and, except then they get the occasional hurricane, living on a boat with a nice sea breeze is very pleasant.
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1734. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Sea South Of Okinawa (near Yaeyama Islands)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Soulik (955 hPa) located at 23.2N 124.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
280 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 26.1N 120.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
48 HRS: 30.0N 116.0E - Tropical Depression Overland central China
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Quoting 1731. RTSplayer:

GFDL and HWRF are tropical cyclone models. They are supposed to focus on forecasting intensity and exact track of individual storms.

They suck at it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting 1729. KoritheMan:


I don't know enough about intrinsic model algorithms to really say, but to my understanding, the GFS and CMC, like the ECMWF, are considered global models, meaning they run calculations/forecasts on a global scale. Their primary purpose then, would not be to depict cyclogenesis, but to provide global forecasts; modeled forecasts of cyclogenesis would just be an extension of that. I'm not sure why the Euro seems to fall so short relative to the other models when predicting tropical cyclone formation, but I would surmise it has something to do with resolution.

Again, I'm probably not the right guy to answer this, lol. I know how to forecast, but I don't know crap about the specifics of each computer model, barring their very basic functionality and use (ex: I know that the statistical models are based off happenstances of the past, while the dynamical models put out actual forecasts based on real-time data that's integrated into them). Levi's your man here, but I hope that at least made some sense, lol.


I still got my answer, though. Thanks. Beside, I've already bother Levi enough time on Twitter the past few days, lol. He's going to make a big splash in meteorology world very soon, that's for sure. Hopefully Walmart is going well! CBLs finally went back up today after repairs and updates (Get your crap together, Bentonville...)
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Quoting 1729. KoritheMan:


I don't know enough about intrinsic model algorithms to really say, but to my understanding, the GFS and CMC, like the ECMWF, are considered global models, meaning they run calculations/forecasts on a global scale. Their primary purpose then, would not be to depict cyclogenesis, but to provide global forecasts; modeled forecasts of cyclogenesis would just be an extension of that. I'm not sure why the Euro seems to fall so short relative to the other models when predicting tropical cyclone formation, but I would surmise it has something to do with resolution.

Again, I'm probably not the right guy to answer this, lol. I know how to forecast, but I don't know crap about the specifics of each computer model, barring their very basic functionality and use (ex: I know that the statistical models are based off happenstances of the past, while the dynamical models put out actual forecasts based on real-time data that's integrated into them). Levi's your man here, but I hope that at least made some sense, lol.


You are correct.

GFS and CMC are global models. They mainly focus on synoptic scale.

GFDL and HWRF are tropical cyclone models. They are supposed to focus on forecasting intensity and exact track of individual storms.
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Quoting 1728. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Remember Isaac last year? Wasn't it the last model to finally give up on the FL. Panhandle landfall and move it towards NOLA?


The Euro? No, it was the first model to latch onto the Louisiana landfall, when all of the other models kept sending it to Tampa.
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Quoting 1727. Bluestorm5:
Are GFS or CMC NOT cyclogenesis models as well, even though they do better?


I don't know enough about intrinsic model algorithms to really say, but to my understanding, the GFS and CMC, like the ECMWF, are considered global models, meaning they run calculations/forecasts on a global scale. Their primary purpose then, would not be to depict cyclogenesis, but to provide global forecasts; modeled forecasts of cyclogenesis would just be an extension of that. I'm not sure why the Euro seems to fall so short relative to the other models when predicting tropical cyclone formation, but I would surmise it has something to do with resolution.

Again, I'm probably not the right guy to answer this, lol. I know how to forecast, but I don't know crap about the specifics of each computer model, barring their very basic functionality and use (ex: I know that the statistical models are based off happenstances of the past, while the dynamical models put out actual forecasts based on real-time data that's integrated into them). Levi's your man here, but I hope that at least made some sense, lol.
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Quoting 1724. KoritheMan:


Huh? lol

On what basis do you claim this?
Remember Isaac last year? Wasn't it the last model to finally give up on the FL. Panhandle landfall and move it towards NOLA?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8668
Quoting 1726. KoritheMan:


ECMWF is still the best in a lot of other areas, the fact that it's piss poor at depicting tropical cyclogenesis notwithstanding.
Are GFS or CMC NOT cyclogenesis models as well, even though they do better?
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Quoting 1725. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Probably on the basis that the ECMWF has foreseen one named storm out of eight between the East Pacific and Atlantic this year. CMC has a tendency to develop too much though.


ECMWF is still the best in a lot of other areas, the fact that it's piss poor at depicting tropical cyclogenesis notwithstanding.
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Quoting 1724. KoritheMan:


Huh? lol

On what basis do you claim this?

Probably on the basis that the ECMWF has foreseen one named storm out of eight between the East Pacific and Atlantic this year. CMC has a tendency to develop too much though.

ECMWF still, by far, has the better handle than any of the pattern.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting 1721. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I am also inclined to go with the GFS, it is still the best model out there, but the CMC is slowly but surely coming around and may take the spot of the Euro being the 2nd best soon.


