Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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So now that we have a totally new invest, can we please get the GHCC back in rapid scan?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16229
Quoting 883. hydrus:
Maybe the ULL and Chantal low get stacked vertically .


Sounds like a marriage made in h3_l.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
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Quoting 873. CaribBoy:
The 18Z GFS *develops* another "quick-moving-bust". I just can't call these pathetic things tropical cyclones! Ernesto, TD7 and Isaac of 2012... and more recently Chantal.... all were busts.

Yes Martinique got 60MPH winds during Chantal... but only during 2 hours...


Issac was NOT a bust. Widespread 14 to 20 inches of rain, over-topping levees, and putting power out widespread for 2 days (or more in many cases) isn't a bust.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
So guessing by the renumber on the NRL, those that said it would be TD4 or Dorian have it correct. Another TD10/12 scenario...lol
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16229
Quoting 877. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sharknado? Interesting I might tune into that tonight. I love Sci-Fi movies.

Any way you put it:

SyFy =/= Sci-Fi
-or-
SyFy .NE. Sci-Fi

The old days when the "Dune" series was produced are long gone...but a rubber monster in a tornado with a cup of tea is always good for what ails ya ;)
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
Quoting 848. WalkingInTheSun:


It is the only thing close & happening...at all...and has been somewhat unpredictable....could still redevelop.....AND....during hurricane season, with hot costal waters, ripe humidity, and apparent building T-storms,...it is not wise to ignore the....possibility...that it could reform. Some people might like to find someone cares about that if they live close to where it might reform & would want to know in advance if it were to do so. It could save lives & property. Plus, it is fun watching things in nature at work.
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I'm thinking 1-2 more storms in July, what about you guys?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8018
Quoting 873. CaribBoy:
The 18Z GFS *develops* another "quick-moving-bust". I just can't call these pathetic things tropical cyclones! Ernesto, TD7 and Isaac of 2012... and more recently Chantal.... all were busts.

Yes Martinique got 60MPH winds during Chantal... but only during 2 hours...
July 11
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting 876. violet312s:


It was intentionally made to be terrible. I think I'll watch it too for the guffaws.


I don't think they were guffaws. I think they were barracudas.
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I still think it looks as if the old ULL in the Fl. Straits grabs the most energy it would be a different system. Therefore 96L.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting 854. JeffMasters:




Hmm, "Sharknado", wow! Asylum films are definitely an unusual breed. I end up laughing uproariously until I have to turn off their movies because they are so ridiculous. From the looks of the trailer, the count of impossible meteorological events is sure to set a new record for a film.

Jeff Masters


A group of us have a "bad movie night" a couple of times a year. Just an excuse to drink and eat. Until the SYFY started putting their movies out, we mainly relied on old Sci-fi and bad westerns from the 50's & early 60's. I will definitely have to record this one. It sounds like a prime candidate
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
So, 96L = Dorian ? once again, weird!
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Quoting 832. sar2401:

***COUGH***Look at join date and post count***COUGH***lives under a bridge***COUGH.


Well, if he does live under a bridge, I guess that could give him an attitude, but also might mean something like this is his main contact with a sort of sense of normalcy, too. We just never know.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
96L is up




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Quoting 866. Patrap:

Pretty decent upper low sitting in the Florida Straits there.

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Quoting 881. WeatherfanPR:


very good question because it says that this is a completely new system. again, weird!


It's clearly some sort of remnant of Chantal coc or vort max or such, but whatever, they'll call it what they like. It's almost exactly where Chantal would have been if it didn't fall apart.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting 860. Grothar:


Please refrain from showing pictures of Lauren Bacall. My heart ain't what it used to be.

Sorry Gro...
My first girlfriend looked a lot like Lauren Bacall.

I don't subscribe to cable, gonna miss Sharknado tonight, but I'll catch it tomorrow on the 'net.

I will have a link to Key Largo posted on my blog before 9pm EDT for those without access to syfy and Sharknado.


Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
Quoting 866. Patrap:
Maybe the ULL and Chantal low get stacked vertically .
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Quoting 873. CaribBoy:
The 18Z GFS *develops* another "quick-moving-bust". I just can't call these pathetic things tropical cyclones! Ernesto, TD7 and Isaac of 2012... and more recently Chantal.... all were busts.
I agree all those systems were a bust for you, but Isaac certainly was not a bust for NOLA.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8018
Quoting 870. Hurricanes101:
so since this is Invest 96L, does that mean this gets a new name if classified?


very good question because it says that this is a completely new system. again, weird!
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...saw a Sharknado off of Nags Head once, it was Taller than the Statue o Liberty if it was a Foot,..laddie

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting 863. SavannahStorm:


Sounds like a great setup for a drinking game. Shots every time something impossible occurs. Some might not make it through the first 30 minutes.

