Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 1347. RTSplayer:
Here's the real problem in terms of redevelopment.

500mb vorticity



800mb vorticity



They are displaced by about a full diameter of one another, so they are working against one another.


THERE IS
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FORM 26N73W TO 22N76W
AND
A STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 73W AND THE STRONG SURFACE
TROUGH.
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1352. Patrap
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lot more convection than last night
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Quoting 1345. DonnieBwkGA:


They do. In fact Cuba gives us full access to their airspace over the sea and has never refused access on the condition that we share reconnaissance data with them in real time.


I knew they allowed us airspace, but I didn't know we were giving one another raw data feeds.

Thanks.
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1348. Grothar
Quoting 1327. ProgressivePulse:
So being 96L, this means that if the remnants were to develop into a named storm it would be Dorian? You can't tell me that they were able to track the center of Chantal, lol. I don't care who you are, your lying if you said you did, lol.



Chantal deed what? Split in two?

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
Here's the real problem in terms of redevelopment.

500mb vorticity



800mb vorticity



They are displaced by about a full diameter of one another, so they are working against one another.
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Quoting 1344. Bluestorm5:
When do we ever have decent meteorology movie??? Seem like every single disaster movies is overkill. I want to see a great movie with the weather behaving the correct way. I didn't even watch Sharknado, but I knew it's awful movie judging the title.


Maximum Velocity is the worst.
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Quoting 1329. RTSplayer:
Do the U.S. and Cuban Governments share raw data on Meteorology, or do we just look at one another's graphical products on the internet and try to guess what the situation is?


They do. In fact Cuba gives us full access to their airspace over the sea and has never refused access on the condition that we share reconnaissance data with them in real time.
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When do we ever have decent meteorology movie??? Seem like every single disaster movies is overkill. I want to see a great movie with the weather behaving the correct way. I didn't even watch Sharknado, but I knew it's awful movie judging the title.
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If the NHC does things the same way it will clearly be Chantal if it regenerates.
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I do not see anything that is going to steer this system out of here for a couple days. Floridians stand a slight but never the less chance for a big blow up and some soggy windy weather. I would use this opportunity to check your supplies for the season.
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1341. Grothar
Quoting 1329. RTSplayer:
Do the U.S. and Cuban Governments share raw data on Meteorology, or do we just look at one another's graphical products on the internet and try to guess what the situation is?


They are often quite cooperative.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
Quoting 1335. Grothar:


Sometimes bloggers think Geoff and I really go at each other. I wouldn't do it if he weren't one of my best blogging friends. You ever see the shots he gives me?

I once asked, "May I ask a stupid question?" His reply was, "Better than anyone I know?"


When a friend asked me that I replied "more often than anyone I know"
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1339. 7544
hes my take

excantel is still south

and new invest 96L is east of fl sse of miami fl

just my take thats how ill follow the 2
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1338. Grothar
Quoting 1334. hydrus:
If it stalled, could get a bit nasty for Yaallll..:)


Just as long as it goes over Geoff's house and not ours.
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Quoting 1327. ProgressivePulse:
So being 96L, this means that if the remnants were to develop into a named storm it would be Dorian? You can't tell me that they were able to track the center of Chantal, lol. I don't care who you are, your lying if you said you did, lol.


Here is the report for Hurricane Dennis in 1981. Dennis was a tropical storm out in the Atlantic, weakened to a wave while in the Caribbean and then gre back into a tropical storm

Page 1.




preliminary best track


Note how back then they made the knots adjust into round mph values.
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Quoting 1333. forecaster1:
Good news about Chantal is....If she turns into twins the areas in question that maybe affected and the path they take It will be the first time in a decade that everyone here was right about the forecast ! :)


I laughed, so you get a plus from me.
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1335. Grothar
Quoting 1317. hydrus:
grouch


Sometimes bloggers think Geoff and I really go at each other. I wouldn't do it if he weren't one of my best blogging friends. You ever see the shots he gives me?

I once asked, "May I ask a stupid question?" His reply was, "Better than anyone I know?"
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
1334. hydrus
Quoting 1279. Grothar:
It looks like the remnants of Chantal are close to threatening South Florida.

If it stalled, could get a bit nasty for Yaallll..:)
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Good news about Chantal is....If she turns into twins the areas in question that maybe affected and the path they take It will be the first time in a decade that everyone here was right about the forecast ! :)
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Quoting 1323. ProgressivePulse:


It would be nice if there were some buoy data in the area. The few land stations I checked in Cuba in the area hadn't updated for 144+ days.


Holquin, Cuba had either 1015 or 1016 mb pressure earlier this evening, Santiago de Cuba had roughly the same. Camaguey and Havana had 1016 to 1017, I think. These were as of 6:55pm ET.
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Quoting 1327. ProgressivePulse:
So being 96L, this means that if the remnants were to develop into a named storm it would be Dorian? You can't tell me that they were able to track the center of Chantal, lol. I don't care who you are, your lying if you said you did, lol.


