Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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re: #47

Have you hugged your forecaster today?

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The Barometer Bob Show for July 11, 2013.

Bob's guest is Jeff Halverson, Professor at UMBC, Severe Weather Meteorologist and Co-Investigator for the five year Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission. The HS3, is a research program to study the effects of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and the affects it has on tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. This research may help in the intensification forecasts with tropical cyclones.

Tonight 8pm EDST
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
Quoting 47. Chucktown:


Can't agree more. I have to defend the NHC as a meteorologist myself. As we know, NHC is usually pretty conservative. I can't stand when bloggers on here disagree with NHC and say "they should have raised the TWOAT to 40% or to 80%" or when you hear "I wouldn't have gone with that model" or "what is wrong with Avila, he must be looking at a different storm than what we are looking at". Just remember who is reading all the advisories, discussions, etc. from NHC, just about every meteorologist in the U.S. and I'm sure several more from other countries as well, especially in the Caribbean. People on the blog who just spew out forecasts and "gloom and doom" possibilities with every possible spin out there, it doesn't matter if you are wrong or right, nobody cares, there is no credability there. Ooooo, what happens someone eats crow, whoopeee. NHC doesn't have that luxury. So their forecasts are scrutinized and picked with a fine toothed comb and god forbid they are wrong about something, watchout, bash city. Please, just a little respect and love going forward this season for the scientists down in Miami. TIA
Quoting 40. Progster:


Its a great profession with a lot of rewarding moments. To correctly anticipate a sequence of events and get that information out where it can be used to make good decisions is the best thing that we do. As a meteorologist for more than 25 years, though, I've learned that one should not count too much on an understanding of the uncertainty inherent to the job when things don't work out as forecast. Criticism is part of the package. To deal with that we acknowledge the error, we learn from it and move on.


Well said number 1, and well said number 2. As I also recall in many of their forecaster discussions, the NHC did not blindly rely on models as someone on this blog implied. They typically listed ALL scenarios that Chantal could have acted out. As I recall, they mentioned numerous times that Chantal could dissipate over Haiti, and sure enough it did.

Also for all those attacking the NHC about being too aggressive, what would have happened if the NHC under-forecasted Chantal. I bet many on here would be eager to start throwing the first stone at the NHC. They're doing their best and I can assure you they know a lot more about the weather than you and I.
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Quoting 31. Sfloridacat5:


What I see is blind faith in forecast models. Our local forecasters just run the latest forecast model and then report it to the public.

Weather is constantly changing and very complex (as you mentioned). That's what make it so fascinating.
And I do agree that people need to understand how hard it is to forecast the weather (accurately) with today's technology and knowledge.

But it drives me crazy how a lot of meteorologist just run the latest forecast models and then just regurgitate it back to the public.


I completely agree with you there. Being from new Orleans where Nash Roberts just died makes me long for the days when forecasted actually forecasted. Here in Orlando the meteorologists just post up their fancy models and go on about their day. Meanwhile a forecast of 100% rain becomes a sunny day. Lol. Back in new Orleans in the old days the forecasters told us WHY they thought a forecast was going to happen....
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Just in reply to Sar, as I was a bit slow to see new blog LOL

"Quoting 2159. sar2401:

The NHC had her as a TS all the way through the Bahamas. They did not ever predict she would split in two, with one half dead and the other half a remnant low in the Bahamas. The models never picked up on westward movement. The original forecast of a TS until the DR and then a depression was more accurate, but then the NHC began to strengthen her in later runs, even though the discussions showed they didn't have a lot of faith she would survive. I think the forecasters probably had it more right, but the models had it wrong. There's no way around it, and I'm hoping the results are used to improve model performance. I suspect it's difficult for forecasters to disregard models even if they believe they are suspect."


I said last night, I have much more faith in forecasters than models...and only saying they all had it head round Bahamas at some point, nothing about intensity, as they've had a problem with that from the start, didn't even make it to Hispaniola! I was just saying the basic location, they all did have it round there at one time. but even with that, timing of it being there is much earlier than the models were saying too. I agree, probably is hard to ignore the models, but I think the forecasters are better at seeing more immediate things that will help or hamper a system, that the models don't/can't take into account. If any forecaster 'just' go by models, i reckon they could be classed as lazy forecasters, doctorate or not! But I don't think many do that, as it's obvs a profession you'd likely have some passion for. But with tropical systems, event he best forecaster using all he has available, will still be wrong.

