Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 650. zampaz:

Like the potential of "unthinkable sequestration?"
Oh...but that was a matter of reasonable compromise not the result of a corpse coming to life and eating your brains out...???


Sequestration! -- It caused Chantal to split?!
Dar-ned sequester!
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Quoting 626. nigel20:

No, they don't talk like that. I wasn't offend...most Jamaicans would just laugh at you, just as they did with the VW ad. :)


VW ad? -- I missed that one I guess.
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Ya ever fall down for no reason?
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Quoting 632. Grothar:


that is why I posted that video on my blog last night. They always write these things off, when they can threaten you at any time.

Like the potential of "unthinkable sequestration?"
Oh...but that was a matter of reasonable compromise not the result of a corpse coming to life and eating your brains out...???
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
Quoting 646. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maps from UW-CIMSS indicate that vorticity from 850-500mb has become stacked southeast of Grand Bahama.

850:



700:



500:



Grand Bahama is the most northern island of the Bahamas. You must mean Andros (aka, the largest island)? Hahaa
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im thinking recon may be needed tomorrow
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Quoting 583. Grothar:


I know. I don't mean to. But at least I am never threatening. How is the Rookman?


I am doing very well, Grothar. .... Unlike some of us, I have no created any incidents on here today. .... Well, OK. Maybe I just did. :)

How are you doing, my friend?
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Maps from UW-CIMSS indicate that vorticity from 850-500mb has become stacked southeast of Andros Island.

850:



700:



500:

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Quoting 580. KeyWestbeachcomber:
563. WalkingInTheSun Thank you for the information. I am a resident but with the heat and humidity of late feeling more like a residue. A least not flotsam yet!! Thanks


Take a look at the water-vapor loop for your area.
It REALLY is starting to look like the little low just north of Cuba is wanting to do something, IMO -- looks really spooky to me! I'd say start making plans & considering options...just in case it does. You don't want to get stuck flat-footed in Key West if something winds up slowly & simply hovers near there 'til it's too big to leave safely.

Sure, it is nothing at the moment, but just saying keep the possibilities in mind. Ignoring them has hurt lots of people in times past.
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Chantal got whooped
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Quoting 588. StormTrackerScott:


That is one powerful wave. That's the one the GFS was developing but then dropped. I suspect we will see a mention of this wave by the NHC soon as some of the hurricane models develope this Hwrf & GFDL models.
Where this CV wave is headed? NW out to sea or SW? I'm new here and confused wether it moves one direction or another.
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Quoting 616. forecaster1:
Getting soupy here in Palm Beach County. I have been hearing thunder outside for two hours clouds in the sky but no rain and nothing close to PBG FL on radar.
You must be out west.Wellington, Acreage, Royal Palm..
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Quoting 623. WalkingInTheSun:


No problem. I remember KW's highest point was a trash island on the next little isle, lol,...or go up into one of the high-rises. I recall people down there used to talk about how hurricanes don't go there -- that the reef protected them. Don't buy it. Long ago, a train got washed off the old railway lines down that way by a big storm. If anything looks bad, Key West is NOT the place to try to hunker down, IMHO.
You are referring to Mount Trashmore... at least we try not to throw it in the water. We have seen quite a few cat2 and some cat3 Wilma flooded the northern end and blew my roof off. I'm on high ground 7 feet above sea level. The high point Solaris Hill 17 feet above sea level.
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Quoting 621. StormJunkie:
Running models again huh. So do we officially have Invest Chantal now?




Hey SJ, Chantal is mind boggling isn't she, i wonder if rest of the season gonna be this weird.


sheri
Oh yeah great to see ya.
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Quoting 631. Patrap:


Looks like the upslope created from Chantal's remnants are forming storms over the mountains in Cuba.

