Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Remember what I called Chantal , she is Sybil , now with multiple blobs , that's for you Gro, so which blob wins the right to be her new center , and in the past the NHC has stuck with the original name , so still Miss Chantal!
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rigor mortis??
Quoting 729. PalmBeachWeather:
Why do Zombies walk that way... When they die does someone put steel rods in their legs so they can't genuflex?
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Quoting 722. intampa:
same here in the riverview area of fl, just south of tampa. no rain at all for days now. very very hot and dry here since that last bit of rain we had about a week ago.


I'm not sure what you're talking about, but I think you have things confused. If you live anywhere near Riverview, its been anything but dry. Rain reports from there confirm that rainfall has been very heavy there overall the past few weeks including recently.

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Quoting 724. CybrTeddy:
We've had numerous named storms dissipate and reform over the last years, not a one of them have been renumbered to an invest. This leads me to believe the blow-up south of Cuba is the remnant wave-axis of Chantal, going off the NHC track yesterday, and this is just energy related to Chantal. Whatever forms of 96L, it will be Dorian.
u are right because its invest 96L its a new storm if it was Chantal its will go to invest 03 L
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Quoting 737. nash36:


You guys crack me up. It's like Harry Potter in here when uttering Voldemort. LOL!!


What's a blog without a little levity?

K?
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Quoting 739. StormJunkie:


The NRL almost always renumbers even before the ATCF is released to the public...Almost always.


Interesting, I've always seen it the exact opposite when I check the NRL site right after an ATCF renumber. We'll find out in the next few minutes.
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Quoting 742. Dakster:


Rumpelstiltskin. Rumpelstiltskin. Rumpelstiltskin.

Yes - everytime I mention it I get chastised... My turn now.

Justin Bieber, Justin Bieber, Justin Bieber...Same here Dak
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Quoting 731. hurricanes2018:
The National Weather Service has officially confirmed that on 7/10/2013, a tornado of EF1 strength was confirmed in Andover. This tornado traveled for 11.2 miles with a maximum width of 100 yards. It was estimated to reach the ground at 5:20PM and finally lifted after moving through Andover, Coventry, and finally Mansfield. It was determined to have lifted at about 5:51, totaling just over half an hour on the ground. Along the damage path, there were numerous uprooted trees, and tree tops snapped off. A metal shed was ripped apart, and that was the worst structural damage reported (a barn roof lifted). Based on the observed damage, the NWS estimated the max wind speed to be around 90mph.



Two things - 1. What makes them think there was a tornado there and why did it take so long to confirm (with that photo...)

2. Only in America can North be to the left and straight ahead.
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Hey folks, in and out with a short evening visit.

1) First: Dave Petley has two updates on his landslide blog, the last one is:
11 July 2013 Monsoon mayhem in Central China

2) Second: BBC weather video: Sandstorm engulfs Arizona town

3) Third and a bit mind boggling:
Fracking Wastewater Disposal Seen Linked to Earthquakes
By Justin Doom - Jul 11, 2013 8:00 PM GMT 0200


Fourth and last, excuse me, is of course:

What does it tell me? Well, as I'am way too tired tonight, so not much right now, but something came to life again. I head into bed because of an early morning meeting.

Nice conversations for you!
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The convection is expected as the trade wind surge piles in behind the wave axis. Upper-level flow is from a suppressive WNW direction at the moment, but like I said this morning, I think the whole wave should be watched as it nears the Yucatan and eventually crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will be improving as it goes.
-Levi32
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With the way the vorticity seems to be stacking up, I would expect the convection south of Cuba around Jamaica to start to dissipate soon and maybe some organization of the stuff north of Cuba in the southern Bahamas. I'm still skeptical of anything forming out of this though.


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Quoting 737. nash36:


You guys crack me up. It's like Harry Potter in here when uttering Voldemort. LOL!!


Rumpelstiltskin. Rumpelstiltskin. Rumpelstiltskin.

Yes - everytime I mention it I get chastised... My turn now.

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Quoting 622. Grothar:


It really is beginning to look threatening.






Well plenty of rain yes, but no signs of any significant redevelopment. I'm not saying it can't or won't, but the chance seems a bit low.
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If you are confused, join the crowd. I think best to just watch and see what happens. This is the most unpredictable system I've seen in years.
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Quoting 734. CybrTeddy:


The ATCF comes straight from the NHC, perhaps the NRL hasn't updated it yet?