If Chantal Version 1.2 doesn't pan out, I'd love to see a post with a full review tomorrow, Doc!

I may have to end up watching this movie just because of your drinking game idea. :P
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And let me guess Jeff, the sequel will be Dinocane?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16229
Sharknado? Interesting I might tune into that tonight. I love Sci-Fi movies.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8018
Quoting 861. washingtonian115:
That movie is going to be terrible.I'll watch for the laughs.


It was intentionally made to be terrible. I think I'll watch it too for the guffaws.
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I'm very proud of Chantal, I got a feeling she going to prove us wrong and come back. I are her hitting Texas or lousianna. But not that strong.
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Quoting 850. hydrus:
Do not feel like you have been singled out Press. We say the Dakotas continuously...:)


Yeah, it's like saying the Florida keys. We couldn't name each one every time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 18Z GFS *develops* another "quick-moving-bust". I just can't call these pathetic things tropical cyclones! Ernesto, TD7 and Isaac of 2012... and more recently Chantal.... all were busts.

Yes Martinique got 60MPH winds during Chantal... but only during 2 hours...
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6103
Quoting 811. WEATHERFANATIC5:
holy crow already......... why is everyone getting so wild about the remmants on this pathetic chantal.. all it is and all its gonna be is a little wave of some rain,,, we are haveing a 30 minute t storm right now that is a 10 on a scale of 1 to 10 compared to what this chantal wave is gonna be... so stop all the dramatics its a nothing cloudy wave
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Quoting 868. 1900hurricane:
Dr Masters made a post about Sharknado? I think the internet just got broken! :P


Doc is a cool dude!
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so since this is Invest 96L, does that mean this gets a new name if classified?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7475
Navy page says Chantal remnants = Invest 96L !!! weird !
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Dr Masters made a post about Sharknado? I think the internet just got broken! :P
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Quoting 854. JeffMasters:




Hmm, "Sharknado", wow! Asylum films are definitely an unusual breed. I end up laughing uproariously until I have to turn off their movies because they are so ridiculous. From the looks of the trailer, the count of impossible meteorological events is sure to set a new record for a film.

Jeff Masters


Now, Dr Masters, maybe it is based one true events, sort of. I recall reading of historical events where fish, frogs, etc. fell from the skies at times. Why not sharks? (smirking)
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting 854. JeffMasters:




Hmm, "Sharknado", wow! Asylum films are definitely an unusual breed. I end up laughing uproariously until I have to turn off their movies because they are so ridiculous. From the looks of the trailer, the count of impossible meteorological events is sure to set a new record for a film.

Jeff Masters


Hey, I've heard of a fish storm, but this is just ridiculous!
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Quoting 820. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There's a semi-weather-related movie (...I think) premiering on SyFy tonight.

Lol, what even.

Trailer


I thought I was the only one who watched these. Did you ever see Sharktapus?
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Quoting 854. JeffMasters:




Hmm, "Sharknado", wow! Asylum films are definitely an unusual breed. I end up laughing uproariously until I have to turn off their movies because they are so ridiculous. From the looks of the trailer, the count of impossible meteorological events is sure to set a new record for a film.

Jeff Masters


Sounds like a great setup for a drinking game. Shots every time something impossible occurs. Some might not make it through the first 30 minutes.

If Chantal Version 1.2 doesn't pan out, I'd love to see a post with a full review tomorrow, Doc!
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Quoting 838. bigwes6844:


Your map shows little pull northward over the FL-Straits low, and if it drifts a little W, into the E GOM, there is opposite-directional forces to add to the rotation of a tropical cyclone, plus the moisture that could pull into it.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
That movie is going to be terrible.I'll watch for the laughs.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16679
Quoting 842. zampaz:

This is a clip from Key Largo the scene of James Temple (Lionel Barrymore) describing the devastation of the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 which hit southern Florida.
My first video edit and post to youtube for my florida friends in the wunderground.
If I can find it in the public domain and assuming after 65 years it's public domain, I will post a link to download the entire movie on my blog later this evening.