I always find it intriguing how you have Cuba, which is pretty mountainous, only 90 miles from Florida, which has hardly any hills.
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Quoting 566. weathermanwannabe:
The Florida Panhandle and Big Bend is already getting hammered by rain this afternoon......No more rain needed up here at the moment.
Amen!
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Quoting 628. rmbjoe1954:
It's raining rather heavily between US1 and I95 in Saint Lucie County and we are under an area flood advisory. Lots of thunder.
I see that on the radar.


The swirl south of Miami is what I believe to be Chantal. starting to have pops of clouds in and out near the swirl I think I may use this chance to locate my shutters in the garage.
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636. beell
---------->
:)
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Quoting 630. indianrivguy:


I can see and hear it... keep your powder dry Joe...


I'll certainly try!
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Quoting 624. Patrap:

..I get knocked down, but I get up again,..




Hey Pat, she like blowing up. I know from reading these last few days she really don't have much of a chance with the shear and the high in the GOM. Or am I totally wrong.

sheri
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Quoting 625. StormTrackerScott:


Looks like Chantal wants to merge with the ULL.


What will happen if it does? Lol
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Quoting 624. Patrap:

..I get knocked down, but I get up again,..




that is why I posted that video on my blog last night. They always write these things off, when they can threaten you at any time.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26153
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128347
Quoting 628. rmbjoe1954:
It's raining rather heavily between US1 and I95 in Saint Lucie County and we are under an area flood advisory. Lots of thunder.


I can see and hear it... keep your powder dry Joe...
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Quoting 608. nigel20:

Good afternoon Grothar! We've been having rain and fog all day here in Jamaica...no sun. :(



Actually a beautiful day here, although very hot. We took a small walk along the beach. Most of the beach is gone in Fort Lauderdale though. Now it appears we be threatened by ex-Chantal or New Chantal.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26153
It's raining rather heavily between US1 and I95 in Saint Lucie County and we are under an area flood advisory. Lots of thunder.
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Once again, good size storm comes at me and then goes around me and reforms nicely again south of me. Really? Someone take the umbrella away!
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


So, they don't talk like on TV?
What happened to the accuracy of TV productions?! :)
Sorry if I offended.
Was my Scooby impersonation any better?

No, they don't talk like that. I wasn't offend...most Jamaicans would just laugh at you, just as they did with the VW ad. :)
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Quoting 618. Patrap:


Looks like Chantal wants to merge with the ULL.
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..I get knocked down, but I get up again,..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128347
Quoting 580. KeyWestbeachcomber:
563. WalkingInTheSun Thank you for the information. I am a resident but with the heat and humidity of late feeling more like a residue. A least not flotsam yet!! Thanks


No problem. I remember KW's highest point was a trash island on the next little isle, lol,...or go up into one of the high-rises. I recall people down there used to talk about how hurricanes don't go there -- that the reef protected them. Don't buy it. Long ago, a train got washed off the old railway lines down that way by a big storm. If anything looks bad, Key West is NOT the place to try to hunker down, IMHO.
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Quoting 595. Jedkins01:


These model tracks don't really matter, its an open wave that will bring an area of deeper moisture across Florida and the southeast this weekend...


It really is beginning to look threatening.




Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26153
Running models again huh. So do we officially have Invest Chantal now?

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Quoting 559. Astrometeor:


-_- Don't talk about that "s-word" around here, I am not looking forward to this fall, so much work is set out for me.

For the Nashville area, schools start back up August 1.
For once, I'm looking forward to school... because it's college. Better college than Walmart, lol. Plus, Asheville is a friendly town with many friendly folks. Can't wait to move in August 11th (I'm doing a program in which I camp out in Blue Ridge Mountains for a week). Official move in is August 16th and classes starts August 19th.
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Quoting 585. WalkingInTheSun:


Yikes,a ZOMBIE storm -- the worst kind!!

