Unusual Chantal Disorganized, but has 65 mph Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2013

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Unusual Tropical Storm Chantal has strengthened a bit more as it speeds west-northwestwards at 26 mph away from the the Lesser Antilles Islands. Sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 52 mph, were observed at Martinique at 10 am AST as the storm passed. However, an automated weather station at the airport measured sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 78 mph, according to an official with Meteo-France. The Associated Press reported that Chantal ripped the roofs off of several homes on neighboring Dominica. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured top winds at their 1,000' flight level of 89 mph at 12:55 pm AST. Top winds seen by the aircraft's SFMR instrument were about 65 mph, in a small area east of Chantal's center. The Hurricane Hunters have departed Chantal, and the next plane is due in the storm at 8 pm EDT. Chantal's winds are unusually high considering the storm's high central pressure of 1006 mb and disorganized appearance on satellite imagery. Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts that are robbing Chantal of moisture and energy. Visible satellite loops show the outflow boundaries of these thunderstorm downdrafts at the surface, spreading to the northwest of Chantal. Martinique Radar shows a large area of heavy rain that is not well-organized, lying mostly to the west of the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 1 pm EDT Tuesday, July 9, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 65 mph, but looked very disorganized, due to high wind shear and dry air. Dry air is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts that are robbing Chantal of moisture and energy. Outflow boundaries from these downdrafts are spreading out to the northwest of Chantal, as seen on this satellite image. Image credit: NASA.

An small-scale easterly jet creating high shear in Chantal
Chantal is not very impressive on satellite images, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. Only a small amount of upper-level outflow is visible. The reason for Chantal's rather disorganized appearance can be found by looking at this morning's balloon sounding from Guadaloupe. This island was just northwest of the center of Chantal when the balloon was launched at 8 am EDT. The sounding showed typical easterly trade winds at the surface of 12 knots (14 mph.) However, the winds rose quickly aloft, with a jet of easterly winds of 35 - 53 knots between 800 - 600 mb (about 7,000 - 15,000'.) But, by the time the ballon hit 500 mb (18,000'), the winds had died down to 15 knots. A change of wind speed from 12 knots to 53 knots and back down to 15 knots from the surface to 500 mb is a tremendous amount of wind shear, which will make it very difficult for a tropical storm to keep the surface center aligned with the upper level center. The traditional measure of wind shear, the difference in wind between 200 mb and 850 mb, was 44 knots in this morning's Guadaloupe sounding, but was a much higher 56 knots from 200 mb to 700 mb. The powerful easterly wind jet was not apparent at any of the other balloon soundings this morning at adjacent islands (Barbados, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin), and demonstrates that there is a lot going on the atmosphere at small scales we cannot see which makes intensity forecasting of tropical cyclones very challenging. Thanks go to Jason Dunion of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division for pointing out this morning's interesting Guadaloupe sounding.

Forecast for Chantal
Chantal will have difficulty intensifying much more before hitting Hispaniola on Wednesday afternoon. In their 11 am EDT wind probability forecast, NHC gave Chantal a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the high wind shear from the strong mid-level easterly jet discussed above, plus the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process. Interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola and high wind shear may be able to destroy Chantal by Thursday. The 2 pm EDT Tuesday wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model calls for shear to rise to the high range, 20 - 35 knots, Tuesday night through Friday. On Saturday, when Chantal is expected to be in the Bahamas, moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted. If Chantal survives until Saturday, it will then have the opportunity to re-strengthen. The latest 12Z run of the European model (ECMWF) dissipates Chantal as it crosses Hispaniola. The 12Z run of the American GFS model has Chantal barely surviving.

Chantal's fast west-northwest forward speed of 26 mph will slow to 20 mph by Wednesday morning and then 10 mph by Thursday night, as the storm "feels" the presence of a trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast. This trough will steer Chantal to the northwest and then north-northwest across Hispaniola and into the Bahamas. The trough of low pressure pulling Chantal northwards is expected to lift out the the northeast over the weekend, leaving Chantal behind off the coast of Florida. High pressure will likely build in, potentially forcing Chantal westwards into the Florida or Southeast U.S. coast, with a possible Sunday landfall.

