Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 702. StormJunkie:


So we're gonna say it is Invest 96L Chantal?


Appears so.
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Quoting 699. Tropicsweatherpr:
ATCF renumbered from AL03 to Invest 96L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP


So we're gonna say it is Invest 96L Chantal?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16311
Quoting 670. indianrivguy:


the happy Henry WU mail.. yes, glad you are back with us.
Had a wonderful time in Ohio IRG...Crazy traffic in Pigeon Forge (July 4th weekend)
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Quoting 684. nigel20:
Quoting 652. WalkingInTheSun:

Yeah, an American...speaking with a Jamaican accent was used in a VW ad, during the Superbowl. It was pretty funny though. :)


I think it is funny when fake Aussie, Brit, or Irish accents are used on radio or TV ads in the USA. lol. They know the real deal somehow is liked by Americans for it's foreign intrigue I suppose, but then use people faking it at times, BADLY. haha.
Hmm, I wonder if Americans go do voice-overs in other countries & are popular there, likewise.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
ATCF renumbered from AL03 to Invest 96L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
Africa's west coast looks pretty active. Looks like we are gonna have a few prospects. Mr D may just form next week. Aside from that am just eating up some curry chicken and rice and riding out this rain. God knows Jamaica is luckly
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So anyone? nrti? Is what we have now Invest Chantal?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16311
Quoting 685. ncstorm:
updated



Sick of Rain...... noticed the heaviest moved inland a little.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here are a few prospects for any future development in the MDR.


Yes indeed! We could very well get a couple more storms before the end of July.
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Quoting 682. WalkingInTheSun:
Is "Cr_p!" a non-allowed word, here?
I think it is about to get really ugly, fast, in the vicinity of Cuba!


Holy Carp - Fish will be coming on shore soon there.
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Quoting 673. sar2401:

No, we don't, which is pretty bizarre considering the NHC is giving the remnants a 30% chance of development. The "original" Chantal had a yellow circle at 20%. I really don't understand what the NHC is doing with the remnants. There are thunderstorms over Cuba, which there are every day in the summer. The remnants of Chantal aren't even a trough, and they look very unimpressive. It still seems like it should have a circle with a 30% chance of (re) development. If it actually did become a TD, I guess it would be named Chantal again, since it's in the same basin, but I think there's some time component also for how long it can be expired before it gets a new name.

I'm so confused. :-)


There is no time component for a system regaining it's original name that i know of. As long as the majority of the new development can be traced back to the original system, it will retain the name.
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If any storm gets too ugly near Key West,...just shine a bright light at it so maybe it'll dip to one side & crash into the side of Cuba, instead.
(Hey, it has to be weather-related, so I couldn't just mention the recent excuse from the San Fran crash.)
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting 666. Hurrihistory:
The big storm you are talking about was the Great Labor Day Hurricane of Sept.2,1935 which did not hit Key West. It hit Middle Keys around mile maker 82 in the town of Islamorada. A rescue train sent down from Miami was knocked over by a 18-foot storm surge and 200-MPH winds. The worst storm to ever hit Key West was the 1919 Hurricane which passed just to the South of the Island as a cat.4


sure? 1846 was pretty nasty too

Jerry Wilkinson;

1846 – Some experts estimate that if today's measuring devices had been available, the Great Hurricane of 1846 (October 11 and 12) would have been a category-5 hurricane. The collector of customs, Steven Mallory, wrote that of 600 houses at Key West all but eight were destroyed or damaged. The offshore Sand Key and harbor lighthouses were destroyed. Water rose to about 8-feet in the lower streets.

Really good stuff here.. too much to post....

Florida Keys
Sea Heritage Journal
VOL. 20 NO. 4 SUMMER 2010
USS SHARK
$2
OFFICIAL QUARTERLY PUBLICATION OF THE KEY WEST MARITIME HISTORICAL SOCIETY
Understanding the Key West Hurricane of 1846
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Quoting 541. ncstorm:

Farmers Almanac

July 2013
8th-11th. Showery rain for Gulf Coast and much of Southeast, followed by clearing.
12th-15th. Hot and humid.
16th-19th. Scattered showers, thunderstorms.
20th-23rd. Hot for Mississippi Valley and points east; with more scattered thunderstorms.
24th-27th. Some scattered thunderstorms, followed by clearing skies.
28th-31st. Sultry, with a renewed risk of some thunderstorms.

August 2013
1st-3rd. Sultry, hot; high humidity makes it feel like it's 110 to 115 degrees.
4th-7th. Continued hot, then afternoon showers pop up.
8th-11th. Hazy sunshine and humid.
12th-15th. Threat of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico.
16th-19th. Fair skies.
20th-23rd. Thunderstorms an ongoing threat.
24th-27th. Widespread thunderstorm activity continues.
28th-31st. Fair and pleasant for Mississippi Valley and points east; a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic should stay well offshore.

