Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 1198. Astrometeor:


NHC's take is if the LLC is lost, then the new invest if it developed would be called Dorian. So, I think it would become Dorian if the area redeveloped. But, I don't think the area will.


yes it better not..

Im calling for Dorian to be a destructive major hurricane... alongside Fernand and Humberto
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Quoting 1198. Astrometeor:


NHC's take is if the LLC is lost, then the new invest if it developed would be called Dorian. So, I think it would become Dorian if the area redeveloped. But, I don't think the area will.
Eh hmmm (Note 96L and 03L are the same system).It's a note on the navy site.So if it were to re-develop it would still be Chantal.
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Quoting 1199. unknowncomic:
Do you know where her center is?


At this point there is no data to support a "center" anywhere. Just a broad area of low pressure which could develop a center somewhere in there.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15716
turrrexxx has a good point. recently these storms have been making comebacks.! it could be something new? maybe a weather change? or is it the new standards by our national hurricane they are declassifing systems even if they look whole . i think the latter.
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Quoting 1185. StormJunkie:
Do you know where her center is?
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Quoting 1192. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


isn't whatever forms out of Chantal left-overs still going to be named Chantal again?


NHC's take is if the LLC is lost, then the new invest if it developed would be called Dorian. So, I think it would become Dorian if the area redeveloped. But, I don't think the area will.
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GFS cannot make up it's mind.It develops another wave behind the current one and on a more southern track.
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Well the ULL is currently stationary, and it is sitting over warm water as it is working its way down.

Vort is inching closer, could see this attain 25kt TD status before moving into Florida and then sliding up the coast as the wave axis that was separated below moves into the Gulf of Mexico.



Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
Quoting 1187. Grothar:
Here is the 18Z on 96L, ex-Chantal, Storm 03, possible Dorian






Looks like it could be threat to Cuba and Florida (as I've been saying for 5 days)



Looks like those BAM models may actually be the 00z initialization point?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15716
Quoting 1190. WalkingInTheSun:


Not sure what you said, but I know I haven't claimed Chantal would become a Cat anything...yet. lol. I have however suggested a storm could form out of that ULL in the straits of Florida, perhaps rather suddenly, and that it could get ugly fast emough that Key Westers might be caught somewhat offguard.

-- It would not be unusual for a storm to form in the Straits of Florida, nor for a storm with lots of resources over warm water to spin up rather quickly. To disregard that possibility is folly, this time of year. It could be a terrible mistake to do so.

Considering the stakes of not considering that possibility, it is prudent & wise to think of the various possibilities and to prepare for whatever might take place. I have been in those keys. It is a long way out, over open narrow roads, exposed to the elements. Therefore, living there requires extra care & caution during hurricane season. If I am wrong about that, I welcome repudiation, but I am no fool in the matter.


I meant about people here freaking out on a 950 mb low for what eventually is a cat 1 hurricane... like Sandy
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1193. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM and Controls are active, click Fronts and MSLP for Steering

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Quoting 1187. Grothar:
Here is the 18Z on 96L, ex-Chantal, Storm 03, possible Dorian






Looks like it could be threat to Cuba and Florida (as I've been saying for 5 days)



isn't whatever forms out of Chantal left-overs still going to be named Chantal again?
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Quoting 1184. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks lovely. :D

This was Chantal in its formative stage in the Central Atlantic:


She looked the best then :/
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Quoting 1150. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes yes and yes...

pressure misleads you as to pick wind intensity.


Not sure what you said, but I know I haven't claimed Chantal would become a Cat anything...yet. lol. I have however suggested a storm could form out of that ULL in the straits of Florida, perhaps rather suddenly, and that it could get ugly fast emough that Key Westers might be caught somewhat offguard.

-- It would not be unusual for a storm to form in the Straits of Florida, nor for a storm with lots of resources over warm water to spin up rather quickly. To disregard that possibility is folly, this time of year. It could be a terrible mistake to do so.

