Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Renumber is coming soon td likely by 11pm.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Looking at the Bahamas-H, is it forecasted to increase or what? I think it could help agravate the N-Cuba Low or else kick it out away from the old Chantal moisture. If the latter, that could end Chantal's chance of reforming, entirely, IMO. If the former, it could increase the chances of redevelopment, I think. I believe it all will depend on that now..
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Quoting 993. DonnieBwkGA:


I guess. But it is given a 30% probability on the NHC site and it is close to the USA. I was expecting they'd have the track runs.


There are track runs, this was just designated as 96L. give it time the tracks will be up

Check out 03L on here

Link
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Ooooh I can't wait for the sequel!

Barracuda-nado!
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In situations like these I check in with the pro's to see the official information.Seems people were stating that 96L and 03L were separate entities when in reality they weren't.The NHC is giving Chantal a second and hopefully final chance.
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


So, basically, there is a discrepancy in multiple storylines of what actually happened...in a weather disaster...involving the govt...wherein hundreds of people got killed....and nobody would want to look bad or be blamed. If it is about the govt or a big corp. not wanting to face blame on that many deaths, I think it will be hard to find the answers.

As I posted earlier, my great uncle was the head brakeman on the relief train and saw it all first hand. This story has been blown completely out of proportion over the years. It was the great depression, and the WPA was providing work building the highway to Key West. We tend to apply today's standards to what happened 78 years ago. There were men desperate for work, we didn't have good hurricane forecasting, and there was no OSHA.
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Quoting 993. DonnieBwkGA:


I guess. But it is given a 30% probability on the NHC site and it is close to the USA. I was expecting they'd have the track runs.



I didn't realize they were giving it 30. They do run tracks on invests usually don't they?
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west winds in eastern cuba by tomorrow morning td
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4600
By Mary McNamara
July 11, 2013, 10:17 a.m.

Shark-nado!
I just watched a film called Shark-nado.

And suddenly TV
revealed a different side
to me.

Shark-nado!
I sat through two hours of Shark-nado!

I remembered why it is,
cheesy shark movies exist
to please.

Shark-nado
Say it loud and there's people screaming.
Say it soft and it might have some meaning
but I'll never stop saying Shark-nado.

Sharknado, Sharknado, Shark-naaaaaddddoooo.

You just have to love the crazy monster movies that SyFy delivers on a semi-regular basis -- you know what you're getting. "Sharknado," arriving Thursday night, is not the name of some gangified evil-doer or a club where young gals go missing; it is a tornado, several actually, brimming with sharks that hit Los Angeles -- to the death and dreadful amputation of those silly enough to party at the beach or take the 405.

"I hate the 405," says April ("Make It or Break It's" Cassie Scerbo) as she and her friends take to the freeways after hammerhead-filled waves drive them from the nifty Santa Monica Pier bar owned by Fin (get it?), who is played by "Beverly Hills 90210" original Ian Ziering. Fin needs to save his hateful ex-wife ("American Pie's" Miss Tara Reid) and snotty daughter, who would rather argue with him on the doorstep than acknowledge the sharks roiling up from a nearby culvert. The 405 line is there to nail the situation down firmly in reality.

Which it does, actually, because as any Angeleno knows, the surface streets are never any better. In this case, a short afternoon rain, combined with the freaky wave situation, is sending water chockablock with sharks up through the storm drains and over the traffic barriers.

If nothing else, after even the briefest glance at "Sharknado" you'll never complain about your morning commute again.

LINK
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Hurricane Earl east of the Leewards.



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Quoting 990. K8eCane:


Probly same reason they don't run tracks on thunderstorms


I guess. But it is given a 30% probability on the NHC site and it is close to the USA. I was expecting they'd have the track runs.
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Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting 984. ecflweatherfan:
FWIW... Holguin, Cuba (MUHG) has been reporting a westerly component to their winds for a few hours now. Lat 20.47N 76.19W... Currently W winds at 5mph

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUHG.html


Interesting find...Nice work.
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Quoting 983. DonnieBwkGA:
Why doesn't wunderground have model track runs for ex-Chantal like they do with other invests?


Probly same reason they don't run tracks on thunderstorms
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Quoting 985. eyewallblues:
Irv Dvorak would have nailed it.


