Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 279. Thrawst:


Ehh, not so sure about your wind shear statement. See the high cirrus clouds blasting eastwards over the NW Caribbean and flowing straight over your Blob?:



The entity over the Bahamas is north of that wind shear belt and is in a sense being ventilated by the ULL to the west which is backing away from it and is creating that wind shear over your blob. I wouldn't be surprised to see the entity over the Bahamas pull a fast one.


Look again I didn't say that Carib was lower than Bahamas right now Carib is getting about 20kts ands Bahamas is getting about 15kts however shear is increasing in the Bahamas and shear is decreasing in the NW Caribbean soon I think we would see 20kts over Bahamas and 15kts over NW Caribbean

Quoting 285. Envoirment:


I'm not sure if it's my eyes, but there seems to be some sort of circulation trying to get going in the center of the blob, just off the coast of Cuba. (click to enlarge)


Yep sure looks that way

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Quoting 266. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Outflow boundary heading your way...we had some rain this morning too which is becoming the usual here now.


This area just exploded over Gulport/Biloxi with extremely heavy rain and lightening for the last 20 minutes.
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Oh nevermind my earlier post- it appears both areas in the Caribbean and Bahamas are part of the same "system"...
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Quoting 293. unknowncomic:
This means we could still have our left turning cyclone after all.
I'm still not ruling out North Carolina southward along the East Coast. Look for the dynamical models, the GFS and CMC to get incorporated into the 18z guidance. It will be interesting to see if HWRF and GFDL also run.
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Quoting 270. MississippiWx:


Amazing what the NHC does with a little model support. Lol. Bumped up the percentages, sending out a plane, and all of the sudden winds are supposed to be more conducive. Watch out if you're along the SE coastline.


What does steering say, a track towards the NW Bahamas/Florida and then into South Carolina?
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 775
Quoting 283. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hurricane Igor was the worst storm to hit Newfoundland on record according to Environment Canada.


The hurricae from 1775 is Canada's deadliest natural disasters. Not many records about it but it did kill over 4000 people.
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297. beell
Nicely stacked system with favorable upper level winds for a day or two in the 12Z GFS. Alignment issues in yesterday's runs not present.


07/11 12Z GFS 850 mb, 700mb-Valid 8pm EDT, Thursday


07/11 12Z GFS 500 mb, 200mb-Valid 8pm EDT, Thursday

click to open in new window
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Quoting 279. Thrawst:


Ehh, not so sure about your wind shear statement. See the high cirrus clouds blasting eastwards over the NW Caribbean and flowing straight over your Blob?:



The entity over the Bahamas is north of that wind shear belt and is in a sense being ventilated by the ULL to the west which is backing away from it and is creating that wind shear over your blob. I wouldn't be surprised to see the entity over the Bahamas pull a fast one.
Oh my is Chantal getting a faint heartbeat again? I knew she was gonna be a tricky one.Just have to wait and see.
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What if both areas develop? They both look good in their own ways...Bahamas with lesser shear, Caribbean area with stronger storms and with persistence may get into a more favorable environment...I really
wonder if they could both turn into something...
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294. Tygor
Quoting 290. Qazulight:


Nacogdoches is dry too. Lananna creek has about quit flowing. I am watering my grass every third day. No fires yet though.

We need some rain!

Cheers
Qazulight


You are able to water your grass that often? I can only water two hours one day a week and threatening to make that every other week :(
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Quoting 288. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Tropical Wave Chantal:



Quoting 288. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Tropical Wave Chantal:



This means we could still have our left turning cyclone after all.
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Quoting 277. washingtonian115:
I'm talking about when they were at their strongest.Where's tigerosee to plus your comment now.lol.


Who's that? lol. I'm just was saying it didn't go out to sea. Igor gets remembered as a fish that should have been cat five, when it was not a fish. Caused a lot of people to lose their homes.
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Quoting 275. TexasHurricane05:
Channel 12, SE TX

A lack of rainfall is making the drought situation in Southeast Texas a little bit worse. For the month of June we should average about 7.09 inches of rain, making June the wettest month of the year. Instead we only received 3.17 inches leaving us 3.92 inches below normal for the month. Now for July, we have only managed a meager 0.08 inches. We should have already picked up around 2.19 inches this month. In total we are an astonishing 6.03 inches below normal since June 1st. Now for the entire year we are still slightly above average, but that number continues to drop closer to zero. As of January 1st, we are only 1.25 inches above normal.

