Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

Share this Blog
57
+

The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1803 - 1753

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Quoting 1786. stoormfury:
WOW very trnquill tropics. activity is retricted to the usual flow of tropical waves. none of the reliable models are showing development the next 10 days. now is the time to continue to make preparations for the august/September explosion of anticipated activity. This could be the calm before the storms
yep its normal around this time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1802. flcanes
Quoting 1799. bigwes6844:
yep its normal around this time

August is when the big boys (and girls) should come out for "play".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1801. flcanes
Quoting 1796. Tropicsweatherpr:


I think July will not have any more developments and we will have to wait for early to mid August when the real season begins.

Hmm. I agree. This may just end up like 2010, just with possibly more storms, stonger storms, and more landfalling hurricanes, especially in the US
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1800. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning everybody
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1798. msphar
your prediction is good as I'll be on the boat in Salinas Bay starting next Tuesday. Calm water would be nice
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1794. islander101010:
thought for sure a low was going to be spit out last night. hard to get one in july


I think July will not have any more developments and we will have to wait for early to mid August when the real season begins.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1795. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thought for sure a low was going to be spit out last night. hard to get one in july
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1793. msphar
I've had problems with the sat image for the last couple of days. I've seen others complain about the same thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1778. LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!
Morning Largo... just getting on the move here. Looking at the satellite I may need to make it snappy, since it looks likely to storm later today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all. So far...

Nothing.

Rain? No.
Wind? Nah.

Overcast skies? Well, ok, but it's been like that most of this week [unusual for July, mind you].



If SLU thought Chantal was a non-event in St Lucia, imagine what he'd think here.... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1790. msphar
I see the ghost of the harbinger of doom is laying off the Florida coasts, sneaking North through the Bahamas. Is today the day that we await ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone else's sat from nhc messed up timing wise?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW very trnquill tropics. activity is retricted to the usual flow of tropical waves. none of the reliable models are showing development the next 10 days. now is the time to continue to make preparations for the august/September explosion of anticipated activity. This could be the calm before the storms
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1784. CaneWatcher1:
Yah the low around 27N 55W should be watched. Its heading for warmer water and the high may condense its circulation some when it starts building in. Levi mentioned it on his video analysis last night. I think this is the system the cmc eventually develops in the gulf. The NAM for a few runs now has shown potential development of this low.


You mean this one?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yah the low around 27N 55W should be watched. Its heading for warmer water and the high may condense its circulation some when it starts building in. Levi mentioned it on his video analysis last night. I think this is the system the cmc eventually develops in the gulf. The NAM for a few runs now has shown potential development of this low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1781. MPI88:


A hurricane with a core pressure of 999mb on the upper Texas Coast? What is the surrounding far-field pressure?

Bonnie (1986) - 995mb - 140kmh winds
Cindy (1963) - 997mb - 120 kmh winds

It seems plausible given climatology.. And the rapid 3-day formation did happen before, albeit usually later in the season.

Hmmm....we will see what happeneds
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1782. barbamz
Good morning everyone. Interesting and worrying new article on Spiegel English (climate related in the second part):

Monsters of the Deep: Jellyfish Threaten the World's Seas
By Samiha Shafy, July 11, 2013 %u2013 06:12 PM
Jellyfish infestations along beaches worldwide are troubling tourists and scientists alike. It is a creature that thrives on over-fishing and pollution. But how dangerous is it for the ecosystem?


Webcam of Mainz Cathedral, near to the place where I live. You see:

1. In Germany, we are still enjoying nice summer weather which should stay for a while, already rising concerns about drought and wildfires.

2. Something technical and spectacular is going on with the west tower, and they need the calm weather to do it. If you are interested to find out what it is, have a look at my new blog.

Have a nice Friday, I still have to do some work, so I have to leave for now ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1781. MPI88
Quoting 1751. Stormchaser121:
And btw sar2401 thats a 999 mb hurricane.


A hurricane with a core pressure of 999mb on the upper Texas Coast? What is the surrounding far-field pressure?

Bonnie (1986) - 995mb - 140kmh winds
Cindy (1963) - 997mb - 120 kmh winds

It seems plausible given climatology.. And the rapid 3-day formation did happen before, albeit usually later in the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1779. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
514 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-122330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
514 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN MOVING
TOWARD INLAND LOCATIONS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE
THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL RESIDE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL MOVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AS THE STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF LIGHTNING
IS OBSERVED OR THUNDER IS HEARD MOVE INDOOR IMMEDIATELY.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER
AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK. THE MYAKKA RIVER REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE A FURTHER
RISE IN WATER LEVELS AND MORE PRONOUNCED FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
ELEVATED ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER TODAY AND SELF
ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.


$$

MCMICHAEL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1778. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1774. KoritheMan:
I really don't think we're going to see any significant ramp up in activity until the end of the month, or more likely the first week of August based on the MJO. The CMC notwithstanding.

