Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 1093. Envoirment:


It develops a ULL which is the ENE of the northern section of Chantal

You can see it here




Could the CMC be right?
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Quoting 1095. L1990:
come on people chantal is dead... the storms are just firing because its that time of the day


um, this is the time of day for Dmin, not the time of day for them to be firing
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1101. Patrap
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Quoting 1095. L1990:
come on people chantal is dead... the storms are just firing because its that time of the day
Quoting 1096. Patrap:



That's it Pat
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Quoting 1090. nrtiwlnvragn:
Bigger circle




-- And look, it seems to have 4 eyes!!
It MUST be a SUPERstorm!! Yearghhh!!! (haha)
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
1098. drs2008
Quoting 1085. Tribucanes:
Camille33 talking RI into a named storm again by tonight, I think most if not all here do not agree with that at all. Has gotten very interesting though, maybe they upgrade to 50% by 11PM if more organization continues. Chantal has been frustrating to many but she's certainly entertained. Like many a woman, she's hard to figure out and keeps you guessing; and then does what you least expect.
RI beginning tomorrow am.named storm.Land fall south carolina,monday am.
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Quoting 1092. WalkingInTheSun:
Lol -- this storm is crazy!
"Chantal" is as confused about herself as we are.
Btw, if she breaks out into a broad, massive Cat. 1 hurricane anytime soon,...can we please name her "Superstorm Chantal", just for kicks? - Please?!?
:`p
If she makes it up to a hurricane I will seriously stuff my face with crow.
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1096. Patrap
Quoting 1094. PalmBeachWeather:
How can I believe that my bf is actually interested in the weather when I know he is actually watching Kait Parker on WPTV



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1095. L1990
come on people chantal is dead... the storms are just firing because its that time of the day
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How can I believe that my bf is actually interested in the weather when I know he is actually watching Kait Parker on WPTV
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Quoting 1087. Stormchaser121:

Probably another Ghost storm...i'm not buying into this.


It develops a ULL which is ENE of the northern section of Chantal

You can see it here



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Lol -- this storm is crazy!
"Chantal" is as confused about herself as we are.
Btw, if she breaks out into a broad, somewhat-massive Cat. 1 hurricane anytime soon,...can we please name her "Superstorm Chantal", just for kicks? - Please?!?
:`p
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
All you needed was a Johnny come lately Pat.
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Bigger circle


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An ULL (which obviously has a cold pool of air aloft) sitting over 85 degree water is just asking for trouble. And with low/mid level energy moving beneath it... Wait until Dmax. Could be an interesting night...
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8pm is just continuation of the 2pm update 30%
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Probably another Ghost storm...i'm not buying into this.
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1086. Patrap
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 111552
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 11 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 12/1530Z
D. 28.5N 77.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 13/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0703A CHANTAL
C. 13/0900Z
D. 33.5N 76.5W
E. 13/1130Z TO 13/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A. LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 11/1800Z AND FIX
REQUIREMENT FOR 12/1200Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 11/1120Z.
B. 12/1800Z FIX REQUIREMENT NOW RETASKED AS AN INVEST
MISSION OUTLINED ABOVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF
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Camille33 talking RI into a named storm again by tonight, I think most if not all here do not agree with that at all. Has gotten very interesting though, maybe they upgrade to 50% by 2AM if more organization continues. Chantal has been frustrating to many but she's certainly entertained. Like many a woman, she's hard to figure out and keeps you guessing; and then does what you least expect.
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Quoting 1079. Patrap:
I've been spamming the ULL in the Straits for 3 days, Surface, Radar, and Sat.

I saw it furst'

; )



I remember someone asking you why you keep posting that.
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Will that front sag in the gulf. It's possible something could form on that front.
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I've posted this once before, but this time I have the actual meteorological definition in hand:

"A trough is an elongated region of relatively low atmospheric pressure, often associated with fronts.", accentuating the first sentence.

So... wouldn't that make "trough of low pressure"... low pressure low pressure?