Like jello to the wall!
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The mid level vort max has a decent MCC style rain shield showing up on Miami radar.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting 979. RTSplayer:



Because 03L is a depression designation, while 96L is an invest designation. If they used the 03L it would imply it was already back to depression status.


thanks but still confusing to me.
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Quoting 981. SavannahStorm:


Even Vernon Dvorak himself wouldn't know how to classify that hot mess.
Irv Dvorak would have nailed it.
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FWIW... Holguin, Cuba (MUHG) has been reporting a westerly component to their winds for a few hours now. Lat 20.47N 76.19W... Currently W winds at 5mph

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUHG.html

Santiago de Cuba, farther SE, has W winds at 15mph... 19.58N 75.51W.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html
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Why doesn't wunderground have model track runs for ex-Chantal like they do with other invests?

Link
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting 970. Patrap:
A confused Dvorak Loop



Even Vernon Dvorak himself wouldn't know how to classify that hot mess.
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Quoting 972. Grothar:


I actually would think it will be another system than Chantal.

Levi did say AL96 would head to the Yucatan and into the gulf.
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Quoting 957. WeatherfanPR:
From Navy Site

NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.

Why they do this ? it's kind of confusing.




Because 03L is a depression designation, while 96L is an invest designation. If they used the 03L it would imply it was already back to depression status.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting 972. Grothar:


I actually would think it will be another system than Chantal.


Cantore just said if she regenerated she would be Chantal because they can trace the wave back to Chantal. If she totally disappeared, then a new name.
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Try the black and white water vapor loop. To me it looks like a ULL finally transferring down.
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Winds here in Grand Cayman are dead calm,but just went to 1.2mph out of SSW
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Quoting 930. Tazmanian:
hi all


i won 655 at black oak today and got a new HP! laptop now am really set for the 2013 hurricane season

Congratulations Taz! Good for you :)
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Lol I forgot Raphael from last year, but was mostly a rain event although the center passed very close.
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Quoting 961. aislinnpaps:


TWC earlier called it Chantal...


I actually would think it will be another system than Chantal.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting Patrap:
NRL as it

Atlantic
green ball icon96L.INVEST
green ball icon03L.CHANTAL kml icon

Can you translate that to English?
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A confused Dvorak Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting 959. DonnieBwkGA:
Never too early to plan your trip. The total solar eclipse of August 21, 2017. Will a hurricane compete for our attention?

I hope the weather is good.. I do not even have to leave the house for that one..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21244
Navy has this on their site:
"NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system"
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Quoting 954. Camille33:
AL, 96, 2013070506, , BEST, 0, 74N, 246W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


you are aware that is the first plot for 95L right?

cuurent info has the system at as if 18Z:

22.4
78.0
30mph
1013mb

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Quoting 950. sar2401:

Understood, but that's simply not true. The telegraph office in Key West closed at midnight but the operator and the road foreman both knew the refief train was coming and made sure the track was clear before they went off duty. If the weather turned dangerous, the Key West operator was instucted to telgraph Islamorada, the only other regular telegraph station beween there and Key West. The Weather Bureau was connected to operator by phone, both at the eeee statio and at home. Unfortunately, the storm did not affect Key West any worse than the usual tropical lows that affect Key West regularly,so he didn't send any messages except to note falling pressures. By the time the weather got worse in Key West, the lines were already down to the north. Given that it was 1935, and the state of hurricane forecasting then, the railroad did everything they could, If we're looking for a scapegoat, blame the Depression and the WPA honchos that scheduled this work during hurricane season, and the Depression for making men desperate enough for work to take the jobs.


So, basically, there is a discrepancy in multiple storylines of what actually happened...in a weather disaster...involving the govt...wherein hundreds of people got killed....and nobody would want to look bad or be blamed. If it is about the govt or a big corp. not wanting to face blame on that many deaths, I think it will be hard to find the answers.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1207
Quoting 935. Patrap:
Where is 96L found ?

Cant find it


Just look where ex-Chantal is and you will find it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Haven't seen an eyewall this large in a while.

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Guess I should stop calling it the GHCC site. Anyone know when they changed it to the Earth Science Office?
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img src="">
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Quoting 909. Grothar:
The Navy site definitely has it as 96L, so TropicsweatherPR was correct. I am waiting to see it on other sites.


TWC earlier called it Chantal...
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Quoting 954. Camille33:
AL, 96, 2013070506, , BEST, 0, 74N, 246W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


.
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Never too early to plan your trip. The total solar eclipse of August 21, 2017. Will a hurricane compete for our attention?

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Before Earl, we had OMAR in 2008.
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From Navy Site

NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.

Why they do this ? it's kind of confusing.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344


Soulik's outer most edges will start moving over land soon. I hope it doesn't do too much damage.
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Nevermind.
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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