Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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1153. Levi32
I'm hanging out with Cody, Bob Acranfrio, JFV (lol) and others in the chat at The Barometer Bob Show. Join us!
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1152. Patrap
Quoting 1145. hurricanes2018:
SEND ME THE LINK TO INVEST 96L


Or maybe just Google NRL Tropical Cyclone Page
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Quoting 1144. CaicosRetiredSailor:
If I look up in the sky, and squint just right, through my glass...

I can see the edge of the Orange Circle I am almost under.



I think it was be hilarious if all of these graphics you see on various maps could be seen in real life

Like when a low pressure area goes over you, look up and see a Red "L" floating in the sky lol
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Quoting 1147. WalkingInTheSun:


I don't think I've heard anyone say anything about it becoming a Cat 5. I playfully made mention of calling it a "superstorm" because of all the hype on a mere Cat 1 up north being called "Superstorm" & with only rather minor storm surges compared to many big GOM hurricanes, winds much less ferocious, too.


yes yes and yes...

pressure misleads you as to pick wind intensity.
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1149. Patrap
Quoting 1145. hurricanes2018:
SEND ME THE LINK TO INVEST 96L


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?AG E=Latest&ACTIVES=13-ATL-03L.CHANTAL,13-EPAC-05E.ER ICK,13-WPAC-07W.SOULIK,13-ATL-96L.INVEST&PHOT=yes& ATCF_BASIN=al&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2013&CURREN T=20130711.2315.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.96LINVEST.25kts- 1013mb-224N-780W.100pc.jpg&ATCF_NAME=al962013&MO=J UL&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2013&YR=13&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NA ME=96L.INVEST&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern _hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/ATL/07W.S OULIK/tpw/microvap&PRODUCT=ir&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/ tc13/ATL/96L.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw&TYPE=ir&PROD=ir& SUB_PROD=geo&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km_bw
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Quoting 1139. nash36:


Right now, it is a wave axis and a MLC off to the E of the axis. No LLC. We'll see if either one can work down to the sfc and close off.


nhc did note in the 805 discussion that the surface trough in the Florida straits was the stronger of the two and the one further east was weakening
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Quoting 1124. washingtonian115:
Sure it could develop.But turn into the next cat 5?.Nahh.


I don't think I've heard anyone say anything about it becoming a Cat 5. I playfully made mention of calling it a "superstorm" because of all the hype on a mere Cat 1 up north being called "Superstorm" & with only rather minor storm surges compared to many big GOM hurricanes, winds much less ferocious, too.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1146. Patrap
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Quoting 1132. Patrap:

Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

Development Team
NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.


2013 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
green ball icon96L.INVEST
green ball icon03L.CHANTAL kml icon
SEND ME THE LINK TO INVEST 96L
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 19998
If I look up in the sky, and squint just right, through my glass...

I can see the edge of the Orange Circle I am almost under.

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1143. zampaz
Quoting 1130. Patrap:
Dats one Huge Shark on Sharknado!

Heard they were discrimiating against smaller species on the set. Asylum claimed the sand sharks, nurse sharks and dwarve sharks had a wild party and didn't show up for the shoot in time and that's why they got canned.
Speaking of canned fish, you realize you can tune a piano but you can't tune a fish.
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Quoting 1134. washingtonian115:
My point was is that the CMC is almost always over intensifying storms.


I think the intensity forecasts may be getting mixed up for the CMC between the Atlantic and WPAC.

The CMC seems to under develop intensity in the WPAC, but over develop intensity in the Atlantic this year. Perhaps it needs a little tweaking is all. :)
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1141. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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1139. nash36
Quoting 1137. JrWeathermanFL:
Good evening everyone! Looks like Chantal wants to come back fer more. Is there a LLCOC? Or any spin at all? I haven't been where I could look today.