Considering the stakes of not considering that possibility, it is prudent & wise to think of the various possibilities and to prepare for whatever might take place. I have been in those keys. It is a long way out, over open narrow roads, exposed to the elements. Therefore, living there requires extra care & caution during hurricane season. If I am wrong about that, I welcome repudiation, but I am no fool in the matter.

Btw, at what level winds do trashcan lids, etc become airborne -- things that could endanger residents or those along the roads trying to leave in open lanes exposed to the winds of the coasts? At how high a tide would evacuations in the keys start to be hindered or halted? At that point is all it would take to close people in on Key West, right? The ULL in the straits has lingered for some time in no big hurry to leave, so anything that might build there could do the same. Who knows what the limits might be and what threat could be posed. So, there must be caution.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
Quoting 1170. washingtonian115:
I'm gonna get me a drink.Everyone is welcomed to have one.Chantal has given me a headache.


not just Chantal, ever since 2009...those crappy recurring storms
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Quoting 1184. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks lovely. :D

This was Chantal in its formative stage in the Central Atlantic:

Back when she wasn't so hard on the eyes.That wave currently out there looks like her as well in it's early stages.
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1187. Grothar
Here is the 18Z on 96L, ex-Chantal, Storm 03, possible Dorian






Looks like it could be threat to Cuba and Florida (as I've been saying for 5 days)

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1186. hydrus
Quoting 1174. aislinnpaps:


A 'Please' might work better you know.
Yep..And without the caps..:)
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Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15716
Quoting 1170. washingtonian115:
I'm gonna get me a drink.Everyone is welcomed to have one.Chantal has given me a headache.
Looks lovely. :D

This was Chantal in its formative stage in the Central Atlantic:

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1183. Patrap
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Quoting 1166. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
it looks better organized than it was before


I believe shear is a bit lower than before. It'll start to weaken now though, as it is going to make landfall soon and is going to enter a lot of dry air.

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Thanks guys, ill start lurking again. Love all the stuff I learn from here.
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1180. Patrap
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Quoting 1173. 7544:
on the navy site it shows 2 will there be models runs for both i only the model for 03 chantel


AL03 should go away while models are run as 96L. If it redevelopes again into a cyclone it will most likely become AL03 again.
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Wonder when the models on Invest 96L (Chantal) will be out and what circulation center they will use.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
1177. Patrap
A good place to start is here at the wunderground Tropical/Hurricane page

Hurricanes & Tropical Weather

I get 90 % of what I post here, from that page alone.

Real-time Tropical Imagery
Atlantic wind shear (University of Wisconsin CIMSS tropical products)
NOAA RAMMB imagery (great new site in 2007!)
QuikSCAT satellite winds
Microwave Satellite data from the Navy Research Lab
Atlantic hurricane potential (NOAA/Climate Prediction Center)
National Data Buoy Center
Morphed microwave data (University of Wisconsin CIMSS)
Surface wind analysis (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
Saharan air layer (University of Wisconsin CIMSS tropical products)
Computer model forecasts
Basics of hurricane forecast models (Dr. Jeff Masters, wunderground.com, updated 2007)
Description of computer models used for hurricane forecasts (NHC, updated 2007)
Description of computer models used for hurricane forecasts (NOAA/AOML)
GFS model, Atlantic (wunderground)
GFS model, Atlantic (NCEP)
NOGAPS model, Atlantic (Navy)
Canadian (GEM) model
ECMWF model, North America
Multi-model track and intensity guidance (CSU)
Multi-model track and intensity guidance (Dr. Kerry Emanuel, MIT)
Cyclogenesis tracking page (NOAA/NCEP)
CIRA's experimental tropical cyclone formation products
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Here in Fort Lauderdale, we are almost under the "orange DOME of doom", I'm wondering if we have any communication from folks that are under the "DOME"
I've been watching to much CBS Monday night tv. lol
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Quoting 1168. Fishinnfever05:
Where do you get all the different models?

