Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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953. Patrap
10:59 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
952. WalkingInTheSun
10:58 PM GMT on July 11, 2013
Quoting 929. RTSplayer:
The Chantal Floater is centered on the remnants, and has not been re-named, so NOAA is treating it as the same system.

Chantal Floater


StormJunkie.com spaghetti plot map shows old Chantal plot linking to the north coast of Cuba now.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
951. bucyouup68
10:58 PM GMT on July 11, 2013
This is what our afternoon thundershowers looked like yesterday. I set the GoPro up to film the approaching Storm. Kind of Pain full to watch, but was hoping to capture a waterspout. This is Part one of three, it's a series. It is in HD if anyone cares to change quality or not.

Link
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 66
Quoting KeyWestbeachcomber:
I meant no disrespect. That train was bustin to leave and they (someone) down the keys..in Key West was not on duty...massive miscommunications.

Understood, but that's simply not true. The telegraph office in Key West closed at midnight but the operator and the road foreman both knew the relief train was coming and made sure the track was clear before they went off duty. If the weather turned dangerous, the Key West operator was instucted to telgraph Islamorada, the only other regular telegraph station beween there and Key West. The Weather Bureau was connected to operator by phone, both at the statio and at his home. Unfortunately, the storm did not affect Key West any worse than the usual tropical lows that affect Key West regularly, so he didn't send any messages except to note falling pressures. By the time the weather got worse in Key West, the lines were already down to the north. Given that it was 1935, and the state of hurricane forecasting then, the railroad did everything they could, If we're looking for a scapegoat, blame the Depression and the WPA honchos that scheduled this work during hurricane season, and the Depression for making men desperate enough for work to take the jobs.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17358
Quoting 945. hydrus:
This is going to be very hard to pin down... Tropical weather is interesting to study...Not to mention we have a cold front moving through Mid TN right now...Weather not typical for this time of year.


A Wild Jet Stream is that focus.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting 932. SunnyDaysFla:
\\Thanks!


It's like having a floater where ever you want it. And with the new enhancements, plus the 30 frame loop, plus the ability to make loops that are 1400 x 1400...Can't beat it.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
96L and ex-Chantal do look an awful lot alike. I wonder what they will threaten next?


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
NRL as it

Atlantic
green ball icon96L.INVEST
green ball icon03L.CHANTAL kml icon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting 931. 1900hurricane:

I doubt it. Forecasts show 96L moving north and into the col between that quasi-stationary upper low and the exiting trough to the north. Perhaps if it can gain enough distance, that upper low may ventilate anything that develops from it.
This is going to be very hard to pin down... Tropical weather is interesting to study...Not to mention we have a cold front moving through Mid TN right now...Weather not typical for this time of year.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22618
NRL site Pat

But I may need to back track as someone else pointed out, it says "NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system."

WTH...lol
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting 918. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Which island are you on again, CaribBoy and when was the last time it got hit hit by a hurricane?


Currently in St Barths, in the Northern Leeward Island... 17.8N 62.5W.

The last hurricane to really affect the area was Earl, 2010. The eye moved less than 30 miles to the N of St. Barths/St Maarten/Anguilla. We had eyewall conditions but limited damages.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
As Ted would say Sharknado most excellent. A can't miss Garth.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting 937. StormJunkie:


They always lag behind renumbering statements and the NRL...But it is 96L.


If it makes the gulf or Florida Straights will people admit I was right on track?

We all know it's the same system, regardless of what they call it...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Chantal Floater
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting 930. Tazmanian:
hi all


i won 655 at black oak today and got a new HP! laptop now am really set for the 2013 hurricane season

Nice,that a casino?
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
What are the odds on BOTH the ejected surface circulation and the mid-level circulation re-developing into separate tropical cyclones?

I think it may have happened before, but I don't know any specific case.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting 929. RTSplayer:
The Chantal Floater is centered on the remnants, and has not been re-named, so NOAA is treating it as the same system.

Chantal Floater


They always lag behind renumbering statements and the NRL...But it is 96L.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting 896. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm thinking 1-2 more storms in July, what about you guys?
I am thinking it is almost a certainty.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22618
Where is 96L found ?

Cant find it
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
the backwards storm put a hurting on st. martin but luis if it was alittle more south would of squashed that island.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
Quoting 896. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm thinking 1-2 more storms in July, what about you guys?


I don't think that far ahead (on tropical weather) -- could hurt my brain, lol. However, the waters off the coast of Texas are the warmest I've seen in years (at least so early in the season, so far), and air temps are hot already, so it could get ugly sooner this year. All depends on a variety of other factors, too, though.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
Quoting 916. StormJunkie:


First link under imagery. When using the IR, make sure to look through the different enhancements. By far my favorite imagery site. Always seems to update faster than the others.
\\Thanks!
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Quoting 883. hydrus:
Maybe the ULL and Chantal low get stacked vertically .

I doubt it. Forecasts show 96L moving north and into the col between that quasi-stationary upper low and the exiting/splitting trough to the north. Perhaps if it can gain enough distance, that upper low may ventilate anything that develops from it.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
hi all


i won 655 at black oak today and got a new HP! laptop now am really set for the 2013 hurricane season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Chantal Floater is centered on the remnants, and has not been re-named, so NOAA is treating it as the same system.

Chantal Floater
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting 804. GrandCaymanMed:
Here's the weather station data for the SE 30 mph wind with area of storms earlier associated with Chantal's remnants

Going by the temp drop associated with the wind, it looks like a gust front from a collapsing tstorm. I saw several arc clouds pushing west out of the area of convection on satellite. Maybe this was one of those.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting 915. flcanes:

Dont even
mention it, we know what happened....


