Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 486. 62901IL:

Can you get me a picture of the sky?


I-10 West of NOLA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
502. MTWX
Can anyone else see this?? It should be that new wave coming off Africa...

Link

For some reason the image files are blocked on my work computer...
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Quoting 487. Hurrihistory:
Any body notice the very well defined (spin) circulation WSW of the Cape Verde Islands at 14-North and 29-West? This looks like our next system!
Doesn't look as impressive as pre-Chantal. Also, lot of unfavorable conditions against the storm as well.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Afternoon All.

Models being ran again I see. I personally think this will become one area again eventually.


Afternoon PP!
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Quoting Hurrihistory:
Any body notice the very well defined (spin) circulation WSW of the Cape Verde Islands at 14-North and 29-West? This looks like our next system!

Yeah, a couple of us have been watching that today.
SAL is diminishing, Upper-Level moisture is increasing, showing some good rotation.

Still plenty of dry air west of that, though.
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Quoting 485. hurricanes2018:



DO YOU MEAN THIS TROPICAL WAVE

YES THAT TROPICAL WAVE
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Looks to me like there is quite a lot of spin in the southern half of Chantal, judging by the last few frames of the Floater Rainbow loop. I would not be surprised to see that develop and head west, thread the channel between Cuba and Yucatan, head NNW, and smack Patrap on the back!

Bob
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The wave off the Cape Verde islands is what the GFS was developing originally.Dont know by it has dropped it.Environment is nice and it has a nice spin.
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I read that stories that hurricane Camille formed from a tropical wave that move fast too,just saying.
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Quoting 450. CybrTeddy:


Good, competition for higher quality forecast models will vastly improve our ability to not only detect tropical cyclogensis but our ability to track them at a longer range.

There's always a possibility that congress will cut funding and outsource modeling like we did manned spaceflight to Russia...argh...forget I said that.
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Quoting 489. ProgressivePulse:
Afternoon All.

Models being ran again I see. I personally think this will become one area again eventually.



I like that black dashed line for the model predicting it to head for Alaska. lol.
-- Maybe it'll be SUPERSTORM CHANTAL! Ahhhh!!!!
A Cat 1, SBD super-storm!
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:
Maybe we could call them Mr & Mrs Chantal.
Mr Chantal would be the more aggressive one, so I say the one So. of Cuba would be Mr. Chantal, as it does seem to have some spunk.
---Hmm, on second thought....

Yer on thin ice there....

heheheheh
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Maybe we could call them Mr & Mrs Chantal.
Mr Chantal would be the more aggressive one, so I say the one So. of Cuba would be Mr. Chantal, as it does seem to have some spunk.
---Hmm, on second thought....
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Any current model runs showing anything with the "2" Chantal's?
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Afternoon All.

Models being ran again I see. I personally think this will become one area again eventually.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting indianrivguy:


a clear one with lil' fishys on it?

That does seem to be the Authorised, Approved version, yes.

Hotter than usual here (94F) with sahara dust and visibility at 6 miles.
No rain in the near future.
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Any body notice the very well defined (spin) circulation WSW of the Cape Verde Islands at 14-North and 29-West? This looks like our next system!
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Quoting 484. Patrap:
Getting very dark here


Can you get me a picture of the sky?
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Quoting 478. AztecCe:
That wave off of Cape Verde looks really great. When will the NHC start marking it with a yellow/orange circle?



DO YOU MEAN THIS TROPICAL WAVE
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Getting very dark here

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
bit of turning going on just where nhc is watching. vis.loop
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Quoting 398. Patrap:
Somebody get a pot o coffee brewing, we're gonna be noodling dis one out awhile.



Greetings Pat..Quite a few on here saw this coming a couple days ago( Including myself ). Degeneration into an open wave, a general westward movement, and then the possibility of regeneration in the Western Caribbean or gulf. My bet is the southern half wins it this time around, shear lets up, and we have something....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22703
Quoting 35. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Some mid level monsoon moisture flowing into Soo Cal
I woke up to rain this morning, it was awesome. Haven't woken up to tropical rainfall in at least a year.

Hope you guys got some up in the mountains.
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Quoting 474. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Teddy. You think we may get two different developments from the two pieces?


Only one and thats in the Bahamas. The other part of the wave is moving fast toward the Yucatan and development of that feature is not expected.
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Quoting 464. WalkingInTheSun:


40 + 40 = 80
You mean an 80% chance that we get a new storm?


No, wrong math. You have to take the percentage for the group as one. Remember, his numbers mean that there is a 60% chance of neither disturbance developing. Not 20% as your little calculation would figure.
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That wave off of Cape Verde looks really great. When will the NHC start marking it with a yellow/orange circle?
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Quoting pottery:

Sounds pretty grim.
You will need to resort to a shower-curtain then.


