Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
110 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

MSC085-111830-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0352.000000T0000Z-130711T1830Z/
LINCOLN MS-
110 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 110 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST LINCOLN MOVING SOUTH AT
30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ENTERPRISE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

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I'm ready here, have tarp over Backyard furniture, Loose items secured.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
The wind at Grand Cayman has backed 20-30 degrees over the last 3 hours as ex-Chantal's old tropical wave axis approaches.

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350. MTWX
Quoting 260. Patrap:


Have fun with that Pat!! It gave us a good 4" this morning with some wicked flash flooding!!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Good day, I have a question , what if the new center of the new or old Chantal forms south of Cuba ? Then what happens , does the west coast of Florida come into play ?
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The only thing I will note for the time being is that the mid-level swirl North of San Salvador appears to be booking pretty quickly to the North (almost if not quicker than the 29 mph than Chantal was moving at through the Northern Caribbean).

It, too, needs to slow down if it is trying to work it's way down to the surface; either way, looks like rain and gusty winds headed towards the Carolinas and Outer Banks area in the next 24-48 hours.

Be back a little later Folks.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
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Quoting 339. 69Viking:
Water logged in NW Florida again, will it ever stop!? Does anybody see the radar image or is it a red x for everyone?

Red x for me vike. See 101? WUmail me if get chance, tia.
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Quoting 339. 69Viking:
Water logged in NW Florida again, will it ever stop!? Does anybody see the radar image or is it a red x for everyone?



Just a small square here in chrome.

Try the preview comment to check before posting
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
72 hours
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Quoting 333. wunderkidcayman:

There is no indication of any low level circulation in the whole of Bahamas based on surface obs
Look at post 327 and 288.
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Water logged in NW Florida again, will it ever stop!? Does anybody see the radar image or is it a red x for everyone?

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Water logged in NW Florida again, will it ever stop!?

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327) Chi town turns from blue to red, Cards fans arriving for 4 game sweep of baby bears!

Dew pt down to 58, 81 w/ slightly higher N to NE winds 5-16, slightly up to 30.01", not a cloud in the sky!
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MetServiceJA ‏@MetserviceJA 2h

Still holding the forecast for 35 to 50mm of rainfall over eastern parishes today.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 316. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would appear the blob on the south coast of Cuba will get fed into the low level circulation along the north coast of Cuba the mid level circulation in the Bahamas will have to realign itself with the low level circulation.

There is no indication of any low level circulation in the whole of Bahamas based on surface obs
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Quoting 328. SouthernIllinois:
Ahhh. Just came in from the pool for lunch. Don't know what I'm doing yet but I'm sure I'll figure it out!!

Funny thing is the remnants of what's left of Chantal actually look better than Chantal ever did when she was Chantal. LOL

Natalie :)

Check her out. Click image for animation:


Hahaha sad, isn't it?
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AL, 03, 2013071118, , BEST, 0, 224N, 780W, 25, 1013, WV
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320. MechEngMet 1:05 PM CDT on July 11, 2013

Another Hour before that Main Line blows thru here, but some discreet cells are firing to the West and could be moving in anytime.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 325. Hurricane1956:
Actually as many already had posted in this blog,the latest GFS shows a landfall in Southern Florida,around the Upper Keys and South Florida.

The 12z GFS takes Chantal into South Carolina...?
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850 mb vorticity


700 mb vorticity


500 mb vorticity


Wind shear continues to disrupt the very broad circulation remnants of Chantal. It's entire column is significantly tilted to the east.
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12z Euro running
24 hours


48 hours


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Quoting 308. weatherlover94:
ok after looking at everything this afternoon here is my best guess with wave Chantal.

-landfall,upper Florida/southern Georgia Coast sometime Sunday into Monday as the steering currents are expected to be weak

- Intensity at landfall POSSIBLE 45 mph Tropical Storm

- Huge rain event

- Little to no storm Surge
Actually as many already had posted in this blog,the latest GFS shows a landfall in Southern Florida,around the Upper Keys and South Florida.
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GFDL ensembles not giving up...........






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Quoting 305. MechEngMet:


The consensus is/was that if both bifurcated blobs re-generate into something/anything then this blog will melt servers.


Yumm! Melted server. My favorite!
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Quoting 314. flsky:


No idea where this is....


Looks like Palm Beach County, Southeast Fl.
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12z CMC..

Chantal

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Quoting 307. Patrap:


Any idea what the ETA is?? Before or after rush hour traffic?
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Quoting 295. GrandCaymanMed:
What if both areas develop? They both look good in their own ways...Bahamas with lesser shear, Caribbean area with stronger storms and with persistence may get into a more favorable environment...I really
wonder if they could both turn into something...


