Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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Quoting 1374. geepy86:

around here we call them afternoon storms

Its not afternoon, and there will be much more to come as the messy blob of a storm comes over the state. There is a different feel to the storms that move in from the coast during the day and the gusting blustery feel of a rain band from a tropical entity.
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1402. hydrus
Quoting 1385. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


lots can happen in 6 hrs lots

things sometimes can come up all of a sudden with little to no warning

sometimes
Yep. I know..The No Name Storm in 82 caught lots of folks by surprise...It wuz nastay..
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Quoting 1365. hydrus:
Yes...And he will weather it out watching -Sharknado ! The Series !...man life is good in da hurrican belt..:)
You should watch Whalacane. Kind of an indie film, but very hip and irreverent.
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Quoting 1356. Grothar:
Latest models on 96L are out.




Well, poop. The orange line, the lime green line and the blue line all appear to go over my house! Stay small and disorganized 96L or revived Chantal and just give us some rain and a little wind. I REALLY don't want another 2004 type season.
Had seriously nasty thunder storm here this afternoon. Hope not a portent of things to come.
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Quoting 1368. mikatnight:


This is the exact reason why scientists have trouble communicating to the public. No offense intended, but y'all sound just like scientists! The reason Hollywood won't make a real movie on weather is...no one would watch it (except us).
Unless you add in another theme to movie other than survival... like romantic or mystery or true story? Add in famous actors as well. It can happens, but it'll have to come from very good group of movie makers which is the hard part. James Cameron might be our best chance since he went to bottom of the world's deepest ocean spot.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Wonder where Jedkins is...need to tell him he was right about the remnants of Chantal moving into Florida with little consequence formation wise.

Anyways, some of the tweets about SharkNado have been hilarious and amusing this evening.

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Quoting 1373. DonnieBwkGA:


It won't redevelop much if it has so little time over open water.
Quoting 1373. DonnieBwkGA:


It won't redevelop much if it has so little time over open water.


She is currently stationary or near stationary, should have a decent amount of time.

This AM, she was hugging the coastline of Cuba, now she is just off it, of course she won't develop into a significant cyclone, maybe a 25kt Tropical Depression at best.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
1396. hu2007
Quoting 1383. mikatnight:
the next wave of the cape verde look like chantal all over. with dry air and some salt ahead and to the north and embeded in the itzc and some shear in forecast for that wave at it near to the carribean
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1395. hydrus
Quoting 1386. DonnieBwkGA:


The only good science movie was the original Andromeda Strain.
That is subject to debate...2001 Space Odyssey and John Carpenter,s The Thing, was , in my opinion, close too, or as good as the Andromeda Strain....which was very good...
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1393. geepy86
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
According to these models it will be riding up the gulf stream, not making official landfall, except for the BAMMS, until Cape Canaveral.




Cape Canaveral is so overrated
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Quoting 1387. floridaT:
WHERE DID YOU GET THAT? AS MATTER OF FACT HUNDREDS OF US AIRLINES OVERFLY CUBA EVERY DAY ONLY HITCH IS THEY CHARGE THEM. SEE NO ONE ELSE CAN SPEND MONEY THERE BUT THE CORP CAN


Civilian airliners don't send coded transmissions the Cubans can't read.
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1391. Patrap
Quoting 1389. Hurricane1956:
Just wondering if that low will stall in just South of the Florida Penisula and have time to develop and stay there for a day or two?,with no stearing at this moment?,any thoughts about this?


Once that Vort establishes and gets a day under it model wise, hard to say, but steering is null for now.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting 1356. Grothar:
Latest models on 96L are out.




Put a coastal flood watch along the entire Florida coast.

My, my what would politics do with that...all those empty beaches.
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Quoting 1372. Patrap:
Def trying to congeal in the straits, a center that is.

Just wondering if that low will stall South of the Florida Penisula and have time to develop and stay there for a day or two?,with no stearing at this moment?,any thoughts about this?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Quoting 1361. Patrap:
WV shows that Low trying to Close off and gather some mo'jo.



Definitly looks like it. This is a little earlier;



Click to enlarge.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
Quoting 1354. DonnieBwkGA:


That's part of the conditions. Cuba won't allow flights with coded transmissions they can't read over their territorial waters.
WHERE DID YOU GET THAT? AS MATTER OF FACT HUNDREDS OF US AIRLINES OVERFLY CUBA EVERY DAY ONLY HITCH IS THEY CHARGE THEM. SEE NO ONE ELSE CAN SPEND MONEY THERE BUT THE CORP CAN
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Quoting 1368. mikatnight:


This is the exact reason why scientists have trouble communicating to the public. No offense intended, but y'all sound just like scientists! The reason Hollywood won't make a real movie on weather is...no one would watch it (except us).


The only good science movie was the original Andromeda Strain.
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1385. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1377. hu2007:
the tracks look like it may never redevelop again once it get inland. very short window for redeveloment


lots can happen in 6 hrs lots

things sometimes can come up all of a sudden with little to no warning

sometimes
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According to these models it will be riding up the gulf stream, not making official landfall, except for the BAMMS, until Cape Canaveral.