Jefferson, Hardin, and Tyler counties are experiencing a moderate drought. While northwest Newton, south Jasper, and all of Orange county are suffering from abnormally dry conditions.

This summer has consisted of pop-up storms that only last for a short period of time. We simply need more widespread rain to relieve the developing drought.

I think a good tropical Storm would do nicely...NOTHING MAJOR, just a good rain maker to cover all of TX. :)


Nacogdoches is dry too. Lananna creek has about quit flowing. I am watering my grass every third day. No fires yet though.

We need some rain!

Cheers
Qazulight
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Tropical Wave Chantal:



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Sorry, don't know why it double posted.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 874
Good afternoon.....here we go again folks

Link
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I'm not sure if it's my eyes, but there seems to be some sort of circulation trying to get going in the center of the blob, just off the coast of Cuba. (click to enlarge)

Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 874
I'm in Negril right, just periodic light rain and thunder, hoping this lifts out tomorrow for our last day:/
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Quoting 267. Dragod66:


Igor was the most destructive Hurricane to hit Newfoundland since the 1775 Hurricane. Please don't forget about your northern neighbours. :)

Hurricane Igor was the worst storm to hit Newfoundland on record according to Environment Canada.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32347
Quoting 279. Thrawst:


Ehh, not so sure about your wind shear statement. See the high cirrus clouds blasting eastwards over the NW Caribbean and flowing straight over your Blob?:



The entity over the Bahamas is north of that wind shear belt and is in a sense being ventilated by the ULL to the west which is backing away from it and is creating that wind shear over your blob. I wouldn't be surprised to see the entity over the Bahamas pull a fast one.
That is exactly my thinking and has model support.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting 268. wunderkidcayman:
There seems to be a good LLC developing in the NW Caribbean looking at floater sat loop and click on winds you can see winds in Jamaica has turned SW winds in Cuba just N of Jamaica show E winds and further E of Cuba has SE winds


I'm under that mess along the northern GOM. Hope it doesn't do anything or just drifts off to Texas where it could be useful.
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Quoting 256. wunderkidcayman:
It's interesting the blob in NW Caribbean has good low level convergence and very good upper level divergence and decreasing shear while the entity in Bahamas has no low level convergence what so ever and weak but ok upper level divergence and increasing shear


Ehh, not so sure about your wind shear statement. See the high cirrus clouds blasting eastwards over the NW Caribbean and flowing straight over your Blob?:



The entity over the Bahamas is north of that wind shear belt and is in a sense being ventilated by the ULL to the west which is backing away from it and is creating that wind shear over your blob. I wouldn't be surprised to see the entity over the Bahamas pull a fast one.
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Quoting 276. stormchaser19:
SST in MDR would tend to rise,now that CFS is calling for a cease of the trade winds

Which is a good things for storms to come
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Quoting 267. Dragod66:


Igor was the most destructive Hurricane to hit Newfoundland since the 1775 Hurricane. Please don't forget about your northern neighbours. :)
I'm talking about when they were at their strongest.Where's tigerosee to plus your comment now.lol.
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SST in MDR would tend to rise,now that CFS is calling for a cease of the trade winds
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Channel 12, SE TX

A lack of rainfall is making the drought situation in Southeast Texas a little bit worse. For the month of June we should average about 7.09 inches of rain, making June the wettest month of the year. Instead we only received 3.17 inches leaving us 3.92 inches below normal for the month. Now for July, we have only managed a meager 0.08 inches. We should have already picked up around 2.19 inches this month. In total we are an astonishing 6.03 inches below normal since June 1st. Now for the entire year we are still slightly above average, but that number continues to drop closer to zero. As of January 1st, we are only 1.25 inches above normal.

Jefferson, Hardin, and Tyler counties are experiencing a moderate drought. While northwest Newton, south Jasper, and all of Orange county are suffering from abnormally dry conditions.

This summer has consisted of pop-up storms that only last for a short period of time. We simply need more widespread rain to relieve the developing drought.

I think a good tropical Storm would do nicely...NOTHING MAJOR, just a good rain maker to cover all of TX. :)
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Hard to keep track of all of the swirls and whirls out there from Cuba up through the Bahamas......That mid-level swirl that MSWx is referring to (on the vis loops) is just due north of San Salvador island in the Bahamas moving North but getting sheared at the upper levels.
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Quoting 260. Patrap:


Yea, I been watch'n dat.
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While the Blog waits for Mother Natures next move...until Chantal comes back...or....the next big thing becomes clear, enjoy Mr. Buffet's take on the season.

