Unusual Chantal Disorganized, but has 65 mph Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2013

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Unusual Tropical Storm Chantal has strengthened a bit more as it speeds west-northwestwards at 26 mph away from the the Lesser Antilles Islands. Sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 52 mph, were observed at Martinique at 10 am AST as the storm passed. However, an automated weather station at the airport measured sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 78 mph, according to an official with Meteo-France. The Associated Press reported that Chantal ripped the roofs off of several homes on neighboring Dominica. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured top winds at their 1,000' flight level of 89 mph at 12:55 pm AST. Top winds seen by the aircraft's SFMR instrument were about 65 mph, in a small area east of Chantal's center. The Hurricane Hunters have departed Chantal, and the next plane is due in the storm at 8 pm EDT. Chantal's winds are unusually high considering the storm's high central pressure of 1006 mb and disorganized appearance on satellite imagery. Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts that are robbing Chantal of moisture and energy. Visible satellite loops show the outflow boundaries of these thunderstorm downdrafts at the surface, spreading to the northwest of Chantal. Martinique Radar shows a large area of heavy rain that is not well-organized, lying mostly to the west of the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 1 pm EDT Tuesday, July 9, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 65 mph, but looked very disorganized, due to high wind shear and dry air. Dry air is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts that are robbing Chantal of moisture and energy. Outflow boundaries from these downdrafts are spreading out to the northwest of Chantal, as seen on this satellite image. Image credit: NASA.

An small-scale easterly jet creating high shear in Chantal
Chantal is not very impressive on satellite images, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. Only a small amount of upper-level outflow is visible. The reason for Chantal's rather disorganized appearance can be found by looking at this morning's balloon sounding from Guadaloupe. This island was just northwest of the center of Chantal when the balloon was launched at 8 am EDT. The sounding showed typical easterly trade winds at the surface of 12 knots (14 mph.) However, the winds rose quickly aloft, with a jet of easterly winds of 35 - 53 knots between 800 - 600 mb (about 7,000 - 15,000'.) But, by the time the ballon hit 500 mb (18,000'), the winds had died down to 15 knots. A change of wind speed from 12 knots to 53 knots and back down to 15 knots from the surface to 500 mb is a tremendous amount of wind shear, which will make it very difficult for a tropical storm to keep the surface center aligned with the upper level center. The traditional measure of wind shear, the difference in wind between 200 mb and 850 mb, was 44 knots in this morning's Guadaloupe sounding, but was a much higher 56 knots from 200 mb to 700 mb. The powerful easterly wind jet was not apparent at any of the other balloon soundings this morning at adjacent islands (Barbados, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin), and demonstrates that there is a lot going on the atmosphere at small scales we cannot see which makes intensity forecasting of tropical cyclones very challenging. Thanks go to Jason Dunion of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division for pointing out this morning's interesting Guadaloupe sounding.

Forecast for Chantal
Chantal will have difficulty intensifying much more before hitting Hispaniola on Wednesday afternoon. In their 11 am EDT wind probability forecast, NHC gave Chantal a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the high wind shear from the strong mid-level easterly jet discussed above, plus the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process. Interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola and high wind shear may be able to destroy Chantal by Thursday. The 2 pm EDT Tuesday wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model calls for shear to rise to the high range, 20 - 35 knots, Tuesday night through Friday. On Saturday, when Chantal is expected to be in the Bahamas, moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted. If Chantal survives until Saturday, it will then have the opportunity to re-strengthen. The latest 12Z run of the European model (ECMWF) dissipates Chantal as it crosses Hispaniola. The 12Z run of the American GFS model has Chantal barely surviving.

Chantal's fast west-northwest forward speed of 26 mph will slow to 20 mph by Wednesday morning and then 10 mph by Thursday night, as the storm "feels" the presence of a trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast. This trough will steer Chantal to the northwest and then north-northwest across Hispaniola and into the Bahamas. The trough of low pressure pulling Chantal northwards is expected to lift out the the northeast over the weekend, leaving Chantal behind off the coast of Florida. High pressure will likely build in, potentially forcing Chantal westwards into the Florida or Southeast U.S. coast, with a possible Sunday landfall.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 209. Dakster:


Yes, we are in agreement...

I can't answer your question. I give up. What interests does it serve us taxpayers?


It doesn't! It serves private industry, against the tax payers. Thus my initial outrage at the implementation of such a tool.

