Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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It looks like were getting storms in the gulf coast. stay safe.
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Keep an eye on Long Range Miami Radar, NHC at 2 PM placed a center south of Andros Island just north of the coast of Cuba.
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wow!!
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Quoting 411. Walshy:
Europeans announce upgrade to weather forecast models after U.S. announces upgrade to catch up with them.



ECMWF (European Model) will be upgrading their supercomputers by 2014: http://goo.gl/GuhM7


Good, competition for higher quality forecast models will vastly improve our ability to not only detect tropical cyclogensis but our ability to track them at a longer range.
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449. MTWX
Quoting 438. Patrap:


Looks to be a steamy evening for ya!!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


So if both remnants of Chantal were to develop would there be two Chantals at the same time? Ops plan does not cover that. J/K about two at the same time.

It's what Blobs do...
They split and multiply, spawning multitudes of nasty little Blobbettes that split and multiply over and over and over.

Head for the hills......
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my god!! did you see this tropical wave maybe a tropical low soon.. if this tropical wave get t.storms with it.. watch out!! very nice spin with it.
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Quoting 421. 69Viking:


I think we're going to get that here in NW FL tomorrow. Today we had a 60% chance of rain to start the day that turned into 100% chance when it started raining. Tomorrow's forecast show's an 80% chance of rain. Crazy July weather we're having.


Seems like sea level must have risen we weren't looking and we are actually under water! Humidity sure seems like it!
Member Since: May 13, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
Quoting 429. indianrivguy:


are you all hunkered down "kid" :)


That is a compliment considering I'll be 49 in November:) ,not really I didn't expect to get the nasty weather I see coming, I think we are going get this a bit more rainy and squally than anyone anticipated, but we'll be ok.
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How fast is the remnants of Chantal moving in the Bahamas?
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Let's say both halves develops. The northern one will be Chantal, while the wave to south of Cuba will be Dorian... is that right?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7913
Those are some soaking totals from both locale from this line.

Thanks for the numbers.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
if the north part develops it could suck in the energy around jamaica.
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Quoting 426. Astrometeor:


Basically the storm has begun to split in two. You have the (as Levi puts it) "guts" of the storm moving north currently in the Bahamas. That would be where the original circulation has gone. Right now it is not at the surface anymore. The large blob of convection south of Cuba is the other half of Chantal, and I believe Levi said that could potentially develop if it moves west into the GOM. Got it?


That's my thoughts, too. I think the old "core" of Chantal was to the south of the main T-storm mass, and has continued along W under Cuba. It is reaching that prime area conducive to growth along Cuba's So. coast and seems to be getting a little bit of the W.-Car. moisture wicking into it now, rebuilding a little. Not sure if that will hold up. Could also start siphoning moisture from the S. Car., too, IMO.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Some nasty weather headed our way


Hey storm!
There's a flash flood watch for central and eastern parishes here in Jamaica. We've isolated cases of flooding in Kingston.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting 413. Patrap:
Some 3 inch per Hour Rain

I got 2.75 in 30min here in Bay ST. Louis. Now thats with a cheezy yard gage.
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Quoting 422. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ex-Chantal split into two last night. A majority of its remnants went north as a surface trough that is currently in the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the sharp wave axis has continued westward. The surface trough is an area to watch for development first, and it has better chances of reformation overall. Still can't discount the wave axis however.


So if both remnants of Chantal were to develop would there be two Chantals at the same time? Ops plan does not cover that. J/K about two at the same time.
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Quoting 420. wunderkidcayman:


If you loop the vort map it is clearly show there


I did... that is when I noticed and posted back some time ago.
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
Quoting 413. Patrap:
Some 3 inch per Hour Rain rates are being seen near Slidell, winds are also a threat as the Squall line moves thru.

New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile � Elevation
Range 124 NMI



Hey Pat I only got 1.64 inches of rain today when they went through about 2 hrs ago...
But some got more just depends on what location you were at :o)

Taco :o)
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Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
LAC103-112145-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.W.0030.130711T1844Z-130711T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
144 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SLIDELL...EDEN ISLE...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 140 PM CDT...FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED FROM A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PEARL RIVER

NEAR 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3039 8967 3016 8964 3023 8987 3025 8989
3024 8990 3025 8993 3040 8989
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
The convection in the Bahamas is moving WSW toward to NW Caribbean blob
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img src="">
Storm is re forming soon in the bahamas this will cause flooding in se coast new video now.
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Quoting 411. Walshy:
Europeans announce upgrade to weather forecast models after U.S. announces upgrade to catch up with them.



ECMWF (European Model) will be upgrading their supercomputers by 2014: http://goo.gl/GuhM7


So, we now need to upgrade to catch up to their upgrade again? Sort of like the space-race & arms-race with the Russians, except with weather-casting?
8-)
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Quoting 425. stormpetrol:


Some nasty weather headed our way


are you all hunkered down "kid" :)
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New discussion out of NWS Miami is suggesting that if Chantal does regenerate it might affect the area. Updates would be needed if something like that would happen. Other wise a wet pattern for the eastern Florida peninsula,
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting 405. wxgeek723:


But what happened to circulation of Chantal? Wasn't that the convection associated with the remnants of the storm?


