Tropical Storm Chantal: a Likely Harbinger of an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2013

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Tropical Storm Chantal is speeding westwards at 26 mph towards a Tuesday encounter with the Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show that Chantal has plenty of spin, with several well-developed low-level spiral bands that have gradually increased their heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. However, Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The heavy thunderstorm activity near Chantal's center is rather thin, and there are virtually no heavy thunderstorms on the storm's north side, where upper-level northwesterly winds are creating light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and driving dry air into the storm. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, though, at 27.5 - 28°C. There have not been any hurricane hunter missions into Chantal yet, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft deployed to St. Croix on Sunday, and is scheduled to investigate Chantal on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 10 am EDT Monday, July 8, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Levi Denham, a WC-130J Hercules aircraft weather reconnaissance loadmaster assigned to the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron (the Hurricane Hunters), performs pre-engine start-up inspections in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, on Sept. 16, 2010. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Manuel J. Martinez, U.S. Air Force. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for pointing out this photo.

Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that Chantal will experience low to moderate shear through Tuesday afternoon as it heads west-northwest at 25 mph towards Hispaniola. With ocean temperatures expected to warm to 28°C during that time, Chantal has the potential to intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process, and I don't see Chantal making it to hurricane strength before interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This interaction may be able to destroy the storm, since wind shear is also expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Tuesday night through Thursday. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.


Figure 3. There have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one such tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and unnamed tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001.) Image credit: NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Chantal: an uncommon early-season Cape Verde-type tropical storm
Formation of a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles Islands in early July from an African tropical wave is an uncommon occurrence. Since Atlantic hurricane records began in 1851, there have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles, an average of one early-season tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001 that did not become named storms.)

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 801. FunnelVortex:


I agree. It is way too early in the season for cat 5s.
yeah but they are not impossible remember Emily 2005.
Quoting 803. PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
A Haiti and Dominican Republic strike is imminent now....I feel like this area is always under the gun.
mmm actually the past seasons Hispaola have escape some hits since 2010 when Tomas was near they save from a direct landfall hope Chantal don`t caused a lot of destruction if it makes landfall.
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Afternoon all.

Chantal can feel free to stay away from Charleston. We are completely waterlogged and cannot handle any more significant rain.
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Notice the nice sprawl bands forming on almost all sides of the storm in the last few frames.Chantel might have some tricks up her sleeve.
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Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 18:56Z
Date: July 8, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 04
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829. Kumo
Quoting 797. Cat5hit:


Yes... No more forecasting Cat 5 hits in the gulf please.


Agreed, please forecast a slow moving tropical depression for those of us near the NW Gulf, we could use one of those. :)
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Quoting 825. hurricane23:

So confusing...can't figure out which one to follow.
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Chantal seems to have grown a little bigger in the past couple hours, though it remains a compact storm:

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Quoting 819. hurricane23:


levi for some reason i cant access ur site the models page loops wont work but everything else is ok.


Sounds like your browser's flash player is acting up. Everything's ship shape on my end. If the flash loops won't load try in a different browser and it might work. Chances are the next time you restart your computer that problem will be gone.
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yellow at 0 % why bother its a slow mover so maybe after 48hr it could change.
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Quoting 822. Slamguitar:
Recon took off, can't wait to get some data in! I need snacks...

Let's watch the Recon.
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Recon took off, can't wait to get some data in! I need snacks...
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting 763. DataNerd:


True enough I forgot that. The image was "new" but its a re upload of the same track. Thought it had been moved already. Nonetheless it will probably be moved later on tonight given the 18z suite. Its possible they wait until after we have recon data to put in but we will see.


My apologies.


Also on that note I am very curious as to what recon data will do for our suite. I want to see if that left turn becomes more pronounced or goes away.
Typical south Florida wishful thinking I see data.... Happens every year...You won't be the first, or last.
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Quoting 814. Stormchaser2007:
12z GFDL Ensembles are rather interesting.

That track late in the period would definitely bend back west and take Chantal into the Gulf.



OMG. Katrina all over again. ;-) ;-) ;-)

It's too easy.

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Quoting Levi32:
My shameless plug for the day:

Instead of sorting through and mentally decoding raw recon data here on the blog or pasting it into a decoder, you can visually track today's hurricane hunter mission into Chantal on the left-hand half of this page.


levi for some reason i cant access ur site the models page loops wont work but everything else is ok.
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Quoting 808. 69Viking:


I don't think there's a single part of Florida that needs the rains this could possibly bring in addition to what we've already had. Not to mention the ULL is going to give us more rain before Chantal...


