Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting mikatnight:


Thanks. It was an on-again, off-again problem, but I finally saw the light.

heheheheh, you were Saved !
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Quoting 136. pottery:
In the meantime, a TWave between 30W-40W, (with retreating SAL), is the only possibility of anything in the Atl. Basin right now.
And it doesn't look particularly threatening....

Not seeing Chantal being able to revive herself.
Rain, thats all.
Hello Pott..Wont be long until we,ll be tracking more than one system simultaneously.
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Watch the last few frames of this radar. winds out of the WNW in Negril point, Jamaica, just sayin
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.
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!!!
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Quoting mikatnight:


Hi Pottery -
Your flowers dutifully perk up after dad gave em a drink?

Yes indeed !
But you know how these things go...
you end up spending the entire morning pulling weeds and chopping things down.
I had been presented with A List, by a Higher Authority early this morning.
So I was hoping for damp drizzle and overcast skies.
No such luck. I'm now scorched !
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Quoting 139. pottery:

Happy for you !

:):))


Thanks. It was an on-again, off-again problem, but I finally saw the light.
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Quoting 141. bappit:
I think all the support being offered to the NHC can be best summed up as "we are amateurs, they are pros".
+ 2457...
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Quoting 129. serialteg:
Images from yesterday morning's Chantal Puerto Rico surf session:







Good Lord I miss doin that.
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Honestly, NHC did the best they could. IMO, they got stuck in lose-lose situation. They might have known that the trade winds was going to open up Chantal, but they couldn't take the chance of having MILLIONS of people being caught off guard if Chantal did survive the trades and shears. Hispaniola is among the poorest countries in the world and many people are still homeless from that earthquake. I would rather forecast the storm over Hispaniola to keep the folks there on their toes than forecasting an open wave. Beside, if the storm open up into a wave unlike the forecast, no harm will come to anyone and NHC will get criticize some, but people will forget that soon. If they forecast opening up into wave, but Chantal didn't do that, thousands would've been kill in Haiti because they weren't prepared and NHC will be criticize even more than they were during Sandy. It's a tough job to be professional forecasters and they can't really afford to make mistakes that end up killing people.
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glad to hear it's not too bad and that everyone can find fun in all this rain. I guess I should clarify the "dr" part. It is really "ndr" which stands for Nazarene disaster response. I am the coordinator for the Alabama south district (even though I live in florida). we have served after hurricanes Katrina, ivan, Isaac as well as the enterprise tornado 2007 and the north Alabama tornadoes of 2011 as well as others. we are multi faceted serving in many different areas of disaster response.
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I think all the support being offered to the NHC can be best summed up as "we are amateurs, they are pros".
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Quoting 136. pottery:
In the meantime, a TWave between 30W-40W, (with retreating SAL), is the only possibility of anything in the Atl. Basin right now.
And it doesn't look particularly threatening....

Not seeing Chantal being able to revive herself.
Rain, thats all.


Hi Pottery -
Your flowers dutifully perk up after dad gave em a drink?
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Quoting mikatnight:


I used to have a blinking problem, but I'm much better now!

Happy for you !

:):))
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Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:
12Z GFS seems to be redeveloping Chantal off SE FL.



The GFS keeps it incredibly weak, only 1009mb at most on the hi-res GFS.
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Quoting 136. pottery:
In the meantime, a TWave between 30W-40W, (with retreating SAL), is the only possibility of anything in the Atl. Basin right now.
And it doesn't look particularly threatening....

Not seeing Chantal being able to revive herself.
Rain, thats all.

Chantal is reforming,will be td tonight.
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In the meantime, a TWave between 30W-40W, (with retreating SAL), is the only possibility of anything in the Atl. Basin right now.
And it doesn't look particularly threatening....

Not seeing Chantal being able to revive herself.
Rain, thats all.
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Quoting 134. AussieStorm:


I think you need to check if your flash and java are up-to-date as I have no problems viewing the loops. If you have a blinking problem I would check your pc 1st.


I used to have a blinking problem, but I'm much better now!
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Quoting 108. 7544:
thanks for the link to the rainbow sat loop but it looks like nooa is have a sat promblem they all blink only the visable works good lol


I think you need to check if your flash and java are up-to-date as I have no problems viewing the loops. If you have a blinking problem I would check your pc 1st.
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Quoting 118. nfloridandr:


hondosgirl....any flood damage over your way? we received another 2.75" yesterday, made driveway a river. ground is fully saturated.
Hi Doc! We have had some minor damages around but not too serious. Washington County just south of Bonifay has had more serious problems w/some folks having to evacuate and losing a lot. My two driveways run through a swamp/pond area. One has caved and is no longer passable. The other is flooded but still passable --- but it is eerie to cross with what appears to be a river across it. Terraces are holding extreme amounts of water .... Puppies and Grandchildren are loving playing in the pond like puddles and streams though!
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img src="">
Bahamas going to 30% soon.
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Quoting 130. mikatnight:


Is it me or do the models seem a bit strained this year? Or maybe the word is odd. CMC comes up with Andrea (right?), then wins best track on Chantal, and ECMWF...where have they been?
The ECWMF celebrated to hard with Sandy and is now a drunk wondering the streets of Europe some where.I'm sure it'll come back to it's senses soon..
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Quoting 123. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah, I see nothing going on in that area right now so it's kind of hard to believe the GFS right now.