Huh? lol

On what basis do you claim this?
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and on we go
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The best I can analyze on the floaters, is that 96L has a decent spin around 23N 78.5W. And that coincides well with the radar imagery out of Miami and Key West (long range loops). It needs to get away from Cuba if it wants to grow up a bit, still too much land interaction. And the upper level winds are still to hostile, albeit easing somewhat.
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Quoting 1692. KoritheMan:


Not gonna happen. The GFS keeps a ton of zonal flow over the Gulf for the next seven days.
I am also inclined to go with the GFS, it is still the best model out there, but the CMC is slowly but surely coming around and may take the spot of the Euro being the 2nd best soon.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8668
Quoting 1711. zampaz:

I wish we could somehow resolve our differences with Cuba...but I'm very ignorant about US foreign policy.
BTW sar, you have wundermail...
EDIT: NEVERMIND...I HAD WUNDERMAIL DOH!


It's pretty simple. I'm sure you already know this but...

Cuba is communist state. USA and the government is anti-communism. Also, Cuba (along with USSR) tried to start WW3 in 1962 by accepting Soviet nuclear missiles. Relationship with Cuba will never get better unless Cuba's government turn democracy (which will be awhile). However, Cuba isn't totally hostile to USA as they let Hurricane Hunters fly in Cuban airspace usually as long as it's offshore and hurricane is threatening to Cuban interest.

EDIT: Note to self: need to do better on grammar...
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There's nary a modeled storm for the East Pacific for the next seven days, either. This truly does look like it's time for me to take a temporary vacation. You know, relax a little. ;)
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Quoting 1700. sar2401:

Sorry, I'm just catching up here after a busy day. I responded to him in a friendly way but I'm somewhat "dubious" that he was real. I was in Cuba four years ago diving. As an US citizen, it has to be done in kind of a sly manner, since no individual US citizen is allowed to travel to Cuba directly. I went with a tour group through Mexico. Your passport doesn't get stamped in or out of Cuba, and the Mexican "tour group" provided paperwork which showed I spent the entire two weeks in Playa del Carmen.

I was in both Havana and Santiago for a few days. If you stay in a tourista hotel, meaning one that only caters to non-Cubans, there is internet access. You can't just stroll in off the street, however. You get an ID card (kind of like a visa) when you arrive in Cuba, and your passport is held by your hotel or the tour group manager. There's no wi-fi. You use the computers in the business center, and there's no doubt in my mind that your use is monitored. The computers were fairly new Chinese Saiweida brand desktops with 21 inch flat screen monitors running Windows 7. There were something like seven or eight different language options on the computer. I was able to access WU and some financial sites with no problem. Yahoo was clearly censored, with some stories that were just blank spaces on the front page. I tried to access one anti-Castro site I knew of and got nothing but 404 errors. Strangely, the computer locked up shortly after that and the person in charge said there was a "technical" issue with that computer. There was a "technical" issue with every computer I used in that hotel after that, using my hotel supplied user ID, so trying to go to an anti-Castro site while in Cuba was probably not a good idea. :-)

There were a few cyber cafes but I saw no evidence of any wi-fi-fi hotspots anywhere in Havana. There may be ones, but I never saw one or even an ad for one. The cyber cafes I did see were for Cubans, and a sign on the door of one said access was restricted to Cuban citizens only. From what I was told by Cubans, access at these cyber cafes are mostly for e-mail and web site access is tightly controlled. The cost is really prohibitive. The sign I saw was the equivalent of $1.50 per hour. That may not sound too bad, but the average Cuban only makes the equivalent of US$20 a month. I'm dubious about our supposed Cuban met because I know that citizen access to the internet is controlled, and it seems even more unlikely to me that a Cuban government employee would be allowed to post at "civilian" web site like WU. Just my use of the term "anti-Castro", in my opinion, would be caught by government filters, and there's only one provider. Posting at work seems unlikely and, even if he was one of the lucky few to have a personal computer, I doubt he'd be able to post here. I hope I'm wrong, since it would be nice to have a Cuban met with us, but I really, really doubt he was for real.


Like I was saying... "claimed".
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1717. EricSFL
Well, goodnight everyone.
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1716. Dakster
Quoting 1714. sar2401:

LOL. The 2:00 literally has two words changed from the 8:00. Doesn't sound like boys at the NHC are pputting a lot of heavy duty time analyzing the blob. :-)


Don't say I didn't warn you.
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1715. 7544
Quoting 1710. sar2401:

None of the rainbow loops seem to be updating or working correctly. It's not just you.
Quoting 1712. EricSFL:

Sorry, but I'm also having trouble with the satellite products from the NHC.


yep its been that like that for 2 days now a fine time to go on a blink lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
1714. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Congratulations Kori, How does it feel to post the 2AM TWO First? lol

Goodnight everyone.

LOL. The 2:00 literally has two words changed from the 8:00. Doesn't sound like boys at the NHC are pputting a lot of heavy duty time analyzing the blob. :-)
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In the western Pacific, Typhoon Soulik remains a powerful typhoon as it nears Taiwan. It is expected to remain a strong typhoon when it hits there. Flooding and strong winds are major concerns.

