Tropical Storm Chantal: a Likely Harbinger of an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2013

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Tropical Storm Chantal is speeding westwards at 26 mph towards a Tuesday encounter with the Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show that Chantal has plenty of spin, with several well-developed low-level spiral bands that have gradually increased their heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. However, Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The heavy thunderstorm activity near Chantal's center is rather thin, and there are virtually no heavy thunderstorms on the storm's north side, where upper-level northwesterly winds are creating light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and driving dry air into the storm. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, though, at 27.5 - 28°C. There have not been any hurricane hunter missions into Chantal yet, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft deployed to St. Croix on Sunday, and is scheduled to investigate Chantal on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 10 am EDT Monday, July 8, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Levi Denham, a WC-130J Hercules aircraft weather reconnaissance loadmaster assigned to the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron (the Hurricane Hunters), performs pre-engine start-up inspections in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, on Sept. 16, 2010. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Manuel J. Martinez, U.S. Air Force. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for pointing out this photo.

Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that Chantal will experience low to moderate shear through Tuesday afternoon as it heads west-northwest at 25 mph towards Hispaniola. With ocean temperatures expected to warm to 28°C during that time, Chantal has the potential to intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process, and I don't see Chantal making it to hurricane strength before interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This interaction may be able to destroy the storm, since wind shear is also expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Tuesday night through Thursday. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.


Figure 3. There have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one such tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and unnamed tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001.) Image credit: NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Chantal: an uncommon early-season Cape Verde-type tropical storm
Formation of a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles Islands in early July from an African tropical wave is an uncommon occurrence. Since Atlantic hurricane records began in 1851, there have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles, an average of one early-season tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001 that did not become named storms.)

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

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As to Chantal, the forward speed is preventing further organization so we will have to see what happens over the next 48. Post-Haiti may well be the best chance she has to reach high-grade tropical storm status.

Can't help but notice on the big-pic loops that that the three areas of interest, in order from East to West; the African wave, Chantal, and the ULL in the Bahamas are "moving around" the current ridge in the the Central Atlantic...........Follow the ULL and Chantel is headed in that general direction.
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3181. Kyon5
Recon just measured winds over 70mph.
Time: 11:48:30Z
Coordinates: 14.3833N 60.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 864.9 mb (~ 25.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,358 meters (~ 4,455 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.6 mb (~ 29.87 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 80° at 64 knots (From the E at ~ 73.6 mph)
Air Temp: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Dew Pt: 14.4°C (~ 57.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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3180. hydrus
Quoting 3133. Grothar:



Many of the models have been shifting Chantal west much earlier than previous models. The GFS solution has been moving the turn further South on each run

If Chantel remains disorganized, she get as far west as Eastern Cuba..Which would change things considerably.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21173
Good Morning all! I wouldn't mind if Chantal hit FL. It's about time we get a non-june storm to hit us. The last was Bonne in 2010. Not that we need the rain, but still fun nevertheless to be in a TS.
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WOW
Quoting 3174. HurricaneAndre:
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Good morning, Good afternoon, Good evening, everyone.
A very foggy 75 degrees this morning with a 30% chance of rain and a high expected of 93.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: Omelets made from egg whites, with choice of cheeses, mushrooms, peppers and salsa, whole wheat and regular English muffins with cream cheese and jelly or lox, whole wheat or regular pancakes with fresh fruit or syrup, yogurt, fresh fruit, orange juice and fresh made coffee.
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New watch up
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Good Morning All,

Sorry NC I hope Chantal doesn't take the westerly turn through Florida. We haven't seen the sun here for a week. Major flooding in the panhandle, we don't need anymore rain.
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Quoting 3164. 69Viking:


Is Texas really that far out of Being a possibility? Even if this turns NW and heads for the Bahamas the long range models still show the ridge building back in and sending Chantal left into and possibly across Frorida. If the ridge builds in strong enough this storm could then push West across the GOM and into Texas. Not saying it will happen but there's always a chance with how dynamic weather patterns are.
I was thinking the same exact thing as you Viking,...I think that TX has been eliminated from being a "first strike" event at this point, but it could still be hit under the scenario you described.
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3172. ncstorm
The Euro takes the energy left of Chantal in SC..
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Barbados Radar:
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3170. pcola57
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Quoting 3154. GetReal:


Latest visible image indicates (imo) that after having a bad night last night, Chantal is making a come back just in time for the RECON.
This one has a good time with recon the two times it has fly she makes herself presentable in sattelites.
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Good Morning. We have had lots of "new-member" folks on in recent days that are obviously on just to troll and get folks riled up with inappropriate comments or nonsensical comments. An obvious bad sign when someone joins the Blog (keep an eye on the join date) and immediately starts making these types of comments.

