Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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1303. Patrap
I'm jus sitting here watching the wheels go round and round,..


Miami
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting 1298. Grothar:


Just upgrade, my laptop is pretty powerful.




ok window 8 is a lot better when it comes pre install not upgradeing
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Quoting 1250. Thrawst:
So far, this invest has YET to produce a drop of rain in Nassau... -_-

Was just getting ready to post, nothing happening here.

Frankly, though, I never expected any rain before tomorrow anyway...
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1300. K8eCane
Quoting 1295. Grothar:


Sharktapus was a much better film with great acting and dialogue.

P.S. I was being sarcastic and serious.



That almost sounds like a dirty word
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1299. Grothar
Quoting 1297. avthunder:
Was that you? I thought it was sweetie pie. :)


LOL.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
1298. Grothar
Quoting 1292. Tazmanian:




ok well do are you planing on buying a laptop with window 8?


Just upgrade, my laptop is pretty powerful.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting 1257. Grothar:
Gee, somebody mentioning over and over about 6 days ago that this going through the Windward Passage and moving North. I can't remember who it was.


Was that you? I thought it was sweetie pie. :)
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watching.warren.haynes.on.palladia
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1295. Grothar
Quoting 1286. FIUStormChaser:


I can't tell if your being serious or your being sarcastic. I'm confused.

By the way, Sharknado is so bad, they are showing footage of big waves and crashing into buildings and the pier and then they show an Arial of the beach with light waves.


Sharktapus was a much better film with great acting and dialogue.

P.S. I was being sarcastic and serious.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting 1279. Grothar:
It looks like the remnants of Chantal are close to threatening South Florida.



Sort of looks like a shark over Georgia.
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Quoting 1277. ProgressivePulse:


Gotta question that reading from Andros can't find it in any obs, bouy or ship reports.
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Quoting 1282. Grothar:


Congratulations. But I bet I was the "first" one you told about it. Let me know how Windows 8 is.




ok well do are you planing on buying a laptop with window 8?
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1290. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting 1281. FIUStormChaser:


Well as it is stalled, it does appear to have a decent amount of time over water. According to the shear tendency map, shear appears to be on the decrease. If you could post the current shear map, I'm sure shear is 5-10kts over the position of 96L




Click to enlarge.
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1288. Patrap
Miami
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
1287. Grothar
Quoting 1276. 7544:
ok there iot as pat posted the radar the area to watch is sse of miami fl theres even a spin there ?




Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting 1279. Grothar:
It looks like the remnants of Chantal are close to threatening South Florida.



I can't tell if your being serious or your being sarcastic. I'm confused.

By the way, Sharknado is so bad, they are showing footage of big waves and crashing into buildings and the pier and then they show an Arial of the beach with light waves.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 761
Quoting 1281. FIUStormChaser:


Well as it is stalled, it does appear to have a decent amount of time over water. According to the shear tendency map, shear appears to be on the decrease. If you could post the current shear map, I'm sure shear is 5-10kts over the position of 96L


Alright,
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Quoting 1278. Tazmanian:




i saw it 1st




oh i went too black oak today and won $655 with that i got a new laptop its a HP with window 8

You seen nothing first I saw it first.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Something humorous I found on DeviantART

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1282. Grothar
Quoting 1278. Tazmanian:




i saw it 1st




oh i went too black oak today and won $655 with that i got a new laptop its a HP with window 8


Congratulations. But I bet I was the "first" one you told about it. Let me know how Windows 8 is.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting 1270. FunnelVortex:


That's where the Gulf Stream comes in. Although the shear will have do decrease before then.

We also are having an ULL coming from the east which will enhance Chantal's remnants as well over that area.


Well as it is stalled, it does appear to have a decent amount of time over water. According to the shear tendency map, shear appears to be on the decrease. If you could post the current shear map, I'm sure shear is 5-10kts over the position of 96L
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 761
1280. 7544
Quoting 1278. Tazmanian:




i saw it 1st




oh i went too black oak today and won $655 with that i got a new laptop its a HP with window 8


congrads
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1279. Grothar
It looks like the remnants of Chantal are close to threatening South Florida.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting 1257. Grothar:
Gee, somebody mentioning over and over about 6 days ago that this going through the Windward Passage and moving North. I can't remember who it was.






i saw it 1st




oh i went too black oak today and won $655 with that i got a new laptop its a HP with window 8
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1276. 7544
ok there iot as pat posted the radar the area to watch is sse of miami fl theres even a spin there ?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1271. OceanMoan:



I am, hilariously bad.


How bad is it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Sharknado movie features a hurricane off the southern California coast caused by global warming.

The hurricane is rotating clockwise. The movie doesn't say if that is caused by global warming though.
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Quoting 1260. animalrsq:


I didn't mean to imply that there are no high-rise buildings in Florida and other states. But not in the concentration there is the NE, especially NYC. And I have lived both in the NE and now FL.


Miami actually has the third largest skyline in the United States, and as the South American tourists have been visiting they are also creating demand for condo, there are 150 skyscrapers planned for Miami-Dade County. But yes i understand, they would not be as prepared as residents of the coastal south east, because we go through such evacuation and preparations practically every year.


