Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 395. TexasHurricane05:


I though it was suppose to go north...


The main "guts" of Chantal did go north. This is the "other half" of Chantal.
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Quoting 398. Patrap:
Somebody get a pot o coffee brewing, we're gonna be noodling dis one out awhile.




I will!
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Quoting 367. mikatnight:


If WU radar, click save image first


Thank you, I seem to have figured it out thanks to your advice! I don't remember having to do that before but I will in future. Thanks again!
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Quoting 394. Levi32:
It is worth noting that the GFS and CMC have likely been initializing their low-level wind fields near Cuba incorrectly. The vorticity lobe just off the north coast of eastern Cuba dominates the wind field, and the northern lobe of the tropical wave south of Cuba is not resolved well at all. Also, neither the GFS nor the CMC predicted the convective flareup currently being observed east of the Caymans. This means the models could potentially be underestimating the strength of the wave. Time will tell.





Could be the vortex specified by the NHC inserted in to the GFS, don't know if CMC has vortex relocation.
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I'm confused. Is this not Chantal anymore?
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Somebody get a pot o coffee brewing, we're gonna be noodling dis one out awhile.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting 396. 69Viking:
Test


It's working.
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Test

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Quoting 373. Levi32:


The convection is expected as the trade wind surge piles in behind the wave axis. Upper-level flow is from a suppressive WNW direction at the moment, but like I said this morning, I think the whole wave should be watched as it nears the Yucatan and eventually crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will be improving as it goes.


I though it was suppose to go north...
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It is worth noting that the GFS and CMC have likely been initializing their low-level wind fields near Cuba incorrectly. The vorticity lobe just off the north coast of eastern Cuba dominates the wind field, and the northern lobe of the tropical wave south of Cuba is not resolved well at all. Also, neither the GFS nor the CMC predicted the convective flareup currently being observed east of the Caymans. This means the models could potentially be underestimating the strength of the wave. Time will tell.



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Quoting 387. indianrivguy:


Well, it "could" be worse... there could be a hurricane raging outside while you are delivering puppies...


That still is like a dream almost a year later irg.

Was a crazy night fer sho'

The Pup's of Hurricane Issac
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
This test failed, still raining here though and got it to work above!
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When do you think we will have a run of names , end of July , or August ? Like D thru H

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Latest water vapour image



It's holding up quite well against the windshear and the big blob has quite a bit of energy.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
389. Ed22
The remnant of chantal could regenerate back to tropical storm once again by Friday afternoon. My odds is higher 50% chance of regenerating back to a tropical storm once again the latest still frame of the system showing a re-organizing system so by Friday the system could be back looking more healthy than earlier this week...
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Quoting 382. mikatnight:
Everytime I see FORECASTER AVILA, I think of 'This Old House'.

LOL Me too!
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Quoting 352. Patrap:
I'm ready here, have tarp over Backyard furniture, Loose items secured.


Well, it "could" be worse... there could be a hurricane raging outside while you are delivering puppies...
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Quoting 381. 10Speed:
I really never like it when I get an unexplainable feeling that something quite bad is about to happen.

I don't think this will become a major hurricane but this might become ts allison in the south carolina and georgia there will be massive flooding of epic proportions.This area is trapped by ull and upper high not going anywhere when make landfall.
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Quoting 373. Levi32:


The convection is expected as the trade wind surge piles in behind the wave axis. Upper-level flow is from a suppressive WNW direction at the moment, but like I said this morning, I think the whole wave should be watched as it nears the Yucatan and eventually crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will be improving as it goes.

Got it..Thanks
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Whelp, didn't see this coming. Heard a small roll of thunder, checked the radar, and poof! Line of storms out of nowhere:

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Thank you, to camille33
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Everytime I see FORECASTER AVILA, I think of 'This Old House'.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
I really never like it when I get an unexplainable feeling that something quite bad is about to happen.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting 376. Patrap:
The Vort just east of the Bahamas is taking shape nicely this afternoon.


Mid level spin
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Quoting 360. Bluestorm5:


Here is what 69Viking was trying to post...



EDIT: Didn't see Pat already posted it.


A big thanks to you and Pat. Just called my son who is home on summer break and he said the rain gauge is up to 1" for today so far and it's still raining. That's puts us at about 12" of rain since July started!
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Quoting 375. EyEtoEyE:
Hey Camille33 , Is that 60 % in the Bahamas or in between Jamaica and Cuba ?

Bahamas...the wave has concerned a vort just off the cuba coast.
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The Vort just east of the Bahamas is taking shape nicely this afternoon.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Hey Camille33 , Is that 60 % in the Bahamas or in between Jamaica and Cuba ?
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Quoting 365. Neyewall:
Hi Levi,
Your thoughts on the blob between Jamaica and Cuba?


The convection is expected as the trade wind surge piles in behind the wave axis. Upper-level flow is from a suppressive WNW direction at the moment, but like I said this morning, I think the whole wave should be watched as it nears the Yucatan and eventually crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will be improving as it goes.
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372. MTWX
What do you know... More rain...

Link

Here around Columbus, we have probably gotten a good 8-10" of rain in the last week!!
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Quoting 364. Patrap:


That baby is comin in strong. You get a lot of rain so far this year?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting 368. islander101010:
orange/alert

Yep this gona be interesting,new video coming soon too.
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Some of this leading edge has rotation noted.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
orange/alert
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Quoting 354. 69Viking:
Ok, why aren't my radar images showing up? I go to the site where the images are, right click and go to properties and then I copy the url for the image and then copy the url as an image in my post. Am I missing something?


If WU radar, click save image first
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting 359. ncstorm:
96 hours..one big area of vorticity heading to Florida

I noted that last night on the GFS and CMC run, I wonder if that is at the surface?
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Hi Levi,
Your thoughts on the blob between Jamaica and Cuba?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853


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What appears to be happening is NW Caribbean is developing that which is in Bahamas is being sucked in or pulled in to the Carib blob and the rest from the E half of the Bhamas and N Bahamas is being dragged NE ward from out flow it does appear that a mid level spin is just E of Bahamas but is being shot away E bound which makes sense because mid level shear does kick out anything in Bahamas upper level shear has increase in the Bahamas and decreased in the NW Caribbean it is also being noted that 850 vort is now being sucked in to the Caribbean blob before it was in the Bahamas off shore of Cuba now is on Cuba moving or being sucked W bound
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361. Siker
My blob could beat up your blob!
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Quoting 338. 69Viking:
Water logged in NW Florida again, will it ever stop!?



Here is what 69Viking was trying to post...



EDIT: Didn't see Pat already posted it.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Quoting 345. Patrap:


Thanks for posting this, been raining here for a few hours now pretty steady, more flood warnings popping up again!
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Ex Chant will be 60% at 8pm !
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Quoting 354. 69Viking:
Ok, why aren't my radar images showing up? I go to the site where the images are, right click and go to properties and then I copy the url for the image and then copy the url as an image in my post. Am I missing something?


Which site?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
I said it be 30% at 2 I think this storm will make landfall in south carolina as a cat 1 hurricane .
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Ok, why aren't my radar images showing up? I go to the site where the images are, right click and go to properties and then I copy the url for the image and then copy the url as an image in my post. Am I missing something?
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
110 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

MSC085-111830-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0352.000000T0000Z-130711T1830Z/
LINCOLN MS-
110 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 110 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST LINCOLN MOVING SOUTH AT
30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ENTERPRISE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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