Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 793. StormJunkie:


Highly unlikely anything gets as far W as the GOM. General track will be WNW-NW towards Fl E coast, Georgia, or The Carolinas (Figured maybe if I capitalized the The it would make presslord a little less grumpy)


I don't think remnants of Chantal will enter the Gom from the So., as via the Yucatan Channel. I tend to agree with you, initially, too, that the mass will gravitate No. But, I think it may try to wrap around that little low in the straits of Fl. If so, I see it with little chance it will go anywhere but drift (slowly?) to the West, into the SE GOM.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 794. WalkingInTheSun:


Two Great Danes?
Is it just the poo or are they big barkers?
As a kid, my family had a dog that barked at who knows what..in the night. Neighbors called the cops I think. So, we boys in the family decided PB sandwiches - heavy on the PB - would help quiet him down a bit.


With an ex-lax chaser?
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Chantal got her convection stuck behind the islands.
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A change of tone from the Miami NWS

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS EAST OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
PLENTY OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FLARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN
CUBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A REMNANT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE
12Z GFS RUN NOW INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND LIFTING
NORTH FROM THIS GENERAL AREA OVER THE GULF STREAM JUST EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE/RAINFALL PROJECTED TO REMAIN TO ITS EAST OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...REGENERATION IS CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF QUESTION AND ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST AS UPDATES MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE UPCOMING 24
HRS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
Windy conditions here...SE 30 MPH not long ago with an area of storms associated with the Caribbean convective Blob
Link
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Quoting 793. StormJunkie:


Highly unlikely anything gets as far W as the GOM. General track will be WNW-NW towards Fl E coast, Georgia, or The Carolinas (Figured maybe if I capitalized the The it would make presslord a little less grumpy)
It wont....He jumped already even when capitalized.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
Quoting 790. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, I know. That's why I used the 1000-1010 mb steering map. If the system becomes deeper than anticipes (<1000mb), there's a chance it takes a jog towards the northeast before curving back towards the coastline. Not sold on this going into Florida, though they should get a glancing blow. GFS and CMC show the system going into South Carolina and North Carolina, respectively, and I see no reason to disagree.


Hey TAWX13,

It would be nice to have Recon out there, just to See the dynamics of the situation.
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I believe this will surely develop in 2 or 3 days....If not, I,ll saute it in olive oil and call it health food.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
Quoting 778. sar2401:

That was the Florida East Coast Railroad, and they and the WPA have been unfairly and untruthfully castigated for not sending a rescue train in a timely manner. Hurricane warnings didn't go up until the afternoon of September 1. A 10 car train was assembled and dispatched within one hour from Homestead, and passing through Upper Matecumbe Key at about 4:00 am on September 2. The train could not travel at faster than 20 mph because the 10 cars were being pushed by locomotive #447, since there was no place to turn the train north of Key West, and the FEC wanted the engineer to be able to watch the track as the train returned north at full speed, since it was assumed that the hurricane would be close to being onshore by the night of September 2. Unknown to the engineer and crew was the fact the hurricane was already coming ashore, and the storm surge, estimated at 18 feet, was about to overtake the train.

Because the train was being backed, there was only one crew member, the rear end brakeman on the last car of the train, which was the first car facing south in the train's configuration. The engineer, fireman, head end brakeman, adn conductor were all riding in the engine. When the storm surge hit, all 10 passenger cars were swept from the rails and overturned or laid on their sides. There were no WPA workers on the train, since the train never made it to Lower Matecumbe Key and Windley Key, where the WPA camps were located. The rear end brakemen was killed, but all the other crew member survived because the #447 miraculously stayed upright and on the tracks. The crew walked though waist deep water and debris for 9 miles in the predawn darkness until they were able to find a working telegraph line, attach a portable key, and let the FEC officials in Florida City know of the magnitude of the disaster. They were the first ones to get the word out, which started a massive rescue effort by the Coast Guard and Navy. The FEC provided ferries to cover the areas that were washed away and built temporary trestles as soon as materials were available.

Sorry for the long-winded story, but my great uncle happened to be the head-end brakeman on that train and told me the story of that day and night several times before he passed away in 1964. The train crew members were heroes, and I'd like them to be remembered as such, instead of villains that abandoned the WPA men to their fate.
I meant no disrespect. That train was bustin to leave and they (someone) down the keys..in Key West was not on duty...massive miscommunications.
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Quoting 787. KeyWestbeachcomber:
Oh oh please don't get me started,I have a real potty mouth esp. when you live on a two by four island and your neighbor owns 2 Great Danes... well anything goes here,so we put up with all the Cr+p...live and let live..to each his own...bla bla bla


Two Great Danes?
Is it just the poo or are they big barkers?
As a kid, my family had a dog that barked at who knows what..in the night. Neighbors called the cops I think. So, we boys in the family decided PB sandwiches - heavy on the PB - would help quiet him down a bit.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 791. WalkingInTheSun:


Nice maps. I also think the FL-Cuba low is closer to more available moisture, overall. Could suck it in from NE GOM, W Carib. and old remnants of Chantal -- maybe even So. Carib., too. Then, the rather inactive zone just W of the Keys in the SE GOM seems a fine brewing-pot for something to happen in.


