Unusual Chantal Disorganized, but has 65 mph Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2013

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Unusual Tropical Storm Chantal has strengthened a bit more as it speeds west-northwestwards at 26 mph away from the the Lesser Antilles Islands. Sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 52 mph, were observed at Martinique at 10 am AST as the storm passed. However, an automated weather station at the airport measured sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 78 mph, according to an official with Meteo-France. The Associated Press reported that Chantal ripped the roofs off of several homes on neighboring Dominica. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured top winds at their 1,000' flight level of 89 mph at 12:55 pm AST. Top winds seen by the aircraft's SFMR instrument were about 65 mph, in a small area east of Chantal's center. The Hurricane Hunters have departed Chantal, and the next plane is due in the storm at 8 pm EDT. Chantal's winds are unusually high considering the storm's high central pressure of 1006 mb and disorganized appearance on satellite imagery. Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts that are robbing Chantal of moisture and energy. Visible satellite loops show the outflow boundaries of these thunderstorm downdrafts at the surface, spreading to the northwest of Chantal. Martinique Radar shows a large area of heavy rain that is not well-organized, lying mostly to the west of the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 1 pm EDT Tuesday, July 9, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 65 mph, but looked very disorganized, due to high wind shear and dry air. Dry air is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts that are robbing Chantal of moisture and energy. Outflow boundaries from these downdrafts are spreading out to the northwest of Chantal, as seen on this satellite image. Image credit: NASA.

An small-scale easterly jet creating high shear in Chantal
Chantal is not very impressive on satellite images, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. Only a small amount of upper-level outflow is visible. The reason for Chantal's rather disorganized appearance can be found by looking at this morning's balloon sounding from Guadaloupe. This island was just northwest of the center of Chantal when the balloon was launched at 8 am EDT. The sounding showed typical easterly trade winds at the surface of 12 knots (14 mph.) However, the winds rose quickly aloft, with a jet of easterly winds of 35 - 53 knots between 800 - 600 mb (about 7,000 - 15,000'.) But, by the time the ballon hit 500 mb (18,000'), the winds had died down to 15 knots. A change of wind speed from 12 knots to 53 knots and back down to 15 knots from the surface to 500 mb is a tremendous amount of wind shear, which will make it very difficult for a tropical storm to keep the surface center aligned with the upper level center. The traditional measure of wind shear, the difference in wind between 200 mb and 850 mb, was 44 knots in this morning's Guadaloupe sounding, but was a much higher 56 knots from 200 mb to 700 mb. The powerful easterly wind jet was not apparent at any of the other balloon soundings this morning at adjacent islands (Barbados, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin), and demonstrates that there is a lot going on the atmosphere at small scales we cannot see which makes intensity forecasting of tropical cyclones very challenging. Thanks go to Jason Dunion of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division for pointing out this morning's interesting Guadaloupe sounding.

Forecast for Chantal
Chantal will have difficulty intensifying much more before hitting Hispaniola on Wednesday afternoon. In their 11 am EDT wind probability forecast, NHC gave Chantal a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the high wind shear from the strong mid-level easterly jet discussed above, plus the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process. Interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola and high wind shear may be able to destroy Chantal by Thursday. The 2 pm EDT Tuesday wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model calls for shear to rise to the high range, 20 - 35 knots, Tuesday night through Friday. On Saturday, when Chantal is expected to be in the Bahamas, moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted. If Chantal survives until Saturday, it will then have the opportunity to re-strengthen. The latest 12Z run of the European model (ECMWF) dissipates Chantal as it crosses Hispaniola. The 12Z run of the American GFS model has Chantal barely surviving.

Chantal's fast west-northwest forward speed of 26 mph will slow to 20 mph by Wednesday morning and then 10 mph by Thursday night, as the storm "feels" the presence of a trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast. This trough will steer Chantal to the northwest and then north-northwest across Hispaniola and into the Bahamas. The trough of low pressure pulling Chantal northwards is expected to lift out the the northeast over the weekend, leaving Chantal behind off the coast of Florida. High pressure will likely build in, potentially forcing Chantal westwards into the Florida or Southeast U.S. coast, with a possible Sunday landfall.

