Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 1147. WalkingInTheSun:


I don't think I've heard anyone say anything about it becoming a Cat 5. I playfully made mention of calling it a "superstorm" because of all the hype on a mere Cat 1 up north being called "Superstorm" & with only rather minor storm surges compared to many big GOM hurricanes, winds much less ferocious, too.


Sandy was a mere Cat 1 huh? 6+ foot surges for nearly every NJ barrier island and higher surges to the north? 90mph wind gust recorded up and down the NJ coast? 20 foot waves crashing ashore? Feet of flooding lasting for days? Complete devastation to islands? Lowest pressure north of the outer banks ever recorded?

Have you ever been in the eye of a 940MB hurricane at landfall? I have. Not saying Sandy was the worse storm to ever occur because that's obviously not the case but that was one heck of a storm rivaling all but a certain handful. IF you put Sandy in the gulf the sheer size of her would have caused devastation that would have rivaled some of the big GOM storms.

Follow the action on twitter @StormForce_1
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forget about the nw carib.disturbance. it wont have a chance as the leftovers of chantel move northwest
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BAMs are coastal huggers
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1250. Thrawst
So far, this invest has YET to produce a drop of rain in Nassau... -_-

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I've forced the family into watching sharnado with me.This is going to be so corny I can already smell the fail.
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Quoting 1246. Patrap:


I tried for a half hour,but then my frontal Lobe started to ache..and we bailed.


The Syfy channel movies are really bad, but it's not their fault, its not like they have even a halfway decent budget for these movies.

So unrealistic, my whole head is aching.
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Hey Levi, how do you get onto the Chat on BarometerBob's show?
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1246. Patrap
Quoting 1243. FIUStormChaser:
Anyone else watching Sharknado?


I tried for a half hour,but then my frontal Lobe started to ache..and we bailed.
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Quoting 1239. animalrsq:


Not only that, think about the number of high-rise residences in the Northeast/NYC, compared to the South. How many people couldn't leave their apartments because they were unable to manage the 20+ flight of stairs up and down (without electricity). That was a major issue for the elderly, etc.


Miami,FL

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1244. Patrap
<
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Anyone else watching Sharknado?
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1242. Pallis
Quoting 1219. TylerStanfield:

The area accompanied with 96L/03L is the northern Side, the southern side that split is another area to watch as it retrogrades into the Western Caribbean, Yucatan and Bay of Campeche over the next 5 days. Technically speaking this would be a separate disturbance.

You could be right, but just in case Couldn't Stand The Weather - YouTube
► 4:42► 4:42
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nO23B5C_Mcw
Praying for rain for my Texas bros.
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Well looks like the rain I anticipated earlier has moved to our SE, we're in a clear spot, hopefully we'll get some before the weekend is gone. The heat index here on most days are between 105-110 degrees, feels like one is stifling .
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Quoting 1215. captainmark:
Why can't they use normal names like Jim or Bob or Grothar? I never met anyone name Dorian or Chantal.....


My cousin's name is Chantal. Although, TWC people give the name a funny accent to the -tal part. My family has always pronounced it "chantel", but spelled Chantal.

Quoting 1223. nrtiwlnvragn:


Standard in not circulation, but remnant
3.3


Ok. Thanks.
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Quoting 1220. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well, people in the north as not as experienced and prepared... making the cost of damages double.

Not even sea walls are built, something NYC is already working on... they gotta protect my city


Not only that, think about the number of high-rise residences in the Northeast/NYC, compared to the South. How many people couldn't leave their apartments because they were unable to manage the 20+ flight of stairs up and down (without electricity). That was a major issue for the elderly, etc.
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If something formed from that front...heres your example. Edouard 2008.
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1237. Patrap
23.3N, 79.0W

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Quoting 1225. nrtiwlnvragn:
AL, 96, 2013071200, , BEST, 0, 233N, 790W, 25, 1014, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHANTAL, S,
Just off the north coast of Cuba.
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flood.watch.s.florida?
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1234. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
1233. 7544
Quoting 1229. Patrap:


RECON can be found on the NHC Home page, left Side menu, Aircraft Recon


thanks jajajaj sorry for askin
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1232. Grothar
Quoting 1192. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


isn't whatever forms out of Chantal left-overs still going to be named Chantal again?


If they renumbered it 96L and it strengthened, I believe they would give it a new name. However, if the original circulation reformed you could have Chantal and Dorian.

Last night I wrote that I do not write off a storm until it is 50 from the British Isles. It would seem at this time, that whatever is there would most likely more almost due North.

Then it would be a threat to the Bahamas and Florida. Although I do not see any indication of any major strengthening yet.
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Quoting 1217. 7544:
are the models using the part east of fla as the plot or the excahantel to the south im gettin confused if its the east of fl now it dosent have time to form right tia


They would be using the "center" of Chantal that is just off the coast of Andros, an island in the Bahamas. There are two parts to Chantal, there is the main "guts" that are in the Bahamas, and then there is a blob of convection to the south of Cuba. The northern part, the one that the models are using, has been drifting west recently, even though the models want to take it north into Georgia/SC. The Cuban part wants to go west towards the Yucatan.
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Quoting 1095. L1990:
come on people chantal is dead... the storms are just firing because its that time of the day
From personal experience, we don't normally get rain around 8:30 p.m. in the Bahamas, esp. in the summer... 2 - 6 p.m. or a.m.? ... yeah.
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1229. Patrap
Quoting 1224. 7544:


do u know what time est tia


RECON can be found on the NHC Home page, left Side menu, Aircraft Recon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Quoting 1210. Tropicsweatherpr:
wash, At very long range, 18z GFS has a low SW of CV Islands but we know long range will change many times.