Actually, we haven't gotten all that much this past month. Though I know most everywhere else around here has had more than enough.

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Looks Like FL, but not much of a storm.
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Quoting 809. Levi32:
My shameless plug for the day:

Instead of sorting through and mentally decoding raw recon data here on the blog or pasting it into a decoder, you can visually track today's hurricane hunter mission into Chantal on the left-hand half of this page.


HH tracker, models, and your video are my favorite part of your site. Very useful!

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
801.
Not really. Emily formed in July.
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12z GFDL Ensembles are rather interesting.

That track late in the period would definitely bend back west and take Chantal into the Gulf.

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Quoting 809. Levi32:
My shameless plug for the day:

Instead of sorting through and mentally decoding raw recon data here on the blog or pasting it into a decoder, you can visually track today's hurricane hunter mission into Chantal on the left-hand half of this page.


True dat! I use your site to get some of the data I post on here, namely the SFMR wind and pressure images, those are excellent
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History indicates hurricanes tend to turn more northward, missing Florida East Coast above 29 degrees north, also missing Jacksonville. Besides the coast line being further west and therefore Gulf Stream further east, do these factors provide a degree of protection from Atlantic hurricanes?
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First pass will be about 4:30 or 5:00 EST.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
No where near the system yet but getting some 30 mph winds at flight level anyway, consistent with the trade pattern.
Time: 18:47:30Z
Coordinates: 17.6667N 64.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 679.3 mb (~ 20.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,469 meters (~ 11,381 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1017.9 mb (~ 30.06 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 100° at 28 knots (From the E at ~ 32.2 mph)
Air Temp: 8.4°C (~ 47.1°F)
Dew Pt: -12.7°C (~ 9.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
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My shameless plug for the day:

Instead of sorting through and mentally decoding raw recon data here on the blog or pasting it into a decoder, you can visually track today's hurricane hunter mission into Chantal on the left-hand half of this page.
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Quoting 786. SFLWeatherman:
2PM going to FL!:)



I don't think there's a single part of Florida that needs the rains this could possibly bring in addition to what we've already had. Not to mention the ULL is going to give us more rain before Chantal...
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Quoting 786. SFLWeatherman:
2PM going to FL!:)



Ah, but what, exactly, is "going to Fla."?

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Quoting 767. Bluestorm5:
Just finished with Forecast #2 for Chantal. Will post this in comment section of my recent blog as well. My gut is telling me Chantal might have a 50/50 shot at hurricane status now so I went ahead and forecasted 75 mph. I might need to adjust my forecast again tonight when I get home from work for sharp left turn at end of Day 4 or 5.


Nice
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805. whitewabit (Mod)
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 07 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 08/2100Z A. 09/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 08/1815Z C. 09/1030Z
D. 12.5N 54.7W D. 14.0N 60.8W
E. 08/2030Z TO 09/0030Z E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1800Z
F. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31101
Quoting 795. pottery:

It's 'shower-curtain' time ??
Levity much appreciated about now! Hahaha :D
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
A Haiti and Dominican Republic strike is imminent now....I feel like this area is always under the gun.
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Quoting 797. Cat5hit:


Yes... No more forecasting Cat 5 hits in the gulf please.


I agree. It is way too early in the season for cat 5s.
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Okay folks at long last recon has started!

