Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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the 850mb vorticity has become a little more elongated over the past 6 hours... the vort has been hugging the Cuba coast all day long... we will see what happens. looks like this thing might make the gulf, if so, the conditions appear to be a little better.
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1452. scott39
Quoting 1441. ProgressivePulse:


18mph?, lol. Where is that from?

per Tropical Atlantic...I stand corrected...96L 12 hour average is moving NW 311 degrees at 17mph.
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and quite frankly they are very good and very professional controllers
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Quoting 1446. hydrus:
I was thinkin Chantal..Since it is basically what remains from her.



Okay, that make since. Do you think she will pull her act together?
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Quoting 1437. FIUStormChaser:


Two days to get to Florida or to South Carolina?
In my humble opinion,this system is not going anywhere soon!! there are not any stearing currents to move this system for at least 36-48 hours,so it can easily develop just to south of South Florida and stay there for hours!.
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1448. beell
Quoting 1441. ProgressivePulse:


18mph?, lol. Where is that from?



Kinda wondering the source here also.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16734
1447. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
1446. hydrus
Quoting 1443. Newswatcher:
I was looking at a future radar track for Chantal. It looks like she might pull herself together 24-36 hours before landfall. By that time she pulls herself together (according to future cast) she should be located just north of the Bahamas. It is very interesting watching this storm. Will it be still called Chantal or Dorian since she was declared dead by NHC?
I was thinkin Chantal..Since it is basically what remains from her.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting 1440. Patrap:


Use this site for the GOM Current, winds, waves.

wavcis.csi.lsu.edu

GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast Model


Excellent! Thank you very much.

My dad was a research meteorologist (he worked on TIROS and NIMBUS) and he would be happy to see that I am finally soaking up something.
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and cuba has been very good about letting the hurricane hunters in there airspace over the years
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I was looking at a future radar track for Chantal. It looks like she might pull herself together 24-36 hours before landfall. By that time she pulls herself together (according to future cast) she should be located just north of the Bahamas. It is very interesting watching this storm. Will it be still called Chantal or Dorian since she was declared dead by NHC?
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Quoting 1427. DonnieBwkGA:


And I served in the army and I do know about Cuban requirements for overflight. They won't allow flights in their airspace making transmissions they can't read. Cuba is very touchy about that.

You know nothing about the issue and just want to act all 'bad' on the 'net.
i had a direct line talked to cuban controllers evry 5 min when i worked you know nothing, stop spreading false statements. and stop getting your info from hollywood movies.
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Quoting 1433. scott39:
96L 23.3N 79.0W moving NW at 18mph


18mph?, lol. Where is that from?

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
1440. Patrap
Quoting 1435. JustDucky251:


I admit that I am surprised that there is so much expansion. Thanks for the info.

BTW how much effect would a long wind fetch affect the anomalies?


Use this site for the GOM Current, winds, waves.

wavcis.csi.lsu.edu

GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast Model
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
1439. ncstorm
again..are we posting non weather images..where is Whitewabbit?
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1438. hydrus

Latest HWRF takes it straight up the east coast of Florida.
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Quoting 1432. ProgressivePulse:


2 days.


Two days to get to Florida or to South Carolina?
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1436. Patrap
96L 23.3N 79.0W moving NW at 18mph


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting 1430. Patrap:


Thermal Expansion from the Loop current usually..as the Warmest Pools of surface water in the GOM "Dome in height" comparatively to the coolers waters.



I admit that I am surprised that there is so much expansion. Thanks for the info.

BTW how much effect would a long wind fetch affect the anomalies?
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Quoting 1403. congaline:

Its not afternoon, and there will be much more to come as the messy blob of a storm comes over the state. There is a different feel to the storms that move in from the coast during the day and the gusting blustery feel of a rain band from a tropical entity.
I know what you mean. Storm bands from tropical systems feel much warmer than thunderstorms, and move very quickly, and the rain is lighter, and warm, whereas the rain from typical thunderstorms feels cold.
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1433. scott39
96L 23.3N 79.0W moving NW at 18mph
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Quoting 1424. FIUStormChaser:


How long do you think it has over water?


2 days.
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1431. Patrap
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
1430. Patrap
Quoting 1419. JustDucky251:


What are sea height anomalies caused by? Obviously pressure is the primary cause, but what are other factors.


Thermal Expansion from the Loop current usually..as the Warmest Pools of surface water in the GOM "Dome in height" comparatively to the coolers waters.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting 1410. KingofNewOrleans:


Tara Reid and Ian Zering!

I can't believe the NHC never warned us about the potential for Sharknadoes.


Slackers! They shoulda seen it coming. We've long known about trout and frogs and such flung about by twisters. It's just a matter of time...as the climate warms further, you too will have a shark on your roof.

BTW, y'all don't think the good ol' doc promoted that movie just 'cause he's a big fan do ya?

Steel yourselves for a wonderful piece on everyones' favorite subject: Climate Change!
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exChantal is weird , notice in the night convection refires north of Cuba, in the day it's south of Cuba, strange one for sure.

