Unusual Chantal Disorganized, but has 65 mph Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2013

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Unusual Tropical Storm Chantal has strengthened a bit more as it speeds west-northwestwards at 26 mph away from the the Lesser Antilles Islands. Sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 52 mph, were observed at Martinique at 10 am AST as the storm passed. However, an automated weather station at the airport measured sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 78 mph, according to an official with Meteo-France. The Associated Press reported that Chantal ripped the roofs off of several homes on neighboring Dominica. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured top winds at their 1,000' flight level of 89 mph at 12:55 pm AST. Top winds seen by the aircraft's SFMR instrument were about 65 mph, in a small area east of Chantal's center. The Hurricane Hunters have departed Chantal, and the next plane is due in the storm at 8 pm EDT. Chantal's winds are unusually high considering the storm's high central pressure of 1006 mb and disorganized appearance on satellite imagery. Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts that are robbing Chantal of moisture and energy. Visible satellite loops show the outflow boundaries of these thunderstorm downdrafts at the surface, spreading to the northwest of Chantal. Martinique Radar shows a large area of heavy rain that is not well-organized, lying mostly to the west of the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 1 pm EDT Tuesday, July 9, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 65 mph, but looked very disorganized, due to high wind shear and dry air. Dry air is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts that are robbing Chantal of moisture and energy. Outflow boundaries from these downdrafts are spreading out to the northwest of Chantal, as seen on this satellite image. Image credit: NASA.

An small-scale easterly jet creating high shear in Chantal
Chantal is not very impressive on satellite images, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. Only a small amount of upper-level outflow is visible. The reason for Chantal's rather disorganized appearance can be found by looking at this morning's balloon sounding from Guadaloupe. This island was just northwest of the center of Chantal when the balloon was launched at 8 am EDT. The sounding showed typical easterly trade winds at the surface of 12 knots (14 mph.) However, the winds rose quickly aloft, with a jet of easterly winds of 35 - 53 knots between 800 - 600 mb (about 7,000 - 15,000'.) But, by the time the ballon hit 500 mb (18,000'), the winds had died down to 15 knots. A change of wind speed from 12 knots to 53 knots and back down to 15 knots from the surface to 500 mb is a tremendous amount of wind shear, which will make it very difficult for a tropical storm to keep the surface center aligned with the upper level center. The traditional measure of wind shear, the difference in wind between 200 mb and 850 mb, was 44 knots in this morning's Guadaloupe sounding, but was a much higher 56 knots from 200 mb to 700 mb. The powerful easterly wind jet was not apparent at any of the other balloon soundings this morning at adjacent islands (Barbados, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin), and demonstrates that there is a lot going on the atmosphere at small scales we cannot see which makes intensity forecasting of tropical cyclones very challenging. Thanks go to Jason Dunion of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division for pointing out this morning's interesting Guadaloupe sounding.

Forecast for Chantal
Chantal will have difficulty intensifying much more before hitting Hispaniola on Wednesday afternoon. In their 11 am EDT wind probability forecast, NHC gave Chantal a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the high wind shear from the strong mid-level easterly jet discussed above, plus the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process. Interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola and high wind shear may be able to destroy Chantal by Thursday. The 2 pm EDT Tuesday wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model calls for shear to rise to the high range, 20 - 35 knots, Tuesday night through Friday. On Saturday, when Chantal is expected to be in the Bahamas, moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted. If Chantal survives until Saturday, it will then have the opportunity to re-strengthen. The latest 12Z run of the European model (ECMWF) dissipates Chantal as it crosses Hispaniola. The 12Z run of the American GFS model has Chantal barely surviving.

Chantal's fast west-northwest forward speed of 26 mph will slow to 20 mph by Wednesday morning and then 10 mph by Thursday night, as the storm "feels" the presence of a trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast. This trough will steer Chantal to the northwest and then north-northwest across Hispaniola and into the Bahamas. The trough of low pressure pulling Chantal northwards is expected to lift out the the northeast over the weekend, leaving Chantal behind off the coast of Florida. High pressure will likely build in, potentially forcing Chantal westwards into the Florida or Southeast U.S. coast, with a possible Sunday landfall.