I really think that this has a shot to develop down there. With the surface trough in the Bahamas weakening, the area to focus on is near the Straits. To me that changes the focus of where this could affect
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1330. Thrawst
Quoting 1277. ProgressivePulse:


Do I see a 1007.5mb reading in Nassau? Probably bogus!
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Do the U.S. and Cuban Governments share raw data on Meteorology, or do we just look at one another's graphical products on the internet and try to guess what the situation is?
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I looked at another site and the lowest sea-level adjusted pressure in the Bahamas was 29.96" and in Cuba 29.95"
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So being 96L, this means that if the remnants were to develop into a named storm it would be Dorian? You can't tell me that they were able to track the center of Chantal, lol. I don't care who you are, your lying if you said you did, lol.
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1326. Patrap


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The wave in the atlantic (bottom right) is interesting. It has a line of thunderstorms ahead of it which seem to be preparing the wave's path by making it more moist. If it can get some deep convection occuring in the center, it should be able to use the current moisture around it as a shield from the dry air, while it develops. It's moving quite slowly too.
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Quoting 1318. congaline:
How far off the coast of Fl was Andrew when he spinned up to a Cat 4?


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Quoting 1313. ecflweatherfan:


I see those pressures on there... Some of those 1006, 1002, 1001 mb pressures are suspicious. I bet that is the station pressure, not MSLP. They just don't seem to match nearby sea level pressure obs...


It would be nice if there were some buoy data in the area. The few land stations I checked in Cuba in the area hadn't updated for 144+ days.
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1322. Patrap
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1321. Patrap
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Quoting 1301. BahaHurican:
Was just getting ready to post, nothing happening here.

Frankly, though, I never expected any rain before tomorrow anyway...



Some showers on the eastern end of the island between 6:30 and 7:30
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notting on here no invest 96L yet!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 35572
How far off the coast of Fl was Andrew when he spinned up to a Cat 4?
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1317. hydrus
Quoting 1308. Grothar:


We've noticed. By the time you load an image, it's already 5 hours old.
grouch
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Quoting 1293. nrtiwlnvragn:


Gotta question that reading from Andros can't find it in any obs, bouy or ship reports.
Reading is likely from NAS / MYNN, the Nassau international airport...
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1315. Patrap
NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.


2013 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
green ball icon96L.INVEST kml icon
green ball icon03L.CHANTAL
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How bout a warm bath Chantal?



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Quoting 1277. ProgressivePulse:


I see those pressures on there... Some of those 1006, 1002, 1001 mb pressures are suspicious. I bet that is the station pressure, not MSLP. They just don't seem to match nearby sea level pressure obs...
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Is anyone playing the SyFy Channel movie drinking game?
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Quoting 1295. Grothar:


Sharktapus was a much better film with great acting and dialogue.

P.S. I was being sarcastic and serious.


Now there are Sharks swimming in the Streets of LA, along with footage taken from different cyclones and flooding......

Both? Lol well i wouldn't be too sarcastic, I think you might have some Sharks swimming in your street come tomorrow.
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Quoting 1293. nrtiwlnvragn:


Gotta question that reading from Andros can't find it in any obs, bouy or ship reports.


That looks like it was from Nassau not Andros. Current reading at the Airport shows that particular report to be likely an error.

Current Weather Conditions:
Nassau Airport, Bahamas, The

Pressure (altimeter) 29.99 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
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Good evening, weathergeeks! :)

Looks like our system is still hanging on. I've not had time to look at anything other than see that the Navy site has links up for both Chantal and 96. Is something wrong with the imagery? I thought 96L would be the MDR system trying to get oing.

I'll take me another day to catch back up, road warrier today in the rain! And so, what is the quick 411 for for xChantal?
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1308. Grothar
Quoting 1307. GeoffreyWPB:


On a five-year-old pc. That's why I am so slow in posting.


We've noticed. By the time you load an image, it's already 5 hours old.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
Quoting 1298. Grothar:


Just upgrade, my laptop is pretty powerful.


On a five-year-old pc. That's why I am so slow in posting.
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Quoting 1289. Envoirment:




Click to enlarge.


Thanks for posting it Envoirment, it validates my claim that shear is 5-10kts.
Quoting 1288. Patrap:
Miami
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI



5-10kts of Shear, Gulf Stream, moist environment. The three factors i do not want to hear.
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Quoting 1107. Levi32:
Good evening.

Blog update:

Thursday evening tropical tidbit video discussion


Excellent update.

Thanks Levi!!!
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Dont forget about the southern flank moving to the NW Carib. This will have a chance to develop once it gets over there.
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1303. Patrap
I'm jus sitting here watching the wheels go round and round,..


Miami
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.