The NRL almost always renumbers even before the ATCF is released to the public...Almost always.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Yikes!
-- Er, I mean, Yates!
Dorian Yates was a massive body-builder, so could "Dorian" be an ominous name for the storm?
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 730. Dakster:



You said the 'K' word.


You guys crack me up. It's like Harry Potter in here when uttering Voldemort. LOL!!
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Quoting 709. Hurrihistory:
Very sad as about 500 people (WWI Vets and Locals) were killed in that storm because the relief train was dispatched to late. The Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 is a text book example of what could happen to South Florida during any given Hurricane Season. That's why even a weak system like Chantal has to be looked at very carefully. The Labor Day Hurricane started out as a weak Tropical Storm just three days earlier in the central Bahamas.
May I recommend an interesting book "Charlotte's Story" true account of a couple who lived on Elliot Key and sat out the 35 hurricane there. Now I will scoot before I get clobbered in here...Thanks ALL.
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Quoting 732. StormJunkie:
Then why no renumber here?

Same wave, same name. I'm betting they don't pull another TD10/12 on us with this one...But as someone else said, sometimes...Predicting what the NHC will do is harder than predicting the storm.


The ATCF comes straight from the NHC, perhaps the NRL hasn't updated it yet?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
We've had numerous named storms dissipate and reform over the last years, not a one of them have been renumbered to an invest. This leads me to believe the blow-up south of Cuba is the remnant wave-axis of Chantal, as per the NHC track yesterday, and this is just energy related to Chantal. Whatever forms of 96L, it will be Dorian.

So will still could get Dorian though it would be from remnants of Chantal..
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Then why no renumber here?

Same wave, same name. I'm betting they don't pull another TD10/12 on us with this one...But as someone else said, sometimes...Predicting what the NHC will do is harder than predicting the storm.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
The National Weather Service has officially confirmed that on 7/10/2013, a tornado of EF1 strength was confirmed in Andover. This tornado traveled for 11.2 miles with a maximum width of 100 yards. It was estimated to reach the ground at 5:20PM and finally lifted after moving through Andover, Coventry, and finally Mansfield. It was determined to have lifted at about 5:51, totaling just over half an hour on the ground. Along the damage path, there were numerous uprooted trees, and tree tops snapped off. A metal shed was ripped apart, and that was the worst structural damage reported (a barn roof lifted). Based on the observed damage, the NWS estimated the max wind speed to be around 90mph.

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Quoting 714. Camille33:
96l looks like Katrina when it formed right now...that small tstm cluster is up to no good.



You said the 'K' word.
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Quoting 723. PedleyCA:


Oh, NO Chantal Zombies....
Why do Zombies walk that way... When they die does someone put steel rods in their legs so they can't genuflex?
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Quoting 709. Hurrihistory:
Very sad as about 500 people (WWI Vets and Locals) were killed in that storm because the relief train was dispatched to late. The Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 is a text book example of what could happen to South Florida during any given Hurricane Season. That's why even a weak system like Chantal has to be looked at very carefully. The Labor Day Hurricane started out as a weak Tropical Storm just three days earlier in the central Bahamas.


Made a post.. 690, just for you....
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Quoting 713. FIUStormChaser:
The question is where is the current center of this mess? Still to the SE of Andros?


That seems to be the best guess per models, CIMSS, and naked eye. Although just east of Eleuthra looks suspect to my novice eye.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
It could be a Frankenstein storm, taking parts from here & there. Hmm, could call it "Doriantal"?
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
But the cat came back, he couldn't stay no long-er,

Yes the cat came back de very next day,

the cat came back—thought she were a goner,

But the cat came back for it wouldn't stay away.
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We've had numerous named storms dissipate and reform over the last years, not a one of them have been renumbered to an invest. This leads me to believe the blow-up south of Cuba is the remnant wave-axis of Chantal, going off the NHC track yesterday, and this is just energy related to Chantal. Whatever forms of 96L, it will be Dorian.
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Quoting 572. Astrometeor:


Perhaps in that there are no longer any advisories, but she's still a threat...and in more than one way too.

