Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

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The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

Sunset before Chantal (LindyLu60)
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....
Sunset before Chantal

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1903. vis0
Quoting 1770. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone have one of these?

Yes i have, but i put it up at the pawn shop just to cash up for a sure winner in race #3. When i went back to get it, in under an hour & every time from then on i go to the shop the guy somehow knows i'm coming and jacks up the price.
ONE more look at CHANTAL(s). Photo/Image provided
courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory
Monterey.(minus the Zillies)

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1902. Matt74
Quoting 1804. Stormchaser121:

What are your thoughts on this thing...Levi did mention this.
probably won't happen but isn't 999 mb a cat 1?
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1901. sar2401
Quoting hydrus:
I do not believe much of the dry air you see will make into the gulf....I could be wrong tho, the weather has been strange to say the least.

I'm with PCola on this one. Dewpoints in north Alabama are already 10 degrees lower than yesterday, and the drier airis making progress south. Since it's Alabama in summer, we're not going to have temps fall in the 70's during the dday but it looks like we will have at least a few days of tolerable humidity and sunny weather. The leading edge of our "not as hot" front is already visible as a line of showers advancing into the Gulf.
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1900. hydrus
The 5 day RUC does have low pressure heading towards Florida and lingering. There is blocking to the north, which means the S.E.U.S stays wet. Also notice all the highs over our part of the world, and all the lows over the continent of Asia.

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Quoting 1887. indianrivguy:


Good morning Joe! I'm supposed to be going out for an oyster restoration with Congressman Murphy, and SLC Commissioner Chris Dzadovsky tomorrow.. talk about worrying about weather.......


Chris sits on the Indian River lagoon National Estuary Program Advisory Committee. Rep. Murphy appears to be willing to battle Big Sugar to stop Lake O releases. The lagoon must be saved.
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Good morning all, got right at 3 inches of sky juice yesterday afternoon in about an hour. A tad muggy this morning, waiting on that dry air. Have a great Friday
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1897. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, everyone. A very humid 75 degrees this morning. I thought I'd mow the back yard while it's still 'cool', but stepped outside with the dogs and decided that wasn't a good idea; I felt like I was swimming as I headed to stand in the shade under the large pine tree in the middle of the front yard.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: scrambled egg spinach casserole, breakfast pizza, filled croissants, apple and raisin strudel, poached eggs with a spinach sauté, Italian sausage, fried lean ham, fresh fruit, yogurt, cappuccino, regular and decaf coffee. Enjoy!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3145
1895. hydrus
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1894. hydrus
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Quoting 1892. indianrivguy:


of course you did.. that geezer Grothar is probably still sleeping.. snooze ya looze :)

he'll prolly tell us he saw it in a dream...




LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting 1891. Tazmanian:
I. Saw it 1st


of course you did.. that geezer Grothar is probably still sleeping.. snooze ya looze :)

he'll prolly tell us he saw it in a dream...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2563
I. Saw it 1st
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
1889. hydrus
Quoting 1885. MississippiWx:


It already has a decent reflection at the 850mb level, something the last upper low never really had.

It is also pooling moisture in the center. Which means the air within the system is warming.
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1888. hydrus
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Quoting 1884. rmbjoe1954:


Good Morning, Marty!

Enjoy the sun before the boomers begin!


Good morning Joe! I'm supposed to be going out for an oyster restoration with Congressman Murphy, and SLC Commissioner Chris Dzadovsky tomorrow.. talk about worrying about weather.......
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2563
Quoting 1877. AussieStorm:

ex-97?? Have we reached it yet?



Nop not yet I think he ment ex 96L wish we have reached
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting 1876. hydrus:
I agree. It has a few things going for it..Th Bermuda High being one of them.


It already has a decent reflection at the 850mb level, something the last upper low never really had.

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Quoting 1880. indianrivguy:


Good morning from Jensen Beach!


Good Morning, Marty!

Enjoy the sun before the boomers begin!
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1883. etxwx
Good morning, day and evening to all. Just a quick note on the continued flooding in China then I gotta run. It's a mess over there.


Rescuers race against time to evacuate people as floods continue to sweep through Guanghan, Southwest China's Sichuan province, on Thursday. [Photo/China Daily]

Lifesaving top priority, premier says
2013-07-12 By HUANG ZHILING ( China Daily)
Floods and landslides have affected about 3.73 million people in 17 provincial-level regions, forcing the evacuation of 212,000 residents, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said. Rainstorms have destroyed more than 8,400 houses and damaged another 113,000, causing direct economic losses of 8.56 billion yuan ($1.4 billion), according to the ministry.
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Let's see what else is going on...

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It's a Sharknado man.

Lol.

Television keeps getting worse and worse. I can't believe we actually pay for this stuff.

Well, actually, we don't pay for this crap, but that's what the networks put on. They promise 4 star quality and deliver a negative star quality: Something worth less than nothing.

Next up:

Leprechano. That's right, a volcano that pops up under your bed and shoots burning Leprechauns made of rock! Tough Luck.
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Quoting 1809. jeebsa:

Good morning from Martin County Fl.


Good morning from Jensen Beach!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2563
1879. hydrus
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Is wondering if being the only circulation out there if storms will be able to wrap around the spin over the Fl keys.
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Quoting islander101010:
yep i had a great forecast for ex 97 calling for no development for days but seeing it move into the western gulf thats when i changed to a more bullish forecast. big mistake and what ticks me off i knew the chances are limited because there was a cane in the epac. learn from my mistakes. wth its just a hobby anyway.

ex-97?? Have we reached it yet?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
1876. hydrus
Quoting 1873. MississippiWx:
Upper low in the Atlantic looks to be the biggest threat for development in the short term. It should have a better chance than the last one as well. We'll see.