Just when you thought everything ended with the "2012 Mayan Calendar Nebarhoneybooboo Black Hole Apocalypse", and believed things couldn't get any worse because Congress survived; there came "2013- Year of the Zombie Storm Hurricane Apocalypse."
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Quoting 604. weatherlover94:
Guys , those of you that pray remember my family in your prayers .....I just got a call my grandfather is passing away at the hospital I'm going now ...talk to you guys soon


Sorry to hear that, prayers to you and your family.
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Getting soupy here in Palm Beach County. I have been hearing thunder outside for two hours clouds in the sky but no rain and nothing close to PBG FL on radar.
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Quoting 592. weathermanwannabe:


I was just looking at that a few minutes ago on the hi-res loops. Frankly, it's one big mess out there with the remnants and swirls everywhere with no dominant area that I can discern. That nice looking mid-level swirl North of San Salvador has now dissipated over the past few hours. Not much organization across the board at this point now matter where you look from Cuba all the way through the Bahamas......Just my opinion.


Indeed. The low-mid level circulation that blogger mentioned has weakened and is the one east of Abaco. I am more concerned in the area of 22N 76W, where a tight low level spin does exist. But it is still a huge mess...
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Exciting weather news from Southern California today, San Diego (KSAN) received 0.04 inches of rain this morning!

NWS San Diego Mesonet (click image to enlarge)




This puts us at 0.04 inches for the month of July which is the most rainfall we've recorded in the month of July since 2006. This is also our most significant monsoonal precipitation event in nearly two years.


Today's 12z Sounding



Favorable southeasterly flow around the four corners ridge has sent a nice shot of mid-level subtropical moisture out of Mexico and into our area. Additionally, remnants of TS Erick and an African easterly wave have enhanced moisture levels. The 12z sounding showed PWAT reached 1.83 inches today -- remarkable for us. Unfortunately, the majority of this moisture is confined to the 600-400mb layer which is completely saturated (i.e. clouds at this level). Furthermore, this cloud cover has limited daytime heating and the large amount of dry air in the low levels has created a very stable atmosphere (CAPE = 0, LI = 3.5). Also, since the cloud layer is up so high, and it is warm and dry in the low-levels, most of the rain that is falling is evaporating before it reaches the ground. Clearly not an ideal setup but, in case you haven't figured it out already, San Diego's weather is very dull so events like this are a big deal for us.
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Quoting 609. will40:
604. weatherlover94

sorry to hear. Prayers for you


Thanks so much will40.
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Quoting 585. WalkingInTheSun:


Rikes,'Raggy, a ROMBIE rorm -- ra rorst rind!!
Relp! -- Reelp!!
(Need that translated?)


Nope, I understand Scooby-do speak. Good one there. :)
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Quoting 607. WalkingInTheSun:


-- rahr,...rahr, rahr, rahr!

Who let the trools out?
OOOO-OO-OO-OOOO!!
Who let the trolls out?
OOOO-OO-OO-OOOO!!
Who let the trolls out?
OOOO-OO-OO-OOOO!!
Who let the trolls out?
OOOO-OO-OO-OOOO!!
Who let the trolls out?
OOOO-OO-OO-OOOO!!
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604. weatherlover94

sorry to hear. Prayers for you
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Quoting Grothar:


Good afternoon, Nigel.

Good afternoon Grothar! We've been having rain and fog all day here in Jamaica...no sun. :(
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Quoting 591. StormTrackerScott:
Who let the trolls out!


-- rahr,...rahr, rahr, rahr!
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Quoting 605. Astrometeor:


May 24 usually. We used to start back 3rd week of August, but lately they have been pushing for year-round school.

Are you in skool right now?
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Quoting 593. weatherbow:


When does school get out in Nashville? Here school gets out early or mid June and we go back late late August (or early September, depending on where you live).


May 24 usually. We used to start back 3rd week of August, but lately they have been pushing for year-round school.

Edit: Post #606: No. I am on summer vacation.
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Guys , those of you that pray remember my family in your prayers .....I just got a call my grandfather is passing away at the hospital I'm going now ...talk to you guys soon
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Quoting 576. 62901IL:
Gro, you getting anything from ex-chantal?


Clouds are very dark to the west here at FIU (West Miami), haven't had a chance to look at the radar though.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.