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 18:46Z
Date: July 8, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
18:38:00Z 17.700N 64.800W 1016.2 mb*
(~ 30.01 inHg*) - 1015.1 mb*
(~ 29.98 inHg*) - No Wind 36.4°C
(~ 97.5°F) 22.8°C
(~ 73.0°F) No Wind - - - -
18:38:30Z 17.700N 64.800W 1015.9 mb*
(~ 30.00 inHg*) - 1014.8 mb*
(~ 29.97 inHg*) - No Wind 36.1°C
(~ 97.0°F) 23.0°C
(~ 73.4°F) No Wind - - - -
18:39:00Z 17.700N 64.800W 1015.7 mb*
(~ 29.99 inHg*) - 1014.5 mb*
(~ 29.96 inHg*) - No Wind 32.8°C
(~ 91.0°F) 22.9°C
(~ 73.2°F) No Wind - - - -
18:39:30Z 17.700N 64.817W 1015.2 mb*
(~ 29.98 inHg*) - 1014.1 mb*
(~ 29.95 inHg*) - No Wind 30.8°C
(~ 87.4°F) 22.8°C
(~ 73.0°F) No Wind - - - -
18:40:00Z 17.700N 64.817W 1014.9 mb*
(~ 29.97 inHg*) - 1013.4 mb*
(~ 29.93 inHg*) - No Wind 30.5°C
(~ 86.9°F) 23.0°C
(~ 73.4°F) No Wind - - - -
18:40:30Z 17.700N 64.817W 1014.7 mb*
(~ 29.96 inHg*) - 1013.7 mb*
(~ 29.93 inHg*) - No Wind 31.5°C
(~ 88.7°F) 22.9°C
(~ 73.2°F) No Wind - - - -
18:41:00Z 17.700N 64.817W 1014.1 mb*
(~ 29.95 inHg*) - 1013.3 mb*
(~ 29.92 inHg*) - From 93° at 11 knots
(From the E at ~ 12.6 mph) 29.2°C
(~ 84.6°F) 22.4°C
(~ 72.3°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) - - - -
18:41:30Z 17.700N 64.800W 1005.8 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg) 53 meters
(~ 174 feet) 1013.8 mb
(~ 29.94 inHg) - From 90° at 22 knots
(From the E at ~ 25.3 mph) 27.0°C
(~ 80.6°F) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) - - - -
18:42:00Z 17.700N 64.783W 989.8 mb
(~ 29.23 inHg) 225 meters
(~ 738 feet) 1015.9 mb
(~ 30.00 inHg) - From 95° at 20 knots
(From the E at ~ 23.0 mph) 24.9°C
(~ 76.8°F) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
18:42:30Z 17.700N 64.750W 956.1 mb
(~ 28.23 inHg) 513 meters
(~ 1,683 feet) 1015.3 mb
(~ 29.98 inHg) - From 95° at 21 knots
(From the E at ~ 24.1 mph) 22.2°C
(~ 72.0°F) 20.5°C
(~ 68.9°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
18:43:00Z 17.700N 64.733W 917.1 mb
(~ 27.08 inHg) 905 meters
(~ 2,969 feet) 1017.4 mb
(~ 30.04 inHg) - From 99° at 22 knots
(From the E at ~ 25.3 mph) 20.1°C
(~ 68.2°F) 16.3°C
(~ 61.3°F) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) - - - -
18:43:30Z 17.700N 64.700W 887.0 mb
(~ 26.19 inHg) 1,187 meters
(~ 3,894 feet) 1017.6 mb
(~ 30.05 inHg) - From 110° at 18 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 20.7 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 15.9°C
(~ 60.6°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) - - - -
18:44:00Z 17.700N 64.683W 857.9 mb
(~ 25.33 inHg) 1,479 meters
(~ 4,852 feet) 1016.9 mb
(~ 30.03 inHg) - From 110° at 14 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 16.1 mph) 17.6°C
(~ 63.7°F) 13.9°C
(~ 57.0°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) - - - -
18:44:30Z 17.700N 64.650W 825.9 mb
(~ 24.39 inHg) 1,808 meters
(~ 5,932 feet) 1016.6 mb
(~ 30.02 inHg) - From 112° at 16 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 18.4 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 9.9°C
(~ 49.8°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) - - - -
18:45:00Z 17.700N 64.617W 797.5 mb
(~ 23.55 inHg) 2,110 meters
(~ 6,923 feet) 1016.5 mb
(~ 30.02 inHg) - From 103° at 16 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 18.4 mph) 16.1°C
(~ 61.0°F) 6.5°C
(~ 43.7°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) - - - -
18:45:30Z 17.700N 64.600W 774.5 mb
(~ 22.87 inHg) 2,353 meters
(~ 7,720 feet) 1016.5 mb
(~ 30.02 inHg) - From 102° at 16 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 18.4 mph) 14.3°C
(~ 57.7°F) 4.5°C
(~ 40.1°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) - - - -
18:46:00Z 17.700N 64.567W 751.6 mb
(~ 22.19 inHg) 2,610 meters
(~ 8,563 feet) 1016.7 mb
(~ 30.02 inHg) - From 102° at 18 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 20.7 mph) 12.9°C
(~ 55.2°F) -1.3°C
(~ 29.7°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) - - - -
18:46:30Z 17.700N 64.533W 727.1 mb
(~ 21.47 inHg) 2,892 meters
(~ 9,488 feet) 1016.6 mb
(~ 30.02 inHg) - From 108° at 25 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 28.7 mph) 12.0°C
(~ 53.6°F) -13.8°C
(~ 7.2°F) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) - - - -
18:47:00Z 17.683N 64.517W 704.5 mb
(~ 20.80 inHg) 3,155 meters
(~ 10,351 feet) 1016.6 mb
(~ 30.02 inHg) - From 104° at 25 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 28.7 mph) 10.5°C
(~ 50.9°F) -19.4°C
(~ -2.9°F) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) - - - -
18:47:30Z 17.667N 64.483W 679.3 mb
(~ 20.06 inHg) 3,469 meters
(~ 11,381 feet) 1017.9 mb
(~ 30.06 inHg) - From 100° at 28 knots
(From the E at ~ 32.2 mph) 8.4°C
(~ 47.1°F) -12.7°C
(~ 9.1°F) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph)
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Hi everyone! Love the info but respectfully requesting restraint of Katrina comparisons yet. My stomach knots everytime everytime I see that. Really appreciate your time and dedication to understanding and tracking storms. <3

Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
Chantel is further south.But here is Issac the track depending on the pattern could be similar.

