Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 197. TropicalAnalystwx13:
12z CMC shows the landfall of a weak Tropical Storm Chantal right over my house:



NHC planning to investigate on the way to you


REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 12/1530Z
D. 28.5N 77.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Quoting 193. weathermanwannabe:


True.............Looked up a "cost" answer on Wiki and it indicated a cost of about 2 million US per site.



Considering the effect that these storms/waves have on shipping, naval facilities and tracking, Gitmo, and commercial transport it would seem that a station in Haiti could very well have a good ROI with a payback in the 1-2 year range. In the corporate world that is practically a "gimmee". Not having one seems to be penny wise and pound foolish.
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Quoting 200. longislander102:


Wait....is that the remains of Chantal?



That's a piece of her for sure. She's not done yet.
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Quoting 151. stormpetrol:


Watch the last few frames of this radar. winds out of the WNW in Negril point, Jamaica, just sayin


Wait....is that the remains of Chantal?

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Wind shear has really dropped off in the Western Caribbean and the area around the Bahamas, so there is a chance for redevelopment:



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6676
198. wxmod
North Pole webcam today. Pooled melt water and open ocean in the distance.

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12z CMC shows the landfall of a weak Tropical Storm Chantal right over my house:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
Quoting 51. boltdwright:


Well said number 1, and well said number 2. As I also recall in many of their forecaster discussions, the NHC did not blindly rely on models as someone on this blog implied. They typically listed ALL scenarios that Chantal could have acted out. As I recall, they mentioned numerous times that Chantal could dissipate over Haiti, and sure enough it did.

Also for all those attacking the NHC about being too aggressive, what would have happened if the NHC under-forecasted Chantal. I bet many on here would be eager to start throwing the first stone at the NHC. They're doing their best and I can assure you they know a lot more about the weather than you and I.


At the end of the day we still do a better job forecasting the weather than we do predicting earthquakes...heck even the stock market for that matter :)
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Quoting 187. PrivateIdaho:


reminded me of this pott....River cleanups reveal bottled secrets


A fantasy everyone has at least once...
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


reminded me of this pott....River cleanups reveal bottled secrets

Nice !
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Quoting 181. pottery:

How about increasing the range of the PR radar. Possible ?


True.............Looked up a "cost" answer on Wiki and it indicated a cost of about 2 million US per site.

Here is scoop from NOAA of what we are talking about and they mention a few overseas locations; I would assume Puerto Rico is one of those sites:

What is NEXRAD?
The Next Generation Weather Radar system (NEXRAD) comprises 159 Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) sites throughout the United States and select overseas locations. This system is a joint effort of the United States Departments of Commerce (DOC), Defense (DOD), and Transportation (DOT). The controlling agencies are the National Weather Service (NWS), Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), respectively. Level II data are the three meteorological base data quantities: reflectivity, mean radial velocity, and spectrum width. From these quantities, computer processing generates numerous meteorological analysis products known as Level III data. Level II data are recorded at all NWS and several select CONUS DOD WSR-88D sites. Level III products are recorded at 155 of the 159 sites. The data are sent to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for archiving and dissemination.

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192. wxmod
This is a wide view of the arctic ice cap today showing that the ice is getting very thin. The ocean color is showing through where it is not cloud covered. MODIS satellite image.

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img src="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlanti c/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

The vort thats with ou blob should move wnw into eastern Gulf possible west FL
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Quoting 151. stormpetrol:


Watch the last few frames of this radar. winds out of the WNW in Negril point, Jamaica, just sayin


She's alive! Presenting well on satellite as well. You have good eyes to find that spin.
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Quoting 154. tornadodude:
I was going through some of my footage from this past tornado season, and I found this video I forgot about just east of a town called Bennington, Kansas.

This tornado was rated an ef4, killed 100 cows, and luckily stayed about a mile or so west of this town. It was on the ground for almost an hour, and it only moved about a mile. In fact, it actually moved back west slightly.





"Tie a Ribbon around the old oak tree... It's been three long years..."

What a weird track
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Quoting JustDucky251:


Here in Mobile, we're about to grow mold in the air! I'm getting tired of generating a river of condensate from my facility's AC system. If I knew how, I'd be glad to ship some your way.