Is it me or do the models seem a bit strained this year? Or maybe the word is odd. CMC comes up with Andrea (right?), then wins best track on Chantal, and ECMWF...where have they been?
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Images from yesterday morning's Chantal Puerto Rico surf session:







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Hey scott does it develop the african wave?.
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Quoting 35. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Some mid level monsoon moisture flowing into Soo Cal


Wheres Mexico? At first look I thought that was Africa...lol.
Non of the rain has showed up here yet.

Indian Hills, Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 8:46 AM PDT on July 11, 2013
Overcast
71.3 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: 62 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.93 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 74 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1.0 out of 16
Pollen: 2.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Overcast 13000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft
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126. 7544
and now this one too hmmmmm might get interesting scott

Link
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One can make out a broad, elongated area of LP in the south eastern Bahamas.

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@NWS Boston
Park Avenue in Cranston is flooded!
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Quoting 120. Neyewall:


Hope that's a bad run.. If that were to happen, ALOT of people would be caught off guard since that prediction is only 24rs away. Would have to see something trying to form by tonight to think that run has any validity.


Yeah, I see nothing going on in that area right now so it's kind of hard to believe the GFS right now.
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Mr. Schroyer's Wild Ride

Watch the Video.
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wind shear going up on the east coast and everywhere else.
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Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:
12Z GFS seems to be redeveloping Chantal off SE FL.



Hope that's a bad run.. If that were to happen, ALOT of people would be caught off guard since that prediction is only 24rs away. Would have to see something trying to form by tonight to think that run has any validity.
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119. 7544
Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:
12Z GFS seems to be redeveloping Chantal off SE FL.



cmc was showing that a few runs back in the spot she is in in now maybe if that blob moves north into the staights it might be right .
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Quoting 103. HondosGirl:
Yep! Picked them up this weekend ....and HAD to wear 'em into work this morning...to wade up to the gate to get out! On TV they said that complex was going to stay west of us. That just hasn't worked out!


hondosgirl....any flood damage over your way? we received another 2.75" yesterday, made driveway a river. ground is fully saturated.
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12Z Nam developes the ULL in the C Atlantic.

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wind shear going up on the east coast soon.
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here's what we had just before shear ripped it a new one.......


H. REMARKS...NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ARE AVAILABLE BUT THE 0614Z SSMI
DID HINT AT A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER. LIMITED ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION
IS SHEARED LT 1/2 DEGREE EAST OF THE CENTER. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE
ELONGATED NW TO SE AND ARE NOT TIGHTLY CURVED. DT IS ASSIGNED 1.0 IN
SPITE OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE CONVECTION BECAUSE THE
CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED. MET AND PT
ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
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Chantal may not be done yet based on the 12Z GFS.

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It also had a closed low as well that was seen on Ascat and other wind measurement tools.


sorry bub...but at the time i never saw that noted...nor can i find that after the fact
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12Z GFS seems to be redeveloping Chantal off SE FL.

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111. 7544
Quoting 109. Hurricane1956:
Hello 7544,are you in Miami?,because I'm and I'm having exactly the same problem that you have with the Rainbow loops,either the Caribbean,Gulf of Mexico etc., this has been happening since yesterday morning!!,not idea why??.


ohh good its not just me lol it works good a cell phone tho but not on the laptop heheh thanks
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Link

Looking at this satellite loop, you can see a weak LL swirl just SW of Negril point, Jamaica and winds are out of the NNW/NW in Negril.
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Quoting 73. 7544:


no it keeps blinking before it fully loads and keeps on bliking thanks anyother rainbow link i can use ?
Hello 7544,are you in Miami?,because I'm and I'm having exactly the same problem that you have with the Rainbow loops,either the Caribbean,Gulf of Mexico etc., this has been happening since yesterday morning!!,not idea why??.
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108. 7544
thanks for the link to the rainbow sat loop but it looks like nooa is have a sat promblem they all blink only the visable works good lol
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Chantal remnants have moistened the Caribbean up a bit.
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Quoting 104. ricderr:
They even said in a outlook that it was producing tropical storm force winds.


i live in el paso.....we have storms bringing tropical storm force winds multiple times per year...none will ever be named...wind speed does not a tropical storm make
It also had a closed low as well that was seen on Ascat and other wind measurement tools.
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30% coming at 2pm for southern Bahamas.
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They even said in a outlook that it was producing tropical storm force winds.


i live in el paso.....we have storms bringing tropical storm force winds multiple times per year...none will ever be named...wind speed does not a tropical storm make
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Quoting 91. weathermanwannabe:


Hey...Looking like the big t-storm complex to the North of You in Bama is slowly creeping South towards the Florida border.....Did Ya get the rubber boots yet?
Yep! Picked them up this weekend ....and HAD to wear 'em into work this morning...to wade up to the gate to get out! On TV they said that complex was going to stay west of us. That just hasn't worked out!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.