Jeff Masters

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1686. 7544
is that a new ull south of fla anyone?????
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That's the CMC for ya.Always foreseeing doom.If that happened Savannah would be in series trouble.GFS only shows a depression so far.
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1684. hydrus
Quoting 1680. RTSplayer:
Tme for bed. I'll watch this thing tomorrow. It will be closer to land then and more interesting, I guess.

good night everyone. Play safe.
Nite RT....zzzzz
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1683. L1990
i wonder with the new movement farther west if it will affect the next model runs
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1682. hydrus
Quoting 1671. KoritheMan:


It's frustrating how much faith people into the Euro when it comes to cyclogenesis. It might be hands down the best model overall, especially at predicting upper air patterns, but for cyclogenesis, it's flat out horrible.
Models are weird..The CMC does generate way to many cyclones that never form, but I have noticed it does quite well with the eventual track..This is me harmless opinion..:)
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Quoting 1670. L1990:
westward she blows

yep
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11048
Tme for bed. I'll watch this thing tomorrow. It will be closer to land then and more interesting, I guess.

good night everyone. Play safe.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1679. FOREX
Quoting 1672. Hurrihistory:
South of D.R. to where? The mountains of Haiti and Eastern Cuba are just as bad.


If it survives, Western Cuba then north into the Gulf I guess.
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Quoting 1669. washingtonian115:
Lol.Models aren't being posted.So perhaps nothing interesting...
132 hrs.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
1677. Gearsts
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1676. hydrus
Chantal may bite the dust...UKMET keeps her.

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Quoting 1663. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The CMC has been pretty consistent from the start with Chantal probably the most consistent with all of the models in showing strengthening after it pops off the coast of Hispaniola so I am interested to see what it shows with tonight's run.


Ya, props to it's consistency the last few days. It's running now so it should be interesting.
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Quoting 1654. MississippiWx:


And it's extremely weird. I wouldn't read it if I were you, Drak. :-) Brian is a little cuckoo.


Of course it's weird! It's taken from the Weird Sisters in Macbeth.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting 1669. washingtonian115:
Lol.Models aren't being posted.So perhaps nothing interesting...



alright..gnite
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Quoting 1651. FOREX:


gonna go south of DR.
South of D.R. to where? The mountains of Haiti and Eastern Cuba are just as bad.
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Quoting 1665. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Considering the Euro never showed a storm to begin with. I laugh at your remark, king Euro aha yeah right. :)


It's frustrating how much faith people into the Euro when it comes to cyclogenesis. It might be hands down the best model overall, especially at predicting upper air patterns, but for cyclogenesis, it's flat out horrible.
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1670. L1990
westward she blows
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Lol.Models aren't being posted.So perhaps nothing interesting...
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Quoting 1629. Bluestorm5:
Forecast #5 for Chantal from me.



trHUrrIXC5MMX (Max)'s reaction:

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Quoting 1621. Drakoen:
If it looks this disheveled now, wait till it hits the terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba combined with unfavorable upper level winds, the reason why some models depict an open wave.


Drak, seems we see eye to eye on Chantal...... may not even be closed off now......

Chantal is on life support, and much worse conditions ahead..... The official forecast has Chantal maintaining Tropical Storm status just short of landfall on the CONUS...... I just don't see it!

Obviously the EXACT track may be the determining factor, but we have seen much more organized storms get ripped to shreds by Hispaniola..... in Chantal's current state, seems a daunting task!
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Quoting 1649. moonlightcowboy:


SJ? Heck, he ain't right, maybe slightly afflicted. '-) But, he does know how to read a sfc map! And, if I had to fight the devil himself, I'd want John on my side! :-)


I still have SJ's links bookmarked.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
Quoting 1660. Camille33:
Chantal is finished and is done according to the goofus and nothing is forming near africa now.Flip-flop,go king Euro!!!
Considering the Euro never showed a storm to begin with. I laugh at your remark, king Euro aha yeah right. :)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
1664. hydrus
Quoting 1652. whitewabit:
I was in Biloxi during Camille and Mobile was hit hard by the surge .. many home were built right on the water ..
Camille was vicious...I remember reading about her in the 70,s thinking that the record storm surge at around 24 ft would never be broken..Then K.
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Quoting 1646. Slamguitar:


Last night's 0Z CMC? Haha
The CMC has been pretty consistent from the start with Chantal probably the most consistent with all of the models in showing strengthening after it pops off the coast of Hispaniola so I am interested to see what it shows with tonight's run.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Quoting 1652. whitewabit:
I was in Biloxi during Camille and Mobile was hit hard by the surge .. many home were built right on the water ..