Jeff Masters

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History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.

5


HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS



Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly. But remember this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense.

You should be able to answer the following questions before a hurricane threatens:

*
What are the Hurricane Hazards?
*
What does it mean to you?
*
What actions should you take to be prepared?

Hurricanes and Your Health and Safety


* The great majority of injuries during a hurricane are cuts caused by flying glass or other debris. Other injuries include puncture wounds resulting from exposed nails, metal, or glass, and bone fractures.
* State and local health departments may issue health advisories or recommendations particular to local conditions. If in doubt, contact your local or state health department.
* Make sure to include all essential medications -- both prescription and over the counter -- in your family's emergency disaster kit.


* Hurricanes, especially if accompanied by a tidal surge or flooding, can contaminate the public water supply. Drinking contaminated water may cause illness. You cannot assume that the water in the hurricane-affected area is safe to drink.
* In the area hit by a hurricane, water treatment plants may not be operating; even if they are, storm damage and flooding can contaminate water lines. Listen for public announcements about the safety of the municipal water supply.
* If your well has been flooded, it needs to be tested and disinfected after the storm passes and the floodwaters recede. Questions about testing should be directed to your local or state health department.

Water Safety

* Use bottled water that has not been exposed to flood waters if it is available.
* If you don't have bottled water, you should boil water to make it safe. Boiling water will kill most types of disease-causing organisms that may be present. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for boiling. Boil the water for one minute, let it cool, and store it in clean containers with covers.
* If you can't boil water, you can disinfect it using household bleach. Bleach will kill some, but not all, types of disease-causing organisms that may be in the water. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for disinfection. Add 1/8 teaspoon (or 8 drops) of regular, unscented, liquid household bleach for each gallon of water, stir it well and let it stand for 30 minutes before you use it. Store disinfected water in clean containers with covers.
* If you have a well that has been flooded, the water should be tested and disinfected after flood waters recede. If you suspect that your well may be contaminated, contact your local or state health department or agriculture extension agent for specific advice.

Food Safety

* Do not eat any food that may have come into contact with flood water.
* Discard any food that is not in a waterproof container if there is any chance that it has come into contact with flood water. Food containers that are not waterproof include those with screw-caps, snap lids, pull tops, and crimped caps. Also, discard cardboard juice/milk/baby formula boxes and home canned foods if they have come in contact with flood water, because they cannot be effectively cleaned and sanitized.
* Inspect canned foods and discard any food in damaged cans. Can damage is shown by swelling; leakage; punctures; holes; fractures; extensive deep rusting; or crushing/denting severe enough to prevent normal stacking or opening with a manual, wheel-type can opener.
* Undamaged, commercially prepared foods in all-metal cans and retort pouches (for example, flexible, shelf-stable juice or seafood pouches) can be saved if you do the following:
o Remove the labels, if they are the removable kind, since they can harbor dirt and bacteria.
o Thoroughly wash the cans or retort pouches with soap and water, using hot water if it is available.
o Brush or wipe away any dirt or silt.
o Rinse the cans or retort pouches with water that is safe for drinking, if available, since dirt or residual soap will reduce the effectiveness of chlorine sanitation.
o Then, sanitize them by immersion in one of the two following ways:
+ place in water and allow the water to come to a boil and continue boiling for 2 minutes, or
+ place in a freshly-made solution consisting of 1 tablespoon of unscented liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available) for 15 minutes.
* Air dry cans or retort pouches for a minimum of 1 hour before opening or storing.
* If the labels were removable, then re-label your cans or retort pouches, including the expiration date (if available), with a marker.
* Food in reconditioned cans or retort pouches should be used as soon as possible, thereafter.
* Any concentrated baby formula in reconditioned, all-metal containers must be diluted with clean, drinking water.
* Thoroughly wash metal pans, ceramic dishes, and utensils (including can openers) with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize them by boiling in clean water or immersing them for 15 minutes in a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available).
* Thoroughly wash countertops with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize by applying a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available). Allow to air dry.