September 2013
1st-3rd. Scattered showers may dampen holiday plans, then fair.
4th-7th. Hurricane threat along the Atlantic seaboard; otherwise generally fair, very warm and humid.


You left off:

September 15 - World Ends
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Quoting 666. Hurrihistory:
The big storm you are talking about was the Great Labor Day Hurricane of Sept.2,1935 which did not hit Key West. It hit Middle Keys around mile maker 82 in the town of Islamorada. A rescue train sent down from Miami was knocked over by a 18-foot storm surge and 200-MPH winds. The worst storm to ever hit Key West was the 1919 Hurricane which passed just to the South of the Island as a cat.4

Was that the 1935 storm that James Temple (Lionel Barrymore) talked about in "Key Largo", -one of my favorite movies of all time when he was scaring the crap out of Johnny Rocco (Edward G. Robinson)?

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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
I say that if satellite trends continue, the NHC will up their probabilities to a high moderate (50%) or high chance (60%) at 8pm... being that they tend to be conservative. What say you?

Not from what I can see in the Bahamas. It has no circulation and not even the hint of being a low pressure trough. If it doesn't look better by 8:00, I would think they'll stop talking about it altogehter. The only reason it's still talked about now is the moisture load and the effects of excessive rainfall on Florida and Georgia, but even that doesn't look likely to me. Just joking, of course, but it's almost like there was an office pool at the NHC and the ones that picked TS in the Bahamas are going to do their best to keep it alive until they win the pool. :-)
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updated

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Quoting 652. WalkingInTheSun:

Yeah, an American...speaking with a Jamaican accent was used in a VW ad, during the Superbowl. It was pretty funny though. :)
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Quoting 651. PalmBeachWeather:
Ya ever fall down for no reason?
even worse have you ever stood up for no reason?
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Is "Cr_p!" a non-allowed word, here?
I think it is about to get really ugly, fast, in the vicinity of Cuba!
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Chantal, remnants of Chantal or the artist formerly known as Chantal or not....I am really not looking forward to 3-5 inches of freaking rain here in Charleston. We simply cannot handle any more water!
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Quoting 666. Hurrihistory:
The big storm you are talking about was the Great Labor Day Hurricane of Sept.2,1935 which did not hit Key West. It hit Middle Keys around mile maker 82 in the town of Islamorada. A rescue train sent down from Miami was knocked over by a 18-foot storm surge and 200-MPH winds. The worst storm to ever hit Key West was the 1919 Hurricane which passed just to the South of the Island as a cat.4
That storm was the end of the railroad Flagler built. All the WPA workers were left to fare for themselves..sent the train late.Very sad bit of weather history
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Could Chantal reform?

Could the ULL coming from the east trigger anything?
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Quoting 554. ncstorm:
anyone know when school lets back in?..not too soon if you ask me..
August 23
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 111552
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 11 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 12/1530Z
D. 28.5N 77.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 13/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0703A CHANTAL
C. 13/0900Z
D. 33.5N 76.5W
E. 13/1130Z TO 13/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A. LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 11/1800Z AND FIX
REQUIREMENT FOR 12/1200Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 11/1120Z.
B. 12/1800Z FIX REQUIREMENT NOW RETASKED AS AN INVEST
MISSION OUTLINED ABOVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 761
Quoting 669. ecflweatherfan:
I say that if satellite trends continue, the NHC will up their probabilities to a high moderate (50%) or high chance (60%) at 8pm... being that they tend to be conservative. What say you?

my guess is 40% chance at 8pm
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Quoting 669. ecflweatherfan:
I say that if satellite trends continue, the NHC will up their probabilities to a high moderate (50%) or high chance (60%) at 8pm... being that they tend to be conservative. What say you?


Seeing as the latest vorticity charts are showing a stacked-system, I think 30-40% is a fair bet. Could be wrong.
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Quoting 642. PalmBeachWeather:
You must be out west.Wellington, Acreage, Royal Palm..
Palm beach gardens
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Running models again huh. So do we officially have Invest Chantal now?


No, we don't, which is pretty bizarre considering the NHC is giving the remnants a 30% chance of development. The "original" Chantal had a yellow circle at 20%. I really don't understand what the NHC is doing with the remnants. There are thunderstorms over Cuba, which there are every day in the summer. The remnants of Chantal aren't even a trough, and they look very unimpressive. It still seems like it should have a circle with a 30% chance of (re) development. If it actually did become a TD, I guess it would be named Chantal again, since it's in the same basin, but I think there's some time component also for how long it can be expired before it gets a new name.