LOLOL, I know the feeling !
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Quoting 176. pottery:
Post i69, Mike.
Nice one.

reminds me that about 30 yrs ago my daughter dropped a note in a bottle over the side as we were sailing in The Grenadines.
Several months later, she got a package from Grand Cayman, from a lady whose little girl had found it (with barnacles and all) on the beach.

Daughter was thrilled !


reminded me of this pott....River cleanups reveal bottled secrets
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Just when you thought it was safe to go out into the water
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:





Looks like a circulation may be forming in that big beautiful blob between Jamaica and Cuba

Looks like you were right about Chantal.
Right now, she may come to visit you !
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Quoting 157. pottery:

So they keep saying, LOL.
Right now, I want some of those long, drippy, dreary, ITCZ days, when the mildew starts to sprout in the clothes-closet and you long to see the sun....

It's supposed to be Rainy Season, but it looks like another week of scattered showers of no consequence.


Here in Mobile, we're about to grow mold in the air! I'm getting tired of generating a river of condensate from my facility's AC system. If I knew how, I'd be glad to ship some your way.
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12z CMC - headed for North Carolina as an intensifying but low-grade tropical storm.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
Quoting 151. stormpetrol:


Watch the last few frames of this radar. winds out of the WNW in Negril point, Jamaica, just sayin



Quoting 155. hydrus:
Thats some very warm water where that convection is.
Quoting 158. Patrap:


Yup



Looks like a circulation may be forming in that big beautiful blob between Jamaica and Cuba
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Don't have a clue but it would really help to cover that "gap" between the Puerto Rican and Cuban radar sites during hurricane season.

How about increasing the range of the PR radar. Possible ?
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So the NHC put ex- Chantel off the north coast of eastern Cuba. In that case, if it has cleared the mountains, all it needs to face now is the hostile shear and dry air.
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Any veterans on here have thoughts on the big burst of convection just south of Cuba?
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Quoting 174. JustDucky251:


Any estimate of how much a site like that might cost? It sounds like a great idea.


Don't have a clue but it would really help to cover that "gap" between the Puerto Rican and Cuban radar sites during hurricane season.
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177. 7544
Quoting 175. Patrap:


blob alert !!
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6617
Post i69, Mike.
Nice one.

reminds me that about 30 yrs ago my daughter dropped a note in a bottle over the side as we were sailing in The Grenadines.
Several months later, she got a package from Grand Cayman, from a lady whose little girl had found it (with barnacles and all) on the beach.

Daughter was thrilled !
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Quoting 161. weathermanwannabe:
On a Haiti/Hispanola related note, and the weather issues they frequently face during hurricane season, I know that they get international aid monies on a pretty frequent basis due to natural disasters.

Someone needs to look into the matter of funding a good Doppler Radar site on the Island; they were "cut loose" from France a long time ago and don't have the resources to fund a weather service or have the benefit of French support as we saw yesterday viewing the French radars on Montinique that NHC noted in their am discussion on Chantal.

That would be money well spent and I am sure that US Mets/Noaa would be happy to help install and train local folks on maintenance issues as it would provide a great service to us in the US as well during hurricane season.


Any estimate of how much a site like that might cost? It sounds like a great idea.
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Ugh
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Quoting 142. nfloridandr:
glad to hear it's not too bad and that everyone can find fun in all this rain. I guess I should clarify the "dr" part. It is really "ndr" which stands for Nazarene disaster response. I am the coordinator for the Alabama south district (even though I live in florida). we have served after hurricanes Katrina, ivan, Isaac as well as the enterprise tornado 2007 and the north Alabama tornadoes of 2011 as well as others. we are multi faceted serving in many different areas of disaster response.
Thanks so much for your service! Being so close to the Alabama border, I know that this area in particular can be limited in their resources and they are often in great need of support when disaster strikes. .....(Sorry for the assumption that the "n" made up "floridan"...Lol)
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There's also a 'spin' over the Fl Straights. Is that the remnants of Chantal? An ULL? It shows up in the water vapor loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.h tml
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nice spin at 30 west and 15 north
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 11012
Message in a bottle: Note found amid Sandy debris is from dead girl


Sidonie Fery set loose a message in a bottle as a 10-year-old girl off the coast of Long Island. A decade later, that bottle has washed up.


