Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 91. weathermanwannabe:


Hey...Looking like the big t-storm complex to the North of You in Bama is slowly creeping South towards the Florida border.....Did Ya get the rubber boots yet?
Yep! Picked them up this weekend ....and HAD to wear 'em into work this morning...to wade up to the gate to get out! On TV they said that complex was going to stay west of us. That just hasn't worked out!
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Just like how 92L was suppose to be Berry originally and some good scientific points were brought up as to why it should've been named.Heck it even had model support.But due to climo the NHC never named it.They even said in a outlook that it was producing tropical storm force winds.
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Ah, the NE flow has cleared the clouds from the sky and most the water from the air in S C IL! 60 dew pt, 75 w/ light NE winds, 30.00". 59 low forecast for tomorrow morning! A/C off and windows open in July for two weekends in a row, can't beat that.

69Vike, I'll be in your fair city in 3 weeks, any off the beaten path recommendations?
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img src="">

New video watching tstms and spin in bahamas.
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CMC at 60hrs. Something off Carolina coast?





cut off low that is out there presently maybe?
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There is some broad cyclonic turning of the winds in the ASCAT pass from last night. Currently modest shear over it but just not a lot of convection to help initiate. Can't remember if this is what the GFS picked up on a few days ago. Water Vapor wasn't impressive either. Just a little something to watch I guess.

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Quoting 90. Neyewall:
CMC at 60hrs. Something off Carolina coast?


Chantally lace?
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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting 88. HondosGirl:
It has already poured hear in Northern Holmes County, FL this morning. I hear thunder in the near distance and the radar looks like more rain is on its way. We are already down to one way in/out of our property....and that roadway had a large area of flowing water over it - before the earlier morning downpour.


Hey...Looking like the big t-storm complex to the North of You in Bama is slowly creeping South towards the Florida border.....Did Ya get the rubber boots yet?
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CMC at 60hrs. Something off Carolina coast?
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It has already poured hear in Northern Holmes County, FL this morning. I hear thunder in the near distance and the radar looks like more rain is on its way. We are already down to one way in/out of our property....and that roadway had a large area of flowing water over it - before the earlier morning downpour.
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edit failed!
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imma thankin its over for Can't Tell but den agin amazing thangs can happen to a little bit of stormy in a big old warm bathtub, if it can lay low long enough for the shear to pass this weekend.
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Quoting 66. Levi32:
I agree with the sentiments advocating respect for the NHC and what they do. It's very hard to understand what they go through when the public is watching every forecast. I certainly didn't understand a few years ago, and I still don't, but I've been getting a small glimpse lately as more and more people start to view my blogs. Your forecasting will change big-time when thousands of eyes are on you, period. The NHC has the most eyes of all on them, numbering in the millions. What they have to attempt to do each season is one of the greatest challenges in meteorology, and to ever suggest that they slack on their job is the farthest thing from the truth.

It should be noted, however, that as amateur or private-sector forecasters, disagreeing with the all-star team is ok. I strongly believe that the greatest thing that can push meteorology forward is the fight between meteorologists to be the best at forecasting. Competition drives innovation. However, it should always be done with class. Sometimes you might catch something the NHC didn't, but many times they will be better than you. We're all on the same team, and our primary goal is to save lives. The NHC saves thousands of them every time a major hurricane makes landfall. We can only hope to be a drop in the ocean that extends that live-saving influence to more people.


I couldn't agree with you more Levi. We're all here to learn, and not to simply jump on the train because everyone else is riding. In my opinion, this blog is one of the single greatest sources of my meteorological knowledge, which has increased 10-fold due to persons like yourself. If we all learned to handle criticism well, and importantly, learn how to criticize/disagree in a more amicable manner, just imagine how much further the human race would be.
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Quoting 7544:


no it keeps blinking before it fully loads and keeps on bliking thanks anyother rainbow link i can use ?


Try one of these Link

Or this one Link

If you stil have problems, maybe you need to update your flash and java.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
That big ULL/Tutt cell now draped down into Cuba is enhancing convection along the Western side of the remnants and that would probably include the current flare up on the Southern coast of Cuba:

Link
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Quoting Neyewall:
Anyone know what the big blob just south of Cuba is? Could that be the old low level circulation of Chantal? I remember seeing a post yesterday that someone stated the low and mid levels separated. LLC went west and MLC went North.