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1712. EricSFL
Quoting 1705. 7544:


hi do you have a rainbow link like these my ssd link is still flashing lol thanks

Sorry, but I'm also having trouble with the satellite products from the NHC.
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1711. zampaz
Quoting 1700. sar2401:

Sorry, I'm just catching up here after a busy day. I responded to him in a friendly way but I'm somewhat "dubious" that he was real. I was in Cuba four years ago diving. As an US citizen, it has to be done in kind of a sly manner, since no individual US citizen is allowed to travel to Cuba directly. I went with a tour group through Mexico. Your passport doesn't get stamped in or out of Cuba, and the Mexican "tour group" provided paperwork which showed I spent the entire two weeks in Playa del Carmen.

I was in both Havana and Santiago for a few days. If you stay in a tourista hotel, meaning one that only caters to non-Cubans, there is internet access. You can't just stroll in off the street, however. You get an ID card (kind of like a visa) when you arrive in Cuba, and your passport is held by your hotel or the tour group manager. There's no wi-fi. You use the computers in the business center, and there's no doubt in my mind that your use is monitored. The computers were fairly new Chinese Saiweida brand desktops with 21 inch flat screen monitors running Windows 7. There were something like seven or eight different language options on the computer. I was able to access WU and some financial sites with no problem. Yahoo was clearly censored, with some stories that were just blank spaces on the front page. I tried to access one anti-Castro site I knew of and got nothing but 404 errors. Strangely, the computer locked up shortly after that and the person in charge said there was a "technical" issue with that computer. There was a "technical" issue with every computer I used in that hotel after that, using my hotel supplied user ID, so trying to go to an anti-Castro site while in Cuba was probably not a good idea. :-)

There were a few cyber cafes but I saw no evidence of any wi-fi-fi hotspots anywhere in Havana. There may be ones, but I never saw one or even an ad for one. The cyber cafes I did see were for Cubans, and a sign on the door of one said access was restricted to Cuban citizens only. From what I was told by Cubans, access at these cyber cafes are mostly for e-mail and web site access is tightly controlled. The cost is really prohibitive. The sign I saw was the equivalent of $1.50 per hour. That may not sound too bad, but the average Cuban only makes the equivalent of US$20 a month. I'm dubious about our supposed Cuban met because I know that citizen access to the internet is controlled, and it seems even more unlikely to me that a Cuban government employee would be allowed to post at "civilian" web site like WU. Just my use of the term "anti-Castro", in my opinion, would be caught by government filters, and there's only one provider. Posting at work seems unlikely and, even if he was one of the lucky few to have a personal computer, I doubt he'd be able to post here. I hope I'm wrong, since it would be nice to have a Cuban met with us, but I really, really doubt he was for real.

I wish we could somehow resolve our differences with Cuba...but I'm very ignorant about US foreign policy.
BTW sar, you have wundermail...
EDIT: NEVERMIND...I HAD WUNDERMAIL DOH!
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1710. sar2401
Quoting 7544:


hi do you have a rainbow link like these my ssd link is still flashing lol thanks

None of the rainbow loops seem to be updating or working correctly. It's not just you.
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Quoting 1702. TylerStanfield:

Congratulations Kori, How does it feel to post the 2AM TWO First? lol

Goodnight everyone.


Fabulous.
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1708. 7544
oh nice blob to the east side of 96L will that connect with the andros spin ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
*yawn*

Back to boring again. Wake me up in August.
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1706. sar2401
Quoting DataNerd:
Much ado about nothing. Chantal trough is forming alot of convection and that is a positive sign, but its not quite far north and west enough yet to redevelop.


Two more days I think, and its either dead and gone or it has some relevant form of surface circulation by then.


Time will tell after that where it goes. There is a stalling trough that may chuck it out to the east or north but I have a feeling this general area of disturbed weather will crawl its way through the straights and into the GOM by Sunday night or Monday morning.


From there we will see where it goes. If the trough dips into the GOM it would cause the system to turn northeast but it would also cause significant interaction, and depending on the level of development could cause it to redevelop faster, or cause its development to be interfered with.


I am honestly surprised the trough of chantal is doing so well, I thought this would be long over by now.


The saga continues.

That it does. :-) It seems to me the only way for this new blob to develop is northward though, not south. The conditions are better, with less shear and dry air, and the SST's are warmer in the Atlantic than the Gulf right now. My own guess is that this doesn't have a chance to get past the invest stage, but I've been fooled so many times this year, as you say, we'll see what happens two days from now. I hope if it's killed then, it stays dead this time.
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1705. 7544
Quoting 1677. EricSFL:


You can find updated satellite loops from Colorado State RAMMB here: Link


hi do you have a rainbow link like these my ssd link is still flashing lol thanks
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
1704. zampaz
Quoting 1617. Skyepony:
Soulik~ Click pic for loop>



Thank you for sharing and donating your time to the wunderground Skyepony!
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1703. Dakster
Quoting 1701. will40:
hopefully the Discussion will give more information


Maybe. But wouldn't count on it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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