Frozen and Refrigerated Foods

* If you will be without power for a long period:
o ask friends to store your frozen foods in their freezers if they have electricity;
o see if freezer space is available in a store, church, school, or commercial freezer that has electrical service; or
o use dry ice, if available. Twenty-five pounds of dry ice will keep a ten-cubic-foot freezer below freezing for 3-4 days. Use care when handling dry ice, and wear dry, heavy gloves to avoid injury.
* Your refrigerator will keep foods cool for about four hours without power if it is unopened. Add block or dry ice to your refrigerator if the electricity will be off longer than four hours.
* Thawed food can usually be eaten if it is still "refrigerator cold," or re-frozen if it still contains ice crystals.
* To be safe, remember, "When in doubt, throw it out." Discard any food that has been at room temperature for two hours or more, and any food that has an unusual odor, color, or texture.

Sanitation and Hygiene

It is critical for you to remember to practice basic hygiene during the emergency period. Always wash your hands with soap and water that has been boiled or disinfected:

* before preparing or eating
* after toilet use
* after participating in cleanup activities; and
* after handling articles contaminated with floodwater or sewage.

If there is flooding along with a hurricane, the waters may contain fecal material from overflowing sewage systems and agricultural and industrial waste. Although skin contact with floodwater does not, by itself, pose a serious health risk, there is risk of disease from eating or drinking anything contaminated with floodwater.

If you have any open cuts or sores that will be exposed to floodwater, keep them as clean as possible by washing them with soap and applying an antibiotic ointment to discourage infection. If a wound develops redness, swelling, or drainage, seek immediate medical attention.

Do not allow children to play in floodwater areas. Wash children's hands frequently (always before meals), and do not allow children to play with floodwater-contaminated toys that have not been disinfected. You can disinfect toys using a solution of one cup of bleach in five gallons of water.

Immunizations

Outbreaks of communicable diseases after hurricanes are unusual. However, the rates of diseases that were present before a hurricane may increase because of a lack of sanitation or overcrowding in shelters. Increases in infectious diseases that were not present before the hurricane are not a problem, so mass vaccination programs are unnecessary.

If you have wounds, you should be evaluated for a tetanus immunization, just as you would at any other time of injury. If you receive a puncture wound or a wound contaminated with feces, soil, or saliva, have a doctor or health department determine whether a tetanus booster is necessary based on individual records.

Specific recommendations for vaccinations should be made on a case-by-case basis, or as determined by local and state health departments.

Mosquitoes

Rain and flooding in a hurricane area may lead to an increase in mosquitoes. Mosquitoes are most active at sunrise and sunset. In most cases, the mosquitoes will be pests but will not carry communicable diseases. It is unlikely that diseases which were not present in the area prior to the hurricane would be of concern. Local, state, and federal public health authorities will be actively working to control the spread of any mosquito-borne diseases.

To protect yourself from mosquitoes, use screens on dwellings, and wear clothes with long sleeves and long pants. Insect repellents that contain DEET are very effective. Be sure to read all instructions before using DEET. Care must be taken when using DEET on small children. Products containing DEET are available from stores and through local and state health departments.

To control mosquito populations, drain all standing water left in open containers outside your home.

Mental Health

The days and weeks after a hurricane are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Hurricane

SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a Major Disaster for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Coping after a Hurricane Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster �second hand� through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.

Contact local faith-based organizations, voluntary agencies, or professional counselors for counseling. Additionally, FEMA and state and local governments of the affected area may provide crisis counseling assistance.

Minimize this emotional and traumatic experience by being prepared, not scared and therefore you and your family will stay in control and survive a major hurricane.

SIGNS OF HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plans.

Click for New Orleans, Louisiana ForecastClick for New Orleans, Louisiana Forecast
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...keeping his gate dry.