Highly unlikely anything gets as far W as the GOM. General track will be WNW-NW towards Fl E coast, Georgia, or The Carolinas (Figured maybe if I capitalized the The it would make presslord a little less grumpy)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Quoting 788. BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.

Starting to get a bit overcast towards the east, but still clear to the west.. I wonder why?


What's your pressure reading? And

Do you guys have a Radar in the Bahamas? I can't find one.
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Quoting 781. StormJunkie:


850mb


700mb


500mb


Seeing as how that is where CIMSS is showing a somewhat stacked vort center...That is fairly logical. Although the area E of Eleuthra still intrigues me...


Nice maps. I also think the FL-Cuba low is closer to more available moisture, overall. Could suck it in from NE GOM, W Carib. and old remnants of Chantal -- maybe even So. Carib., too. Then, the rather inactive zone just W of the Keys in the SE GOM seems a fine brewing-pot for something to happen in.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 779. Jedkins01:


It's a tropical wave, it will move across Florida and the Carolinas. This isn't a hurricane with a tight center, but a wave. It will move northwest, than north, bringing increased moisture across southeast from Florida through Georgia and the Carolinas. The WPC rainfall forecast across the southeast over the next 7 days seems a bit on the conservative side given another slow moving trough and the deep moisture from Chantal's remnants moving in.

Lol, I know. That's why I used the 1000-1010 mb steering map. If the system becomes deeper than anticipated (<1000mb), there's a chance it takes a jog towards the northeast before curving back towards the coastline. Not sold on this going into Florida, though they should get a glancing blow. GFS and CMC show the system going into South Carolina and North Carolina, respectively, and I see no reason to disagree.
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I have figured out a sure fire way to keep tropical systems away from your area...

Put a buoy in your front yard.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Afternoon all.

Starting to get a bit overcast towards the east, but still clear to the west.. I wonder why?
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Quoting 775. WalkingInTheSun:


Ummm, you said CR+p!
I bet you say CR_d, too.
Well, if it does come that way, maybe it'll clean the pet-poo off all the grassy areas of the island. It gets like a mine-field there, esp. on the W-end, sometimes. lol.
Oh oh please don't get me started,I have a real potty mouth esp. when you live on a two by four island and your neighbor owns 2 Great Danes... well anything goes here,so we put up with all the Cr+p...live and let live..to each his own...bla bla bla
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Looking at Satellites it appears to be a battle between what's left of the ULL between N. Cuba and Key west and the MLC left from Chantal in the east Bahamas, to get enough energy to be come the next LLC.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
Quoting 774. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Should track generally north until that weakness closes and high pressure forces it northwest. Got my bets on South Carolina.



Your map makes me even more convinced the old Chantal moisture might adhere to that little low in the Fl Straits, then head for the GOM. - little resistance, dull, slow time to build.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 776. Jedkins01:


Alrighty, but I think I'll trust the NWS and SWFL water managements assessment, sorry:



Want to trade?

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Quoting 774. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Should track generally north until that weakness closes and high pressure forces it northwest. Got my bets on South Carolina.



Will skirt Florida and pass over Grand Bahamas though.
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Quoting 776. Jedkins01:


Alrighty, but I think I'll trust the NWS and SWFL water managements assessment, sorry:




If that continues Florida is going to be a blue state.
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Quoting 773. WalkingInTheSun:
Remnants of Chantal are seeming to look not so robust, yet again. Since the only circulation I see in the region seems to be that persistent little swirly off the N coast of Cuba, I think as the entire blobularity moves W/NW, it could focus itself around that if any rebuilding takes place. Just my opinion.


850mb


700mb


500mb


Seeing as how that is where CIMSS is showing a somewhat stacked vort center...That is fairly logical. Although the area E of Eleuthra still intrigues me...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Quoting 777. nash36:


That's what our forecast has been hinting at. Stalled front combined with the remnant moisture of Chantal=washout weekend. :-(

The entire area here in southeastern North Carolina is under a flood watch...expecting several inches between tonight and Saturday night.