Anyway, thanks for the update Dr M
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Quoting 47. Chucktown:


Can't agree more. I have to defend the NHC as a meteorologist myself. As we know, NHC is usually pretty conservative. I can't stand when bloggers on here disagree with NHC and say "they should have raised the TWOAT to 40% or to 80%" or when you hear "I wouldn't have gone with that model" or "what is wrong with Avila, he must be looking at a different storm than what we are looking at". Just remember who is reading all the advisories, discussions, etc. from NHC, just about every meteorologist in the U.S. and I'm sure several more from other countries as well, especially in the Caribbean. People on the blog who just spew out forecasts and "gloom and doom" possibilities with every possible spin out there, it doesn't matter if you are wrong or right, nobody cares, there is no credability there. Ooooo, what happens someone eats crow, whoopeee. NHC doesn't have that luxury. So their forecasts are scrutinized and picked with a fine toothed comb and god forbid they are wrong about something, watchout, bash city. Please, just a little respect and love going forward this season for the scientists down in Miami. TIA


You forgot, "...I'm not going to buy into it until...."
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Quoting 40. Progster:


Its a great profession with a lot of rewarding moments. To correctly anticipate a sequence of events and get that information out where it can be used to make good decisions is the best thing that we do. As a meteorologist for more than 25 years, though, I've learned that one should not count too much on an understanding of the uncertainty inherent to the job when things don't work out as forecast. Criticism is part of the package. To deal with that we acknowledge the error, we learn from it and move on.


Can't agree more. I have to defend the NHC as a meteorologist myself. As we know, NHC is usually pretty conservative. I can't stand when bloggers on here disagree with NHC and say "they should have raised the TWOAT to 40% or to 80%" or when you hear "I wouldn't have gone with that model" or "what is wrong with Avila, he must be looking at a different storm than what we are looking at". Just remember who is reading all the advisories, discussions, etc. from NHC, just about every meteorologist in the U.S. and I'm sure several more from other countries as well, especially in the Caribbean. People on the blog who just spew out forecasts and "gloom and doom" possibilities with every possible spin out there, it doesn't matter if you are wrong or right, nobody cares, there is no credability there. Ooooo, what happens someone eats crow, whoopeee. NHC doesn't have that luxury. So their forecasts are scrutinized and picked with a fine toothed comb and god forbid they are wrong about something, watchout, bash city. Please, just a little respect and love going forward this season for the scientists down in Miami. TIA
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Quoting 30. washingtonian115:
Chantal:


Great analogy!
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i have often thought of the following....if a forecast is not followed as stated was it a bad forecast, if the forecast itself was correctly based upon the current conditions
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The Death of Chantal

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Quoting 40. Progster:


Its a great profession with a lot of rewarding moments. To correctly anticipate a sequence of events and get that information out where it can be used to make good decisions is the best thing that we do. As a meteorologist for more than 25 years, though, I've learned that one should not count too much on an understanding of the uncertainty inherent to the job when things don't work out as forecast. Criticism is part of the package. To deal with that we acknowledge the error, we learn from it and move on.


Ok, this needs to be engraved and placed over the blog for all to see everyday. Well put!
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and your point is?


that is my point tazzy...look at it closely....repeat it over and over.....meditate on it...and all of life's answers will be know to you.....go in peace my son
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Quoting 32. mikatnight:


Hi Taz!
Maybe he's sayin, don't drive too fast - especially if you want to be a tropical cyclone!



oh ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
Quoting 15. boltdwright:


As a meteorologist (starting my Masters in the Fall) myself I couldn't agree more. The thing we dislike the most is a lack of understanding about the complexities of forecasting the weather. We're doing our best and we have dedicated our lives to studying mother nature. The best thing people could do is show a little understanding.


