Tropical Storm Chantal: a Likely Harbinger of an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2013

Share this Blog
95
+

Tropical Storm Chantal is speeding westwards at 26 mph towards a Tuesday encounter with the Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show that Chantal has plenty of spin, with several well-developed low-level spiral bands that have gradually increased their heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. However, Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The heavy thunderstorm activity near Chantal's center is rather thin, and there are virtually no heavy thunderstorms on the storm's north side, where upper-level northwesterly winds are creating light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and driving dry air into the storm. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, though, at 27.5 - 28°C. There have not been any hurricane hunter missions into Chantal yet, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft deployed to St. Croix on Sunday, and is scheduled to investigate Chantal on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 10 am EDT Monday, July 8, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Levi Denham, a WC-130J Hercules aircraft weather reconnaissance loadmaster assigned to the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron (the Hurricane Hunters), performs pre-engine start-up inspections in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, on Sept. 16, 2010. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Manuel J. Martinez, U.S. Air Force. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for pointing out this photo.

Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that Chantal will experience low to moderate shear through Tuesday afternoon as it heads west-northwest at 25 mph towards Hispaniola. With ocean temperatures expected to warm to 28°C during that time, Chantal has the potential to intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process, and I don't see Chantal making it to hurricane strength before interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This interaction may be able to destroy the storm, since wind shear is also expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Tuesday night through Thursday. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.


Figure 3. There have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one such tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and unnamed tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001.) Image credit: NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Chantal: an uncommon early-season Cape Verde-type tropical storm
Formation of a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles Islands in early July from an African tropical wave is an uncommon occurrence. Since Atlantic hurricane records began in 1851, there have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles, an average of one early-season tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001 that did not become named storms.)

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 933 - 883

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70Blog Index

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


** WTPQ20 BABJ 081800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS SOULIK 1307 (1307) INITIAL TIME 081800 UTC
00HR 19.3N 141.4E 985HPA 28M/S
30KTS 250KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 20.7N 136.9E 970HPA 35M/S
P+48HR 22.1N 132.0E 960HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 23.5N 127.4E 945HPA 48M/S estimated 95 knots
P+96HR 25.9N 123.4E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 29.3N 121.5E 970HPA 35M/S=

At least 100 knots is possible now

Thanks HGW!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Quoting 62901IL:

Good afternoon nigel. (My ! key isn't working)

How odd. My ? key isn't working either.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16260
Still no where near the system yet. Going to be a little while before they get there folks. 19:35:30Z 16.050N 61.017W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,055 meters
(~ 26,427 feet) - 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) From 73° at 22 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 25.3 mph) -20.1°C
(~ -4.2°F) -52.2°C
(~ -62.0°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
19:36:00Z 16.033N 60.967W 376.2 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,053 meters
(~ 26,421 feet) - 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) From 71° at 21 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 24.1 mph) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) -53.4°C
(~ -64.1°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
19:36:30Z 16.000N 60.933W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,053 meters
(~ 26,421 feet) - 436 meters
(~ 1,430 feet) From 71° at 21 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 24.1 mph) -19.7°C
(~ -3.5°F) -53.6°C
(~ -64.5°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
19:37:00Z 15.983N 60.900W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,055 meters
(~ 26,427 feet) - 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) From 73° at 22 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 25.3 mph) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) -53.9°C
(~ -65.0°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
19:37:30Z 15.967N 60.850W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,056 meters
(~ 26,430 feet) - 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) From 72° at 21 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 24.1 mph) -20.1°C
(~ -4.2°F) -54.0°C
(~ -65.2°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 911. HondosGirl:
Yes --- we are plenty full here in Holmes and Washington Counties! We really need the opportunity to dry out before we start again with the rain. We're at that stage where if it sprinkles a Flash Flood Warning goes out....


I know, my phone has been blowing up with flash flood warnings this past week. Hopefully we get a few dry days to let all the standing water dry up before we get an overload of mosquitos.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At 19:37:30Z (last observation), the observation was 58 miles (93 km) to the E (92°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 19:36Z
Date: July 8, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08

19:37:30Z 15.967N 60.850W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,056 meters
(~ 26,430 feet) - 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) From 72° at 21 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 24.1 mph) -20.1°C
(~ -4.2°F) -54.0°C
(~ -65.2°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 917. MAweatherboy1:

Hey nigel, good to see you! The models are really aggressive with it. The GFS takes it below 930mb, and there's no obvious reason why it can't get very strong. I think a Cat 4 peak is likely. I'm interested in what the next JTWC forecast shows as they only predict a strong Cat 2 peak right now.