Quoting 1259. ecflweatherfan:


yeah, I was looking at that. In fact, when one looks at the long range radar loop out of Key West, there is a small cell with deep red that appears to be building right near that center. It is almost nearly stationary or moving slowly SSE, while stuff to the west is moving S/SW, and on the east the stuff is moving N/NW.


Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 761
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Quoting 1243. FIUStormChaser:
Anyone else watching Sharknado?



I am, hilariously bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1265. FIUStormChaser:


It's been stationary all day over that gulf stream water, as Patrap said yesterday it just needs a spot to release its mojo.

It's over some hot water:





That's where the Gulf Stream comes in. Although the shear will have do decrease before then.

We also are having an ULL coming from the east which will enhance Chantal's remnants as well over that area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1269. Patrap
Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
1268. zampaz
Quoting 1257. Grothar:
Gee, somebody mentioning over and over about 6 days ago that this going through the Windward Passage and moving North. I can't remember who is was.



It was you...or Taz, always hard to remember who was first :)
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
1267. smuldy
Quoting 1260. animalrsq:


I didn't mean to imply that there are no high-rise buildings in Florida and other states. But not in the concentration there is the NE, especially NYC. And I have lived both in the NE and now FL.
More in Miami than Boston or anywhere other than NYC. Miami is pretty much just like LA in terms of layout
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Quoting 1257. Grothar:
Gee, somebody mentioning over and over about 6 days ago that this going through the Windward Passage and moving North. I can't remember who is was.




Memory....

I had one once...

; )
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Quoting 1251. nrtiwlnvragn:




BAMs are coastal huggers


It's been stationary all day over that gulf stream water, as Patrap said yesterday it just needs a spot to release its mojo.

It's over some hot water:



Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 761
1264. 7544
Quoting 1256. StormJunkie:


Yes they are. Wondering how accurate any initialization can be right now though?



wait is that big mes heading west to so fl or staying to the east thats alot of rain !!
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1263. Patrap
The Best radial convection is occurring in that area as well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting 1256. StormJunkie:


Yes they are. Wondering how accurate any initialization can be right now though?



About as accurate as the initialization for any invest, since by definition an invest does not have a well defined center of circulation and organized deep convection.
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1261. zampaz
//edits//
I've created a blog for entry for "Key Largo (1948)-The Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935
//clip removed from youtube.//
There is a youtube clip of Lionel Barrymore describing the great hurricane in the epic film "Key Largo" which also starred Humphrey Bogart and Lauren Bacall.
//movie-6minute segment link removed-not sure even posted//
//obe - copied posts by hand to blog//
hope those who shared about the history on Dr.
Master's blog will copy their comments to my blog so people have a historical perspective of the film.
//hmmmn perspectives not allowed i guess//
There is a lot to discuss about the history, and about the film itself.
//sadly, not anymore.//
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/zampaz/comment.h tml?entrynum=3
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
Quoting 1245. FIUStormChaser:


Miami,FL



I didn't mean to imply that there are no high-rise buildings in Florida and other states. But not in the concentration there is the NE, especially NYC. And I have lived both in the NE and now FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1237. Patrap:
23.3N, 79.0W



yeah, I was looking at that. In fact, when one looks at the long range radar loop out of Key West, there is a small cell with deep red that appears to be building right near that center. It is almost nearly stationary or moving slowly SSE, while stuff to the west is moving S/SW, and on the east the stuff is moving N/NW.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
I really thought Chantal was going to be our first photogenic storm.

Gonna have to wait.
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1257. Grothar
Gee, somebody mentioning over and over about 6 days ago that this going through the Windward Passage and moving North. I can't remember who it was.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting 1251. nrtiwlnvragn:




BAMs are coastal huggers


Yes they are. Wondering how accurate any initialization can be right now though?

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16543
1255. drs2008
Quoting 1246. Patrap:


I tried for a half hour,but then my frontal Lobe started to ache..and we bailed.
frontal lobe gone,too
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1254. Patrap
The Low in the Straits is trying to gather some moisture into the vort.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting 1147. WalkingInTheSun:


I don't think I've heard anyone say anything about it becoming a Cat 5. I playfully made mention of calling it a "superstorm" because of all the hype on a mere Cat 1 up north being called "Superstorm" & with only rather minor storm surges compared to many big GOM hurricanes, winds much less ferocious, too.


Sandy was a mere Cat 1 huh? 6+ foot surges for nearly every NJ barrier island and higher surges to the north? 90mph wind gust recorded up and down the NJ coast? 20 foot waves crashing ashore? Feet of flooding lasting for days? Complete devastation to islands? Lowest pressure north of the outer banks ever recorded?

Have you ever been in the eye of a 940MB hurricane at landfall? I have. Not saying Sandy was the worse storm to ever occur because that's obviously not the case but that was one heck of a storm rivaling all but a certain handful. IF you put Sandy in the gulf the sheer size of her would have caused devastation that would have rivaled some of the big GOM storms.

Follow the action on twitter @StormForce_1
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.