Its a great profession with a lot of rewarding moments. To correctly anticipate a sequence of events and get that information out where it can be used to make good decisions is the best thing that we do. As a meteorologist for more than 25 years, though, I've learned that one should not count too much on an understanding of the uncertainty inherent to the job when things don't work out as forecast. Criticism is part of the package. To deal with that we acknowledge the error, we learn from it and move on.
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It is how I explained what happened to Chantal yesterday....your car is going 25 and it runs into a car going 50.......and see what happens........lol
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to kristina40.....please move from that spot....you'll be fine then....:)
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Quoting 30. washingtonian115:
Chantal:



LOL......thats funny!
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Quoting 33. mikatnight:


Great minds think alike, eh?
Chantal was like a drunk driver behind the wheel that wouldn't stop speeding for her own good.
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Some mid level monsoon moisture flowing into Soo Cal
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF REGENERATION AT THIS TIME AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN HOSTILE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS...ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

I think that's worse than "unfavorable"....
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Quoting 30. washingtonian115:
Chantal:


Great minds think alike, eh?
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Quoting 29. Tazmanian:




and your point is?


Hi Taz!
Maybe he's sayin, don't drive too fast - especially if you want to be a tropical cyclone!
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Quoting 15. boltdwright:


As a meteorologist (starting my Masters in the Fall) myself I couldn't agree more. The thing we dislike the most is a lack of understanding about the complexities of forecasting the weather. We're doing our best and we have dedicated our lives to studying mother nature. The best thing people could do is show a little understanding.


What I see is blind faith in forecast models. Our local forecasters just run the latest forecast model and then report it to the public.

Weather is constantly changing and very complex (as you mentioned). That's what make it so fascinating.
And I do agree that people need to understand how hard it is to forecast the weather (accurately) with today's technology and knowledge.

But it drives me crazy how a lot of meteorologist just run the latest forecast models and then just regurgitate it back to the public.
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Chantal:
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Quoting 24. ricderr:
and what did we learn from chantal this week????????.....SPEED KILLS!!!!!!!<strong>




and your point is?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
Morning to the west Atlantic, afternoon to the east Atlantic, and good evening to Australia.

Wicked foggy here in Maine this morning, about as thick as I've ever seen it. Either that, or I need to see an optometrist.

This blog surely is the place to watch when there is an invest. Informative and entertaining.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Thanks for the kind words Marvin. I'm pretty sure anyone can go look at a Facebook page, you have to register to post.. I think...

Indian Riverkeeper Facebook


From previous blog...
Quoting indianrivguy:


one does not come without the other... it is the last thing the lagoon needs.


Just released....
Health of U.S. Streams Reduced by Streamflow Modifications and Contaminants
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
Indian Riverguy... nice to see you again. You know i feel the same you do and have expressed concern in FT MYERS. We get the other half of the river here.

Curious to see what happens to ex chantal....i expect something still left out of her. Minimal as it may be..
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and what did we learn from chantal this week????????.....SPEED KILLS!!!!!!!<strong>
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Good Morning All
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Quoting 15. boltdwright:


As a meteorologist (starting my Masters in the Fall) myself I couldn't agree more. The thing we dislike the most is a lack of understanding about the complexities of forecasting the weather. We're doing our best and we have dedicated our lives to studying mother nature. The best thing people could do is show a little understanding.

That is really cool! Good luck with your Master's this fall!!
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
Quoting 8. aislinnpaps:
Thanks, Doc.

Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone. A very humid 77 degrees here with a slight chance of rain. I've already watered the garden.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: egg white omelets with your choice of several cheeses, diced lean ham and bacon bits, diced peppers and tomatoes and mushrooms, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, whole wheat Belgium waffles with syrup or fruit sauce, fresh fruit, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, yogurt, orange juice and coffee, regular or decaf. Enjoy!

Ummmmmmmm....egg white omelets. Some protein with some vegies like mushrooms and peppers. YUM. Digging in right now. Today is a pool day so you know what they say about swimming how it makes you hungry! Gonna fill up but promise I'll wait a full hour before jumping in. :)

Thank you Ains.

Nat
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
Quoting 13. pcola57:
From the previous blog..