I agree. A category 4 seems like a very good bet.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5070
Quoting 914. Ameister12:

The JMA can be very conservative (more so than the NHC.) I'd say It's more than likely already a typhoon.


Yes, I've noticed that with this systsem, especially in their forecasts. This is looking to be a very powerful typhoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
924. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Ameister12:

The JMA can be very conservative (more so than the NHC.) I'd say It's more than likely already a typhoon.


JMA is reporting a typhoon warning already, plus it's 60 knots 10 minutes sustained wind average.

JTWC is likely to upgraded to typhoon in the next advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 920. Civicane49:

Where did you find that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Larger Image

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
912 -

Like a light in the fog!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 915. Patrap:

Very nice!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 910. nigel20:

Hey MA! How strong do you think it'll get?

Hey nigel, good to see you! The models are really aggressive with it. The GFS takes it below 930mb, and there's no obvious reason why it can't get very strong. I think a Cat 4 peak is likely. I'm interested in what the next JTWC forecast shows as they only predict a strong Cat 2 peak right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
916. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
nigel20:

Hey MA! How strong do you think it'll get?


** WTPQ20 BABJ 081800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS SOULIK 1307 (1307) INITIAL TIME 081800 UTC
00HR 19.3N 141.4E 985HPA 28M/S
30KTS 250KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 20.7N 136.9E 970HPA 35M/S
P+48HR 22.1N 132.0E 960HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 23.5N 127.4E 945HPA 48M/S estimated 95 knots
P+96HR 25.9N 123.4E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 29.3N 121.5E 970HPA 35M/S=

At least 100 knots is possible now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 909. Envoirment:




I think it's just on the verge of becoming a typhoon. A recent analysis by the JMA had it at 60kt winds, so wouldn't be surprised if it is upgraded soon.

The JMA can be very conservative (more so than the NHC.) I'd say It's more than likely already a typhoon.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5070
Quoting 907. Patrap:


That's the one the GFS is hot n heavy for I think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 883. OrchidGrower:
Looks to me like the ULL nearing the Bahamas/Florida is moving a whole lot slower than Chantal -- and is very large. What do the forecasts show for track of the ULL over the next few days?

BTW, seeing the latest GFS guess (from post #786) reminds me of the sort of track 1995's Erin took.

Really would be grateful if someone could knowledgeably discuss the big ULL we are/may be awaiting here in FL.


It's putting up thunderstorms today because it's moving over increasingly warmer water and a tropical wave is nosing in under the eastern side of the upper low. Pressures are high in the region, and upper lows like this typically need a lot of time, on the order of days, to develop a surface circulation after the thunderstorms start to go off. This one will likely run out of time before it runs into the ridge over the SE US which is currently causing air to sink in the region, which should keep a lid on the system. I think rainy weather for Florida and the Bahamas is all that will come of this. If it had a couple extra days it could have been a problem.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Quoting 835. 69Viking:


Dang, what part of Florida are you hiding from the rain in? Here in NW Florida I picked up 7 inches of rain over a 4 day period from July 3rd to July 6th! I thought most of Florida got some decent rain over the same period or just before we did.
Yes --- we are plenty full here in Holmes and Washington Counties! We really need the opportunity to dry out before we start again with the rain. We're at that stage where if it sprinkles a Flash Flood Warning goes out....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Soulik is showing hints of a well defined large eye, unlike the more ragged eye feature it had shown this morning.



This pass is a few hours old so it's probably further improved the structure by now:



As much as I'm interested in Chantal, I am more interested in whether this storm bombs out like the models show... it would be an awesome show.

Hey MA! How strong do you think it'll get?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Quoting 901. Ameister12:
Soulik is definitely no longer a tropical storm. It's becoming a monster typhoon. It's in the process of clearing out a large eye.




I think it's just on the verge of becoming a typhoon. A recent analysis by the JMA had it at 60kt winds, so wouldn't be surprised if it is upgraded soon.

P.S: The image above was taken when windspeeds were at 55kts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chantal is starting to looking pretty impressive. Looks like a CDO is starting to wrap in on the north side of the circulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 905. nigel20:

Agreed.

It certainly has!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:
Chantal has been doing a pretty good job as a tropical cyclone in the central Atlantic on early July.


Agreed.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Here's my rainfall graph...



You can go HERE for all my current rainfall data. Or you can just go to RainLog.org and pan the map over to Lantana.

Here's a map of the participants in the Rainlog.org community. It's also an Android app. As you can see, it's mostly an Arizona thing, but anyone can join. I'm the green marker on the lower right.