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1382. Patrap
Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Ok the series is up, Storm 1,2,3. Tampa Bay Afternoon Squall

Link

Link

Link
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oh-oh
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1379. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Sharknado!!!

(I'm sitting here watching this horrible film messing around on guitar, stumming an E chord and saying Sharknado!!!)
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1377. hu2007
Quoting 1356. Grothar:
Latest models on 96L are out.


the tracks look like it may never redevelop again once it get inland. very short window for redeveloment
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1376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
96L/AOI/XX
MARK
24.55N/79.89W
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Quoting 1360. Bluestorm5:
Honestly, Twister is the only movie close to accurate, but even that movie still little meteorological accurate?


Didn't (in one scene) Dorothy get knocked over from an F0 that appeared to be like 1/4 miles away?
Good graphics though.
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1374. geepy86
Quoting congaline:
Ok call her X-Chantal... whatever... here in lovely Avon Park/Sebring area we have what feels and sounds like the first bands of a tropical storm moving in... thunder, gusting rain, all the loveliest weather one could dream of... Chantal's baby , Chantal in a new dress... The storm that never really died, and now is on our doorstep... Better get out those red crayons NHC.

around here we call them afternoon storms
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Quoting 1356. Grothar:
Latest models on 96L are out.




It won't redevelop much if it has so little time over open water.
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1372. Patrap
Def trying to congeal in the straits, a center that is.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
OK so, looking at SSD w/ frnt overlay's on. There are three surface troughs and a ULL trying to develop, lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1370. hydrus
Quoting 1361. Patrap:
WV shows that Low trying to Close off and gather some mo'jo.

Its tha hot watter dude...
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Quoting 1356. Grothar:
Latest models on 96L are out.




Shall she Ying or Yang? That is the question.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting 1360. Bluestorm5:
Honestly, Twister is the only movie close to accurate, but even that movie still little meteorological accurate?


This is the exact reason why scientists have trouble communicating to the public. No offense intended, but y'all sound just like scientists! The reason Hollywood won't make a real movie on weather is...no one would watch it (except us).
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1367. hu2007
Quoting 1359. mikatnight:
mess of wind feel down there has some cyclonic twist but very broad and disorganize
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1366. vis0
If you're interested in what this img
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
means as to the weather influencing device i call an ml-d, please TRY to read this blogbit (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/vis0/comment.htm l?entrynum=157)


Also remember an ml-d trumps the haarp, as it sends to a type of "grounding" the output of haarp.


What a BEAUTIFUL!!! IMG (in Dr. Master's opening statement/description.) Simple yet so breathtaking due to its hues.
Thank you for, "Sunset before Chantal" WXU & (LindyLu60).
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1365. hydrus
Quoting 1338. Grothar:


Just as long as it goes over Geoff's house and not ours.
Yes...And he will weather it out watching -Sharknado ! The Series !...man life is good in da hurrican belt..:)
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Quoting 1360. Bluestorm5:
Honestly, Twister is the only movie close to accurate, but even that movie still little meteorological accurate?


In Atomic Twister they play twister!

Full Atomic Twister movie.
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1363. Patrap
Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
1362. 7544
Quoting 1356. Grothar:
Latest models on 96L are out.




so it is sse of miami as they plot show aand very close to se coast of fl now it does have a little time to develope maybe at dmax tonight
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1361. Patrap
WV shows that Low trying to Close off and gather some mo'jo.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting 1346. DonnieBwkGA:


Maximum Velocity is the worst.
Honestly, Twister is the only movie close to accurate, but even that movie still little meteorological accurate?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
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Ok call her X-Chantal... whatever... here in lovely Avon Park/Sebring area we have what feels and sounds like the first bands of a tropical storm moving in... thunder, gusting rain, all the loveliest weather one could dream of... Chantal's baby , Chantal in a new dress... The storm that never really died, and now is on our doorstep... Better get out those red crayons NHC.
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Quoting 1349. Patrap:
US-Cuba Hurricane Conference
Posted by: Patrap, 12:17 PM CST on November 24, 2009


Ask and you shall receive!

Hey y'all

Ol' Pat's got more links than a chain supply store, eh?
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1356. Grothar
Latest models on 96L are out.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1355. hu2007
good evening. chantal is doing horrible tonight, my personal % is near 0 for chantal and if stay weak it may never develop again until maybe chantal move off the east coast after making land fall and start moving out to sea and redevelops. other wise i dont see nothing of interest in the atlantic and here in puerto rico is still hot and humid at 10:26 pm and a lot of haze :/
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Quoting 1350. RTSplayer:


I knew they allowed us airspace, but I didn't know we were giving one another raw data feeds.

Thanks.


That's part of the conditions. Cuba won't allow flights with coded transmissions they can't read over their territorial waters.
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Quoting 1347. RTSplayer:
Here's the real problem in terms of redevelopment.

500mb vorticity



800mb vorticity



They are displaced by about a full diameter of one another, so they are working against one another.


THERE IS
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FORM 26N73W TO 22N76W
AND
A STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 73W AND THE STRONG SURFACE
TROUGH.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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