Ode to Hurricane season
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Quoting 269. Patrap:


Thank you for posting this twice within 100 posts, I was starting to get worried.
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Quoting 264. Tropicsweatherpr:
Up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Amazing what the NHC does with a little model support. Lol. Bumped up the percentages, sending out a plane, and all of the sudden winds are supposed to be more conducive. Watch out if you're along the SE coastline.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
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There seems to be a good LLC developing in the NW Caribbean looking at floater sat loop and click on winds you can see winds in Jamaica has turned SW winds in Cuba just N of Jamaica show E winds and further E of Cuba has SE winds
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Quoting 228. washingtonian115:
All I ask is that I want another Igor,Isaac(2001),Alberto(2000) or a Danelle(2004,2010).Thats all I ask.All beautiful storms that stayed out to sea.I have weak storm syndrome.


Igor was the most destructive Hurricane to hit Newfoundland since the 1775 Hurricane. Please don't forget about your northern neighbours. :)
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Quoting 260. Patrap:
Outflow boundary heading your way...we had some rain this morning too which is becoming the usual here now.
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wow!! the blob that was between Jamaica and Cuba just exploded and is now covering Jamaica!! Die Chantal Die!! Or at least send your remnants to Texas and Mexico!!!!!
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Up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Quoting 252. MississippiWx:
This is the vigorous mid-level spin some of us were referring to last night. It's also the area that the 12z runs of the CMC and GFS are now developing into a tropical cyclone. It might have a decent chance once the trough to the north lifts out and is replaced with high pressure as this would help with surface convergence. As of now, it's mostly mid-level. Shear is currently not too strong.




I think the NHC is, understandably, being conservative with the chances of redevelopment of this feature. They cite hostile conditions, but I only see 20 knots of wind shear at maximum.

Should see that mid-level center re-position farther southwest with the low-level vorticity maximum over the northeast coast of Cuba.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32347
Quoting 256. wunderkidcayman:
It's interesting the blob in NW Caribbean has good low level convergence and very good upper level divergence and decreasing shear while the entity in Bahamas has no low level convergence what so ever and weak but ok upper level divergence and increasing shear


So you're thinking the HH should consider looking for a mission further south??
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Quoting 256. wunderkidcayman:
It's interesting the blob in NW Caribbean has good low level convergence and very good upper level divergence and decreasing shear while the entity in Bahamas has no low level convergence what so ever and weak but ok upper level divergence and increasing shear


The area in the Caribbean has ~20kts of shear, but it's heading into an area of lighter shear of ~10-15kts. It also seems to have a little more going for it at the surface, even though 850mb vort maps do not specifically show it yet. I wouldn't give up on that area just yet either.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
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Quoting 252. MississippiWx:
This is the vigorous mid-level spin some of us were referring to last night. It's also the area that the 12z runs of the CMC and GFS are now developing into a tropical cyclone. It might have a decent chance once the trough to the north lifts out and is replaced with high pressure as this would help with surface convergence. As of now, it's mostly mid-level. Shear is currently not too strong.



Good eye I didn't noticed that as I was watching what everybody else is watching the blob to the south of Cuba, but I agree this would be the best the area for redevelopment to occur as wind shear is running lower in this area the vorticity is increasing in this area as well, so now we wait to see if it spins down to the surface. The ULL might also help in providing ventilation and outflow to the system.
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Quoting 253. 7544:


yes scince yesterday i posted ealier they are all blinking except for the visable one i think it depends where u are located .


Try a different browser.
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I'm more interested in that wave out in the central Atlantic.As Hydrus would say it has that text book look to it and shear is low out there and decreasing in the Caribbean.
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It's interesting the blob in NW Caribbean has good low level convergence and very good upper level divergence and decreasing shear while the entity in Bahamas has no low level convergence what so ever and weak but ok upper level divergence and increasing shear
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So the 12z gfs brings ex Chantal right off miamI?
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253. 7544
Quoting 242. stormpetrol:
Anybody else experiencing a problem with the Satellite loops?
Quoting 248. Saltydogbwi1:


not sat loops but seems like our 400km radar image is down for me 250 km works just not 400


yes scince yesterday i posted ealier they are all blinking except for the visable one i think it depends where u are located .
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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