Anyways everyone have a great and safe night.
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Quoting 1418. floridaT:
as a retired aviation guy we learned long ago diss-imformation is very dangerous no information is better. or i dont know is better. dont state facts you know nothing about.


And I served in the army and I do know about Cuban requirements for overflight. They won't allow flights in their airspace making transmissions they can't read. Cuba is very touchy about that.

You know nothing about the issue and just want to act all 'bad' on the 'net.
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1426. 7544
Quoting 1413. ProgressivePulse:
Going by where the models were initialized 96L around 23.9N 79.1W off the southern tip of Andros.



agree and now that it stall it may hve some time to get more organized maybe dmax will tell us the story if it dosent move by then .
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1425. hu2007
Quoting 1415. mikatnight:


Everyone's been saying the middle of July starts ramp-up. All signs point to an eventful year.
it will ramp up after day 20 or 25 of july and yess that is going to be a very active year
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Quoting 1413. ProgressivePulse:
Going by where the models were initialized 96L around 23.9N 79.1W off the southern tip of Andros.



How long do you think it has over water?
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 775
Slow ride up the coast will cause mucho flooding for many. That will likely be the calling card for this AOI.
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1422. beell
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16734
1421. Pallis
Quoting 1336. RTSplayer:


I laughed, so you get a plus from me.

That was a good one. I said last night about storms disappearing at night only to jump up over the island in a new position, but it also works the other way when storms do this. I hope that who is right is right and Texas gets some dang rain, even if just a little.
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1420. hu2007
Quoting 1412. EyEtoEyE:
So what is her royal blobbiness going to do , tonight develope or not?
not tonight if any chances
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Quoting 1408. Patrap:
Well we def don't want this envelope to solidify and Spin and track wnw to NW, thats fer sure.



GOM Sea Height Anomaly



What are sea height anomalies caused by? Obviously pressure is the primary cause, but what are other factors.
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Quoting 1392. DonnieBwkGA:


Civilian airliners don't send coded transmissions the Cubans can't read.
as a retired aviation guy we learned long ago diss-imformation is very dangerous no information is better. or i dont know is better. dont state facts you know nothing about.
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1417. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
1416. hydrus
Quoting 1408. Patrap:
Well we def don't want this envelope to solidify and Spin and track wnw to NW, thats fer sure.



GOM Sea Height Anomaly

Very true..It would be unpleasant if 96L were to make the gulf and intensify.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting 1396. hu2007:
the next wave of the cape verde look like chantal all over. with dry air and some salt ahead and to the north and embeded in the itzc and some shear in forecast for that wave at it near to the carribean


Everyone's been saying the middle of July starts ramp-up. All signs point to an eventful year.
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Quoting 1392. DonnieBwkGA:


Civilian airliners don't send coded transmissions the Cubans can't read.
right they dont have or use ARINC? look it up
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Going by where the models were initialized 96L around 23.9N 79.1W off the southern tip of Andros.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
So what is her royal blobbiness going to do , tonight develope or not?
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1411. hydrus
Quoting 1401. avthunder:
You should watch Whalacane. Kind of an indie film, but very hip and irreverent.
Reminds me of the horror flick- Grizzly Bear with Rabies...Which would make Cujo look like Benji.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting 1378. Slamguitar:
Sharknado!!!

(I'm sitting here watching this horrible film messing around on guitar, stumming an E chord and saying Sharknado!!!)


Tara Reid and Ian Zering!

I can't believe the NHC never warned us about the potential for Sharknadoes.
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1409. hu2007
Quoting 1384. ProgressivePulse:
According to these models it will be riding up the gulf stream, not making official landfall, except for the BAMMS, until Cape Canaveral.



i like bamms cause there are for me ones of the best models and has 3 distint ideas of possible tracks
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1408. Patrap
Well we def don't want this envelope to solidify and Spin and track wnw to NW, thats fer sure.



GOM Sea Height Anomaly

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
might as well throw the red crayon in the pooper. just call it a td chantel
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4747
Quoting 1391. Patrap:


Once that Vort establishes and gets a day under it model wise, hard to say, but steering is null for now.




This explains why she is stationary.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 775
Quoting 1391. Patrap:


Once that Vort establishes and gets a day under it model wise, hard to say, but steering is null for now.
Thank you very much!!!,I guess it will be a painful! waiting period for us here in Miami,specially when you have family beach plans In South Beach for the weekend,almost certain that we will have to cancel no matter what happens,I believe we can get a lot of stormy weather starting tomorrow through Sunday.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 624
Quoting 1395. hydrus:
That is subject to debate...2001 Space Odyssey and John Carpenter,s The Thing, was , in my opinion, close too, or as good as the Andromeda Strain....which was very good...


I was thinking that the Andromeda strain showed the process of science, squinting into petri dishes, not getting what the different levels of growth meant, paper jams in alarms.

2001 Space Odyssey and Blade runner are great science fiction movies.
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Quoting 1374. geepy86:

around here we call them afternoon storms

Its not afternoon, and there will be much more to come as the messy blob of a storm comes over the state. There is a different feel to the storms that move in from the coast during the day and the gusting blustery feel of a rain band from a tropical entity.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.