I'm so confused. :-)
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Quoting 666. Hurrihistory:
The big storm you are talking about was the Great Labor Day Hurricane of Sept.2,1935 which did not hit Key West. It hit Middle Keys around mile maker 82 in the town of Islamorada. A rescue train sent down from Miami was knocked over by a 18-foot storm surge and 200-MPH winds. The worst storm to ever hit Key West was the 1919 Hurricane which passed just to the South of the Island as a cat.4


Yes, I was talking about the 1935 storm, but not trying to say it hit Key West - I knew it hit higher up. My point was that all the Keys there have a reef, so if that storm piled in such a big surge, Key West should not think she is immune to hurricanes, herself. Some people there just have a notion like it is.
-- Thanks for the history refresher, btw.
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Check out the Northern Gulf on Monday.............
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Quoting 665. PalmBeachWeather:
IRG........Get my email?


the happy Henry WU mail.. yes, glad you are back with us.
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I say that if satellite trends continue, the NHC will up their probabilities to a high moderate (50%) or high chance (60%) at 8pm... being that they tend to be conservative. What say you?
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I believe that this system will continue to slowly track W to WNW towards the W tip of Cuba, before turning north towards Fl Panhandle.

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its going to be a very WET weekend Florida geez............
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Quoting 623. WalkingInTheSun:


No problem. I remember KW's highest point was a trash island on the next little isle, lol,...or go up into one of the high-rises. I recall people down there used to talk about how hurricanes don't go there -- that the reef protected them. Don't buy it. Long ago, a train got washed off the old railway lines down that way by a big storm. If anything looks bad, Key West is NOT the place to try to hunker down, IMHO.
The big storm you are talking about was the Great Labor Day Hurricane of Sept.2,1935 which did not hit Key West. It hit Middle Keys around mile maker 82 in the town of Islamorada. A rescue train sent down from Miami was knocked over by a 18-foot storm surge and 200-MPH winds. The worst storm to ever hit Key West was the 1919 Hurricane which passed just to the South of the Island as a cat.4
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Quoting 663. indianrivguy:
IRG........Get my email?
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Quoting 657. GetReal:



Finally slowed down and coming together... Should be an interesting DMAX over those warm bath waters.



That area of the Atlantic is known for quick spins up such as Katrina, the Intensification of Rita and Ike as they passed through and other well known systems.

The NHC prediction of a Tropical Depression going up the east coast doesn't seem so far fetched now:
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
There's an ULL to the ENE of Chantal's northern half and getting closer. Then there's another ULL to the south of Florida trying to pull up the southern half of Chantal, but at the same time it's helping to pull in moist air towards it. And then to top it all off, there's dry air starting to push in behind Chantal now.

Link

So many things going on that it's so difficult to really forecast anything.
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Here are a few prospects for any future development in the MDR.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
Quoting 645. WalkingInTheSun:


Take a look at the water-vapor loop for your area.
It REALLY is starting to look like the little low just north of Cuba is wanting to do something, IMO -- looks really spooky to me! I'd say start making plans & considering options...just in case it does. You don't want to get stuck flat-footed in Key West if something winds up slowly & simply hovers near there 'til it's too big to leave safely.

Sure, it is nothing at the moment, but just saying keep the possibilities in mind. Ignoring them has hurt lots of people in times past.

That is exactly why I come to this site...thanks for all the input everyone...think I'm going to go cover up my bird cage...at least.
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Finally slowed down and coming together... Should be an interesting DMAX over those warm bath waters.

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Quoting 646. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maps from UW-CIMSS indicate that vorticity from 850-500mb has become stacked southeast of Andros Island.

850:



700:



500:



It does look a little threatening, doesn't it, TA?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26007
Quoting 646. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maps from UW-CIMSS indicate that vorticity from 850-500mb has become stacked southeast of Grand Bahama.

850:



700:



500:



Hence the blowup in thunderstorms in that area. I believe this will be our new CoC for former Chantal. Already appears as such in that area, with a nice swirl around 22N 76W.
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Quoting 650. zampaz:

Like the potential of "unthinkable sequestration?"
Oh...but that was a matter of reasonable compromise not the result of a corpse coming to life and eating your brains out...???


My you can be so poetic. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26007
Quoting 650. zampaz:

Like the potential of "unthinkable sequestration?"
Oh...but that was a matter of reasonable compromise not the result of a corpse coming to life and eating your brains out...???


Sequestration! -- It caused Chantal to split?!
Dar-ned sequester!
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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