"You will need to resort to a shower-curtain then."
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Quoting 468. pottery:

Sounds pretty grim.
You will need to resort to a shower-curtain then.


a clear one with lil' fishys on it?
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Quoting 456. CybrTeddy:
An interesting situation, to say the least. I give it a 40% chance of either of these areas of disturbed weather ever developing.


The only area of interest is just SSE of Andros Island. Area near Jamaica is just some general thunderstorms being pushed outwards by outflow boundries. Area in the Bahamas looks very interesting.

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Quoting 456. CybrTeddy:
An interesting situation, to say the least. I give it a 40% chance of either of these areas of disturbed weather ever developing.


Hi Teddy. You think we may get two different developments from the two pieces?
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Quoting 456. CybrTeddy:
An interesting situation, to say the least. I give it a 40% chance of either of these areas of disturbed weather ever developing.
And they are getting very close to us here in South Florida,let's hope that we don't have a last minute surprise!!,specially after looking at the latest GFS run.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
472. beell
Upper level winds are still a bit on the strong side S of 20N in association with the TUTT westerlies. Probably 30 knots of shear between the Cayman's and Jamaica.

Some arc clouds noted this afternoon as the t-storms struggle a bit

Much better upper environment of the N coast of Cuba for now.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16924
Quoting 467. TropicalAnalystwx13:
(I took away land)

Latest imagery:


Cool! How did you do that?
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Chatal as unpredictable as she was, did have patterns. d-min, blow up convection and look good, d-max, mysteriously lose convection and look bad. She did this for a lot of her life as a TS. Now it's daytime/afternoon convection South, evening convection North. I think she'll continue that trend for a third day now. She may have split, but I think Chantal is looking to be one again and convection will shift Northward to MLL and "likely" center North of Cuba, where post 452 stated. If this happens it could be the trigger for MLL to work it's way to surface and Chantal might be coming back to drive everyone nuts again for a little while longer.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The only hill we have locally is called Mount Trashmore, that is what it consists of.

Sounds pretty grim.
You will need to resort to a shower-curtain then.
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(I took away land)

Latest imagery:

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Quoting 463. nrtiwlnvragn:


The only hill we have locally is called Mount Trashmore, that is what it consists of.


Sounds like the dump out at Key West, Fl.
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Quoting 394. Levi32:
It is worth noting that the GFS and CMC have likely been initializing their low-level wind fields near Cuba incorrectly. The vorticity lobe just off the north coast of eastern Cuba dominates the wind field, and the northern lobe of the tropical wave south of Cuba is not resolved well at all. Also, neither the GFS nor the CMC predicted the convective flareup currently being observed east of the Caymans. This means the models could potentially be underestimating the strength of the wave. Time will tell.



Levi if I might ask,what we can expect here in Miami?? from this systme,our local Met's are saying that all the moisture will move from East to West,and it will be a very stormy weekend for us here starting tomorrow until Sunday afternoon,what are you thoughts?,thanks!!.
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Quoting 456. CybrTeddy:
An interesting situation, to say the least. I give it a 40% chance of either of these areas of disturbed weather ever developing.


40 + 40 = 80
You mean an 80% chance that we get a new storm?
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Quoting 448. pottery:

It's what Blobs do...
They split and multiply, spawning multitudes of nasty little Blobbettes that split and multiply over and over and over.

Head for the hills......


The only hill we have locally is called Mount Trashmore, that is what it consists of.
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
wow!!

Visible circulation is at about 15N.
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Storm rolling through the New Orleans area

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Good, competition for higher quality forecast models will vastly improve our ability to not only detect tropical cyclogensis but our ability to track them at longer range.

Hey Teddy!
Maybe we'll have better intensity forecast as well.
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Quoting 458. WalkingInTheSun:


I guess we'd know then what to do.
It's sort of like "Thing1" & "Thing2".
Chantal-1 and Chantal-2 would be right for the time,
like a Cat-in-the-hat that talks in rhyme.
-- and they could do more damage, too. hahaha.

LOL!
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Quoting 436. nrtiwlnvragn:


So if both remnants of Chantal were to develop would there be two Chantals at the same time? Ops plan does not cover that. J/K about two at the same time.


I guess we'd know then what to do.
It's sort of like "Thing1" & "Thing2".
Chantal-1 and Chantal-2 would be right for the time,
like with that Cat-in-the-hat that talked in rhyme.
-- and they could do more damage, too. haha.
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An interesting situation, to say the least. I give it a 40% chance of either of these areas of disturbed weather ever developing.
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If Chantal does redevelop she will bring winds and rain from Key West to Cape Hatteras on the East Coast, and the majority of the Bahamas.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
Quoting 451. hurricanes2018:
wow!!

Looks nice right now better than i thought.
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It looks like were getting storms in the gulf coast. stay safe.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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