Don't feed the trolls or re-quote them cause that fires them up more. Just ignore their comments and stay on topic.

We don't need a bunch of trolls hijacking the conversation during storms that threaten populated areas going into this season when lots of people come on here for important information and informed conversation.

Thanks.
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3167. LargoFl
Florida had better keep a good eye on this storm..its up to 50mph now and moving fast and the models more and more are heading it to central florida..a rainy and windy weekend perhaps?..we'll see in the next few days..we surely do NOT need this right now..a few tree's have already fallen near my area due to the heavy rainfall the last few weeks..ground is soaked even before the storm possibly comes near.
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Quoting 3152. Grothar:


And that is without coffee and breakfast. And anybody who tries to bust my chops this morning, is flirting with danger. :) I may be old and weak....never mind I did have a thought there.


Good Morning All, got my 1st cup of coffee and checking everything out.... mmmmmm long range out still looks to be showing turn to the west???? Not liking that at all.....
Now Gro you know they do not pay us to thing and as for me I was hired for just the neck down.... Just Saying

Taco :o)
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3165. GetReal



Radar indicates center is near 13.8N and 60.3W.
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Quoting 3126. CycloneOz:


There is a lot of complicated weather north and north east of this tiny system.

Personally, I think the NHC has this puppy dead to rights.

Texas casters will have to come out in force before Chantal gets north of Hispanola, because Chantal is likely to still be well within the projected cone at that point in its journey.


Is Texas really that far out of Being a possibility? Even if this turns NW and heads for the Bahamas the long range models still show the ridge building back in and sending Chantal left into and possibly across Frorida. If the ridge builds in strong enough this storm could then push West across the GOM and into Texas. Not saying it will happen but there's always a chance with how dynamic weather patterns are.
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3162. JRRP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5783
Good morning! I see Chantal still doesn't know how to slow down. Radar presentation seems good, though:
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3160. Relix
000
WTNT33 KNHC 091142
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
800 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...CHANTAL OBSERVED BY BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE RADARS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 59.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADARS FROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE INDICATE THAT AT 800 AM
AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXWIND...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND REACH PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY.T COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING CHANTAL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND REACH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting 3154. GetReal:


Latest visible image indicates (imo) that after having a bad night last night, Chantal is making a come back just in time for the RECON.
It seems Chantal is just as "groggy" as Grothar this morning...maybe one of them will get their act together! LOL.
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3158. LargoFl
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3157. ncstorm
Quoting 3150. AtHomeInTX:


Pretty much after 120 hrs. Doesn't look to make it through Hispaniola on there. Dorian headed your way that run.


whenever the GFS shows NC in long range, it never happens..LOL..so I think we are okay
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3156. zampaz
Perhaps we'll get a view of the Tropical weather from the ISS during the spacewalk today.

The Astronauts, Chris and Luke are depressurizing the airlock now.
Fortunately I have more than one monitor so I can watch the walk and follow Dr. Master's blog the same time. Three media spectaculars at the same time!
(NasaTV stream and IIS stream are different)


The Link for NasaTV (streaming now on ustream) is:

Nasa TV has narrator audio which sometimes stomps on station to ground audio, but may have informative blurbs during LOS.
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/ustream/#.U dvuAG3N7DE

The Link for ISS TV (streaming delayed until SP start) is:

Typically only has station to ground audio traffic.
Has a social stream with people from all over the world and some very well informed space geeks, along with folks looking for UFO's!
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-iss-stream
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 904
Good morning, weathergeeks! :)

No coffee yet, but a couple of quick obs.

1. Chantal has slowed, obviously butting up against the 1016mb of high pressure north of the system.
2. Motion likely to have more of a westerly component now that it has hit the strong high.
3. Slowed system has allowed better organization, layers now more symmetrical and vertically stacked. No maturity to the 200mb layers so still a burgeoning system.
4. ULL over the Bahamas has gotten a much better surface reflection at the 850mb layer.
5. Slowed system seems to be firing more convection, but is also experiencing the beginning of some upper level shear blowing tops from the CDO.

Back later when both eyes are open! ;)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
3154. GetReal


Latest visible image indicates (imo) that after having a bad night last night, Chantal is making a come back just in time for the RECON.
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3153. ncstorm
Quoting 3145. MAweatherboy1:

Pretty much, yes. You can still see the feature but it's mostly just an open wave that dissipates in the Bahamas, no strengthening is shown.

It still shows Dorian though, it's getting consistent with that.


Thanks..the GFS has been struggling with Chantal..and I assume that model run was with the new data placed in it..

however the CMC still is holding onto this storm..first one to see it as well..takes it into SC/GA..as I said yesterday, Im putting my money on the CMC

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3152. Grothar
Quoting 3146. presslord:


Well! Aren't you just a perky little ray of sunshine this morning?!