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Quoting 783. MississippiWx:
Lol. Post 746 was definitely a joke, people. It was said as a joke due to the constant comparisons to past storms here.
To add that, MissWx is survivor of Katrina in southern MS. He won't want to see a storm like her either.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
2PM going to FL!:)


It's 'shower-curtain' time ??
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Quoting 781. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Your projected path is very similar to this in terms of track and not strength.

It won't end up following David's path though, lol. I mentioned that I will adjust the path later tonight for the sharp left turn over Florida or into Georgia/SC.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7880
At 18:47:30Z (last observation), the observation was 116 miles (186 km) to the ESE (116°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
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Quoting 788. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You forgot the double winky face.


I successfully trolled the blog, I believe. ;-) ;-)
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Good afternoon, evening everyone

Well, the first of the season:

"Meteorological - TROPICAL STORM WATCH

Headline: Tropical Storm Watch issued July 08 at 11:27AM AST until further notice by NWS San Juan

Activation Time: 07/08/13 11:27 AM

Expiration Time: 07/08/13 7:30 PM

Issued By: NWS San Juan (San Juan, Puerto Rico)

Affected Jurisdictions: AMZ732 Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N

Description: ...Chantal Strengthens Slightly... .New Information... A Tropical Storm Watch Has Now Been Issued. .Areas Affected... This Local Statement Provides Important Information And Recommended Actions For People And Marine Interests In Select Locations And Coastal Water Legs Of Puerto Rico And The U.S. Virgin Islands Coastal Waters. .Watches/Warnings... A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For The Following Locations... All Puerto Rico...Culebra And Vieques. For Marine Interests...A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For Portions Of Puerto Rico And The U.S. Virgin Islands Coastal Waters. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Next 48 Hours Somewhere Within The Specified Areas. All Persons In The Watch Areas Should Review Their Preparedness Plan And Be Ready To Implement It Should A Warning Be Issued For Their Area. In Order To Make The Best Decisions...Be Sure That You Understand The Terminology And Definitions Associated With Tropical Cyclone Events. .Storm Information... At 11 AM AST...The Center Of Tropical Storm Chantal Was Located Near Latitude 10.9N...Longitude 51.7W. This Was About 1080 Miles East-Southeast Of San Juan Pr...Or About 990 Miles East-Southeast Of Saint Croix Vi. Storm Motion Was Wnw Or 285 Degrees At 25 Mph. Storm Intensity Was 45 Mph. .Situation Overview... A Tropical Storm Watch Has Now Been Issued. A More Detailed Statement Will Follow Shortly. .Precautionary/Preparedness Actions... .Next Update... The Next Local Statement Will Be Issued By The National Weather Service In San Juan Shortly. It Will Provide Important Details Regarding The Evolving Tropical Cyclone Threats And Their Potential Impacts Upon The Area. ...Tropical Storm Watch In Effect...
"

Lindy
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Greetings.
Showers in Trinidad today, with occasional squall conditions but nothing unusual.

Happy to see that Chantal is still being reigned-in by that dry air west of her. If it was not for that dry air, I think we would be seeing a far more dynamic storm today.
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Quoting 783. MississippiWx:
Lol. Post 746 was definitely a joke, people. It was said as a joke due to the constant comparisons to past storms here.

You forgot the double winky face.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Really, 03L dont look too bad.
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2PM going to FL!:)

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Quoting 746. MississippiWx:


OMG, Katrina all over again.

;-)

Bite your tongue people - do not mention the "K" word please.:(
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Quoting 743. MississippiWx:
Chantal looks poised for a round of strengthening soon. Each new frame shows thicker clouds developing on the northern half with even some new thunderstorms firing there. Recon could actually be getting there right when a storm is strengthening for once.





Wow excellent post the Northern side is building as each new frame shows it quickly billowing. If it can get convection going on the north side by the time Recon goes in expect a 60-65mph.
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Lol. Post 746 was definitely a joke, people. It was said as a joke due to the constant comparisons to past storms here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.