Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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1052. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129793
1051. GatorWX
Quoting 1037. Patrap:


Geography. Remember the boc, this isn't that dissimmilar. Wait and watch. Not saying, but I do think something will come of this mess. May take a bit more time than people think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chantal is certainly good at building the suspense of what's going to happen next. Building towards something, which is usually when she decides to lose convection and pretends to die until she comes back the next day. NHC, I'm sure, can't wait till Chantal and the ghost of are finally gone for good. Good learning storm though, even for the pros.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
The chaos from ex-Chantal is understandable. The moisture, wamrth & convection is still there -- the "want to" is there. However, when it lost circulation, it had no place to go & nothing to do -- like bees without a hive. It will seek a new home.

The Florida Straits Low is getting much more vigorous. It was almost to a standstill about a day ago prior to regenerating. It didn't regenerate for no reason. If the H over the Bahamas doesn't kill that low or kick it out, first, I think the most convenient place for the "bees" to make their home...is that low. Of course, it could make something of it's own, but "bees" tend to seek holes & places conducive to building a hive rather than preferring to build on an exposed open tree branch, right?
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
Quoting 1046. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You forgot NSE :D

:)) LMao!
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Could someone please post a map and show exactly where this low is by cuba, I cannot see where it is. Thanks.
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Quoting 1043. stormpetrol:
We're getting really light winds here in Grand Cayman now from all directions every few minutes ENE, SE, S SW, W, WNW N, NNE
You forgot NSE :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Here's the Cuban radar. They have the best view right now, but they only update in 15 minute increments, with about a 20 minute lag time.

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1044. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129793
We're getting really light winds here in Grand Cayman now from all directions every few minutes ENE, SE, S SW, W, WNW N, NNE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1038. ProgressivePulse:


SSD has added a surface trough that is attached to it.


but I thought it took days and days and days to for a ULL to work its way to the surface?

Oh wait it has been out there for days and days and days lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1041. GatorWX
Quoting 1028. ProgressivePulse:
Is that ULL doing what I think it's doing?



I think it's slowly been doing that. This is all a pretty interesting setup especially with how it seems to be possibly playing out.
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Convection is starting to blow up over the low just to the north of Cuba in the bottom right. That could help it work down to the surface, which could potentially put a spanner in the works. The low isn't moving much either, so will have some time to work down to the lower levels if it remains near stationary over the next day or so.
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Quoting 1030. Hurricanes101:


working its way down to the surface


SSD has added a surface trough that is attached to it.
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1037. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129793
Quoting 1028. ProgressivePulse:
Is that ULL doing what I think it's doing?


Your too funny lol. That is not true at all,there is not even a mid level vorticity with it.Ull need days on days on days to work down. 96l may be ri tonight,because when ull is to west of a system is causes diffluence which pulls air away from the system and in turn causes convergence as air rushes to replace the leaving air. Very favorable area for sustained low formation.
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1035. GatorWX
Quoting 1005. Envoirment:
Latest water vapour image



The low just north of Cuba has been pulling/shearing the blob northwards.





That wv loop is disturbing looming at the dynamics settin up this season. Depending on shear, I must iterate again, this season is looking like "one of those seasons". Conditions are too prime in the wcar and se coasts. Steering and moisture content are high and honestly these amateur slightly untrained eyes have noticed an aweful lot of swirls trying to make an attempt at spinning up. The fact cv season is cranking in early July should really have some people a bit on edge. I really can't see conditions deteriorating any.
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Ok, saw the note on the NRL site. Just haven't seen the "official" NHC take on it yet.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting 1011. ILwthrfan:
So has Chantal caught up to the ULL that had been backing west towards Florida all week? If so we have a tropical wave interacting with a ULL. We need a levi update!
Yes we do.My goodness she is a persistant lil devil isn't she? Oh Levi where are you we need a quick tidbit
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Why are they showing this on a Thursday night?

I can't play the SyFy Channel Movie Drinking Game!



Quoting 995. mikatnight:
By Mary McNamara
July 11, 2013, 10:17 a.m.

Shark-nado!
I just watched a film called Shark-nado.

And suddenly TV
revealed a different side
to me.

Shark-nado!
I sat through two hours of Shark-nado!

I remembered why it is,
cheesy shark movies exist
to please.

Shark-nado
Say it loud and there's people screaming.
Say it soft and it might have some meaning
but I'll never stop saying Shark-nado.

Sharknado, Sharknado, Shark-naaaaaddddoooo.

You just have to love the crazy monster movies that SyFy delivers on a semi-regular basis -- you know what you're getting. "Sharknado," arriving Thursday night, is not the name of some gangified evil-doer or a club where young gals go missing; it is a tornado, several actually, brimming with sharks that hit Los Angeles -- to the death and dreadful amputation of those silly enough to party at the beach or take the 405.

"I hate the 405," says April ("Make It or Break It's" Cassie Scerbo) as she and her friends take to the freeways after hammerhead-filled waves drive them from the nifty Santa Monica Pier bar owned by Fin (get it?), who is played by "Beverly Hills 90210" original Ian Ziering. Fin needs to save his hateful ex-wife ("American Pie's" Miss Tara Reid) and snotty daughter, who would rather argue with him on the doorstep than acknowledge the sharks roiling up from a nearby culvert. The 405 line is there to nail the situation down firmly in reality.