Thank you so much for the explanation Marty..
I'm glad you are such a knowledgeable advocate and true River Master..
I wish I could go to your Facebook page as you have suggested in the past..
But I don't trust the privacy there..
I took down my page 2 yrs. ago after being trolled numerous times and friending people I didn't know just to clear up the junk..
I may yet try again but I will read every tutorial I can find first..
Posting personal stuff to a social site freaks me out a little..
Once again Marty..
You speak for many of us native Floridians..
More power to you my friend.. :)


Thanks for the kind words Marvin. I'm pretty sure anyone can go look at a Facebook page, you have to register to post.. I think...

Indian Riverkeeper Facebook
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2585
Quoting 16. 69Viking:


We don't need it in the Fort Walton Beach area either but we're getting it this morning already.



Yeah, we're supposed to get a couple more inches today as well. We certainly don't need any. :(
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Quoting 15. boltdwright:


As a meteorologist (starting my Masters in the Fall) myself I couldn't agree more. The thing we dislike the most is a lack of understanding about the complexities of forecasting the weather. We're doing our best and we have dedicated our lives to studying mother nature. The best thing people could do is show a little understanding.


I completely understand, keep up the hard work.
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Nice photo (LindyLu60)...I'm envious!

Quoting 2163. pcola57:


Thank you so much for the explanation Marty..
I'm glad you are such a knowledgeable advocate and true River Master..
I wish I could go to your Facebook page as you have suggested in the past..
But I don't trust the privacy there..
I took down my page 2 yrs. ago after being trolled numerous times and friending people I didn't know just to clear up the junk..
I may yet try again but I will read every tutorial I can find first..
Posting personal stuff to a social site freaks me out a little..
Once again Marty..
You speak for many of us native Floridians..
More power to you my friend.. :)


Ah, Facebook! I don't do facebook...hmmm, my wife does, I'll get her to check it out. I still think he should do regular posts, and his stories of the past - so interesting.
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Quoting 14. Kristina40:
I see the bullseye for rain is right over Panama City. We are completely waterlogged after over 20" of rain last week. 3 or 4 more inches will cause flooding from where I'm sitting.


We don't need it in the Fort Walton Beach area either but we're getting it this morning already.

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Quoting 5. 69Viking:


Why are you guys still discussing this? Anyone that has studied weather knows that forecasting the weather is just an educated guess. The NHC gave the best forecast they could based on the data they had. They don't have a crystal ball that tells them EXACTLY how strong a ridge of high pressure or weakness is going to be or how high or low shear is going to be at any given time.


As a meteorologist (starting my Masters in the Fall) myself I couldn't agree more. The thing we dislike the most is a lack of understanding about the complexities of forecasting the weather. We're doing our best and we have dedicated our lives to studying mother nature. The best thing people could do is show a little understanding.
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I see the bullseye for rain is right over Panama City. We are completely waterlogged after over 20" of rain last week. 3 or 4 more inches will cause flooding from where I'm sitting.
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From the previous blog..

Quoting 2105. indianrivguy:


Marvin, the Kissimmee River watershed has always been there. It is the defacto headwaters of the Florida Everglades, and begins in a small pond/marsh at the end of one of the runways at Orlando's airport. Thirty years ago, some brainiac decided to straighten it out, removing nearly 100 miles of twists turns and oxbows. This drained a LOT of land, which agriculture immediately occupied. When it was discovered that little could be worse for the health of Okeechobee lake, they began a "restoration" project to put all the twists and turns back.

Agriculture then demanded to be payed for the land they did not own to begin with that reflooded, and our state, always ready to feed agriculture money, paid them... even though WE the citizens actually owned the land. Meantime, agriculture obstructed water quality standards so the EPA made us adopt theirs. Governor Bush promptly delayed this for 15 years, in payment for sugars help getting his brother elected.

The Miccosuki Indians had to sue the state because the still polluted water was killing the Florida everglades. They won, now, because ALL water decisions south of Orlando default to what sugar wants, they discharge all that polluted water out mam made connections to the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries.

63,580 gallons per SECOND out the Caloosahatchee, 9,724 gallons per SECOND out the St. Lucie. We also have some 11,220 gallons per second coming from the St. Lucie watershed, which has been forcibly increased from 350 square miles, to more than 800 by water managers.