Basically the storm has begun to split in two. You have the (as Levi puts it) "guts" of the storm moving north currently in the Bahamas. That would be where the original circulation has gone. Right now it is not at the surface anymore. The large blob of convection south of Cuba is the other half of Chantal, and I believe Levi said that could potentially develop if it moves west into the GOM. Got it?
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Some nasty weather headed our way
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Poll time!!!
What do you think the remnants of Chantal will be at for the 8pm TWO?
A: 0%
B: 10%
C: 20%
D: 30%
E: 40%
F: 50%
G: 60%
H: 70%
I: 80%
J: 90%
K: 100%
L: TD\TS Chantal
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Quoting 410. 69Viking:


My question is are there two AOI's at work here? One South of Cuba and one in the Bahamas? If shear relaxes like some are suggesting it could get interesting, there's definitely a lot of energy there that doesn't seem to want to die off!


Levi would know best I assume on that, but I'll offer the Genesis of the 2 were Chantal, with most of her energy now in the Bahamas, and the Remnant left behind is the Cuba/Jamaica one.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Ex-Chantal split into two last night. A majority of its remnants went north as a surface trough that is currently in the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the sharp wave axis has continued westward. The surface trough is an area to watch for development first, and it has better chances of reformation overall. Still can't discount the wave axis however.
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Quoting 413. Patrap:
Some 3 inch per Hour rates are being seen near Slidell, winds are also a threat as the Squall line moves thru.

New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI



I think we're going to get that here in NW FL tomorrow. Today we had a 60% chance of rain to start the day that turned into 100% chance when it started raining. Tomorrow's forecast show's an 80% chance of rain. Crazy July weather we're having.
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Quoting 414. SomeRandomTexan:



This is what I see as well with the vorticity


If you loop the vort map it is clearly show there
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Quoting 381. 10Speed:
I really never like it when I get an unexplainable feeling that something quite bad is about to happen.


Sorry if you are irreligious, but I think that feeling means it is the time to pray, as "warnings" are meant for people to act on or react to. So, maybe it is God's way of making some realize a need to pray for His intervention.
-- If you don't believe in God, no offense intended, and maybe your mind is simply picking up on something that your intellect has not pieced together, weather-wise. This is possibly more likely with some who have more years of experience on how storms just tend to "happen", irregardless of all the experts.
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The "other half looks good right now with TS winds and two swirls competing for LLC. The last couple of days have had morning/afternoon strong convection South and Evening strong convection shifting to the Northern remainders of Chantal. Any reason this won't happen again later today?
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Quoting 415. wxgeek723:


That only supported my inquiry...

?
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So is the entire post-Chantal area slated 30% for development encompassing south of Cuba through the Bahamas- or just the northern piece heading north?
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Quoting 408. 62901IL:

Link


That only supported my inquiry...
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Quoting 362. wunderkidcayman:
What appears to be happening is NW Caribbean is developing that which is in Bahamas is being sucked in or pulled in to the Carib blob and the rest from the E half of the Bhamas and N Bahamas is being dragged NE ward from out flow it does appear that a mid level spin is just E of Bahamas but is being shot away E bound which makes sense because mid level shear does kick out anything in Bahamas upper level shear has increase in the Bahamas and decreased in the NW Caribbean it is also being noted that 850 vort is now being sucked in to the Caribbean blob before it was in the Bahamas off shore of Cuba now is on Cuba moving or being sucked W bound



This is what I see as well with the vorticity
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
Some 3 inch per Hour Rain rates are being seen near Slidell, winds are also a threat as the Squall line moves thru.

New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
412. MTWX
Radar Estimated Rainfall totals so far today.

Link

Not counting the massive deluge we got around 5:30- 6:00 this morning which dropped almost 3" in my gauge!

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Europeans announce upgrade to weather forecast models after U.S. announces upgrade to catch up with them.



ECMWF (European Model) will be upgrading their supercomputers by 2014: http://goo.gl/GuhM7
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Quoting 398. Patrap:
Somebody get a pot o coffee brewing, we're gonna be noodling dis one out awhile.





My question is are there two AOI's at work here? One South of Cuba and one in the Bahamas? If shear relaxes like some are suggesting it could get interesting, there's definitely a lot of energy there that doesn't seem to want to die off!
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Oh, got 1.05" from storms yesterday, apparently there was flooding in East Nashville and Lebanon, sucks for them. Plenty of storm damage reports too, kinda surprising though, the people that got flooded got less than 1/2 of what I got.

Storm Reports
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Quoting 405. wxgeek723:


But what happened to circulation of Chantal? Wasn't that the convection associated with the remnants of the storm?

Link
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Quoting 403. Levi32:


The main "guts" of Chantal did go north. This is the "other half" of Chantal.
I think Chantal w be a weak tropical storm again of 40 mph .
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Quoting 403. Levi32:


The main "guts" of Chantal did go north. This is the "other half" of Chantal.


oh ok....I see.
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Quoting 404. Astrometeor:


It's a wave with a mid-level spin in the Bahamas.


But what happened to circulation of Chantal? Wasn't that the convection associated with the remnants of the storm?
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Quoting 399. wxgeek723:
I'm confused. Is this not Chantal anymore?


It's a wave with a mid-level spin in the Bahamas.
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Quoting 395. TexasHurricane05:


I though it was suppose to go north...


The main "guts" of Chantal did go north. This is the "other half" of Chantal.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.