Mimi Fery poses for a photograph Tuesday, July 9, 2013, in New York. Her daughter, Sidonie Fery, was about 10 years old when she and a playmate placed a note inside a ginger ale bottle and threw it in the Great South Bay off Long Island. Sidonie was tragically killed in a fall at a Swiss boarding school in 2010. But two years later, as workers were cleaning up a Patchogue, Long Island, beach after Superstorm Sandy, they discovered the note Sidonie had sent. Although it only traveled a mile or two from where it was deposited, the message now has special meaning for Mimi. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Whole Story
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168. wxmod
The ice all over the arctic is extremely thin right now and will probably melt very quickly for the next month and a half.

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CMC landfall South Carolina:



GFS landfall South Carolina:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6676
wow! The clouds are exploding SE of Cuba. It's a bit alarming.
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Lol.Everytime some one post something against me here comes Tigerosee to go and plus it.Having other people do your dirty work eh while hiding in the background?.Done like a true cow..never mind.
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164. wxmod
A huge area of the arctic is covered with clouds like these today. Lots of jets up there too, leaving obvious trails.

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On waves of love my heart is breaking
And stranger still my self control
I can't rely on anymore
New tides surprise my world it's changing
Within this frame an ocean swells
Behind this smile I know it well
Beneath a lover's moon I'm waiting
I am the pilot of the storm Adrift in pleasure I may drown
I built this ship it is my making
And furthermore my self control I can't rely on anymore
I know why I know why
Crazy on a ship of fools Crazy on a ship of fools
Turn this boat around back to my loving ground Oh no, oh no
Who claims that no man is an island
While I land up in jeopardy
More distant from you by degrees
I walk this shore in isolation
And at my feet eternity tries ever sweeter plans for me
I know why I know why
Crazy on a ship of fools
Oh, crazy on a ship of fools
Turn this boat around back to my loving ground
Oh no, oh no Ship of fools
Turn this boat around back to my loving ground Oh no,
oh Crazy on a ship of fools Oh, crazy on a ship of fools
Turn this boat around back to my loving ground Oh no, oh no Ship of fools


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Nice vid. Dude!
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On a Haiti/Hispanola related note, and the weather issues they frequently face during hurricane season, I know that they get international aid monies on a pretty frequent basis due to natural disasters.

Someone needs to look into the matter of funding a good Doppler Radar site on the Island; they were "cut loose" from France a long time ago and don't have the resources to fund a weather service or have the benefit of French support as we saw yesterday viewing the French radars on Montinique that NHC noted in their am discussion on Chantal.

That would be money well spent and I am sure that US Mets/Noaa would be happy to help install and train local folks on maintenance issues as it would provide a great service to us in the US as well during hurricane season.
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Interesting...



And in case you missed it this was the 00z run of the CMC:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6676
159. 7544
someone might have to post a blob alert wheres gro for the cuba blow up will that be moving north or move due west tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6617
Quoting 155. hydrus:
Thats some very warm water where that convection is.


Yup

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Quoting hydrus:
Hello Pott..Wont be long until we,ll be tracking more than one system simultaneously.

So they keep saying, LOL.
Right now, I want some of those long, drippy, dreary, ITCZ days, when the mildew starts to sprout in the clothes-closet and you long to see the sun....

It's supposed to be Rainy Season, but it looks like another week of scattered showers of no consequence.
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Meanwhile in Texas. I'm back in it. Almost the whole state again.

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Quoting 150. Patrap:
Thats some very warm water where that convection is.
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I was going through some of my footage from this past tornado season, and I found this video I forgot about just east of a town called Bennington, Kansas.

This tornado was rated an ef4, killed 100 cows, and luckily stayed about a mile or so west of this town. It was on the ground for almost an hour, and it only moved about a mile. In fact, it actually moved back west slightly.



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Quoting mikatnight:


Thanks. It was an on-again, off-again problem, but I finally saw the light.

heheheheh, you were Saved !
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.