Check out the voriticy map. The area west of Jamaica's vorticity is starting to grow while it appears it is suctioning the vorticity from Cuba.

It would be awesome to see 2 storm form from this. would be one for the record books.
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Quoting 307. Patrap:
Approaching quickly you should be receiving a brief gust of winds anytime now, if I understand outflow boundaries correctly.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good afternoon nigel. What is going on in Jamaica with that blob nearby?

Hey Tropics!

Met Service of Jamaica.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, July 11, 2013 at 5:00 a.m.

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARISHES ***

The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St. Thomas, St. Mary, Portland, Kingston and St Andrew, St Catherine and Clarendon effective until 5:00 p.m. today.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

A strong Tropical Wave (Remnants of Chantal) is currently moving across Jamaica and is influencing weather conditions across the island.

Satellite imagery and radar reports indicate that moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms have been affecting sections of most eastern and some central parishes since last night.

The forecast is for cloudy conditions with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms to continue throughout the day, especially across eastern and central parishes, as the Tropical Wave moves across the island.

Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise caution as strong gusty winds will persist offshore the north and south coasts.
The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.

cdj
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Quoting 310. GeoffreyWPB:
It would appear the blob on the south coast of Cuba will get fed into the low level circulation along the north coast of Cuba the mid level circulation in the Bahamas will have to realign itself with the low level circulation.
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depending on the High it is not out of the question to see lanfall as far north as Myrtle Beach SC
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314. flsky


No idea where this is....
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Quoting 310. GeoffreyWPB:


That is an old animation. Ends at 14:15 UTC (10:15am EDT)
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Quoting 299. FIUStormChaser:


What does steering say, a track towards the NW Bahamas/Florida and then into South Carolina?


Looks that way. Steering should be fairly light for the next 24 hours or so. However, in 48 hours, the Bermuda ridge will build back in from the east and accelerate whatever is left of Chantal to the north for a day before the building ridge over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states halts northward progress.

48 hours:



72 hours:



Also of note is that Chantal could possibly end up between two upper level lows. If she is able to regain TC status, she will likely strengthen all the way until landfall and possibly strengthen quickly. She has to regain her footing though at the surface, a process that is not easily attained.
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Quoting 309. nigel20:
Thanks Dr. Masters...good afternoon all!

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 11 Jul 2013

Average for last 30 days: 7.4
Average for last 90 days: 5.6
Daily contribution to SOI calculation: 11.6


Good afternoon nigel. What is going on in Jamaica with that blob nearby?
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Thanks Dr. Masters...good afternoon all!

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 11 Jul 2013

Average for last 30 days: 7.4
Average for last 90 days: 5.6
Daily contribution to SOI calculation: 11.6
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ok after looking at everything this afternoon here is my best guess with wave Chantal.

-landfall,upper Florida/southern Georgia Coast sometime Sunday into Monday as the steering currents are expected to be weak

- Intensity at landfall POSSIBLE 45 mph Tropical Storm

- Huge rain event

- Little to no storm Surge
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 298. Dragod66:


The hurricae from 1775 is Canada's deadliest natural disasters. Not many records about it but it did kill over 4000 people.

Hey, you said "most destructive", not deadliest. :P
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Quoting 295. GrandCaymanMed:
What if both areas develop? They both look good in their own ways...Bahamas with lesser shear, Caribbean area with stronger storms and with persistence may get into a more favorable environment...I really
wonder if they could both turn into something...


You should have been here last night. We covered just about every possible scenario we could conceive. ...and quite a few inconceivable scenarios as well.

The consensus is/was that if both bifurcated blobs re-generate into something/anything then this blog will melt servers.
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Quoting 294. Tygor:


You are able to water your grass that often? I can only water two hours one day a week and threatening to make that every other week :(


Sorry it has gotten that bad....not that bad here as of yet. Hopefully we can get a good rain maker out of the tropics this year.
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Quoting 279. Thrawst:


Ehh, not so sure about your wind shear statement. See the high cirrus clouds blasting eastwards over the NW Caribbean and flowing straight over your Blob?:



The entity over the Bahamas is north of that wind shear belt and is in a sense being ventilated by the ULL to the west which is backing away from it and is creating that wind shear over your blob. I wouldn't be surprised to see the entity over the Bahamas pull a fast one.


Look again I didn't say that Carib was lower than Bahamas right now Carib is getting about 20kts ands Bahamas is getting about 15kts however shear is increasing in the Bahamas and shear is decreasing in the NW Caribbean soon I think we would see 20kts over Bahamas and 15kts over NW Caribbean

Quoting 285. Envoirment:


I'm not sure if it's my eyes, but there seems to be some sort of circulation trying to get going in the center of the blob, just off the coast of Cuba. (click to enlarge)


Yep sure looks that way

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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