I have been a lurker for a while now and would like to see where these sights are. I am here in mobile and went through the eye of Ivan when it passed over daphne alabama. I have been hooked ever since.


Most of the model, imagery, and other sites can be found from here.

NRL site is listed under imagery..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15716
Quoting 1145. hurricanes2018:
SEND ME THE LINK TO INVEST 96L


A 'Please' might work better you know.
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1173. 7544
on the navy site it shows 2 will there be models runs for both i only the model for 03 chantel
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Levi32 calling show now,go check it out.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1396
I'm gonna get me a drink.Everyone is welcomed to have one.Chantal has given me a headache.
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this pic is about 5x bigger
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Where do you get all the different models?

I have been a lurker for a while now and would like to see where these sights are. I am here in mobile and went through the eye of Ivan when it passed over daphne alabama. I have been hooked ever since.
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it looks better organized than it was before
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1165. Patrap
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Quoting 1087. Stormchaser121:

Probably another Ghost storm...i'm not buying into this.


yeap... same here
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Quoting 641. KeyWestbeachcomber:
You are referring to Mount Trashmore... at least we try not to throw it in the water. We have seen quite a few cat2 and some cat3 Wilma flooded the northern end and blew my roof off. I'm on high ground 7 feet above sea level. The high point Solaris Hill 17 feet above sea level.
You know, there is a difference between FL and the Bahamas... we are low, but not flat. Most local islands get up to between 90 and 120 feet above sea level, and there is usually a ridge of some kind, just a hardened sand dune, really, that is at least 30 ft up. With a limited population, that means people at least potentially have a way to get away from the water... potentially.

Quoting 684. nigel20:
Quoting 652. WalkingInTheSun:

Yeah, an American...speaking with a Jamaican accent was used in a VW ad, during the Superbowl. It was pretty funny though. :)
It had to be... it's not like it's that hard to find a Jamaican actor in the US... it's like hiring a Jamaican actor to take the part of a Bahamian in a movie shot on site in the Bahamas...

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1162. Patrap
Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

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I think the ghost of Chantal is making a curtain-call. The T-storms are now popping up right against that Low in the Florida Straits. If it is a mere unassociated ULL, why would it have that in the same location now?
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Link
Quoting 1145. hurricanes2018:
SEND ME THE LINK TO INVEST 96L
Link
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1159. Patrap
Quoting 1153. Levi32:
I'm hanging out with Cody, Bob Acranfrio, JFV (lol) and others in the chat at The Barometer Bob Show. Join us!


Tell Bob we said hello, and Javier as well.

: )
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If the low forms what would the chances be it comes up by Mobile?
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Quoting 1147. WalkingInTheSun:


I don't think I've heard anyone say anything about it becoming a Cat 5. I playfully made mention of calling it a "superstorm" because of all the hype on a mere Cat 1 up north being called "Superstorm" & with only rather minor storm surges compared to many big GOM hurricanes, winds much less ferocious, too.
Huh? o_0.Whooooa.I was talking about the CMC model over intensifying storms with regards to Environment..
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Quoting 1152. Patrap:


Or maybe just Google NRL Tropical Cyclone Page
Or maybe stop shouting, and use the word 'please'. You know: "Would someone please post URL for 96L's NRL page? Thanks."

That might serve you better. Just saying...
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1155. GatorWX
Quoting 1079. Patrap:
I've been spamming the ULL in the Straits for 3 days, Surface, Radar, and Sat.

I saw it furst'

; )



I've noticed lol. It keeps looking interesting then it dies out. Now it's working with a ton o energy. We shall see, but I think I'm starting to have my doubts, maybe in the king term. There are so many vorticies lol.
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1154. Patrap
Quoting 1148. Hurricanes101:


nhc did note in the 805 discussion that the surface trough in the Florida straits was the stronger of the two and the one further east was likely to dissipate


Dat's why I always read the NHC disco before....
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1153. Levi32
I'm hanging out with Cody, Bob Acranfrio, JFV (lol) and others in the chat at The Barometer Bob Show. Join us!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.