Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 576. 62901IL:
Gro, you getting anything from ex-chantal?


Clouds are very dark to the west here at FIU (West Miami), haven't had a chance to look at the radar though.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
Quoting 579. Grothar:


I beg your pardon?



LMAO
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Quoting 562. yonzabam:


Threatening? Heck, you're the epitome of avuncular. (I just said that to challenge you're English skills. I read that it's your third language.)


Actually, even though I was born here, English really is my 3rd language. I am fortunate enough to be able to insult people in 6. Although I rarely do.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
600. beell
Quoting 552. WalkingInTheSun:
By de way,
dat leetle swirly-doodle in de Florida straits, mon?
Dat gal - she might steel go home wit de prize.
She gone startin' to whip up some tings from all around -erself off in dere, you know?

(Practicin' my fake Jamaican accent, dat's all)


I think that's the remains of the lil ULL in the FL Straits.



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Well, I got another soaker yet again today, rainfall since June 1st is approaching 30 inches around here, it's been quite the rainy season so far.
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VORT stacking up again, but this time at all levels:

850MB:


700MB:


500MB:


If trend continues and convective activity increases/organizes better by DMAX then I could see a 50% by tomorrow 8AM. For tonight, I would go as high as 40% by 8PM.
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Quoting 581. nigel20:

Hey WIS!
Lol...many Jamaicans would find it difficult to understand you...including myself. :)


So, they don't talk like on TV?
What happened to the accuracy of TV productions?! :)
Sorry if I offended.
Was my Scooby impersonation any better?
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Quoting 591. StormTrackerScott:
Who let the trolls out!

OOOO-OO-OO-OOO!
I did!
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Quoting 546. FIUStormChaser:


These model tracks don't really matter, its an open wave that will bring an area of deeper moisture across Florida and the southeast this weekend...
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Quoting 560. Hurricane1956:
Sorry I did not know,my sincere apologies to Camille33,I believe this blog is superb!!!,a lot of knowledge people!!,in my opinion there is not need for attacks,everybody is entitled to their opinion!.
Again my apologies to camille33,not hard feeling!!,and let's concentrate on the subject matter "the Tropics".


Now that is a gentleman. One doesn't see that often.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
Quoting 559. Astrometeor:


-_- Don't talk about that "s-word" around here, I am not looking forward to this fall, so much work is set out for me.

For the Nashville area, schools start back up August 1.


When does school get out in Nashville? Here school gets out early or mid June and we go back late late August (or early September, depending on where you live).
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Quoting 574. PortoJuan:
definitely a low to mid level spin east of Abaco Island. If this develops would it remain Chantal even though this was the mid level center and not the low level which is probably between Jamaica and Cuba


I was just looking at that a few minutes ago on the hi-res loops. Frankly, it's one big mess out there with the remnants and swirls everywhere with no dominant area that I can discern. That nice looking mid-level swirl North of San Salvador has now dissipated over the past few hours. Not much organization across the board at this point now matter where you look from Cuba all the way through the Bahamas......Just my opinion.
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Who let the trolls out!
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Quoting 552. WalkingInTheSun:
By de way,
dat leetle swirly-doodle in de Florida straits, mon?
Dat gal - she might steel go home wit de prize.
She gone startin' to whip up some tings from all around -erself off in dere, you know?

(Practicin' my fake Jamaican accent, dat's all)


Is it sad that I tried to read this with a Jamaican Accent?
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
Quoting 585. WalkingInTheSun:


Yikes,a ZOMBIE hurricane -- the worst kind!!


Well, it did 'die' over Haiti.
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Quoting 565. WeatherfanPR:


That is one powerful wave. That's the one the GFS was developing but then dropped. I suspect we will see a mention of this wave by the NHC soon as some of the hurricane models develope this Hwrf & GFDL models.
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Quoting 569. yonzabam:


Her spirit is currently being reincarnated into two different lives.



been too busy to check....in dc
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Quoting 581. nigel20:

Hey WIS!
Lol...many Jamaicans would find it difficult to understand you...including myself. :)


Good afternoon, Nigel.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
Quoting 572. Astrometeor:


Perhaps in that there are no longer any advisories, but she's still a threat...and in more than one way too.

Maybe a better word for Chantal is "undead".


Rikes,'Raggy, a ROMBIE rorm -- ra rorst rind!!
Relp! -- Reelp!!
(Need that translated?)
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I see the NHC decided to bring out the orange crayons for the remnants of Chantal. I do think it will develop again before coming up the coast.

How is the southern half of Chantal doing?
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Quoting 571. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I do not understand it your, Grothar. You are always the nice one and you still manage to stir up problems and in the most innocent of ways. *shrugs shoulders*


I know. I don't mean to. But at least I am never threatening. How is the Rookman?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
Quoting 579. Grothar:


I beg your pardon?

I mean, are you getting any weather from Ex-Chantal?
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:
By de way,
dat leetle swirly-doodle in de Florida straits, mon?
Dat gal - she might steel go home wit de prize.
She gone startin' to whip up some tings from all around -erself off in dere, you know?

(Practicin' my fake Jamaican accent, dat's all)

Hey WIS!
Lol...many Jamaicans would find it difficult to understand you...including myself. :)
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563. WalkingInTheSun Thank you for the information. I am a resident but with the heat and humidity of late feeling more like a residue. A least not flotsam yet!! Thanks
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Quoting 576. 62901IL:
Gro, you getting anything from ex-chantal?


I beg your pardon?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
Quoting 557. TideWaterWeather:
IMO.. The T-wave convection to the south of Cuba is nothing more than a shear induced wave axis blow-up with little to no vorticity. It may develop down the road once it nears the (Yucatan/ Southern GOM)but, i think those chances are slim. Other than that, it is not much of a story.