I don't want it!
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Quoting 774. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Should track generally north until that weakness closes and high pressure forces it northwest. Got my bets on South Carolina.



It's a tropical wave, it will move across Florida and the Carolinas. This isn't a hurricane with a tight center, but a wave. It will move northwest, than north, bringing increased moisture across southeast from Florida through Georgia and the Carolinas. The WPC rainfall forecast across the southeast over the next 7 days seems a bit on the conservative side given another slow moving trough and the deep moisture from Chantal's remnants moving in.
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Quoting KeyWestbeachcomber:
That storm was the end of the railroad Flagler built. All the WPA workers were left to fare for themselves..sent the train late.Very sad bit of weather history

That was the Florida East Coast Railroad, and they and the WPA have been unfairly and untruthfully castigated for not sending a rescue train in a timely manner. Hurricane warnings didn't go up until the afternoon of September 1. A 10 car train was assembled and dispatched within one hour from Homestead, and passing through Upper Matecumbe Key at about 4:00 am on September 2. The train could not travel at faster than 20 mph because the 10 cars were being pushed by locomotive #447, since there was no place to turn the train north of Key West, and the FEC wanted the engineer to be able to watch the track as the train returned north at full speed, since it was assumed that the hurricane would be close to being onshore by the night of September 2. Unknown to the engineer and crew was the fact the hurricane was already coming ashore, and the storm surge, estimated at 18 feet, was about to overtake the train.

Because the train was being backed, there was only one crew member, the rear end brakeman on the last car of the train, which was the first car facing south in the train's configuration. The engineer, fireman, head end brakeman, adn conductor were all riding in the engine. When the storm surge hit, all 10 passenger cars were swept from the rails and overturned or laid on their sides. There were no WPA workers on the train, since the train never made it to Lower Matecumbe Key and Windley Key, where the WPA camps were located. The rear end brakemen was killed, but all the other crew member survived because the #447 miraculously stayed upright and on the tracks. The crew walked though waist deep water and debris for 9 miles in the predawn darkness until they were able to find a working telegraph line, attach a portable key, and let the FEC officials in Florida City know of the magnitude of the disaster. They were the first ones to get the word out, which started a massive rescue effort by the Coast Guard and Navy. The FEC provided ferries to cover the areas that were washed away and built temporary trestles as soon as materials were available.

Sorry for the long-winded story, but my great uncle happened to be the head-end brakeman on that train and told me the story of that day and night several times before he passed away in 1964. The train crew members were heroes, and I'd like them to be remembered as such, instead of villains that abandoned the WPA men to their fate.
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Quoting 774. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Should track generally north until that weakness closes and high pressure forces it northwest. Got my bets on South Carolina.



That's what our forecast has been hinting at. Stalled front combined with the remnant moisture of Chantal=washout weekend. :-(
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 481
Quoting 756. intampa:
what im talking about is i live on riverview dr. i have not had any rainfall since sunday. we had a very light shower this morning that didnt even wet the streets under the trees or settle the dust in the backyard. when i dig down in the dirt/sand its dry underneath the very very top layer of soil. its been very hot with sun beating down so all the plants are wilted and dry in my backyard so at my part of riverview its been very hot and dry the past several days. so im not sure what your talking about


Alrighty, but I think I'll trust the NWS and SWFL water managements assessment, sorry:




This indicates very wet soil conditions across much of Florida, NWS data from rain gauge and soil estimates indicated between 5 and 10 inches have fallen across all of West Central Florida over the past couple weeks with localized regions of even 3 to 5 inches higher than that. That isn't exactly drought, in fact its even above our normal high rainy season totals.
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Quoting 772. KeyWestbeachcomber:
I have a hard nuff time cleaning out the CR p people throw in my garden on this rock they call paradise...FEMA will have to do that...lol


Ummm, you said CR p!
I bet you say CR_d, too.
Well, if it does come that way, maybe it'll clean the pet-poo off all the grassy areas of the island. It gets like a mine-field there, esp. on the W-end, sometimes. lol. I think it's from all the tourists bringing their pets with them on vacation stays.
-- Pretty island, though!
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 771. Jedkins01:
I'm not really sure why the NHC is referring to the remnants of Chantal as passing east of Florida when it is more reasonable for it to move across Florida.

I could be wrong, but that seems to be the case to me. Also, I don't really get the point anyway because its an open wave and development could occur both further east or further west.

Should track generally north until that weakness closes and high pressure forces it northwest. Got my bets on South Carolina.