Jeff Masters

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Another look
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17093
It seems she is getting fired up this morning.

After many years of watching storms they seem to like to defy NHC just for giggles..... She aint done yet and I would expect at the minimum she will be an ugly tropical storm near Palm Beach county Fri night.

I do not see her breaking north but if she continues at a high rate of speed I think she ends up in the gulf reforming as a hurricane late next week before being forced north through the panhandle/Louisiana...IMO these storms and the ones that surprise.... No need to attack my post as I am just guessing here.
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2334. tj175
Quoting 2291. BahaHurican:
U aren't the only one thinking this way. Some friends of mine went out of town and put up all their shutters except the front ones... they figure if a relative has to come put shutters up it'll be a lot quicker that way. Seriously considering doing the back ones here myself... at least on the bedrooms nobody's using. Our shutters are HEAVY.



Glad I have accordion shutters here in Miramar. I use to put up the panels but they are a pain in the rear if you know what I mean.
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2333. pcola57
Quoting 2314. FIUStormChaser:


Look how low shear is on the other side of Cuba.


Yeah I see that FIUStormChaser..
Here's CIMISS Mid-Shear..

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Quoting 2324. Hurricane1956:
Thank you!! wunderkidcayman,god this things happens when you need it more!!!

I understand your frustration
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Quoting 2320. BahaHurican:
You are a bad influence... I went out and took a few pics this a.m. shortly after getting up... haven't done that in ages... unfortunately I have no handsome Dex to accompany me...


It's good for ya!
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GFS definitely dropped Dorian... maybe because of the unfavorable MJO through the end of July :(
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Quoting 2318. SFLWeatherman:
It's coming!:)
Return of the blob.
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Quoting 2307. indianrivguy:


Do you know Lantana Lou?

What is going on with that shoreline...


It's actually at the end of Iris St.. Last night's rainfall washed a gully through the sand that's been building up on the IC bank for the last month.

I've heard of Lantana Lou, my neighbor, Steve knows him to some degree - "Old dude, comes out on Ocean Groundhog Day."
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2327. hydrus
Quoting 2275. RitaEvac:
This is what happens when a system moves over 20mph and doesn't develop....all models just play catch up of where ever it is

That chicken wire you have posted is what I was afraid of seeing this morning. Chantal still could make the gulf. HWRF said no..
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2326. bigtp3
Quoting 2318. SFLWeatherman:
It's coming!:)


Working here in Pembroke Pines, FL. Waiting to see what this blob does!
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Quoting 2313. Hurricane1956:
I have a questions,did anybody else is having trouble with the Satellite loops?,or it's my computer system,I can't see the complete loop in any of the different formats,GulfLink of Mexico,Carribean etc.

Link
try this one.
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Quoting 2319. wunderkidcayman:

Yep same here
Thank you!! wunderkidcayman,god this things happens when you need it more!!!
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2323. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
TYPHOON SOULIK (T1307)
18:00 PM JST July 10 2013
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Named Cyclone In Sea South Of Japan

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Soulik (925 hPa) located at 21.6N 134.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.1N 128.9E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
45 HRS: 23.4N 124.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) near Yaeyama Islands
69 HRS: 26.2N 119.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Southeastern China
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8AM
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2321. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TYPHOON HUANING
5:00 PM PhST July 10 2013
================================================= =

Typhoon "HUANING" has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a west northwest direction

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Huaning [SOULIK] (948 hPa) located at 21.6N 134.4E or 1,150 km east of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gustiness up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal warning #1

Luzon Region
------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 800 km diameter of the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM tonight.
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Quoting 2302. mikatnight:
Uh oh, where's Taz? I'm late as hel..., er, heck. Oh well, maybe I can slip it in while he's not looking...