I agree. It has a few things going for it..Th Bermuda High being one of them.
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the next tropical wave to watch with a spin to it!!
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1874. pcola57
Quoting 1872. hydrus:
I do not believe much of the dry air you see will make into the gulf....I could be wrong tho, the weather has been strange to say the least.


You could be right hydrus..
But it's getting close now..



Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6842
Upper low in the Atlantic looks to be the biggest threat for development in the short term. It should have a better chance than the last one as well. We'll see.

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1872. hydrus
Quoting 1869. pcola57:
Thats a very large area of dry air heading to the GOM..
Wonder what that will due to the supposed prediction of wet GOM from Ex-Chantal..
I see SST's going up when this gets to the GOM as well..








I do not believe much of the dry air you see will make into the gulf....I could be wrong tho, the weather has been strange to say the least.
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Quoting 1868. islander101010:

yep i had a great forecast for ex 97 calling for no development for days but seeing it move into the western gulf thats when i changed to a more bullish forecast. big mistake and what ticks me off i knew the chances were limited because there was a cane in the epac. learn from my mistakes. wth its just a hobby anyway.
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1870. hydrus
Quoting 1865. PortoJuan:

inflation
More like hyperinflation.
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1869. pcola57
Thats a very large area of dry air heading to the GOM..
Wonder what that will due to the supposed prediction of wet GOM from Ex-Chantal..
I see SST's going up when this gets to the GOM as well..








Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6842
yep i had a great forecast for ex 97 calling for no development for days but seeing it move into the western gulf thats when i changed to a more bullish forecast. big mistake and what ticks me off i knew the chances are limited because there was a cane in the epac. learn from my mistakes. wth its just a hobby anyway.
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SSD floater has invest in EPAC without number.

Link
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1866. hydrus
Quoting 1862. indianrivguy:


I went through some nightmares myself Aussie.. dang Veterans Administration nearly killed me twice with prescribed medicines...
I have had a couple of close calls. I am allergic to just about every pain med except aspirin and ibuprofen.
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Keep a eye on the gulf
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1863. 62901IL
SPC! NHC! GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
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Quoting 1858. AussieStorm:


Don't sell yourself short mate, you're not bad for an older guy. I hope I even reach your age with all these different drugs/medication I have taken.


I went through some nightmares myself Aussie.. dang Veterans Administration nearly killed me twice with prescribed medicines...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2563
1861. hydrus
Quoting 1856. islander101010:
new invest in epac means its less likely for one in the nw carib
True..The West Caribbean still has a shot tho..Good morning.
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Good Morning Folks. Good time to take a break over the next several days and ponder what the rest of the season might bring. Perhaps another storm before the end of July (from where I have no idea) then a big uptick in viable waves in August.

The game plan from the NOAA Mariners Guide and other NHC/NOAA publications:

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.


NHC began publically issuing categorical 48-h genesis forecasts in 2008 and began including the specific percentage in 2010

Probabilities contained in the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products issued 4 times daily (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) along with special outlooks issued as needed

Probability of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours for individual disturbances

Based on analysis of current state of the atmosphere, satellite imagery, and model output</em>
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Quoting 1856. islander101010:
new invest in epac means its less likely for one in the nw carib




seems like the E pac has been geting all the fun so far this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting indianrivguy:


Thank you for the kind words.. say, when was the last time you had your eyes checked?


Don't sell yourself short mate, you're not bad for an older guy. I hope I even reach your age with all these different drugs/medication I have taken.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
1857. ncstorm
from the NWS, Wilmington, NC

THE PLAUSIBLE
LOOKING WRF HOWEVER DRAWS UP THE BLOB OF CONVECTION ASSOC WITH
FORMER CHANTAL UP THE FL EAST COAST AND INTO SRN SC COAST BY SAT.
WHILE NOT A DIRECT `LANDFALL` VERY CLOSE TO OUR AREA THIS TRACK
WOULD FOCUS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JETTING INTO MOST OF
THE REGION BUT MOSTLY SC ZONES. ON ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM THE GFS
DOES NOT PORTRAY THE SYSTEM AT ALL WHILE THE CGEM RESTRENGTHENS IT
AND SMASHES IT INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION MIDDAY SAT. BOTH OF THESE
EXTREMES PROB UNLIKELY AND THE WRF A SEEMING GOOD COMPROMISE AT THIS
TIME. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED `MISS` THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EXCEED MODEL GUIDANCE AND QPF FCST HAS BEEN
RAISED AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSS PUT INTO WX GRIDS AND MENTIONED IN
HWO.
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new invest in epac means its less likely for one in the nw carib
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1855. pcola57
Quoting 1852. indianrivguy:


Thank you for the kind words.. say, when was the last time you had your eyes checked?


LOL..
I go next Wednesday.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6842
1854. flcanes
Back from lurking!
Anyways, it appears our remnants of chantal are almost dead. All right, Dorian, your next.
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1853. hydrus
When they say the rich keep getting richer, they mean it. The number of billionaires has tripled in the past thirteen years..
Year Number of billionaires Group's combined net worth
2013 1,426 $5.4 trillion
2012 1,226 $4.6 trillion
2011 1,210 $4.5 trillion
2010 1,011 $3.6 trillion
2009 793 $2.4 trillion
2008 1,125 $4.4 trillion
2007 946 $3.5 trillion
2006 793 $2.6 trillion
2005 691 $2.2 trillion
2004 587 $1.9 trillion
2003 476 $1.4 trillion
2002 497 $1.5 trillion
2001 538 $1.8 trillion
2000 470 $898 billion
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.