Yes, that is part of the old Chantal.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting 47. Chucktown:


Can't agree more. I have to defend the NHC as a meteorologist myself. As we know, NHC is usually pretty conservative. I can't stand when bloggers on here disagree with NHC and say "they should have raised the TWOAT to 40% or to 80%" or when you hear "I wouldn't have gone with that model" or "what is wrong with Avila, he must be looking at a different storm than what we are looking at". Just remember who is reading all the advisories, discussions, etc. from NHC, just about every meteorologist in the U.S. and I'm sure several more from other countries as well, especially in the Caribbean. People on the blog who just spew out forecasts and "gloom and doom" possibilities with every possible spin out there, it doesn't matter if you are wrong or right, nobody cares, there is no credability there. Ooooo, what happens someone eats crow, whoopeee. NHC doesn't have that luxury. So their forecasts are scrutinized and picked with a fine toothed comb and god forbid they are wrong about something, watchout, bash city. Please, just a little respect and love going forward this season for the scientists down in Miami. TIA


You make great points about the NHC. They are the pros and are right way more than they are wrong. However, how boring would this blog be if we all fell in line and agreed with everything the NHC stated? Discussion is healthy as long as it is done in a scientific manner. Of course, a lot of newbies/trolls come in and claim that everything is going to become a major hurricane or no shear is present when it's blatantly obvious 50kts of it exists. A lot of the more experienced people here bring up great points that end up being correct eventually. As amateurs, we have the luxury of stepping out on a limb in either direction whereas the NHC doesn't have that luxury. I'm thankful for those on here who are smart enough to question the NHC every now and then, only if they are able to bring up valid points and have sound reasoning behind their claims. It's fairly easy to decipher between the ones who have sound ideas and the ones who don't.

Just my take.
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Cuban Radar showing the area where that ball just blew up.

Link
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78. 7544
Quoting 72. unknowncomic:
Good blow -up of convection occurring near south coast of Cuba where ex Chantal's surface vortex maybe.






yep this is the spot the cmc regenerated her as it took the blob over cuba and head it north may still happen lets see how big the blob will be .
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Hi Nevada from Spanish Town, Heavy rains and thunderstorms in Spanish Town very early this morning. It was a refreshing feeling to get some rain. It is still heavily cloudy at the moment it is now 9:50 a.m here and we could be in for some more rains today, take care everybody.
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Good morning, afternoon, evening everyone

After nearly two months of not being able to get out fishing, as the fishermen say, "She (Chantal) done pulled de rotten weather out from us." Looks like we're going to have a couple of nights of hard fishing to catch up on our fish orders before the next round of winds hit us.

Other than that, lovely day here on the island.

-L

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And aside from not discounting forecasters, I don't discount a lot of amateur forecasters as well. Just cause someone doesn't have a degree, doesn't always mean they're not as learned in it. The best forecaster for N Wales, is an elderly bloke who's passion it has been his whole life tracking and noting conditions and cycles and local micro-climate for at least 40 odd years. He does better than any of the ones on tv.

I agree to a point...here's a typical comment on this blog after chantal dissipated..."i told you the NHC didn't know where she was going"...which is wrong in itself as we basically see chantal following the forecast track path sans a bit of herself that meanders toward the gulf...however no one predicted the dissipation of chantal before hispanola...no one had any useful information contradicting the forecast offered by the NHC...just because maybe one day i can out guess them...does not make me better...and no...not all amateurs out guess them..some actually use science....but those of here as weatherweenies...well...we sure try
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Hello for the first time this yr. Tried to get on during Chantal but no go. I enjoy all of your comments on here and allways appreciate you answering my questions from time to time.

LindyLu60, great pic.
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73. 7544
Quoting 58. indianrivguy:


your link worked fine for me....


no it keeps blinking before it fully loads and keeps on bliking thanks anyother rainbow link i can use ?
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Good blow -up of convection occurring near south coast of Cuba where ex Chantal's surface vortex maybe.




