Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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253. 7544
Quoting 242. stormpetrol:
Anybody else experiencing a problem with the Satellite loops?
Quoting 248. Saltydogbwi1:


not sat loops but seems like our 400km radar image is down for me 250 km works just not 400


yes scince yesterday i posted ealier they are all blinking except for the visable one i think it depends where u are located .
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This is the vigorous mid-level spin some of us were referring to last night. It's also the area that the 12z runs of the CMC and GFS are now developing into a tropical cyclone. It might have a decent chance once the trough to the north lifts out and is replaced with high pressure as this would help with surface convergence. As of now, it's mostly mid-level. Shear is currently not too strong.



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting 242. stormpetrol:
Anybody else experiencing a problem with the Satellite loops?


I am getting blanks for the last 2 readings (hour) from the NHC. I'm too dumb to find the other loops.
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Quoting 239. 7544:
hmmmm things might get very interesting soon .
Agreed!!, I just post my concerns, a lot of heavy convention south of Cuba in the area of what might be the remanants of the low level of circulation,we don't want any last minute surprises here in South Florida or any other places for that matter.
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Quoting 242. stormpetrol:
Anybody else experiencing a problem with the Satellite loops?


not sat loops but seems like our 400km radar image is down for me 250 km works just not 400
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Quoting 234. stormpetrol:
Link

If you look at this loop , you can clearly see a LLC near 19.5N/79.5W looks like it trying to outrun the main convection.


I see it, but she's getting sheared pretty bad right now.
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Quoting 242. stormpetrol:
Anybody else experiencing a problem with the Satellite loops?
Yes,we have problems with the Satellite loops since yesterday morning!! this things happens at the worse moments!!.Right now mine is working better!,thanks god!! because we are keeping a very close eye on the remanants of Chantal,in my humble opinion things are getting very interesting South & North of Cuba,we don't want any last minute surprises with this systems,a lot of convention in the last few hours!!!,maybe the CMC model was correct after all.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Anybody else experiencing a problem with the Satellite loops?

Nope.
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The passage of Chantal this week lead to multiple reports of tornadoes and water spouts causing minor damage here on the island of Antigua. http://www.antiguaobserver.com/tornado-hits-antigu a/
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Anybody else experiencing a problem with the Satellite loops?
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The fat lady has a frog in her throat..long live Chantal.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
Quoting hurricanes2018:
30 west peolpe

Seems not to be generating too much interest.
I've been watching that area today, and will keep one eye on it.
I've got the other eye on lunch....
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239. 7544
hmmmm things might get very interesting soon .
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Quoting 216. Dodabear:


Consider the guards they would have to hire to protect it and how to house the workers for the station might be a logistic nightmare. The risk of getting people hurt on both sides might be too high.


I agree that should all go into the cost vs benefit analysis. May I ask you how many might get hurt in a TS?

A radar mounted on a ship or mobile platform would help resolve some of your security concerns. ...Thought that type of system might not be as secure in a storm passage.
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Quoting 222. TXCWC:
are you kidding me? 12Z GFS quoting terminator "it absolutely will not stop..."

30hrs

It's starting to "notice" that wave south of the islands in the Atlantic.
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The wind sheer and ULL are keeping the remnants at bay for the time being.........Given the last several days on here, I hope that it never regenerates.........
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Link

If you look at this loop , you can clearly see a LLC near 19.5N/79.5W looks like it trying to outrun the main convection.
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(We'll be singing, when we're winning, we'll be singing)

I get knocked down, but I get up again
You nay ever gonna keep me down


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Quoting 212. longislander102:


So, if it develops, would it be Dorian then? Or because it was part of Chantal would they keep it that?



There was a lengthy discussion on that last night. Me personally; If they both develop I would name them the Chantals. If only one developed it would obviously be Chantal. But again that's only my thoughts.