Right now, it is a wave axis and a MLC off to the E of the axis. No LLC. We'll see if either one can work down to the sfc and close off.
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 597
1138. Patrap
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Good evening everyone! Looks like Chantal wants to come back fer more. Is there a LLCOC? Or any spin at all? I haven't been where I could look today.
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1136. Patrap
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1135. Patrap
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Quoting 1128. Envoirment:


The CMC isn't predicting a Cat 5 though. It's predicting what looks like a TS.

I think you are getting the CMC mixed up with some posters here. :P
My point was is that the CMC is almost always over intensifying storms.
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Quoting 1125. PalmBeachWeather:
Max.I sold my place in Lake Worth..I now live in West Boynton Beach............I love it.


you did?? well...
I'll find my way around.
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1132. Patrap

Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

Development Team
NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.


2013 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
green ball icon96L.INVEST
green ball icon03L.CHANTAL kml icon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Similar to Chantal...

Emily 11


Tomas 10


TD 7, then Helene 2012


Im taking this into account more often now.
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1130. Patrap
Dats one Huge Shark on Sharknado!
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1129. 7544
hi all just got back my rainbow loops are still blinking

whats this 96L invest talk about

is it still chantel if not will she be born again .?
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Quoting 1124. washingtonian115:
Sure it could develop.But turn into the next cat 5?.Nahh.


The CMC isn't predicting a Cat 5 though. It's predicting what looks like a TS.

I think you are getting the CMC mixed up with some posters here. :P
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Quoting 1108. Envoirment:


Yes, but they are firing up over an ULL which has been slowly moving its way downwards for days. These storms could be just what it needs to work its way down to the surface and become a system in its own right.

Even if nothing develops, heavy rain will likely hit Florida over the next few days given the current set up, which could cause flooding. So it's something to keep an eye on for sure.


I think if it gets bad fast, those in the So. Keys may be compelled to stay in place & ride it out as the storm builds in intensity, possibly - whether for good or bad. I think it could build up so close to them they may not have much time to do anything, if it does something dramatic. How many people pay close enough attention to be ready to do a sudden evac. these days? That's a long highway down there over exposed territory with lots of people that would be piling onto that narrow little roadway all along the keys if things make a sudden turn for the worse.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1126. Patrap
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Quoting 1122. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Everything cool and very wet, this place here is a rain magnet or something...

I hope you are doing better down there, I'll be going to Miami for New Year's.
Expect the knock on your door...lol
Max.I sold my place in Lake Worth..I now live in West Boynton Beach............I love it.
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Quoting 1121. Envoirment:


Possibly. The ULL is moving towards Florida and towards an area where a lot of convection is firing off, and that convection will likely keep going for the next few days. It's something to keep an eye on.




Well, most of its doomcasting has been based on random low pressure systems appearing in its models. This time it has an actual system which it is basing the development on, so I would pay some attention. It did predict the ULL which crossed Florida a few days ago would develop and a lot of you laughed at it, but it does seem like that ULL is currently trying to work its way down as we speak. Although the way it is developing/the current position isn't the same, but it still picked up on it.

Sure it could develop.But turn into the next cat 5?.Nahh.
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
CHANTAL COVERS THE SW ATLC AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FORM 26N73W TO 22N76W AND
A STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 73W AND THE STRONG SURFACE
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
76W-79W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N32W TO
11N33W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS E OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 14N30W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 19998
Quoting 1118. PalmBeachWeather:
Hi ya Max............Nah..Chantal is no problem for me....How are you friend?


Everything cool and very wet, this place here is a rain magnet or something...

I hope you are doing better down there, I'll be going to Miami for New Year's.
Expect the knock on your door...lol
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Quoting 1103. Stormchaser121:

Could the CMC be right?


Possibly. The ULL is moving towards Florida and towards an area where a lot of convection is firing off, and that convection will likely keep going for the next few days. It's something to keep an eye on.


Quoting 1104. washingtonian115:
There goes the CMC forecasting doom.It's been desperate for a GOM storm.