Didn't mean it in that way...More in the "These are not the droids you are looking for" sense. ;)


Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting 900. RTSplayer:


Issac was NOT a bust. Widespread 14 to 20 inches of rain, over-topping levees, and putting power out widespread for 2 days (or more in many cases) isn't a bust.


Sorry, I meant in the Lesser Antilles area.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
XD The Australian news website has a story on "Sharknado"

Link
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Quoting 913. Patrap:


Bob a good met, if he said it, I'd pay attention.


Agreed I always do, I can't stand watching NOLA news except for him. Then its WUG, then WLOX.
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Quoting 873. CaribBoy:
The 18Z GFS *develops* another "quick-moving-bust". I just can't call these pathetic things tropical cyclones! Ernesto, TD7 and Isaac of 2012... and more recently Chantal.... all were busts.

Yes Martinique got 60MPH winds during Chantal... but only during 2 hours...


Personally, living on the GOM, I consider "bust", as you call them, a good thing.
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my original forecast is very close but i did not expect this upper level low to squash it before it heads to south florida miami should get a banner and hang it on biscayne bays blvd welcoming her
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
FNMOC stills has 03L

Atlantic
green ball03L.CHANTAL

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
green ball07W.SOULIK

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting 901. Stormchaser121:

You're trying to tell me Chantal is headed to the GOM? Not in the cards...not for you.


What makes you so sure it won't or couldn't?
The pressure gradients show the Low in the FL Staits appears likely to veer W/NW, doesn't it? Loops show convection popping up around it, too. If it falls that way, drifts slightly West, what is there that will draw it back east? Nothing. Instead, it will be drifting free in never-never-land, with little pressure to move anywhere at all. That means, it will do as it pleases, right? With warmth & moisture, it could just spin & grow in place a bit in the E GOM for awhile. Whether it goes E, W, N, S, etc. from there is up to how other pressures move on it after that, perhaps.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
Quoting 911. CaribBoy:


100% agreed for ISAAC in the Gulf. But the fast trades were no longer a problem when he affected that region.

Those fast trades are a big problem in the CATL for TC to organize into well developed tropical storms or hurricanes. That's why I think MOST storms racing WEST towards the southern islands can't be strong... and that's also why storms impacting the northern islands are usually stronger.
Which island are you on again, CaribBoy and when was the last time it got hit hit by a hurricane?
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Quoting 895. Gearsts:
July 11


Thanks for remind me it's only July 11 lol
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
Quoting 908. SunnyDaysFla:
GHCC?


First link under imagery. When using the IR, make sure to look through the different enhancements. By far my favorite imagery site. Always seems to update faster than the others.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting 899. StormJunkie:
So guessing by the renumber on the NRL, those that said it would be TD4 or Dorian have it correct. Another TD10/12 scenario...lol

Dont even mention it, we know what happened....
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This is the same 850mb vort max that was left over from Chantal.



Meanwhile, the convection south of Cuba is where the LLC went, or would have gone, if it wasn't destroyed.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting 910. Msdrown:


Classic!

On another note Bob Breck is concerned about something spinning up NE GOM south of AL/FL pan end of the weekend. You see this????


Bob a good met, if he said it, I'd pay attention.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
912. Kumo
Quoting 820. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There's a semi-weather-related movie (...I think) premiering on SyFy tonight.

Lol, what even.

Trailer


What's next for a silly movie, Space Chimp Meteor Storm?
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Quoting 882. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I agree all those systems were a bust for you, but Isaac certainly was not a bust for NOLA.


100% agreed for ISAAC in the Gulf. But the fast trades were no longer a problem when he affected that region.

Those fast trades are a big problem in the CATL for TC to organize into well developed tropical storms or hurricanes. That's why I think MOST storms racing WEST towards the southern islands can't be strong... and that's also why storms impacting the northern islands are usually stronger.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
Quoting 880. Patrap:
...saw a Sharknado off of Nags Head once, it was Taller than the Statue o Liberty if it was a Foot,..laddie



Classic!

On another note Bob Breck is concerned about something spinning up NE GOM south of AL/FL pan end of the weekend. You see this????
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The Navy site definitely has it as 96L, so TropicsweatherPR was correct. I am waiting to see it on other sites.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
GHCC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you think Hurricane Isaac, which caused $2 billion dollars in damage, and Hurricane Ernesto which hit the Yucatan as a Category 2 hurricane were "busts" then maybe you ought to zoom out of Google Earth enough so that the places outside of your home country are visible.
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Quoting 856. Chucktown:


Who wants to watch that pig Tara Reid ? Not me !!


EASY CHUCK THOSE FAKE...ER...UMM "flotation devices" may save her during a sharknado! :)
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Quoting 899. StormJunkie:
So guessing by the renumber on the NRL, those that said it would be TD4 or Dorian have it correct. Another TD10/12 scenario...lol



It has happened before, but normally when a remnant re-develops they keep the same name. Ivan was an example I know.

On NHC site, it is calling all of that stuff in and around the 30% orange as the "remnants of Chantal". So I would expect if it did get TS status again it would still be called Chantal.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting 898. zampaz:

Any way you put it:

SyFy Sci-Fi
-or-
SyFy .NE. Sci-Fi

The old days when the "Dune" series was produced are long gone...but a rubber monster in a tornado with a cup of tea is always good for what ails ya ;)
I love the Dinocroc series. Dinocroc vs. Supergator.
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So now that we have a totally new invest, can we please get the GHCC back in rapid scan?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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