Location: Lantana, FL
Wind: calm
Humidity: high
Temperature: not bad
General Conditions: rainy

This was not an easy assignment today. Cloudy morning left me with nothing to shoot. If I can find a place to get up high enough, I could take a pic with the ocean in the background. There is a rather large oak I could climb...dunno, should I risk my life for the blog? I know what you're all thinking...Of course you should! Anyway, for now, best I can do for today's Good Morning! picture...

7:51 am (11:51 GMT)


I took nearly 100 pics of Dex, trying to get a shot of something besides his butt or his head buried in a hole. He was totally uncooperative. All business, though he did stop long enough for a quick, "Hey Y'all!", then back in action...
You are a bad influence... I went out and took a few pics this a.m. shortly after getting up... haven't done that in ages... unfortunately I have no handsome Dex to accompany me...
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Quoting 2313. Hurricane1956:
I have a questions,did anybody else is having trouble with the Satellite loops?,or it's my computer system,I can't see the complete loop in any of the different formats,Gulf of Mexico,Carribean etc.

Yep same here
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
It's coming!:)
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Since NHC has been so wrong on track, which a lot of people on here anticipated, I feel somewhat more confident in disagreeing on their pronouncement of Chantal as a defunct system. She still has good circulation, is pulling in lots of moisture, is in a warm ocean environment, and she will be slowing down soon. She may get her act together yet....
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I use WunderMap satellite from classic website, it's simple and works.
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2315. Grothar
Quoting 2297. ProgressivePulse:
If I had to take a stab, I would say there is a center trying to reform under the deep convection around 17N.



I think you are right. That is why I am not writing her off.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26502
Quoting 2298. pcola57:
Chantal entering stronger wind shear conditions today as well as mountainous terrain..
This will be the day of challenge for her..
I expect she will slow down and be an open wave for 24hrs.
Then SST's will help in regeneration for tomorrow..
As I said earlier this is a learning curve for us and we should take note and keep her on our radar as I really don't think she is through..
Yet..



Look how low shear is on the other side of Cuba.
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I have a questions,did anybody else is having trouble with the Satellite loops?,or it's my computer system,I can't see the complete loop in any of the different formats,Gulf of Mexico,Carribean etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2312. bigtp3
Quoting 2275. RitaEvac:
This is what happens when a system moves over 20mph and doesn't develop....all models just play catch up of where ever it is



That is one big spread...
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Coordinates: 17.0N 72.5W
Estimated Surface Wind: From 50° at 25 knots (From the NE at ~ 28.7 mph)
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They are still calling it a depression off the east coast as of Saturday. Will have to see what the 11am has to say about all that
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Quoting 2295. rmbjoe1954:


I have three bedrooms that are unoccupied. That sounds like a time-saving good idea but my wife loves to have light in the house- no dark rooms.
I can't say I blame her. I would be reluctant to shutter used rooms early.
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Quoting 2302. mikatnight:
Uh oh, where's Taz? I'm late as hel..., er, heck. Oh well, maybe I can slip it in while he's not looking...

Location: Lantana, FL
Wind: calm
Humidity: high
Temperature: not bad
General Conditions: rainy

This was not an easy assignment today. Cloudy morning left me with nothing to shoot. If I can find a place to get up high enough, I could take a pic with the ocean in the background. There is a rather large oak I could climb...dunno, should I risk my life for the blog? I know what you're all thinking...Of course you should! Anyway, for now, best I can do for today's Good Morning! picture...

7:51 am (11:51 GMT)


I took nearly 100 pics of Dex, trying to get a shot of something besides his butt or his head buried in a hole. He was totally uncooperative. All business, though he did stop long enough for a quick, "Hey Y'all!", then back in action...


Do you know Lantana Lou?

What is going on with that shoreline...
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thanks king cane thats been my characters forecast good to know someones finally jumped on the bus. instead of up biscayne bay ive changed it biscayne blvd.
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Quoting 2297. ProgressivePulse:
If I had to take a stab, I would say there is a center trying to reform under the deep convection around 17N.