: )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting 870. nrtiwlnvragn:
RADAR FIX PSBL CENTER 14.9N 65.25W. POOR RADAR PRESENTATION, MET ACCURACY 10NM

Link


Yeah, as I just pointed out, that would agree with the assumption that the HH passed by the CoC on the north side, and it means the storm has actually taken a significant southerly wobble by about 0.3 degrees since the 5pm advisory. If this verifies, it means the 8pm advisory is garbage.
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At 00:17:30Z (last observation), the observation was 200 miles (322 km) to the S (179°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 00:18Z
Date: July 10, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10

00:17:30Z 15.517N 66.017W 843.0 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,597 meters
(~ 5,240 feet) 1012.3 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 71° at 15 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 17.2 mph) 17.3°C
(~ 63.1°F) 16.0°C
(~ 60.8°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.7 knots (~ 22.6 mph)
131.2%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
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Quoting 852. Hurricane1956:
Don't see any reasoning for changing the cone South and West?,the Storm is right on track on the HC tracking points.

look again if what I'm thinking is correct the LLCOC is actually ( now this is just what I think not confirmed yet) is somewhere near 14.9N 65.1W which my friend is about a full degree S and 0.1 degree W of the next forecast point if you are tracking via the satellite floaters

Quoting 858. weatherlover94:


Not exactly....its moving more west than north right now

yep

Quoting 860. Stormchaser121:

I think they will. Or the models at least will.

yep if the models do then eventually the cone will too


according to new recon data they may find the center where I have my plots
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
Quoting 870. nrtiwlnvragn:
RADAR FIX PSBL CENTER 14.9N 65.25W. POOR RADAR PRESENTATION, MET ACCURACY 10NM

Link


I was think 15N so that looks about right
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Miami
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range 248 NMI



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Quoting 842. wunderkidcayman:


yeah cone and models shift will shift S and W



Based on what? The National Hurricane Center has trained meteorologists, and people who consult the top experts to determine the general direction of a system. Yes the National Hurricane may be off fifty miles to the right or left but not 200+ miles. Until you have reasonable evidence you will only be subjected to critism on this blog. Chances are Chantel will dissipate over Haiti and pull an Ernesto.
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Decouple?
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Quoting 873. GTstormChaserCaleb:
He was on here earlier, posted an image, and may have updated his blog and left.


That good to know - glad he is ok.

What is the latest track thought process on Chantal? I see the cone shifted ever so slightly to the east again.
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Quoting 843. MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like they missed the circulation to the north...either that, or there just isn't a circulation anymore. Futhermore, winds in the northeast quadrant haven't exceeded tropical depression force.



I think they missed it to the north, based on the wind barbs direction.

Also, they may have had a bad approach angle for the cell with max winds. Give it time, this is only the first pass, after all.

One thing to notice, if they did in fact miss the center to the north, then that would imply the actual "n" coordinate is less than 15n.
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875. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 856. floridaT:
wheres keeper


Hes around,lots of flooding up his way.
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Quoting 871. moonlightcowboy:


:) Better alert that low/mid-level easterly flow then! don't see any brakes except for that ULL.
Ditto
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Quoting 869. Dakster:


Probably flooded out, since he lives in Toronto.
He was on here earlier, posted an image, and may have updated his blog and left.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8429
Quoting 868. MiamiHurricanes09:
Well...

Quoting 868. MiamiHurricanes09:
Well...

Hmm
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Quoting 865. scott39:
Chantal will have to put the breaks on very soon, so it can make the turn over Hispaniola.


:) Better alert that low/mid-level easterly flow then! don't see any brakes except for that ULL.
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RADAR FIX PSBL CENTER 14.9N 65.25W. POOR RADAR PRESENTATION, MET ACCURACY 10NM

Link
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Quoting 856. floridaT:
wheres keeper


Probably flooded out, since he lives in Toronto.
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Well...

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting 859. Patrap:

Hurricane Preparation 2013



Yup, have a plan! Have a Plan B even! Sometimes things don't always work out the way we think they might with disaster looming.
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866. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TY 07W

2013JUL09 233200
CI 6.8
Dvorak Intensity: 6.7 (Initial) 6.7 (Adjusted) 6.7 (Raw)
EYE
21.1N 135.7E
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Chantal will have to put the breaks on very soon, so it can make the turn over Hispaniola.
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864. FOREX
Quoting 818. JRRP:


these models bogus now.
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Quoting 800. Tazmanian:




ok poof you go
Thnk goodness
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If Chantal is going to follow the track script NHC has laid out for her, the TS Warnings in S Fl (if any) will be needed Thursday evening. Friday morning will not conform to the NHC timeframes for a watch.