The US is Trillions in Debt. The Blue angels Can't fly. But we can provide this new tool for the energy market? (shakes head)



(Yes Mods, this is weather related. The first post that started this regards a new tool to predict tropical weather impact on energy prices.)
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Looks like the NHC is expecting another westward shift in the models.
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Quoting 229. Levi32:
Avila still doesn't explain why he forecasts weakening between Days 4 and 5, despite showing restrengthening for a time before that.


Do you forecast strengthening? I'm not seeing anything that would weaken Chantal off the Florida coast.
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Quoting 229. Levi32:
Avila still doesn't explain why he forecasts weakening between Days 4 and 5, despite showing restrengthening for a time before that.
I was just about to say how much I love Avila's extremely in-depth discussions.
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Quoting 217. Patrap:


Starting to take shape structure is definitely improving. As we head for DMAX. The Recon may find stronger winds by then. But she has put on some weight
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.THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.
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Avila still doesn't explain why he forecasts weakening between Days 4 and 5, despite showing restrengthening for a time before that. I think that whatever the trend is in the Bahamas, weakening or strengthening, would continue beyond that point.
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Quoting 224. cruzinstephie:
Anybody get the 5 o'clock discussion yet?
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

CHANTAL PRODUCED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG ITS PATH THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WIND
GUST...68 KT...WAS REPORTED BY METEO-FRANCE AT LAMENTIN AIRPORT IN
MARTINIQUE. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE
RAGGED...THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SMALL CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS
INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 55 KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
WINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA...WHERE
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...BUT COULD ALLOW MODEST RESTRENGTHENING AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

CHANTAL CONTINUES RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
23 KNOTS...STEERED BY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND THE STEERING
CURRENTS WEAKEN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST
RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.2N 63.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 16.5N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.0N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 22.0N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 26.0N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 31.1N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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www.nhc.noaa.gov/#CHANTAL
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Quoting 224. cruzinstephie:
Anybody get the 5 o'clock discussion yet?
NM - NHC just posted:


000
WTNT43 KNHC 092104
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

CHANTAL PRODUCED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG ITS PATH THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WIND
GUST...68 KT...WAS REPORTED BY METEO-FRANCE AT LAMENTIN AIRPORT IN
MARTINIQUE. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE
RAGGED...THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SMALL CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS
INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 55 KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
WINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA...WHERE
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...BUT COULD ALLOW MODEST RESTRENGTHENING AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

CHANTAL CONTINUES RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
23 KNOTS...STEERED BY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND THE STEERING
CURRENTS WEAKEN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST
RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.2N 63.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 16.5N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.0N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 22.0N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 26.0N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 31.1N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting 163. Tazmanian:
if Chantal dont start turning soon PR may be out of the woods
is it not possible for chantel to ride up the spine or even west coast of florida with its forward speed and possibly the Northern Cuban coastline forcing Chantel to hug the coast a little longer then clear the coast?
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Anybody get the 5 o'clock discussion yet?
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216. BaltimoreBrian 4:02 PM CDT on July 09, 2013 2
More mean, major hurricanes on tap this century, study finds


A warmer, more energy available per square Meter atmosphere thats now over 400 ppm Co2 will do dat.
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Quoting 189. auburn:
Off topic but important..


The Coast Guard says it is responding to a "loss of well control event" at an oil and gas platform 74 miles southwest of Port Fourchon, La., in the Gulf of Mexico.

Energy Resources Technology Gulf of Mexico LLC reported the event, saying that a 4 mile-by-.75 mile "rainbow sheen" was visible in the gulf via flyover.

All platform personnel were evacuated safely, and the Coast Guard is working with the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement to investigate the occurence, a release said.



If they can get the oil well capped would it be better or worse if Chantal went in that direction? Sometimes churning up the water helps dissipate the oil sheen. On the other hand if they can't get the well capped, Chantal would make it impossible to do so as everyone would need to evacuate the structure. Not a good situation either way.
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Quoting 201. Mclem1:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST THE
CENTER. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING HISPANIOLA.


It will be the ugliest blobiest hurricane I have ever seen.
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Keep in mind don't focus on the line...Everyone in the cone should keep an eye on the situation.
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Quoting 208. ChrisDcat5Storm:
CHANTAL IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25
KNOTS. I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION
MOVING AT THAT SPEED.


That is old but it is moving a bit slower now.
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recon will be out there in less than three hours
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not a bigg change in track
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50 mph off S. Florida coast.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Her shape is getting better. Just needs deeper convection.