Please refrain from showing pictures of Lauren Bacall. My heart ain't what it used to be.
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Quoting 778. sar2401:

That was the Florida East Coast Railroad, and they and the WPA have been unfairly and untruthfully castigated for not sending a rescue train in a timely manner. Hurricane warnings didn't go up until the afternoon of September 1. A 10 car train was assembled and dispatched within one hour from Homestead, and passing through Upper Matecumbe Key at about 4:00 am on September 2. The train could not travel at faster than 20 mph because the 10 cars were being pushed by locomotive #447, since there was no place to turn the train north of Key West, and the FEC wanted the engineer to be able to watch the track as the train returned north at full speed, since it was assumed that the hurricane would be close to being onshore by the night of September 2. Unknown to the engineer and crew was the fact the hurricane was already coming ashore, and the storm surge, estimated at 18 feet, was about to overtake the train.

Because the train was being backed, there was only one crew member, the rear end brakeman on the last car of the train, which was the first car facing south in the train's configuration. The engineer, fireman, head end brakeman, adn conductor were all riding in the engine. When the storm surge hit, all 10 passenger cars were swept from the rails and overturned or laid on their sides. There were no WPA workers on the train, since the train never made it to Lower Matecumbe Key and Windley Key, where the WPA camps were located. The rear end brakemen was killed, but all the other crew member survived because the #447 miraculously stayed upright and on the tracks. The crew walked though waist deep water and debris for 9 miles in the predawn darkness until they were able to find a working telegraph line, attach a portable key, and let the FEC officials in Florida City know of the magnitude of the disaster. They were the first ones to get the word out, which started a massive rescue effort by the Coast Guard and Navy. The FEC provided ferries to cover the areas that were washed away and built temporary trestles as soon as materials were available.

Sorry for the long-winded story, but my great uncle happened to be the head-end brakeman on that train and told me the story of that day and night several times before he passed away in 1964. The train crew members were heroes, and I'd like them to be remembered as such, instead of villains that abandoned the WPA men to their fate.

Thank you Sar. The older I get the more I appreciate those who went before me. Hearing the history carries lessons learned of triumph and agony forward.
Information and carbon are all we leave behind ;)
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
Quoting 790. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, I know. That's why I used the 1000-1010 mb steering map. If the system becomes deeper than anticipated (<1000mb), there's a chance it takes a jog towards the northeast before curving back towards the coastline. Not sold on this going into Florida, though they should get a glancing blow. GFS and CMC show the system going into South Carolina and North Carolina, respectively, and I see no reason to disagree.



Ok I gotcha. Well, if an organized surface low actually develops, it is reasonable then to say it will move north. However, its not set in stone though because it has been moving northwest since last night, and based on last nights models and previous runs it should have turned more north already about 12 hours ago but it hasn't yet. Granted that doesn't necessarily mean anything, but there is some weak surface vorticity over Central Florida, which in my opinion gives it some possibility of moving a bit more west than indicated.

I'm not saying it has a higher probability because of this, however, being that the remnants is a tropical wave, not a deep system, its very shallow structure will allow the possibility of it to feel the weakness of the weak surface vorticity over Central Florida.
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Quoting 855. Tribucanes:
WEATHERFANATICS is the same yawner of a troll who's been here over the last month under five different names. His banter is always the same. He managed to get quoted three times in five posts. Lets not empty our pockets to this pathetic sort.
Wish I could plus this more than once!
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Quoting 820. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There's a semi-weather-related movie (...I think) premiering on SyFy tonight.

Lol, what even.

Trailer


Who wants to watch that pig Tara Reid ? Not me !!
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WEATHERFANATICS is the same yawner of a troll who's been here over the last month under five different names. His banter is always the same. He managed to get quoted three times in five posts. Lets not empty our pockets to this pathetic sort.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
854. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting 820. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There's a semi-weather-related movie (...I think) premiering on SyFy tonight.

Lol, what even.

Trailer




Hmm, "Sharknado", wow! Asylum films are definitely an unusual breed. I end up laughing uproariously until I have to turn off their movies because they are so ridiculous. From the looks of the trailer, the count of impossible meteorological events is sure to set a new record for a film.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 849. SLU:
18z GFS develops the wave that's about to emerge off Africa.



I wouldn't say "develops," more like a closed circulation. VERY weak.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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