The true potential tropical seed (or re-seed) resides north of Cuba and the Bahamas.



No offense, but I disagree, but have one exception to that -- the old Florida Straits low that almost completely dissipated, then seems to be coming back to life after drifting back E slightly, above Cuba. I think she might play out the winner -- the 3rd person in the love-triangle breakup of Chantal.
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Quoting 554. ncstorm:
anyone know when school lets back in?..not too soon if you ask me..


I agree. Arson investigations are on the rise.
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Gro, you getting anything from ex-chantal?
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Hurricane1956 I was just joking relax please.
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Quoting 545. FOREX:


Does the Florida panhandle get any of the remnants according to models?


Depends where ex-Chantel comes in, if she makes landfall in Florida yes, but if she remains offshore and goes to SC you are a little too far away.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
Quoting 564. GeorgiaStormz:
Hey guys.... see chantal is dead


Perhaps in that there are no longer any advisories, but she's still a threat...and in more than one way too.

Maybe a better word for Chantal is "undead".
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Quoting 553. Grothar:



I don't think Camille meant it that way. It is a joke that Taz and I have been doing for years. There used to be a blogger who always wrote, "I saw it first". I think he just wanted to join in. But thank you very much for such a kind remark. It is very much appreciated. Although some on here think I am very threatening.


I do not understand it your, Grothar. You are always the nice one and you still manage to stir up problems and in the most innocent of ways. *shrugs shoulders*
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Quoting 561. washingtonian115:
It's sad that people have nothing better else to do but troll a weather blog out of all blogs to troll.


Weather trolls, or storm trolls?
Sounds like something from Lord of the Rings.
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Quoting 564. GeorgiaStormz:
Hey guys.... see chantal is dead


Her spirit is currently being reincarnated into two different lives.
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Quoting 547. Hurricane1956:
I believe you are completely!! out of line!! with your comments,I has been checking your posts the last few days!!,Grothar is a very well respected member of this blog!!!,to gave him such a improper!! answer!!.


Might wanna check your pulse and your pants after all that emotion poured through your veins.
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Quoting 565. WeatherfanPR:

Maybe/
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The Florida Panhandle and Big Bend is already getting hammered by rain this afternoon......No more rain needed up here at the moment.
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Hey guys.... see chantal is dead
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Quoting 550. KeyWestbeachcomber:
Any advise for this Key West residue?


Residue...or resident?
I would say watch that swirly-thing off your S/SE side. It is rather faint but I think it is trying to siphon in moisture & has sped up its swirliness after almost stopping down to nothing, so she could be of interest in the future. If the remnants of Chantal So. of Cuba blow up strong, then she may remain harmless, however.
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Quoting 553. Grothar:



I don't think Camille meant it that way. It is a joke that Taz and I have been doing for years. There used to be a blogger who always wrote, "I saw it first". I think he just wanted to join in. But thank you very much for such a kind remark. It is very much appreciated. Although some on here think I am very threatening.


Threatening? Heck, you're the epitome of avuncular. (I just said that to challenge you're English skills. I read that it's your third language.)
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It's sad that people have nothing better else to do but troll a weather blog out of all blogs to troll.
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Quoting 553. Grothar:



I don't think Camille meant it that way. It is a joke that Taz and I have been doing for years. There used to be a blogger who always wrote, "I saw it first". I think he just wanted to join in. But thank you very much for such a kind remark. It is very much appreciated. Although some on here think I am very threatening.
Sorry I did not know,my sincere apologies to Camille33,I believe this blog is superb!!!,a lot of knowledge people!!,in my opinion there is not need for attacks,everybody is entitled to their opinion!.
Again my apologies to camille33,not hard feeling!!,and let's concentrate on the subject matter "the Tropics".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 554. ncstorm:
anyone know when school lets back in?..not too soon if you ask me..


-_- Don't talk about that "s-word" around here, I am not looking forward to this fall, so much work is set out for me.

For the Nashville area, schools start back up August 1.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 553. Grothar:



I don't think Camille meant it that way. It is a joke that Taz and I have been doing for years. There used to be a blogger who always wrote, "I saw it first". I think he just wanted to join in. But thank you very much for such a kind remark. It is very much appreciated. Although some on here think I am very threatening.


"Threatening" !!!!
Naaaaaaaa LOL

Taco :o)
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IMO.. The T-wave convection to the south of Cuba is nothing more than a shear induced wave axis blow-up with little to no vorticity. It may develop down the road once it nears the (Yucatan/ Southern GOM)but, i think those chances are slim. Other than that, it is not much of a story.

The true potential tropical seed (or re-seed) resides north of Cuba and the Bahamas.

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Quoting 547. Hurricane1956:
I believe you are completely!! out of line!! with your comments,I has been checking your posts the last few days!!,Grothar is a very well respected member of this blog!!!,to gave him such a improper!! answer!!.


Sheesh, calm down there. I would've more expected an answer like this to come from Taz, seeing as though Camille is trying to steal Taz's favorite line...
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Quoting 536. Grothar:
Just as I wrote earlier. Where's Taz, I saw it first?



Indeed you did see it first...and so did Taz :)
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anyone know when school lets back in?..not too soon if you ask me..
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Quoting 547. Hurricane1956:
I believe you are completely!! out of line!! with your comments,I has been checking your posts the last few days!!,Grothar is a very well respected member of this blog!!!,to gave him such a improper!! answer!!.



I don't think Camille meant it that way. It is a joke that Taz and I have been doing for years. There used to be a blogger who always wrote, "I saw it first". I think he just wanted to join in. But thank you very much for such a kind remark. It is very much appreciated. Although some on here think I am very threatening.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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