I agree; I had been looking at the same thing!
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2304. Dakster
Models are now trending towards a GOM storm. Lookie outtie Texas. (Just kidding - but it is starting to look like that may not be so far fetched)

That is the problem with a wave, they tend to move more west than North.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10462
Quoting 2294. unknowncomic:
She's jumping into the spa.



could hardly have been said better...
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Uh oh, where's Taz? I'm late as hel..., er, heck. Oh well, maybe I can slip it in while he's not looking...

Location: Lantana, FL
Wind: calm
Humidity: high
Temperature: not bad
General Conditions: rainy

This was not an easy assignment today. Cloudy morning left me with nothing to shoot. If I can find a place to get up high enough, I could take a pic with the ocean in the background. There is a rather large oak I could climb...dunno, should I risk my life for the blog? I know what you're all thinking...Of course you should! Anyway, for now, best I can do for today's Good Morning! picture...

7:51 am (11:51 GMT)


I took nearly 100 pics of Dex, trying to get a shot of something besides his butt or his head buried in a hole. He was totally uncooperative. All business, though he did stop long enough for a quick, "Hey Y'all!", then back in action...
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Doesn't help that the satellites are screwed up
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I don't post often, but I must say Chantal and this blog is as entertaining as the heat spurs series. Chantal like both teams seems to bounce back from the brink of defeat. I woke up at four curious how she was doing and saw no convection, now she is back in the game. Personally I think she will make it over the mountains of both Haiti and Cuba. Going with a Miami (go heat) land fall as a hurricane, probably minimal but she has been so resilient I can't not help but root for her to make(not wish casting, really don't want to see life and property loss) it.
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Quoting 2290. rmbjoe1954:


Hi IRGuy-

I am in Port Saint Lucie.


ohhh... sorry.. :) I'm in Jensen right down the road!
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2298. pcola57
Chantal entering stronger wind shear conditions today as well as mountainous terrain..
This will be the day of challenge for her..
I expect she will slow down and be an open wave for 24hrs.
Then SST's will help in regeneration for tomorrow..
As I said earlier this is a learning curve for us and we should take note and keep her on our radar as I really don't think she is through..
Yet..

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If I had to take a stab, I would say there is a center trying to reform under the deep convection around 17N.

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Quoting 2294. unknowncomic:
She's jumping into the spa.


That may help her to redevelop here LLC
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Quoting 2291. BahaHurican:
U aren't the only one thinking this way. Some friends of mine went out of town and put up all their shutters except the front ones... they figure if a relative has to come put shutters up it'll be a lot quicker that way. Seriously considering doing the back ones here myself... at least on the bedrooms nobody's using. Our shutters are HEAVY.


I have three bedrooms that are unoccupied. That sounds like a time-saving good idea but my wife loves to have light in the house- no dark rooms.
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She's jumping into the spa.

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I am on the West Coast Of Florida, St Petersburg to be exact. I am keeping a close eye on this one.
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I don't know that she is done. Appears to be going through some sort of structural changes ATM.
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Quoting 2286. rmbjoe1954:
As I live in East Central Florida I intend to put up hurricane shutters at least on my gable vents this weekend to save me time when I really need to board up the rest of the house this summer.

It's going to be that type of season.
U aren't the only one thinking this way. Some friends of mine went out of town and put up all their shutters except the front ones... they figure if a relative has to come put shutters up it'll be a lot quicker that way. Seriously considering doing the back ones here myself... at least on the bedrooms nobody's using. Our shutters are HEAVY.
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Quoting 2287. indianrivguy:


where ya at Joe?


Hi IRGuy-

I am in Port Saint Lucie.
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It is thank you!
Quoting 2279. SouthernIllinois:

Is that your website Southwest Florida Weatherman. I LOVE IT.
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Quoting 2286. rmbjoe1954:
As I live in East Central Florida I intend to put up hurricane shutters at least on my gable vents this weekend to save me time when I really need to board up the rest of the house this summer.

It's going to be that type of season.


where ya at Joe?
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As I live in East Central Florida I intend to put up hurricane shutters at least on my gable vents this weekend to save me time when I really need to board up the rest of the house this summer.

It's going to be that type of season.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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