As far as what will actually happen with the naming (or re-naming): I refuse to speculate on what the NHC will do at any time. I also refuse to bet on rigged games.
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231. skook
The blog south of Cuba, looks to be encountering moderate to heavy shear, and most likely won't amount to anything other than some heavy rain.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


ExChantal has basically split in 2 leaving 2 pieces of energy, the LLC headed west in the NW Caribbean and the MLC headed north into the Bahamas, could actually become 2 different cyclones in a day or 2, just my take

Well, I think it was Grothar who said (several days ago) that Chantal would pass between Jam & Cuba.

So, it was Written.
The BlobMiester observed, spoke, and writ.
We mere Mortals need to recognise Genius when we are confronted with it.
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Tired of that! Still no rain in sight! All for the Windwards.

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All I ask is that I want another Igor,Isaac(2001),Alberto(2000) or a Danelle(2004,2010).Thats all I ask.All beautiful storms that stayed out to sea.I have weak storm syndrome.
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Windfinder, which posts forecast directly from the runs of the GFS, shows I get 35kt winds (tropical storm force) with wind gusts to 43kts at 2:00am tonight.



Which is supported by the GFS actually. There is a little sliver of greenish-yellow color right over Nassau at the same time.



Might be an interesting night for sure!
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 18N28W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS COINCIDES
WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF 14N29W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVE MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 24W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N
BETWEEN 27W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N43W TO 14N41W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH LOW-LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD VERTICALLY THROUGH 700 MB S OF 14N BETWEEN 38W-47W. A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE
AXIS AND THIS IS RESULTING IN LIMITED CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE
AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N
BETWEEN 41W-44W.
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Chantal split in two as it traversed Hispaniola yesterday, so the discovery is not new, we jaw jacked it to death last night.
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Quoting 203. nrtiwlnvragn:


NHC planning to investigate on the way to you


REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 12/1530Z
D. 28.5N 77.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


hmmm, Just looking at the coordinates there; Seems to me they should be looking at the blob south of Cuba, not the northern pieces.
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Quoting 216. Dodabear:


Consider the guards they would have to hire to protect it and how to house the workers for the station might be a logistic nightmare. The risk of getting people hurt on both sides might be too high.


It quite true that is part of the calculation that has to be made, but considering the positive effect such information might give (including better info for services on Haiti), I think a case can be made that the cost/ben ratio would be pretty good.
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222. TXCWC
are you kidding me? 12Z GFS quoting terminator "it absolutely will not stop..."

30hrs

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Quoting 66. Levi32:
I agree with the sentiments advocating respect for the NHC and what they do. It's very hard to understand what they go through when the public is watching every forecast. I certainly didn't understand a few years ago, and I still don't, but I've been getting a small glimpse lately as more and more people start to view my blogs. Your forecasting will change big-time when thousands of eyes are on you, period. The NHC has the most eyes of all on them, numbering in the millions. What they have to attempt to do each season is one of the greatest challenges in meteorology, and to ever suggest that they slack on their job is the farthest thing from the truth.

It should be noted, however, that as amateur or private-sector forecasters, disagreeing with the all-star team is ok. I strongly believe that the greatest thing that can push meteorology forward is the fight between meteorologists to be the best at forecasting. Competition drives innovation. However, it should always be done with class. Sometimes you might catch something the NHC didn't, but many times they will be better than you. We're all on the same team, and our primary goal is to save lives. The NHC saves thousands of them every time a major hurricane makes landfall. We can only hope to be a drop in the ocean that extends that live-saving influence to more people.
Well said...You have a tremendous future ahead of you in meteorology...
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ExChantal has basically split in 2 leaving 2 pieces of energy, the LLC headed west in the NW Caribbean and the MLC headed north into the Bahamas, could actually become 2 different cyclones in a day or 2, just my take
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Loads of Sahara Dust here right now.
Visibility 6.2 miles.
Horrid.
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30 west peolpe
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:


"Tie a Ribbon around the old oak tree... It's been three long years..."

