Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 547. Hurricane1956:
I believe you are completely!! out of line!! with your comments,I has been checking your posts the last few days!!,Grothar is a very well respected member of this blog!!!,to gave him such a improper!! answer!!.



I don't think Camille meant it that way. It is a joke that Taz and I have been doing for years. There used to be a blogger who always wrote, "I saw it first". I think he just wanted to join in. But thank you very much for such a kind remark. It is very much appreciated. Although some on here think I am very threatening.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
By de way,
dat leetle swirly-doodle in de Florida straits, mon?
Dat gal - she might steel go home wit de prize.
She gone startin' to whip up some tings from all around -erself off in dere, you know?

(Practicin' my fake Jamaican accent, dat's all)
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Any advise for this Key West residue?
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Quoting 547. Hurricane1956:
I believe you are completely!! out of line!! with your comments,I has been checking your posts the last few days!!,Grothar is a very well respected member of this blog!!!,to gave him such a improper!! answer!!.

Calm down, buddy.
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548. beell
Quoting 509. wunderkidcayman:

It's actually it's les than 20kts about 15kts and its decreasing while in Bahamas it's 20kts going 30kts and increasing



Sat loops may imply something different. Your results may vary.
:)


12Z GFS 200-850mb vertical shear @ hrs (meters per second))

And for giggles, zonal shear (west/est)-which is a bit more destructive to an embryonic disturbance moving west.



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Quoting 537. Camille33:

You saw nothing first.
I believe you are completely!! out of line!! with your comments,I has been checking your posts the last few days!!,Grothar is a very well respected member of this blog!!!,to gave him such a improper!! answer!!.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
545. FOREX
Quoting 534. FIUStormChaser:


Appears to be a circulation south and north of Cuba, most of the people on here right now think the north one will become the dominant one as it has the best conditions, I think both could form.

None the less, expect heavy wind and rain up and down the US Eastren Seaboard and if you live in Texas or Mexico, I'd watch the south portion.


Does the Florida panhandle get any of the remnants according to models?
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Quoting 541. ncstorm:

Farmers Almanac

July 2013
8th-11th. Showery rain for Gulf Coast and much of Southeast, followed by clearing.
12th-15th. Hot and humid.
16th-19th. Scattered showers, thunderstorms.
20th-23rd. Hot for Mississippi Valley and points east; with more scattered thunderstorms.
24th-27th. Some scattered thunderstorms, followed by clearing skies.
28th-31st. Sultry, with a renewed risk of some thunderstorms.

August 2013
1st-3rd. Sultry, hot; high humidity makes it feel like it's 110 to 115 degrees.
4th-7th. Continued hot, then afternoon showers pop up.
8th-11th. Hazy sunshine and humid.
12th-15th. Threat of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico.
16th-19th. Fair skies.
20th-23rd. Thunderstorms an ongoing threat.
24th-27th. Widespread thunderstorm activity continues.
28th-31st. Fair and pleasant for Mississippi Valley and points east; a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic should stay well offshore.

September 2013
1st-3rd. Scattered showers may dampen holiday plans, then fair.
4th-7th. Hurricane threat along the Atlantic seaboard; otherwise generally fair, very warm and humid.

Oh my god! Hope this doesn't happen.
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'Ay mon, I tink Jamaica has ben spared a big hurt'n.
Not so sure 'bout de Caymans, do.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129908

Farmers Almanac

July 2013
8th-11th. Showery rain for Gulf Coast and much of Southeast, followed by clearing.
12th-15th. Hot and humid.
16th-19th. Scattered showers, thunderstorms.
20th-23rd. Hot for Mississippi Valley and points east; with more scattered thunderstorms.
24th-27th. Some scattered thunderstorms, followed by clearing skies.
28th-31st. Sultry, with a renewed risk of some thunderstorms.

August 2013
1st-3rd. Sultry, hot; high humidity makes it feel like it's 110 to 115 degrees.
4th-7th. Continued hot, then afternoon showers pop up.
8th-11th. Hazy sunshine and humid.
12th-15th. Threat of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico.
16th-19th. Fair skies.
20th-23rd. Thunderstorms an ongoing threat.
24th-27th. Widespread thunderstorm activity continues.
28th-31st. Fair and pleasant for Mississippi Valley and points east; a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic should stay well offshore.

September 2013
1st-3rd. Scattered showers may dampen holiday plans, then fair.
4th-7th. Hurricane threat along the Atlantic seaboard; otherwise generally fair, very warm and humid.
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Good afternoon eveyone hope everyone is having an amazing day.I see Chantal form from a wave and then became a wave and that wave separate into two parts.I believe she will redevelop.
Quoting 507. Envoirment:


It'll come in contact with a bunch of dry air/dry air pockets as it comes closer to South America/the Lesser Antilles.



That's the only reason I can see its development being hindered.
That wave has the name Dorian all over it.I believe the NHC will mention it at the 8pm two.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

We've been having intermittent showers all day in Jamaica...I've not seen the sun for today.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Quoting 536. Grothar:
Just as I wrote earlier. Where's Taz, I saw it first?



You saw nothing first.
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Just as I wrote earlier. Where's Taz, I saw it first?


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
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Quoting 528. Patrap:


Appears to be a circulation south and north of Cuba, most of the people on here right now think the north one will become the dominant one as it has the best conditions, I think both could form.

None the less, expect heavy wind and rain up and down the US Eastren Seaboard and if you live in Texas or Mexico, I'd watch the south portion.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
I AM starting to see blue again!!
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531. MTWX
Quoting 515. PedleyCA:


Pretended to do something. Very jerky. Didn't load anything but the shell.