What is the CMC doing?? Levi DID mention that low...headed to the gulf...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1774. KoritheMan:
I really don't think we're going to see any significant ramp up in activity until the end of the month, or more likely the first week of August based on the MJO. The CMC notwithstanding.
He's not saying we won't, but it's more likely towards the end/beginning of August...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I really don't think we're going to see any significant ramp up in activity until the end of the month, or more likely the first week of August based on the MJO. The CMC notwithstanding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Goodnight,,,,lets see where we are in the morning...Hold down the fort!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1770. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone have one of these?

Somebody stole the moon!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still a spin just north of Cuba drifting WNW

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone have one of these?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1768. Hurricanes101:


You act like the CMC is forecasting a 949mb hurricane

Yea because a storm cant drop 14mbs with 3 days over the Gulf of Mexico, that has never happened lol

Humberto did...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1753. sar2401:

Wow! Forms from 1013 mb low off the north coast of Cuba and, in a little more tha three days, it has depened to a 999 mb hurricane in TX/AL somewhere. Why wopuldn't the 1014 lor that's sitting in almost the same spot as the rocket-like 990 mb low is supposed to be just deepen and become a hurricane instead of wasting all that energy. :-)

The CMC is clearly nuts again.



You act like the CMC is forecasting a 949mb hurricane

Yea because a storm cant drop 14mbs with 3 days over the Gulf of Mexico, that has never happened lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1766. HurricaneHunterJoe:

This hurricane headed to TX forms in the Atlantic where a low is that Levi mentioned. CMC MIGHHHHT be right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Someone needs to get their crystal ball working.....this is getting unreal with all these ghost model storms
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On the no go on methadone it was because my QRT was too long like between 400-600 if that makes sense
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lortabs are "happy pills" I take 60mgER X2 AND 30IR for breakthrough. Tried the patch, it worked ok for 2 days, was supposed to wear for 3 days and it fell off all the time. VA docs wanted to put me on methdone,but cant due to cardio issues......I have been through the gamut on pain...numerous epidural,steroid injections, and all the narcotics......but it's better than nothing and helps with the just plain insufferable pain... gives some semblance of a life
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1760. sar2401:

Oh, that one. No, I'm still waiting for that Big Boy to hit. My neighbor may things I'm bit nuts, but they won't be laughing once the foot is on the other shoe. :-)

I'm beginning to question if the CMC is onto something though...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1760. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:

noooo im talking about the one the CMC just showed. Thats a 999 mb. and Yes it is nuts thats 3 times it said a storm would hit TX. Welll....where are ya hurricane????

Oh, that one. No, I'm still waiting for that Big Boy to hit. My neighbor may things I'm bit nuts, but they won't be laughing once the foot is on the other shoe. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1759. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hell, Lortab? I'm up to 60mg Extended Release Morphine and 30mg I.R for breakthrough...Lortab was many years ago...lol

Wowsers! I just put on 30 mg ER morphine and 10 mg hydrocodone for breakthough pain. Living like this really sucks, but I guess it beats the alternatives. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1756. sar2401:

No, no, it was supposed to be a 993mb hurricane. I've been standing outside every morning since July 4 with my plywood and my electric drill, just waiting. The neighbors are starting to laugh. :-)


Just tell them you are a prepared individual
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1756. sar2401:

No, no, it was supposed to be a 993mb hurricane. I've been standing outside every morning since July 4 with my plywood and my electric drill, just waiting. The neighbors are starting to laugh. :-)

noooo im talking about the one the CMC just showed. Thats a 999 mb. and Yes it is nuts thats 3 times it said a storm would hit TX. Welll....where are ya hurricane????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1756. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:
And btw sar2401 thats a 999 mb hurricane.

No, no, it was supposed to be a 993mb hurricane. I've been standing outside every morning since July 4 with my plywood and my electric drill, just waiting. The neighbors are starting to laugh. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whats the latest on Ex Wannabe Chantal? To the Carolinas or as a wave across S Florida...or ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We got storms popping up everywhere the next 2 weeks?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1753. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:


Forms from that 1013 mb low by FL.

Wow! Forms from 1013 mb low off the north coast of Cuba and, in a little more tha three days, it has depened to a 999 mb hurricane in TX/AL somewhere. Why wopuldn't the 1014 lor that's sitting in almost the same spot as the rocket-like 990 mb low is supposed to be just deepen and become a hurricane instead of wasting all that energy. :-)

The CMC is clearly nuts again.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1803 - 1753

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
65 °F
Overcast