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Is that the old LLC over Cuba???
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Anyone know what the big blob just south of Cuba is? Could that be the old low level circulation of Chantal? I remember seeing a post yesterday that someone stated the low and mid levels separated. LLC went west and MLC went North.
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Optical lattice atomic clock could 'redefine the second'
9 July 2013 Last updated at 21:29 ET
By Rebecca Morelle
Science reporter, BBC World Service


The optical lattice clock shines lasers on atoms to measure time

Scientists say they have found a more accurate way to measure time.

We currently use atomic clocks to count the seconds, but tests on an alternative atomic timekeeper have revealed that it is more precise.

The devices, called optical lattice clocks, lost just one second every 300 million years - making them three times as accurate as current atomic clocks.

Writing in Nature Communications, the team said they offered a better system for defining the second.

Laser show

We once used the Earth's rotation to measure time, where one spin equates to a day.

But because our planet wobbles on its axis as it rotates, some days can be shorter or longer than others.

The atomic clock has proved to be a far more accurate method of keeping the world on time and since the 1960s has been used to define a second in the International System of Units (SI units).

But now scientists say the optical lattice clock could improve the precision.

Just as a grandfather clock uses the swing of a pendulum to measure intervals of time, an atomic clock uses the very regular "vibrations" of atoms.

Our current systems, called caesium fountains, expose clouds of caesium atoms to microwaves to get them to oscillate. But the new ones use light to excite strontium atoms.

Dr Jerome Lodewyck, from the Paris Observatory, said: "In our clocks we use laser beams. Laser beams oscillate much faster than microwave radiation, and in a sense we divide time in much shorter intervals so we can measure time more precisely."

The optical clocks are three times as accurate as caesium fountains, which are accurate to one second every 100 million years.

As well as comparing the optical lattice clocks with our current atomic timekeepers, the researchers compared two optical clocks with each other. They found that they kept time in agreement, and were also very stable.

"For instance, if you have your wristwatch, and one day you are one second late, and one day one second early, then your clock is not stable. But it could still have good accuracy if over a million days the time is correct," Dr Lodewyck explained.

It is important to measure both accuracy and stability, he added.

Many technologies such as telecommunications, satellite navigation and the stock markets rely on ever-better time measurements. The researchers said the new clocks could one day help to redefine the second.

Another clock is also undergoing development - an ion clock. This clock loses just one second every few billion years, but because it relies on a single ion, it is not yet deemed to be stable enough for widespread use.

LINK
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Yesterday when I forecasted ex-Chantal would reintensify in the Western Caribbean, I failed to think the ULL would shear it apart. Forecasting these systems is very tough. No matter how many factors you take into account, one factor can always change and alter the outcome entirely. Meteorology is a tough science, but this is how we learn. The good news is that it degenerated so there will be no high wind issues, but sadly heavy rain and flooding has already done damage in Hispanoila.
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Interesting 500 mb loop depicting a southwestern bound low that originates in Pennsylvania and meanders to West Texas

LINK
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I agree with the sentiments advocating respect for the NHC and what they do. It's very hard to understand what they go through when the public is watching every forecast. I certainly didn't understand a few years ago, and I still don't, but I've been getting a small glimpse lately as more and more people start to view my blogs. Your forecasting will change big-time when thousands of eyes are on you, period. The NHC has the most eyes of all on them, numbering in the millions. What they have to attempt to do each season is one of the greatest challenges in meteorology, and to ever suggest that they slack on their job is the farthest thing from the truth.

It should be noted, however, that as amateur or private-sector forecasters, disagreeing with the all-star team is ok. I strongly believe that the greatest thing that can push meteorology forward is the fight between meteorologists to be the best at forecasting. Competition drives innovation. However, it should always be done with class. Sometimes you might catch something the NHC didn't, but many times they will be better than you. We're all on the same team, and our primary goal is to save lives. The NHC saves thousands of them every time a major hurricane makes landfall. We can only hope to be a drop in the ocean that extends that live-saving influence to more people.
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Jul 11, 2013 09:24 AM EDT
Gigantic Chunk of Iceberg Eight Times the Size of Manhattan Breaks off from Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier
By Benita Matilda



A massive ice shelf that is eight times the size of Manhattan separated itself from the Pine Island Glacier in the Antarctica on July 8, 2013. The gigantic ice shelf is currently floating in the Amundsen Sea in the form of a very large iceberg.