The state of Florida, and its Department of Environmental Protection is totally corrupt, and does the bidding of agriculture, citizens health and well being be damned. Protecting polluters, pulp mills and sugar cane is more important than the health of our citizens.

This discharges coming out the St. Lucie pass directly through the most diverse fishery in CONUS, AND the study area that earned the Indian River lagoon the most diverse estuary in north America.

So, given all this water overload, and the protection of sugar cane that we subsidize, and pay more than twice world rates for, the two estuaries are destroyed, and peoples health put into danger from the polluted, cyanobacterial carrying water being dumped on us.







Thank you so much for the explanation Marty..
I'm glad you are such a knowledgeable advocate and true River Master..
I wish I could go to your Facebook page as you have suggested in the past..
But I don't trust the privacy there..
I took down my page 2 yrs. ago after being trolled numerous times and friending people I didn't know just to clear up the junk..
I may yet try again but I will read every tutorial I can find first..
Posting personal stuff to a social site freaks me out a little..
Once again Marty..
You speak for many of us native Floridians..
More power to you my friend.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6876
12. SLU
Latest NMME forecasts for Aug. and Sept.



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10. SLU
Looks like the Caribbean will be the place to be come August.



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Thanks for the updated blog Dr. Masters..
Chantal was a Carribean runner that conditions just took their toll on and whats left will be nourishing rain for some..
Soulik looking strong again today..
Here's hoping the Chinese will not loose any lives..
Thanks again Dr. Masters..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6876
Thanks, Doc.

Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone. A very humid 77 degrees here with a slight chance of rain. I've already watered the garden.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: egg white omelets with your choice of several cheeses, diced lean ham and bacon bits, diced peppers and tomatoes and mushrooms, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, whole wheat Belgium waffles with syrup or fruit sauce, fresh fruit, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, yogurt, orange juice and coffee, regular or decaf. Enjoy!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3159
Thanks Doc.
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Good morning all and Thanks Doc!
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Quoting 2143. sar2401:

While the OP you were responding to is clearly a troll, I'm not so willing to let the NHC off the hook regarding Chantal. They (through the models) predicted a Tropical Storm in the Bahamas, not a remnant low. The predicted a NNE movement f Chantal when, in fact, she moved either WNW or straight west much of her life. This was also the second time they have gone from an AOI straight to a tropical storm. The model performance, in general, was poor and, if it wasn't for the hurricane hunters, I'm convinced that we would have had a hurricane that didn't really exist. The NHC is not made up of fools, so I'm sure they will examine what went right and what went wrong with Chantal. I don't want to see every forecaster taken out and shot, but I also don't want to irrationally defend them. It's kind of like when you become a Doctor. If you're doing an operation repair cataracts in both eyes and then don't do one, it's not a very good defense to say "Hey, at least I got one of them right". :-)


Why are you guys still discussing this? Anyone that has studied weather knows that forecasting the weather is just an educated guess. The NHC gave the best forecast they could based on the data they had. They don't have a crystal ball that tells them EXACTLY how strong a ridge of high pressure or weakness is going to be or how high or low shear is going to be at any given time.
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Thank you for new entry.

REPOST

Quoting 2158. mikatnight:


Yeah, Dexter's got his own fan base. Without his pic, not near as many likes. That's a Florida Oak tree, not sure which one (there's like 19 varieties), IndianRivGuy would know in a heartbeat. Thanks for the kind remarks, I'm having fun with this (now) daily routine! I'll try to keep it interesting, but it's getting hard to find new angles, compositions - wish that confounded bridge would hurry up and open so I could get to the ocean!

Anytime mikatnight! And please do keep it rolling. I am enjoying this. :) A Florida Oak...cool! I'll have to go to my database and check out the scientific name and exact hardiness zones for that, but my guess is that particular species falls just outside of my range....darn!! Lol. I'd love to have one of those for my guess is it's probably a 8a to 9b and I"m in the 7a so it might freeze and shiver too much in the winter. :)

Nat :)
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. I am happy that we dodged this one.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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