And that is without coffee and breakfast. And anybody who tries to bust my chops this morning, is flirting with danger. :) I may be old and weak....never mind I did have a thought there.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Quoting 3144. Grothar:
I hate to say it folks, but the next system to form should follow almost the same path as Chantal, but possible be stronger. It should move through the Antilles and over Hispaniola and through the Bahamas. The again, it becomes a little tricky. My current plot shows this moving into the North and South Carolina area (happy presslord). But again, that high has been moving back and forth so it is too difficult to tell this far out.
Yeah, you don't sound too sure about that!
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Quoting 3143. ncstorm:
So the 06z GFS has dropped Chantal altogether?


Pretty much after 120 hrs. Doesn't look to make it through Hispaniola on there. Dorian headed your way that run.
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3149. LargoFl
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3148. Grothar
Come on now, this has got to get your attention. Look behind Chantal.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
I see recon should reach Chantal reach Chantal in an Hour or less.
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Quoting 3144. Grothar:
I hate to say it folks, but the next system to form should follow almost the same path as Chantal, but possible be stronger. It should move through the Antilles and over Hispaniola and through the Bahamas. The again, it becomes a little tricky. My current plot shows this moving into the North and South Carolina area (happy presslord). But again, that high has been moving back and forth so it is too difficult to tell this far out.


Well! Aren't you just a perky little ray of sunshine this morning?!
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Quoting 3143. ncstorm:
So the 06z GFS has dropped Chantal altogether?

Pretty much, yes. You can still see the feature but it's mostly just an open wave that dissipates in the Bahamas, no strengthening is shown.

It still shows Dorian though, it's getting consistent with that.
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3144. Grothar
I hate to say it folks, but the next system to form should follow almost the same path as Chantal, but possible be stronger. It should move through the Antilles and over Hispaniola and through the Bahamas. The again, it becomes a little tricky. My current plot shows this moving into the North and South Carolina area (happy presslord). But again, that high has been moving back and forth so it is too difficult to tell this far out.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
3143. ncstorm
So the 06z GFS has dropped Chantal altogether?
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Quoting 3130. KoritheMan:
Enter stage right:



Looking very good as it emerge the coast.
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3141. Grothar
Quoting 3130. KoritheMan:
Enter stage right:



Kori, what are you doing up at this hour? I thought you worked the night shift on here?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
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3139. Dakster
8am mini-update here we come.
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3138. LargoFl
Quoting 3133. Grothar:



Many of the models have been shifting Chantal west much earlier than previous models. The GFS solution has been moving the turn further South on each run

wELL I usually listen to the GFS when a storm is close,floridians..its time to review your plans and supplies for the coming season if you have not done so yet..I myself am watching this one for rainfall amounts come this weekend..we here on the gulf coast have been getting heavy rainfall for the last 2 weeks,ground is saturated.lakes are full and some rivers are still at flood stage..
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3137. SLU
Quoting 3107. HurrMichaelOrl:


That sounds like the perfect weather. I may just have to retire there.

I wonder if the 54 mph gust in St. Lucia is from a stray rain band from Chantal as the storm is still a ways away from the island (and not too strong anyhow)?


Yes a squall from a rainband.
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3136. GetReal
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Quoting 3082. Grothar:


Sure your friend still live by the Galleria mall?
Mail, Gro.
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3133. Grothar
Quoting 3123. GeoffreyWPB:
Excerpt from Miami NWS Disco

* WATCHING TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL

WEATHER DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. NHC IS FORECASTING
CHANTAL TO TURN NW-N AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA, AS A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OCCURS. THIS WOULD TAKE CHANTAL TO OUR EAST ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER, THINGS CAN CHANGE SO THIS WILL OF
COURSE CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS WHAT
THE LATEST GFS 09.00Z RUN SHOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT BUILDS A RIDGE
BACK IN NORTH OF CHANTAL SUN-TUE, FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD
COURSE WITH EVEN A SLIGHT BEND SW AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THIS IS JUST ONE MODEL RUN, BUT THIS JUST SHOWS THAT EVERYONE
IN FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON
CHANTAL OVER THE COMING DAYS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR CHANTAL
TO WEAKEN ALL TOGETHER WHILE CROSSING HISPANIOLA, THOUGH THIS IS
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANTAL AS AN OPEN
WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS, BUT THIS MODEL DIDN`T INITIALIZE
CHANTAL WELL.

AND WHILE WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING CHANTAL INTO THIS WEEKEND,
ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AS PER THE GFS. ACTIVE TIMES AHEAD.



Many of the models have been shifting Chantal west much earlier than previous models. The GFS solution has been moving the turn further South on each run

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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