What a weird track


Well, that day, there was a lot of CAPE (3,000-5,000jkg), a lot of low level shear (0-1km helicity was around 200 meters squared per second), but the upper level winds were rather weak (500mb winds were around 15-20 knots). So, the storm was explosive, tapped into the low level shear, and produced a big violent tornado. However, with weak upper level winds, the storm barely moved and began to rain on its own updraft.

In order for a supercell to be sustained, the rain and hail blown up in the updraft have to be blown downwind from the updraft, or else the storm will choke itself off. You need a tilted updraft to have a long lived supercell. With weak upper level winds, the updraft wasn't very titled, thus the storm moved little and collapsed on itself within a couple of hours.




It's like a garden hose, point it straight up, and the water falls back down on the hose. Tilt it to the side a little, and it sprays downstream from the source.

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting 206. MechEngMet:


Well you just summed it up right there. NOAA and NHC are govt. not private. You are correct that in the private sector that is a no-brainer decision. However when gov. is involved the real interests are never as clear.


Consider the guards they would have to hire to protect it and how to house the workers for the station might be a logistic nightmare. The risk of getting people hurt on both sides might be too high.
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Is everyone out to lunch? Or just lurking?
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214. 7544
Quoting 210. GetReal:


blob moving wnw or nw ? tia
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Quoting 210. GetReal:


So... anyone else see a little spin in the central Bahamas? I feel like that could be what the CMC is predicting/picking up on.
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Quoting 201. MechEngMet:


That's a piece of her for sure. She's not done yet.


So, if it develops, would it be Dorian then? Or because it was part of Chantal would they keep it that?
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Tropical storm Chantal's main area of rotation is off the north coast of Cuba. The area south of Cuba is where the low level flow became pinched between Jamaica and Cuba as well as increased upper level divergence (and Shear) from the upper level low.

There is a trough as well in the area that extends from Ex Chantals main vort area in the Bahamas all the way south and west to around 17N 81W. Along it there are several swirls causing weird wind directions. The convective area is also beginning to outflow out (What else is new with this system) which should cause this portion of the trough to move into a less favorable upper level environment for convection south of the base of the upper level low.

The real portion to watch is the northern end as is moves/remains in an area of around 20kts of shear. The huge area of shear off the east coast is spreading north and eastward away as the trough digs in and eventually the area of low shear located just inland in the United States will spread out over the area that North Chantal will be moving into. This is what needs to be watched.
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I really hope we don't have a dozen of weak storms again this year, like 2012 and 2011.
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Quoting 202. JustDucky251:


Considering the effect that these storms/waves have on shipping, naval facilities and tracking, Gitmo, and commercial transport it would seem that a station in Haiti could very well have a good ROI with a payback in the 1-2 year range. In the corporate world that is practically a "gimmee". Not having one seems to be penny wise and pound foolish.


Well you just summed it up right there. NOAA and NHC are govt. not private. You are correct that in the private sector that is a no-brainer decision. However when gov. is involved the real interests are never as clear.
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Speaking of radars, here is the link to the Cuban (Pilon) one closest to that area between Cuba and Jamaica folks are discussing. Do not see any rotation signatures on this loop; only the continued trade wind movement toward the West that Chantal was embedded in yesterday:

Link

Addition; although you will note that the loop on here ends at 7:30 am this morning......Maybe there is a delay and not in real time on this site.
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Quoting 194. pottery:

Nice !


The last paragraph (River cleanups reveal bottled secrets), poignant:

CNN: Do you have a favorite message?

Pregracke: I do. It's a song that was written for guitar called "Lavender Is You." It was thrown into the Wabash River and then went into the Ohio River. It's a love song. It's sheet music. ....
There's actually a lot of them that are pretty heavy, you know? They're not treasure maps, but they were written to a lost loved one. ... You don't want to keep it, because it was meant not to be kept. So you just kind of send those on, even though it feels weird letting a bottle go on.
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Quoting 197. TropicalAnalystwx13:
12z CMC shows the landfall of a weak Tropical Storm Chantal right over my house:



NHC planning to investigate on the way to you


REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 12/1530Z
D. 28.5N 77.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.