It was on October 14, 2011 that a group of scientist from the American Space Agency NASA identified the first crack in the glacier tongue. The then emerging crack was some 24 kilometers long and 50 meters wide. The second crack was noticed on May 11, 2012. It produced a 30 square kilometer iceberg that was enclosed by another bigger iceberg.

"As a result of these cracks, one giant iceberg broke away from the glacier tongue. It measures 720 square kilometres and is therefore almost as large as the city of Hamburg", Prof. Angelika Humbert, ice researcher at the Alfred Wegener Institute, said in a press release.

Since then a team of scientists from Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research , have been following the cracks with the help of TerraSAR-X, an earth observation satellite from the German Space Agency. They have documented the changes in several single images and this data is believed to solve the secrecy of 'calving'.

In order to get a deep understanding of the physical processes involved in glacier movements and also to observe the progress of the two cracks spotted earlier, the team worked with the high resolution radar images of the DLR earth observation satellite TerraSAR-X. With this they managed to approximately measure the width of the cracks and measure the speed at which the ice was flowing.

"Above the large crack, the glacier last flowed at a speed of twelve metres per day", said Dr. Dana Floricioiu from DLR. And Nina Wilkens, PhD graduate in Prof. Humbert's team. "Using the images we have been able to follow how the larger crack on the Pine Island glacier extended initially to a length of 28 kilometres. Shortly before the "birth" of the iceberg, the gap then widened bit by bit so that it measured around 540 metres at its widest point."

The team used the data provided by TerraSAR-X satellite in computer simulation by which they can model the mechanism of the ice masses when they break and flow. These simulation results were compared with current satellite data.

According to Humbert, the Pine Island glacier, which flows from Hudson Mountains to Amundsen, is the fastest flowing glacier in Western Antarctic and flows at the speed of 4 kilometers per year. This speed is not affected by the rising air temperature but the wind directions.

A faster flow of the Pine Island glacier for the Western Antarctic ice shelf would lead to serious consequences.

LINK
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Thank You Dr. Masters and thanks to the Pro-Mets, Met Students and Prodigies who participate on the Blog from time to time. Your comments and analysis are most welcome on here for those, like myself, who are on here to learn more about the weather and forecasting issues.

Your "educated" guesses are a breath of fresh air.
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Quoting 61. ncstorm:
anyone see this on the CFS from last run? new run is currently running long range..







I don't understand this NC...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2521
twins basil! twins!

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
anyone see this on the CFS from last run? new run is currently running long range..





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting 45. ricderr:
i have often thought of the following....if a forecast is not followed as stated was it a bad forecast, if the forecast itself was correctly based upon the current conditions



And where I think the models might lack. I've never seen what's put into them, but it does seem it's current conditions, and maybe forecast conditions to high and low pressure steering currents or such...but it's all just estimation on current conditions then anyway. Sometimes they might nail it, but just as often don't.

And aside from not discounting forecasters, I don't discount a lot of amateur forecasters as well. Just cause someone doesn't have a degree, doesn't always mean they're not as learned in it. The best forecaster for N Wales, is an elderly bloke who's passion it has been his whole life tracking and noting conditions and cycles and local micro-climate for at least 40 odd years. He does better than any of the ones on tv.
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Looks like a rainy afternoon across the Southeast today

HRRR forecast for 21z

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Quoting 56. 7544:
hi does anyone have a link to a good rainbow loop mine has been blinking for 2 days one like this one thanks

Link


your link worked fine for me....
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2521
Quoting 20. indianrivguy:


Thanks for the kind words Marvin. I'm pretty sure anyone can go look at a Facebook page, you have to register to post.. I think...

Indian Riverkeeper Facebook


I appreciate all that you do here, Marty. I also appreciate your Facebook page that draws the attention of the problems to people all around the world. Keep up the great work! We need people in every state that have your knowledge and dedication to hopefully resolve the problems we all face when monied interests gain the political clout that gives them the power to defeat the public's best interests.
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56. 7544
hi does anyone have a link to a good rainbow loop mine has been blinking for 2 days one like this one thanks

Link
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Quoting 30. washingtonian115:
Chantal:


I cant stop watching it...
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re: #47

Have you hugged your forecaster today?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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