This one works pretty good. (just have to slow it down a bit to really get a good look at the waves)

Link
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Quoting 521. CaicosRetiredSailor:
I believe it is time to run the WTF model on the Ex-Chantals....


WTF...????
World Trade Center?
What-The-XXXX?
-- Watch your language on hear. hah.
Odd name for a model. Not very pretty even.
-- and "Ex-Chantals" could give her or them a complex, like she got jilted.
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The heck is going on I thought we were done with this saga


000
ABNT20 KNHC 111731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA






Keep in mind models are totally unreliable right now because there is no real organized feature here, just a big trough.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129908
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


LOL! I hate that it does that because it screws up the scale of the map.



Howdy Nigel! I knew not to take my eyes off the tenacious Chantal. If she finds a sweet spot she'll develop again, no doubt in my mind.

Agreed.
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Quoting 510. ecflweatherfan:
Looking at the RGB loop, does anyone see the small tight spin at 22N 76W? At least that is what it looks like to me. I was squinting my eyes and slowed the loop down too, and still looks to be that way. Just south of a blob of convection over the SE Bahamas.


I saw it, too, but as the so. part of old Chantal increases, it may rip that into nothingness if moisture there streams back to the So. of Cuba.
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Definitely!!! a spin South East of South Florida,East and South of Andros Island (over centra Cuba) you can clearly see it in the Satellite loop,maybe this is the main LLC?.
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Quoting 521. CaicosRetiredSailor:
I believe it is time to run the WTF model on the Ex-Chantals....


have a link for that ya ol' Pirate? :)
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Quoting 521. CaicosRetiredSailor:
I believe it is time to run the WTF model on the Ex-Chantals....


That model has been running the past week.. :)
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I believe it is time to run the WTF model on the Ex-Chantals....
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Quoting 501. Bluestorm5:
Doesn't look as impressive as pre-Chantal. Also, lot of unfavorable conditions against the storm as well.
Shear is lessening and it has a moist environment.Shear is also lessening in the Caribbean and the trades are slowing down.It won't have the previous problems Chantal had.Eapecially with trade winds.
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Quoting 502. MTWX:
Can anyone else see this?? It should be that new wave coming off Africa...

Link

For some reason the image files are blocked on my work computer...


Is it true that if you ride that wave...you'll be sittin' on top of the world? (music playing)
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Quoting 503. Patrap:


I-10 West of NOLA


When this passed through Gulfport, it looked like the middle of the night.
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Quoting 513. stormpetrol:


Should sooon have circle.

Agreed
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Lots of moisture off the east coast of Florida
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Quoting 502. MTWX:
Can anyone else see this?? It should be that new wave coming off Africa...

Link

For some reason the image files are blocked on my work computer...


Pretended to do something. Very jerky. Didn't load anything but the shell.
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Quoting 493. WalkingInTheSun:


I like that black dashed line for the model predicting it to head for Alaska. lol.
-- Maybe it'll be SUPERSTORM CHANTAL! Ahhhh!!!!
A Cat 1, SBD super-storm!


LOL! I hate that it does that because it screws up the scale of the map.

Quoting 500. nigel20:

Afternoon PP!


Howdy Nigel! I knew not to take my eyes off the tenacious Chantal. If she finds a sweet spot she'll develop again, no doubt in my mind.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458


Should sooon have circle.
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Quoting 482. hydrus:
Greetings Pat..Quite a few on here saw this coming a couple days ago( Including myself ). Degeneration into an open wave, a general westward movement, and then the possibility of regeneration in the Western Caribbean or gulf. My bet is the southern half wins it this time around, shear lets up, and we have something....
Hydrus do you think that this system will move North as the GFS shows,our local Met's here in Miami,are talking about a very stormy!!! weekend for us as we receive the remanants of Chantal,what are your though,we have a beach party on Saturday that we might have to cancel due to the weather.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Looking at the RGB loop, does anyone see the small tight spin at 22N 76W? At least that is what it looks like to me. I was squinting my eyes and slowed the loop down too, and still looks to be that way. Just south of a blob of convection over the SE Bahamas.
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Quoting 472. beell:
Upper level winds are still a bit on the strong side S of 20N in association with the TUTT westerlies. Probably 30 knots of shear between the Cayman's and Jamaica.

Some arc clouds noted this afternoon as the t-storms struggle a bit

Much better upper environment of the N coast of Cuba for now.

It's actually it's les than 20kts about 15kts and its decreasing while in Bahamas it's 20kts going 30kts and increasing

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Quoting 504. Dakster:


The extrapolation line...


Of course it's extrapolar -- only aiming for Alaska, not the north pole. ;)
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Quoting 496. washingtonian115:
The wave off the Cape Verde islands is what the GFS was developing originally.Dont know by it has dropped it.Environment is nice and it has a nice spin.


It'll come in contact with a bunch of dry air/dry air pockets as it comes closer to South America/the Lesser Antilles.



That's the only reason I can see its development being hindered.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1026
Will Astro be cheated out of more rain or will this storm that has been sitting here for a while finally start to rain? Stay tuned to find out...

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That baaad ol' puddy-tat, Chantal, went dead, then go "Boom!" -- not so dead, again.
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Quoting 493. WalkingInTheSun:


I like that black dashed line for the model predicting it to head for Alaska. lol.


The extrapolation line...
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Quoting 486. 62901IL:

Can you get me a picture of the sky?


I-10 West of NOLA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129908

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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