Maybe a better word for Chantal is "undead".


Oh, NO Chantal Zombies....
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Quoting 717. ecflweatherfan:
Nasty weather approaching the Space Coast this afternoon, moving NE at 15. Special Weather Statement issued. Sure need the rain at my house here in Brevard County... Can't say the same for most of the rest of the state of FL.
same here in the riverview area of fl, just south of tampa. no rain at all for days now. very very hot and dry here since that last bit of rain we had about a week ago.
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US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
A Flood Watch has been issued for our entire county warning area (Southeast North Carolina and Northeast South Carolina) until Friday afternoon. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall are possible tonight through Friday with locally higher amounts.

With the abundant rainfall we received in June, combined with the fact that several local rivers are still above flood stage, there is an enhanced threat of flooding in our area. Please monitor http://www.weather.gov/ilm for the latest updates!
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IF the remnants of Chantal get drawn into the old Low pressure in the Florida Straits, wouldn't that actually be a new named storm entirely, if it develops around that different low rather than the Chantal remnant itself?
Sure, it would be stealing Chantal's moisture, but would be a totally different L-pressure area origin, right?
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Quoting 708. CybrTeddy:
Chantal dissipated, whatever forms out of this mess will be Dorian.

Here's our new invest, 96L.
Quoting 708. CybrTeddy:
Chantal dissipated, whatever forms out of this mess will be Dorian.

Here's our new invest, 96L.
This is unfair it will always be Chantal for me.
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Quoting 708. CybrTeddy:
Chantal dissipated,whatever forms out of this mess will be Dorian.

Here's our new invest, 96L.


This is a good question about if it will still be Chantal or it gets a new name.
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Nasty weather approaching the Space Coast this afternoon, moving NE at 15. Special Weather Statement issued. Sure need the rain at my house here in Brevard County... Can't say the same for most of the rest of the state of FL.
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Quoting 704. Dakster:


Way to get tot he 'D' storm by cheating....


I don't think it would be the D storm...It would still be Chantal It would just be 95L, TD3, Chantal, nothing that's something, 96L, TD3, Chantal. Everyone follow that? lol
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Quoting 651. PalmBeachWeather:
Ya ever fall down for no reason?
Ya ever get that terrible ,painful cramp when you are asleep in bed when you point your toes outward??
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96l looks like Katrina when it formed right now...that small tstm cluster is up to no good.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1256
The question is where is the current center of this mess? Still to the SE of Andros?
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 505
Looks like the new center of Chantal is on the Southern tip of Cuba , West of Guantanamo prison . If so she will have more time to strengthen , and then up the state of Florida on the West coast.
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Quoting 707. StormJunkie:


lmao...Afternoon Nash.


Howdy SJ. I don't expect much to come from this. Perhaps it "could" become a TD, but I am not counting on it.
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Quoting 699. Tropicsweatherpr:
ATCF renumbered from AL03 to Invest 96L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
Chantal, you just don't wanna die do you? :) Would this still be Chantal, or now Dorian?
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Quoting 680. KeyWestbeachcomber:
That storm was the end of the railroad Flagler built. All the WPA workers were left to fare for themselves..sent the train late.Very sad bit of weather history
Very sad as about 500 people (WWI Vets and Locals) were killed in that storm because the relief train was dispatched to late. The Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 is a text book example of what could happen to South Florida during any given Hurricane Season. That's why even a weak system like Chantal has to be looked at very carefully. The Labor Day Hurricane started out as a weak Tropical Storm just three days earlier in the central Bahamas.
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Chantal dissipated, whatever forms out of this mess will be Dorian.

Here's our new invest, 96L.
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Quoting 703. nash36:


Appears so.


lmao...Afternoon Nash.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Quoting 693. Dakster:


Holy Carp - Fish will be coming on shore soon there.


-- You mean, "Crappie"?
Lol, but alas, they are both freshwater species.
Maybe "Cuda" is better.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
I don't expect the NHC to go too high...probably 40%.

I'd give the remnants a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone again over the next 48 hours.
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Quoting 703. nash36:


Appears so.


Way to get tot he 'D' storm by cheating....
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Quoting 702. StormJunkie:


So we're gonna say it is Invest 96L Chantal?


Appears so.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.