The 27th of July?.I'll take my chances of winning the power ball :).
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1227. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Quoting 1212. FOREX:


Several days ago Chantal was supposed to make a wicked left turn into northern florida. is that still a possibility?
Anythings possible. Chantal is quite the perpexing gal. Noone wants to forecast it at this point until we have a closed LLC. Check back.
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AL, 96, 2013071200, , BEST, 0, 233N, 790W, 25, 1014, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHANTAL, S,
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1224. 7544
Quoting 1218. JrWeathermanFL:
HH fly out tomorrow so we'll get a better idea of the structure of 96L.


do u know what time est tia
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Quoting 1216. Astrometeor:




I'm still not sure, since as Levi mentioned in his blog update, there are two areas of interest. The NHC might not differentiate it between the two, so I guess I'm generally confused.

I wasn't going off the renumber, I was just going off the standard of if the storm maintains a circulation, then the storm maintains its name. Then again, the NHC hasn't exactly stuck to its own definitions in recent years.


Standard in not circulation, but remnant
3.3
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Quoting 1215. captainmark:
Why can't they use normal names like Jim or Bob or Grothar? I never met anyone name Dorian or Chantal.....


I have met both
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1221. Patrap
Quoting 1212. FOREX:


Several days ago Chantal was supposed to make a wicked left turn into northern florida. is that still a possibility?


One will have to see the Guidance for whatever shakes out down in the Straits or Bahamas.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Quoting 1213. WalkingInTheSun:


Yeah, I hated the massive hype over Sandy!!
People in the south have suffered lots of horrible hurricanes over the years. Then, they get one Cat 1 up north, and because it is not as common, they get freaked out up there, call it a superstorm and all the media stars & politicians come out to hype & throw money all over. Would be nice to see more of that when the southern areas get hit, even when its bigger than a Cat 1. lol.


well, people in the north as not as experienced and prepared... making the cost of damages double.

Not even sea walls are built, something NYC is already working on... they gotta protect my city
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Quoting 1205. nrtiwlnvragn:


Nope, it was a reverse renumber, so it is the same system.

invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren 11-Jul-2013 20:43 4.9K

The area accompanied with 96L/03L is the northern Side, the southern side that split is another area to watch as it retrogrades into the Western Caribbean, Yucatan and Bay of Campeche over the next 5 days. Technically speaking this would be a separate disturbance.
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HH fly out tomorrow so we'll get a better idea of the structure of 96L.
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1217. 7544
are the models using the part east of fla as the plot or the excahantel to the south im gettin confused if its the east of fl now it dosent have time to form right tia
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Quoting 1205. nrtiwlnvragn:


Nope, it was a reverse renumber, so it is the same system.

invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren 11-Jul-2013 20:43 4.9K


Quoting 1202. washingtonian115:
Eh hmmm (Note 96L and 03L are the same system).It's a note on the navy site.So if it were to re-develop it would still be Chantal.


I'm still not sure, since as Levi mentioned in his blog update, there are two areas of interest. The NHC might not differentiate it between the two, so I guess I'm generally confused.

I wasn't going off the renumber, I was just going off the standard of if the storm maintains a circulation, then the storm maintains its name. Then again, the NHC hasn't exactly stuck to its own definitions in recent years.
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Quoting 1203. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes it better not..

Im calling for Dorian to be a destructive major hurricane... alongside Fernand and Humberto
Why can't they use normal names like Jim or Bob or Grothar? I never met anyone name Dorian or Chantal.....
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the ull is dying out as the leftover energy from the tropical storm takes its place
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Quoting 1194. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I meant about people here freaking out on a 950 mb low for what eventually is a cat 1 hurricane... like Sandy


Yeah, I hated the massive hype over Sandy!!
People in the south have suffered lots of horrible hurricanes over the years. Then, they get one Cat 1 up north, and because it is not as common, they get freaked out up there, call it a superstorm and all the media stars & politicians come out to hype & throw money all over. Would be nice to see more of that when the southern areas get hit, even when its bigger than a Cat 1. lol.
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1212. FOREX
Quoting 1180. Patrap:


Several days ago Chantal was supposed to make a wicked left turn into northern florida. is that still a possibility?
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1211. Patrap
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wash, At very long range, 18z GFS has a low SW of CV Islands but we know long range will change many times.

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The East Caribbean, the area where storms are almost beaten to death now was the seeding ground for this

Dean 2007


and this

Felix 2007


Btw... Dorian is a fresh new name, replacing devastating Dean...


Hurricane Dean
Winds 175 mph
Pressure 905 mb..

when would that happen again? ^
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Quoting 1203. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes it better not..

Im calling for Dorian to be a destructive major hurricane... alongside Fernand and Humberto
Could that be this?




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Quoting 1197. washingtonian115:
GFS cannot make up it's mind.It develops another wave behind the current one and on a more southern track.


The southern wave would have a better chance at developing then the northern one, because of where the trade winds are positioned. That's why Chantal looked so good as a wave, the ITCZ boost + trade winds staying to the north allowed the system to develop. But once Chantal moved to the north, the trade winds ripped her to shreds.
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1206. 7544
maybe that ull is the real 96L that we beeen watching all week did it fiannally work down hmmm



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Quoting 1198. Astrometeor:


NHC's take is if the LLC is lost, then the new invest if it developed would be called Dorian. So, I think it would become Dorian if the area redeveloped. But, I don't think the area will.


Nope, it was a reverse renumber, so it is the same system.

invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren 11-Jul-2013 20:43 4.9K
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1204. Patrap
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Quoting 1198. Astrometeor:


NHC's take is if the LLC is lost, then the new invest if it developed would be called Dorian. So, I think it would become Dorian if the area redeveloped. But, I don't think the area will.


yes it better not..

Im calling for Dorian to be a destructive major hurricane... alongside Fernand and Humberto
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.