Since Fredrick there are even more now and what Katrina took out where built back.... It could be very bad here if we have a Major Storm here

Taco :o)
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1661. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TYPHOON HUANING
11:00 AM PhST July 10 2013
================================================= =

Typhoon"SOULIK" is expected to enter the Philippines Area of Responsibility before noon, today and be named "HUANING"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Huaning [SOULIK] (948 hPa) located at 21.2N 135.5E or 1240 km east of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gustiness up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Additional Information
========================
Typhoon "Huaning" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring rains over western section of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the public weather forecast at 5PM and next bulletin will be issued at 11PM today.
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Chantal is finished and is done according to the goofus and nothing is forming near africa now.Flip-flop,go king Euro!!!
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Observations from this buoy should be most interesting. It's located just a little to the west of Chantal.

Doubt it finds anything.
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I'm convinced there actually is some sort of competing circulation near 17n 67w. It is apparent both on unenhanced channel 4 and the radar. So I think the decoupled theory is validated.

It looks like Chantal will have to totally rebuild itself from scrap now.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Patrap Chantal sure looks weak at the end of that animation.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting 1653. BaltimoreBrian:
Bluestorm if Chantal takes the track you give it and if a circulation center survives to make the trek (and I think the odds are against that) I think Chantal would be stronger than you think, 70/75 mph


hey, check my graph...

there is something about that...
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I say Chantal center is near 14.8N 66.3W moving W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11048
Quoting 1643. BaltimoreBrian:
It's good to see you Drakoen. There's a mention of you in one of my blog comments.


And it's extremely weird. I wouldn't read it if I were you, Drak. :-) Brian is a little cuckoo.
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Bluestorm if Chantal takes the track you give it and if a circulation center survives to make the trek (and I think the odds are against that) I think Chantal would be stronger than you think, 70/75 mph
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
1652. whitewabit (Mod)
I was in Biloxi during Camille and Mobile was hit hard by the surge .. many home were built right on the water ..
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1651. FOREX
Quoting 1645. Hurrihistory:
Sorry everyone, but you can kiss what was once Chantal goodbye. Looks to me like nothing more then an open wave. This system just had too many factors playing against it. So R.I.P. Tropical Cyclone Chantal. A disorganized system moving at such a high rate of speed (29-MPH) through the Eastern Caribbean with it's sights set on the high mountains of D.R. with an Upper Level Low's strong westerly winds waiting for it on the other side does not stand a chance!


gonna go south of DR.
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Quoting 1642. hydrus:
Some Alabamy storms..




1893 Oct 2nd, 90mph from the S.W
1901 Aug 15th, 80mph from the SSW
1906 a 10 ft s.s bar 28.50 sept 27th 110mph winds from the SSE .
1911 Aug 11th, 80mph from the S.E
1912 sept14th, storm surge 4.4ft 75mph from the south
1916 July 6th,bar 28.92 s.s 11.6ft with 80mph from the south winds gusts to 106mph.7 killed & reports of heavy damage from Mobile to Pensacola,Florida.
1916 Oct 18th, 115mph from the SSW just east
1926 sept 20th,110mph from the ESE just S.W & water was taken out of mobile bay with low of 10.9 ft below normal. Newspaper headline
1932 Sept 1st 80mph from the S.E
1950 Aug 31st,Baker a cat 1,85mph from the south..
1969 even though camille was well to the west storm surge was still 10 ft here
1979 Frederic sept 12th 132 mph from the SSE heavy damage to mobile press 27.94 storm surge 12 ft.
1985 Sept 2nd Hurricane Elena hits south with 120mph winds from the ESE
1995 Aug 3rd Hurricane Erin hits with 80mph winds from the S.E
1997 July 19th,Danny stalled 30 miles to south with 80mph from the WSW winds bar 29.06 30 inches of rain
2004 ,sept 16th very early morning,Hurricane Ivan just East with 130mph winds moving NNE over Eastern Alabama with Ivan having a wind field approx 85 miles out.Moderate to heavy damage here from primarilly North & west winds. Ivan radar at landfall.
2005 Aug 29th,95mph from the south , Hurricane Katrina passes well west but large hurricane force wind field extends into Mobile.