Agreed.
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Quoting 208. ChrisDcat5Storm:
CHANTAL IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25
KNOTS. I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION
MOVING AT THAT SPEED.




thats old
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Left shift.stay westward.stronger,weaker.fast,slow...wow everyone is crazy around here.
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Slight cone shift but pretty clear NHC wants to wait and see what the next few runs do.

Lets see if they keep shifting west. GFS seems to keep coming back to that re-emergence thing on various runs there may be something to it.
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Quoting 203. MechEngMet:


I think we are agreeing. My point is that this taxpayer funded tool is going to make it a bit easier for them. What interests of the taxpayers does that serve?


Yes, we are in agreement...

I can't answer your question. I give up. What interests does it serve us taxpayers?
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CHANTAL IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25
KNOTS. I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION
MOVING AT THAT SPEED.
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Just as I expected.... A shift E at the end of the forecast period.
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...CHANTAL HEADING FOR HISPANIOLA...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

5:00 PM AST Tue Jul 9
Location: 15.2°N 63.7°W
Moving: WNW at 26 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
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OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 31.1N 80.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
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New track shows a shift.

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Quoting 183. Dakster:


yes, but the energy price makers are not stupid. They already know and do it beforehand anyways.



I think we are agreeing. My point is that this taxpayer funded tool is going to make it a bit easier for them. What interests of the taxpayers does that serve?
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Tropical Storm Chantal

5:00 PM AST Tue Jul 9
Location: 15.2°N 63.7°W
Moving: WNW at 26 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph







It is slowing down now.
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST THE
CENTER. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING HISPANIOLA.
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-
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Quoting 141. GeorgiaStormz:

Her shape is getting better. Just needs deeper convection.
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No big cone shift.
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Quoting 188. 62901IL:

Elaborate.
F5 reloads the browser. (Like the refresh button.) Its command + R if you are on a mac like me.
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196. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARAHONA TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.
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Quoting SLU:
The fast trades in the Caribbean are making Chantal look more like a squall line than a TS. It may even lose its LLC at this rate.


Hey SLU! Did you get any gusty winds in St Lucia?
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Coast Guard responds to Gulf of Mexico well accident

The Coast Guard and Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement were responding Tuesday to a "loss of well control event" at Ship Shoal Block 225 Platform B, a natural gas and crude oil platform located about 74 miles southwest of Port Fourchon.

According to site assessments, natural gas is flowing from the well and there is a rainbow sheen visible on the water's surface estimated to be more than four miles wide by three-quarters of a mile long.

The Coast Guard and BSEE received a report earlier Tuesday from Energy Resources Technology Gulf of Mexico, LLC, that an oil and natural gas production platform, owned by ERT, lost well control. Work to temporarily plug the well is still going on, according to a Coast Guard official.

Two other active wells on the platform were subsequently shut-in as a safety precaution and all platform personnel were safely evacuated.

According to the Coast Guard, the BSEE Houma District staff and Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit of Morgan City are monitoring well control and pollution response efforts in ERT's Command Center in Houston.

Both BSEE and Coast Guard are also working with other federal and local agencies in response to this incident.

Check back with NOLA.com for updates on this story.
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193. txjac
Quoting 182. Luisport:
zerohedge‏@zerohedge4 min
GULF SITE POSSIBLE SHEEN IS OVER 4 MILES WIDE BY 3/4 MILE LONG


I'm not finding this anywhere ...
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 091739
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
200 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...A LITTLE STRONGER CHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 62.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Quoting 143. auburn:


Please stay on topic or take it to another blog.Thanks.


Wow, a lot of new hall monitors here I see...I know stay on topic.. I hope the big wind don't blow anywhere.....
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Quoting 188. 62901IL:

Elaborate.


NHC update pending.
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189. auburn (Mod)
Off topic but important..


The Coast Guard says it is responding to a "loss of well control event" at an oil and gas platform 74 miles southwest of Port Fourchon, La., in the Gulf of Mexico.

Energy Resources Technology Gulf of Mexico LLC reported the event, saying that a 4 mile-by-.75 mile "rainbow sheen" was visible in the gulf via flyover.

All platform personnel were evacuated safely, and the Coast Guard is working with the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement to investigate the occurence, a release said.

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Quoting 186. Dakster:
F5 time...

Elaborate.
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There was a time when everyone was talking about how wonderfully the models were all in agreement...
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F5 time...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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