Which it does, actually, because as any Angeleno knows, the surface streets are never any better. In this case, a short afternoon rain, combined with the freaky wave situation, is sending water chockablock with sharks up through the storm drains and over the traffic barriers.

If nothing else, after even the briefest glance at "Sharknado" you'll never complain about your morning commute again.

LINK
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Quoting 1027. StormJunkie:


Note from the NHC? Where, I missed that...

This is from the Navy site
NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
Quoting 1028. ProgressivePulse:
Is that ULL doing what I think it's doing?



working its way down to the surface
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting 1026. ecflweatherfan:


Me too. The only real question I have with the obs would be are those large scale winds or outflows from afternoon convection.

Havana has been reporting NNE winds this afternoon. So, could be something there for sure...


QuickSCAT? Oh how I miss the good ol QuickSCAT...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Is that ULL doing what I think it's doing?

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Quoting 1024. washingtonian115:
No.Some people were confusing others by saying that 96L will be Dorian which confused many people including me.Which is why I'm glad the NHC included a note.


Note from the NHC? Where, I missed that...

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting 1004. FIUStormChaser:


I'd like to see a Quick Sat of the area.


Me too. The only real question I have with the obs would be are those large scale winds or outflows from afternoon convection.

Havana has been reporting NNE winds this afternoon. So, could be something there for sure...
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Quoting 1019. DonnieBwkGA:
And the worst of all.....


Jellyfish-nado!


I was thinking ElectricEelnado
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting 1022. StormJunkie:


Don't think anyone was saying they were entirely separate. Think the question was/is...If it were to make TD or TS, would it be TD4/Dorian...or TD3/Chantal.
No.Some people were confusing others by saying that 96L will be Dorian which confused many people including me.Which is why I'm glad the NHC included a note.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
Quoting 1021. islander101010:
now the canadian is calling for a system to make landfall in central texas evac where are you>>??

Ignore it,that is not 96l, it is an ull.
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Quoting 999. washingtonian115:
In situations like these I check in with the pro's to see the official information.Seems people were stating that 96L and 03L were separate entities when in reality they weren't.The NHC is giving Chantal a second and hopefully final chance.


Don't think anyone was saying they were entirely separate. Think the question was/is...If it were to make TD or TS, would it be TD4/Dorian...or TD3/Chantal.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
now the canadian is calling for a system to make landfall in central texas evac where are you>>??
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1020. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129793
And the worst of all.....


Jellyfish-nado!
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Quoting 1013. Hurricanes101:


this has a ways to go before a renumber
Don't pay any attention to him.He has forecast the last two storms to become cat 4's which never happened.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
Since there is a slight abundance of Attorney's these days maybe the weather underground could train one to rule on is it, or isn't it. Maybe Bill Clinton could define this. Now don't jump on Bill you red state folk.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Shear Tendency, mixed bag.



Shear:


Only 5 to 10kts in the Florida Straights, but nearing 20kts on the right side of all the convection.

Assuming the vort max is still moving west or northwest, it will probably have some relatively favorable conditions for a day or so, at least compared to yesterday.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Hey thanks Hurricanes101!
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Quoting 993. DonnieBwkGA:


I guess. But it is given a 30% probability on the NHC site and it is close to the USA. I was expecting they'd have the track runs.


They will. It is a matter of how everyone's servers gather and process the data from NOAA. Many use services like Allison House. Then it becomes a matter of when and how fast they get the data posted to the site. Some of the imagery and model sites are faster than others. NWS GFS site puts out GFS data several frames at a time as it is running, GHCC (Earth Science Office) imagery usually updates fastest. Text model products usually come out before graphical...Etc, Etc, Etc.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting 1003. Camille33:
Renumber is coming soon td likely by 11pm.


this has a ways to go before a renumber
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1012. zampaz
Quoting 1000. DonnieBwkGA:
Ooooh I can't wait for the sequel!

Barracuda-nado!

The sequel to Chantal:
SharkCaneChantal part deux.
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
So has Chantal caught up to the ULL that had been backing west towards Florida all week? If so we have a tropical wave interacting with a ULL. We need a levi update!
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Quoting 1003. Camille33:
Renumber is coming soon td likely by 11pm.


lol you quick
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
1009. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129793
Moray eel-nado!
Sea-urchin-nado!
Horseshoe crab-nado!
Blowfish-nado!
Manta Ray-nado!
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Quoting 998. sar2401:

As I posted earlier, my great uncle was the head brakeman on the relief train and saw it all first hand. This story has been blown completely out of proportion over the years. It was the great depression, and the WPA was providing work building the highway to Key West. We tend to apply today's standards to what happened 78 years ago. There were men desperate for work, we didn't have good hurricane forecasting, and there was no OSHA.


I'm not saying I disbelieve your side of the story. I was saying that if corporate or govt entities got into the mess, that could explain how a story contrary to your uncle's came into being. Think of how politics work.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
1006. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129793
Latest water vapour image



The low just north of Cuba has been pulling/shearing the blob northwards.



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Quoting 984. ecflweatherfan:
FWIW... Holguin, Cuba (MUHG) has been reporting a westerly component to their winds for a few hours now. Lat 20.47N 76.19W... Currently W winds at 5mph

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUHG.html

Santiago de Cuba, farther SE, has W winds at 15mph... 19.58N 75.51W.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html


I'd like to see a Quick Sat of the area.
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Renumber is coming soon td likely by 11pm.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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