Well, most of its doomcasting has been based on random low pressure systems appearing in its models. This time it has an actual system which it is basing the development on, so I would pay some attention. It did predict the ULL which crossed Florida a few days ago would develop and a lot of you laughed at it, but it does seem like that ULL is currently trying to work its way down as we speak. Although the way it is developing/the current position isn't the same, but it still picked up on it.

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Quoting 1104. washingtonian115:
There goes the CMC forecasting doom.It's been desperate for a GOM storm.

I'm thinking its a ghost storm again
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8pm TWO is out and interestingly enough NHC includes Jamaica and Cayman and Cuba into the circle and still at 30%
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Quoting 1115. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey Palm Beach, long time I don't talk to you... did Chantal, in any way, got you worried?
Hi ya Max............Nah..Chantal is no problem for me....How are you friend?
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Quoting 1095. L1990:
come on people chantal is dead... the storms are just firing because its that time of the day


"Chantal"...IS dead. Her remains are not. That means the ingredients for a storm are all there & perhaps increasing again. That tends to mean a likelihood of something forming, right? Otherwise, Chantal would not have formed to begin with.
Therefore, the mass that WAS "Chantal" bears watching.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Draw a line form Eleuthra to Cayo Roman, Cuba...This seems to be the area where IF a surface low developed, it would be. That ULL is still putting a good bit of shear over the area thhough.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16238
Quoting 1110. PalmBeachWeather:
Pat.I will admit, She is very cool


Hey Palm Beach, long time I don't talk to you... did Chantal, in any way, got you worried?
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The Barometer Bob Show for July 11, 2013.

Bob's guest is Jeff Halverson, Professor at UMBC, Severe Weather Meteorologist and Co-Investigator for the five year Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission. The HS3, is a research program to study the effects of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and the affects it has on tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. This research may help in the intensification forecasts with tropical cyclones.

Tonight 8pm EDST
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1113. Patrap
Quoting 1110. PalmBeachWeather:
Pat.I will admit, She is very cool


Def and a cool view too.

Only she do, dat Voodoo, dat she do, so well.

; )

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1112. hydrus
Quoting 1089. ecflweatherfan:
An ULL (which obviously has a cold pool of air aloft) sitting over 85 degree water is just asking for trouble. And with low/mid level energy moving beneath it... Wait until Dmax. Could be an interesting night...
Me sentiments exactly... If I see anything rotating left this time of year, I watch it...Seen storms form out practically nuthin.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20896
Tonight's theme song

"Glad to Be Back"

by

The Chantels

: )
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Quoting 1106. Patrap:
I think I met her here at the NHC Conference back in April.
Pat.I will admit, She is very cool
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Quoting 1085. Tribucanes:
Camille33 talking RI into a named storm again by tonight, I think most if not all here do not agree with that at all. Has gotten very interesting though, maybe they upgrade to 50% by 11PM if more organization continues. Chantal has been frustrating to many but she's certainly entertained. Like many a woman, she's hard to figure out and keeps you guessing; and then does what you least expect.


Next update is 2:00 a.m.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11098
Quoting 1095. L1990:
come on people chantal is dead... the storms are just firing because its that time of the day


Yes, but they are firing up over (or should I say under? lol) an ULL which has been slowly moving its way downwards for days. These storms could be just what it needs to work its way down to the surface and become a system in its own right.

Even if nothing develops, heavy rain will likely hit Florida over the next few days given the current set up, which could cause flooding. So it's something to keep an eye on for sure.
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1107. Levi32
Good evening.

Blog update:

Thursday evening tropical tidbit video discussion
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1106. Patrap
1100. PalmBeachWeather

I think I met her here at the NHC Conference back in April.
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I'm glad the Doc. brought this up but the prequel for Sharknato is pretty hot. That being supershark now playing on syfy.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
There goes the CMC forecasting doom.It's been desperate for a GOM storm.
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Quoting 1093. Envoirment:


It develops a ULL which is the ENE of the northern section of Chantal

You can see it here




Could the CMC be right?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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