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Remnants of Chantal are seeming to look not so robust, yet again. Since the only circulation I see in the region seems to be that persistent little swirly off the N coast of Cuba, I think as the entire blobularity moves W/NW, it could focus itself around that if any rebuilding takes place. Just my opinion.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 755. WalkingInTheSun:


Uhmm, so, if a really huge storm brews up there on the No. side of Cuba, wipes out Key West's Mount Trashmore and scatters trash all along the way to the Louisiana-Mississippi coasts, won't they be miffed as h3_l and want you guys to pay for that cleanup? ;)
I have a hard nuff time cleaning out the CR+p people throw in my garden on this rock they call paradise...FEMA will have to do that...lol
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I'm not really sure why the NHC is referring to the remnants of Chantal as passing east of Florida when it is more reasonable for it to move across Florida.

I could be wrong, but that seems to be the case to me. Also, I don't really get the point anyway because its an open wave and development could occur both further east or further west.
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Quoting 766. vlaming:


That would make it Dorian if it reforms?


Yes.
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They changed there MJO forecast not a as dry out there our D should be able to tap some miost air




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Quoting 758. WalkingInTheSun:


-- Joe Biden, Joe Biden, Joe Biden!?


JFV, JFV, JFV....

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I get the feeling this system with it ups and downs and ups in difficult situations will eventually redevelop if it finds marginal conditions. There is something missing in all the data, maybe someday we will understand this.
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Quoting 699. Tropicsweatherpr:
ATCF renumbered from AL03 to Invest 96L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP


That would make it Dorian if it reforms?
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Quoting 762. StormJunkie:


Certainly the most likely scenario...But what would your naming guess be at this point?

I'm sticking by the NRL...Chantal


I'd say Chantal. However, it might make more sense to name it Chorian should it develop:-)
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 481
Quoting 757. hurricanes2018:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP CRAZY


Ok... I don't ever remember seeing that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some historical 96l storms..... Debby and Marco.Buckle up guys.
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Quoting 754. nash36:
I'll be surprised if this becomes anything other than 96L.


Certainly the most likely scenario...But what would your naming guess be at this point?

I'm sticking by the NRL...Chantal
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Quoting 720. WalkingInTheSun:
IF the remnants of Chantal get drawn into the old Low pressure in the Florida Straits, wouldn't that actually be a new named storm entirely, if it develops around that different low rather than the Chantal remnant itself?
Sure, it would be stealing Chantal's moisture, but would be a totally different L-pressure area origin, right?


From years past the NHC has retained the same name if the low level or broad circulation can be tracked using satellite pics, and surface observations etc. Chantal as had no real circulation for 34 or so hours. If regeneration does occur the NHC will give hints in their Tropical Update or Special Advisory segments before issuing new advisories. Since last night they have not been using the name Chantal on graphics as an L with an X beside it. That might be a clue
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Good night with some summerflowers from my big balcony (unfortunately at the back side of my house with no view except to the windows of my dear neighbours, lol). We're in a period of stable and pleasent summerweather. Our fellow blogger largeeyes form the US (FL oder TX?), in exile in Berlin for several months already, should have a little break in complaining about german weather.

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shear droppin


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Quoting 747. PalmBeachWeather:
Justin Bieber, Justin Bieber, Justin Bieber...Same here Dak


-- Joe Biden, Joe Biden, Joe Biden!?
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP CRAZY
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 11051
Quoting 751. Jedkins01:


I'm not sure what you're talking about, but I think you have things confused. If you live anywhere near Riverview, its been anything but dry. Rain reports from there confirm that rainfall has been very heavy there overall the past few weeks including recently.

what im talking about is i live on riverview dr. i have not had any rainfall since sunday. we had a very light shower this morning that didnt even wet the streets under the trees or settle the dust in the backyard. when i dig down in the dirt/sand its dry underneath the very very top layer of soil. its been very hot with sun beating down so all the plants are wilted and dry in my backyard so at my part of riverview its been very hot and dry the past several days. so im not sure what your talking about
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 736. KeyWestbeachcomber:
May I recommend an interesting book "Charlotte's Story" true account of a couple who lived on Elliot Key and sat out the 35 hurricane there. Now I will scoot before I get clobbered in here...Thanks ALL.


Uhmm, so, if a really huge storm brews up there on the No. side of Cuba, wipes out Key West's Mount Trashmore and scatters trash all along the way to the Louisiana-Mississippi coasts, won't they be miffed as h3_l and want you guys to pay for that cleanup? ;)
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
I'll be surprised if this becomes anything other than 96L.
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 481
Remember what I called Chantal , she is Sybil , now with multiple blobs , that's for you Gro, so which blob wins the right to be her new center , and in the past the NHC has stuck with the original name , so still Miss Chantal!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.