Good info, thanks.
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Quoting 1635. hurricanejunky:


SJ sighting!


SJ? Heck, he ain't right, maybe slightly afflicted. '-) But, he does know how to read a sfc map! And, if I had to fight the devil himself, I'd want John on my side! :-)
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1648. hydrus
Quoting 1629. Bluestorm5:
Forecast #5 for Chantal from me.

Interesting.
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1647. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127567
Quoting 1629. Bluestorm5:
Forecast #5 for Chantal from me.



Last night's 0Z CMC? Haha
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Sorry everyone, but you can kiss what was once Chantal goodbye. Looks to me like nothing more then an open wave. This system just had too many factors playing against it. So R.I.P. Tropical Cyclone Chantal. A disorganized system moving at such a high rate of speed (29-MPH) through the Eastern Caribbean with it's sights set on the high mountains of D.R. with an Upper Level Low's strong westerly winds waiting for it on the other side does not stand a chance!
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Center too far south of the San Juan radar. Darn.
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It's good to see you Drakoen. There's a mention of you in one of my blog comments.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
1642. hydrus
Some Alabamy storms..




1893 Oct 2nd, 90mph from the S.W
1901 Aug 15th, 80mph from the SSW
1906 a 10 ft s.s bar 28.50 sept 27th 110mph winds from the SSE .
1911 Aug 11th, 80mph from the S.E
1912 sept14th, storm surge 4.4ft 75mph from the south
1916 July 6th,bar 28.92 s.s 11.6ft with 80mph from the south winds gusts to 106mph.7 killed & reports of heavy damage from Mobile to Pensacola,Florida.
1916 Oct 18th, 115mph from the SSW just east
1926 sept 20th,110mph from the ESE just S.W & water was taken out of mobile bay with low of 10.9 ft below normal. Newspaper headline
1932 Sept 1st 80mph from the S.E
1950 Aug 31st,Baker a cat 1,85mph from the south..
1969 even though camille was well to the west storm surge was still 10 ft here
1979 Frederic sept 12th 132 mph from the SSE heavy damage to mobile press 27.94 storm surge 12 ft.
1985 Sept 2nd Hurricane Elena hits south with 120mph winds from the ESE
1995 Aug 3rd Hurricane Erin hits with 80mph winds from the S.E
1997 July 19th,Danny stalled 30 miles to south with 80mph from the WSW winds bar 29.06 30 inches of rain
2004 ,sept 16th very early morning,Hurricane Ivan just East with 130mph winds moving NNE over Eastern Alabama with Ivan having a wind field approx 85 miles out.Moderate to heavy damage here from primarilly North & west winds. Ivan radar at landfall.
2005 Aug 29th,95mph from the south , Hurricane Katrina passes well west but large hurricane force wind field extends into Mobile.

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1641. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 1639. BaltimoreBrian:
Caicos that's interesting. Venezuela used to be 3rd behind Canada and Mexico. I hadn't realized Saudi Arabia had gone up in the rankings.


I read it was 9% of US oil imports .. not sure how up to date the article was though ..
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1640. Drakoen
Quoting 1630. hurricaneSOFLA:



Whatever center that exists appears to be exactly where the NHC has it.
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Caicos that's interesting. Venezuela used to be 3rd behind Canada and Mexico. I hadn't realized Saudi Arabia had gone up in the rankings.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting 1625. washingtonian115:
Taco every time you mention your name I get a craven for one.Lol.

Anywho The GFS doesn't look excited so far.
BLAHAHAHA
thank you :o)
But as for the GFS I have ?????? because if they are using what the NHC put into it, I would still wait for more info just saying :o)

Just to let you know they are open until Midnite Just saying :O)


Taco :o)
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1637. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting 1622. hydrus:
I would want to know too....Storms love Mobile. I have never been there, but I have seen it whacked 78 times.


I've been to Mobile a couple times. It's a beautiful place.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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