Ugh.
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Chantal's motto of the day "If you can't beat the shear, join it"
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1079. Patrap
I've been spamming the ULL in the Straits for 3 days, Surface, Radar, and Sat.

I saw it furst'

; )

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Quoting 1071. stormpetrol:
Winds are going WSW to WNW and back again in Negril point, Jamaica, what there is left of a true LLC is somewhere between Grand Cayman and Jamaica, just my take.. This is the area I think will develop and head toward the Yucatan in few days, jmo.


Any chance now that it & the No. Cuba Low will unite? There doesn't seem to be much distance between them now, but there is the mountains of Cuba between them.
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Quoting 1068. pottery:

What a thing !!

Welcome to the New & Improved Climate, heheheheh
She ( Chantal) has kept us all in suspense long enough.I think someone said earlier Hurricane Hunters may fly in there tomorrow.
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Quoting 1031. washingtonian115:
This is from the Navy site
NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system
Thanks Washi I saw it.
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Sleepy time for the visible...

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
Quoting 1047. hurricanewatcher61:
Could someone please post a map and show exactly where this low is by cuba, I cannot see where it is. Thanks.


It doesn't have a clear circulation yet. It appears as an open wave. The best I can judge, it would be centered along 23N and 77 or 78W.
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1073. pottery
Post 1069...

Well, whattdaya know ?
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Quoting 1057. pottery:
Errr. Ummm. What's going on ???
Chanty is revived ?
Quoting 1040. Envoirment:


Convection is starting to blow up over the low just to the north of Cuba in the bottom right. That could help it work down to the surface, which could potentially put a spanner in the works. The low isn't moving much either, so will have some time to work down to the lower levels if it remains near stationary over the next day or so.


It has stayed in the same general area for a day or two already.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
Winds are going WSW to WNW and back again in Negril point, Jamaica, what there is left of a true LLC is somewhere between Grand Cayman and Jamaica, just my take.. This is the area I think will develop and head toward the Yucatan in few days, jmo.
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1070. Patrap
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1068. pottery
Quoting mrsalagranny:
We may have a weak pulse.

What a thing !!

Welcome to the New & Improved Climate, heheheheh
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1067. Patrap
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Quoting 1040. Envoirment:


Convection is starting to blow up over the low just to the north of Cuba in the bottom right. That could help it work down to the surface, which could potentially put a spanner in the works. The low isn't moving much either, so will have some time to work down to the lower levels if it remains near stationary over the next day or so.


That ULL not close to the vorticity North of the southeastern Cuba coast. So it still disorganized.
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the orange circle will shift a little to the west and be at 40% at 8pm update
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Quoting 1057. pottery:
Errr. Ummm. What's going on ???
Chanty is revived ?
We may have a weak pulse.
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From the 805 discussion, notice which surface trof they say is stronger

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL COVERS THE SW ATLC AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FORM 26N73W TO 22N76W AND A STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 73W AND THE STRONG SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN76W-79W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting 1047. hurricanewatcher61:
Could someone please post a map and show exactly where this low is by cuba, I cannot see where it is. Thanks.


Look at the water-vapor loop -- easy to see it there.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
This Chantal, ex-Chantal, remnant Chantal..has been a royal pain in the a##.
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1060. FOREX
Quoting 1053. WEATHERFANATIC5:
is florida back getting a ts >?????


nobody knows anything right now. Check back in 12 hours.
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1059. nash36
Whatever this decides to become, it will be a GS/SC event.
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 572
1058. bappit
Sometimes things people say come across in an unintended way that just gives you the shivers.
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1057. pottery
Errr. Ummm. What's going on ???
Chanty is revived ?
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8 pm TWO should be interesting !
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Quoting 1053. WEATHERFANATIC5:
is florida back getting a ts >?????


No, not at the moment, just rain. Stay tuned though.
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Quoting 880. Patrap:
...saw a Sharknado off of Nags Head once, it was Taller than the Statue o Liberty if it was a Foot,..laddie

We're gonna need a bigger boat...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.