Of course, if the storm is fizzling, or moving more northerly than currently forcast, they might hold off, but that remains to be seen.
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Quoting 843. MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like they missed the circulation to the north...either that, or there just isn't a circulation anymore. Futhermore, winds in the northeast quadrant haven't exceeded tropical depression force.


I strongly believe they missed it to the N

Quoting 848. weatherlover94:


Is that for the short term , long term or both ?

honestly IMHO both

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
Quoting 842. wunderkidcayman:


yeah cone and models shift will shift S and W

I think they will. Or the models at least will.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Hurricane Preparation 2013

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.








Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com
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Quoting 852. Hurricane1956:
Don't see any reasoning for changing the cone South and West?,the Storm is right on track on the HC tracking points.


Not exactly....its moving more west than north right now
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Quoting 818. JRRP:


Isaac flashback...
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wheres keeper
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Quoting 851. FIUStormChaser:
No one has said RIP Chantel yet?



Many have.
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The best part about wunderground is the sharing MLC, thanx.

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fact check before you post...
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Quoting 842. wunderkidcayman:


yeah cone and models shift will shift S and W
Don't see any reasoning for changing the cone South and West?,the Storm is right on track on the HC tracking points.
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No one has said RIP Chantel yet?

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I'ma tell you all something else. And, me and him don't always square up on political and AGW issues, and I sure won't be joining any of those conversations this year either now. But, do tell me one other person here that promotes awareness and preparedness more than Pat? Name one, if you can! Can't, cause no one else does, not on the scale that needs to be demonstrated by even the main blog. If there were more awareness and preparedness there'd be lots less injury and loss of life. And, isn't that really what we should all be here for?

KUDOS, Pat, for that! Thank you! Keep it coming!
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Quoting 842. wunderkidcayman:


yeah cone and models shift will shift S and W


Is that for the short term , long term or both ?
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Quoting 843. MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like they missed the circulation to the north...either that, or there just isn't a circulation anymore. Futhermore, winds in the northeast quadrant haven't exceeded tropical depression force.




this is likey a open wave now if they dont find some in soon
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At 00:07:30Z (last observation), the observation was 223 miles (359 km) to the S (170°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 00:08Z
Date: July 9, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09

00:07:30Z 15.233N 65.483W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,596 meters
(~ 5,236 feet) 1012.1 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 100° at 9 knots
(From the E at ~ 10.3 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 13.8°C
(~ 56.8°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 15.3 knots (~ 17.6 mph)
170.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
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am not seeing march in a way of a W wind on the recon page
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This is exactly why you can never judge a storm based on satellite alone. It may not look strong, but HH data is what indicated that this is a strong tropical storm earlier.
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Looks like they missed the circulation to the north...either that, or there just isn't a circulation anymore. Futhermore, winds in the northeast quadrant haven't exceeded tropical depression force.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting 818. JRRP:


yeah cone and models shift will shift S and W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
Quoting 839. GeoffreyWPB:


He was perma-band under his old handle. I guess the mods do not care he is back under a new name. Oh well, just put him on ignore.



i did
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Quoting 836. scott39:
Chantal looks ragged right now due to 15 to 20knts of NWLY wind shear.


No it looks bad because of trade winds killing the LLC
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Quoting 817. Tazmanian:



or if the mods do there job and get the ban hammer out this troll would be gone


He was perma-banned under his old handle. I guess the mods do not care he is back under a new name. Oh well, just put him on ignore.
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Quoting 784. weatherlover94:
for the first time since I been on here I reported and ignored somebody

Congratulations.
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Quoting 824. Tazmanian:
i see a yellow dot



Come to papa
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Chantal looks ragged right now due to 15 to 20knts of NWLY wind shear.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.