I expect our totals to go up significantly over the next week. Which of course means it probably won't rain a drop.
Still...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MechEngMet:


Good to hear you are okay. It's heading my way now. Lots of lightning and thunder. Tracking it on radar.

(I took a bad strike here a few years ago. Four figures $ damage. That stuff in dangerous and expensive. Good surge protection is well worth the money.)


Happened to me a year ago last July during severe tstm, computer screen turned an awful shade of green, froze up, thought for sure had lost it... have APC batt back-up / surge protector, BUT - the strike went thru the phone line, glad it only fried the modem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Soulik is definitely no longer a tropical storm. It's becoming a monster typhoon. It's in the process of clearing out a large eye.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5070
900. Relix
It seems to be moving at like 285 degrees. I think the track will shift a bit to the east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 895. Bluestorm5:
I'm hoping they make one pass before I got to leave for work at 5:30 pm... it's gonna be close.

Don't worry...they will
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Soulik is showing hints of a well defined large eye, unlike the more ragged eye feature it had shown this morning.



This pass is a few hours old so it's probably further improved the structure by now:



As much as I'm interested in Chantal, I am more interested in whether this storm bombs out like the models show... it would be an awesome show.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
my forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 893. nigel20:
Good afternoon fellow bloggers!

Good afternoon nigel. (My ! key isn't working)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm hoping they make one pass before I got to leave for work at 5:30 pm... it's gonna be close.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 19:26Z
Date: July 8, 2013

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number: 03

Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 07


At 19:27:30Z (last observation), the observation was 22 miles (36 km) to the N (9°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).

19:27:30Z 16.317N 61.667W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,063 meters
(~ 26,453 feet) - 441 meters
(~ 1,447 feet) From 56° at 20 knots
(From between the NE and ENE at ~ 23.0 mph) -20.3°C
(~ -4.5°F) -43.0°C
(~ -45.4°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon fellow bloggers!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Quoting 801. FunnelVortex:


I agree. It is way too early in the season for cat 5s.


Emily respectfully disagrees.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the link for the research by the NOAA plane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chantal has been doing a pretty good job as a tropical cyclone in the central Atlantic on early July.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
At 19:17:30Z (last observation), the observation was 17 miles (27 km) to the W (261°) from Salem, Montserrat.


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 19:16Z

Date: July 8, 2013

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 06

19:17:30Z 16.700N 62.467W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,069 meters
(~ 26,473 feet) - 452 meters
(~ 1,483 feet) From 50° at 15 knots
(From the NE at ~ 17.2 mph) -20.9°C
(~ -5.6°F) -44.7°C
(~ -48.5°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 17.8 knots (~ 20.5 mph)
118.8%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 885. will40:



yes still at 26000ft


Wow.........Long flight for those folks; I imagine they packed a few snacks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 883. OrchidGrower:
Looks to me like the ULL nearing the Bahamas/Florida is moving a whole lot slower than Chantal -- and is very large. What do the forecasts show for track of the ULL over the next few days?

BTW, seeing the latest GFS guess (from post #786) reminds me of the sort of track 1995's Erin took.

Really would be grateful if someone could knowledgeably discuss the big ULL we are/may be awaiting here in FL.


Jim Reif said this afternoon tomorrow night into Wednesday, Thursday our rain chances will greatly increase.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Overland HH Mission is a ..SENEX one.


Southeast Nexus (SENEX)
Studying the Interaction Between Natural and Anthropogenic Emissions at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change




The NOAA Hurricane Hunters
29 June

Check out this image of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) C-130 flying over Birmingham, Alabama earlier today. Taken from the window of the NOAA P-3 (NOAA42) Flight Director, today's "inter-comparison" mission between NCAR and The NOAA Hurricane Hunters was conducted as part of the SENEX project.


FB Link



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 884. weathermanwannabe:
Just opened up the Google - Hurricane Hunter app for the first time; super cool. If I am seeing the app correctly, the HH is currently en-route to Chantal due West of Montserrat?



yes still at 26000ft
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Just opened up the Google - Hurricane Hunter app for the first time; super cool. If I am seeing the app correctly, the HH is currently en-route to Chantal due West of Montserrat?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks to me like the ULL nearing the Bahamas/Florida is moving a whole lot slower than Chantal -- and is very large. What do the forecasts show for track of the ULL over the next few days?

BTW, seeing the latest GFS guess (from post #786) reminds me of the sort of track 1995's Erin took.

Really would be grateful if someone could knowledgeably discuss the big ULL we are/may be awaiting here in FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 933 - 883

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast