Tropical Storm Chantal: a Likely Harbinger of an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2013

Share this Blog
95
+

Tropical Storm Chantal is speeding westwards at 26 mph towards a Tuesday encounter with the Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show that Chantal has plenty of spin, with several well-developed low-level spiral bands that have gradually increased their heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. However, Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The heavy thunderstorm activity near Chantal's center is rather thin, and there are virtually no heavy thunderstorms on the storm's north side, where upper-level northwesterly winds are creating light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and driving dry air into the storm. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, though, at 27.5 - 28°C. There have not been any hurricane hunter missions into Chantal yet, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft deployed to St. Croix on Sunday, and is scheduled to investigate Chantal on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 10 am EDT Monday, July 8, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Levi Denham, a WC-130J Hercules aircraft weather reconnaissance loadmaster assigned to the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron (the Hurricane Hunters), performs pre-engine start-up inspections in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, on Sept. 16, 2010. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Manuel J. Martinez, U.S. Air Force. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for pointing out this photo.

Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that Chantal will experience low to moderate shear through Tuesday afternoon as it heads west-northwest at 25 mph towards Hispaniola. With ocean temperatures expected to warm to 28°C during that time, Chantal has the potential to intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process, and I don't see Chantal making it to hurricane strength before interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This interaction may be able to destroy the storm, since wind shear is also expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Tuesday night through Thursday. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.


Figure 3. There have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one such tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and unnamed tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001.) Image credit: NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Chantal: an uncommon early-season Cape Verde-type tropical storm
Formation of a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles Islands in early July from an African tropical wave is an uncommon occurrence. Since Atlantic hurricane records began in 1851, there have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles, an average of one early-season tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001 that did not become named storms.)

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 983 - 933

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70Blog Index

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 980. HurricaneAndre:
Yes.

Good. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, as feared, no rain fell for my location in SE TX. We're done. This all points to a hurricane strike.... ;\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 979. 62901IL:

Does Chantal still have a closed circulation?
Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 974. MississippiWx:


Just from looking at satellite, I don't think there's any doubt about Chantal being a closed circulation right now. Luckily, the HH will confirm it soon. Stop stirring the pot, Jordan. :-p

Does Chantal still have a closed circulation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 972. sar2401:

The colors are very pretty and it looks like Chantal has a clear path through the shear to Bermuda. :-)


Hey Sar - I was gonna mention the colors too, but everybody already knows I'm a picture freak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 958. druseljic:


What time are they supposed to reach the system?


according to the Plan Of The Day around 4:30 eastern
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4249
Quoting 954. Tazmanian:
any commets on my post 936?


I agree - IF wind shear continues to fall and falls faster than currently predicted by the models, Chantal could be stronger.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 970. TomTaylor:
Dean and Felix were both cat5s moving at ~20 MPH. As long as there is a strong gradient in the wind flow perpendicular to the storm's motion, fast trade winds on one side of the storm are not a big deal. When trade winds start accelerating ahead of the storm or when the storm is embedded in uniformly fast trade winds, then we've got more serious problems. Obviously trade winds are presenting Chantal with some problems; we still can't definitively say she's closed off her circulation. However, I don't think fast trade wind flow is as detrimental as you are making it out to be.

Personally, I am thinking a lack of upper level forcing is giving her some issues right now. Large-scale sinking surrounding the storm can be seen on chi200 and wv imagery. Additionally, no significant upper-level features in her vicinity means minimal localized vertical forcing. There is a weak ULL to her north allowing minimal outflow to the NNE. Other than that, that is it. She certainly doesn't have her own anticyclone aloft.






Just from looking at satellite, I don't think there's any doubt about Chantal being a closed circulation right now. Luckily, the HH will confirm it soon. Stop stirring the pot, Jordan. :-p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 963. Relix:


Hasn't affected her that much in the past 72 hours. She will hold.


Don't see much in the way of model or met support for that, but anything's possible. Wouldn't be the first time a storm surprised everybody, that's fer sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
any commets on my post 936?

The colors are very pretty and it looks like Chantal has a clear path through the shear to Bermuda. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15958


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 19:56Z
Date: July 8, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10

At 19:57:30Z (last observation), the observation was 123 miles (198 km) to the ENE (71°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).

19:57:30Z 15.167N 59.333W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,056 meters
(~ 26,430 feet) - 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) From 86° at 23 knots
(From the E at ~ 26.4 mph) -21.0°C
(~ -5.8°F) -52.7°C
(~ -62.9°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 17.2 knots (~ 19.8 mph)
75.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 177. Levi32:


It's Stewart, lol.

I find it interesting that he says this:

"OTHER THAN THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF CHANTAL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR..."

I personally think he is brushing off the forward speed too lightly. It means a lot more than that.

Dean and Felix were both cat5s moving at ~20 MPH. As long as there is a strong gradient in the wind flow perpendicular to the storm's motion, fast trade winds on one side of the storm are not a big deal. When trade winds start accelerating ahead of the storm or when the storm is embedded in uniformly fast trade winds, then we've got more serious problems. Obviously trade winds are presenting Chantal with some problems; we still can't definitively say she's closed off her circulation. However, I don't think fast trade wind flow is as detrimental as you are making it out to be.

Personally, I am thinking a lack of upper level forcing is giving her some issues right now. Large-scale sinking surrounding the storm can be seen on chi200 and wv imagery. Additionally, no significant upper-level features in her vicinity means minimal localized vertical forcing. There is a weak ULL to her north allowing minimal outflow to the NNE. Other than that, that is it. She certainly doesn't have her own anticyclone aloft. Lack of vertical forcing largely explains the dismal satellite appearance to me.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 954. Tazmanian:
any commets on my post 936?


Nope
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 188. Levi32:
Brand new ASCAT pass is not very telling on whether Chantal's circulation is still closed. Too many flagged wind barbs near the center.

Yep, same dilemma as yesterday. ASCAT never showed she was closed then either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 963. Relix:


Hasn't affected her that much in the past 72 hours. She will hold.

I hope so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its in a favorable environment for shear the problem is it is moving too fast but there is indication of more convection try to form to its north and wrap around it LLC. If it dont slow down it will continue to outrun it CDO and will never strengthen into much we shall see what happen when it enters the East Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 955. DataNerd:


No Worries DN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
starting to get sheared from northwest if you look closely at the nw side of chantal, still will get plenty of weather here in puerto rico
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
963. Relix
Quoting 960. mikatnight:


Still, too fast though. Gonna blow her engine.


Hasn't affected her that much in the past 72 hours. She will hold.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 959. DataNerd:
19:54:00Z 15.333N 59.583W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,058 meters
(~ 26,437 feet) - 443 meters
(~ 1,453 feet) From 76° at 24 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 27.6 mph) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) -52.7°C
(~ -62.9°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.0 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
79.2%
19:54:30Z 15.300N 59.550W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,063 meters
(~ 26,453 feet) - 442 meters
(~ 1,450 feet) From 76° at 24 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 27.6 mph) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) -52.6°C
(~ -62.7°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
75.0%
19:55:00Z 15.283N 59.517W 376.0 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,059 meters
(~ 26,440 feet) - 443 meters
(~ 1,453 feet) From 78° at 24 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 27.6 mph) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) -52.6°C
(~ -62.7°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.0 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
79.2%
19:55:30Z 15.267N 59.483W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,060 meters
(~ 26,444 feet) - 441 meters
(~ 1,447 feet) From 83° at 24 knots
(From the E at ~ 27.6 mph) -20.3°C
(~ -4.5°F) -52.6°C
(~ -62.7°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
75.0%
19:56:00Z 15.233N 59.450W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,059 meters
(~ 26,440 feet) - 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) From 84° at 24 knots
(From the E at ~ 27.6 mph) -20.6°C
(~ -5.1°F) -52.7°C
(~ -62.9°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.0 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
79.2%
19:56:30Z 15.217N 59.400W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,058 meters
(~ 26,437 feet) - 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) From 83° at 23 knots
(From the E at ~ 26.4 mph) -20.7°C
(~ -5.3°F) -52.6°C
(~ -62.7°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 17.2 knots (~ 19.8 mph)
75.0%
19:57:00Z 15.200N 59.367W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,058 meters
(~ 26,437 feet) - 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) From 84° at 23 knots
(From the E at ~ 26.4 mph) -20.8°C
(~ -5.4°F) -52.6°C
(~ -62.7°F) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
78.3%
19:57:30Z 15.167N 59.333W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,056 meters
(~ 26,430 feet) - 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) From 86° at 23 knots
(From the E at ~ 26.4 mph) -21.0°C
(~ -5.8°F) -52.7°C
(~ -62.9°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 17.2 knots (~ 19.8 mph)
75.0

Thank you for sharing that with us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 947. DataNerd:



I would urge two things

1. Caution! These long range intensity forecasts are basically like using dousing rods to find oil. There is no real reliability here and this has been shown to us time and time again.

2. You better hope not. For alot of reasons you should hope that this does not happen. A category 3 or greater storm impacting Florida and re-emerging into the gulf this early in the year, or at all for that matter, would be a disaster. Given the conditions in the gulf, the storm would be primed for RI in that scenario and that is a nightmare no one down here wants to relive.


In summation I think its very premature to start talking about intensity figures of that magnitude for this system. Wait 5 days then see what we have.


Lol. What are you talking about? He's talking about the WPac typhoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 936. Tazmanian:





wind shear is falling and its is no where near too what wind shear was like overe the weekend i haveing a feeling that Chantal could be come a lot stronger then the nhc is forcasting wind shear is this about gone


Still, too fast though. Gonna blow her engine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
19:54:00Z 15.333N 59.583W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,058 meters
(~ 26,437 feet) - 443 meters
(~ 1,453 feet) From 76° at 24 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 27.6 mph) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) -52.7°C
(~ -62.9°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.0 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
79.2%
19:54:30Z 15.300N 59.550W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,063 meters
(~ 26,453 feet) - 442 meters
(~ 1,450 feet) From 76° at 24 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 27.6 mph) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) -52.6°C
(~ -62.7°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
75.0%
19:55:00Z 15.283N 59.517W 376.0 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,059 meters
(~ 26,440 feet) - 443 meters
(~ 1,453 feet) From 78° at 24 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 27.6 mph) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) -52.6°C
(~ -62.7°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.0 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
79.2%
19:55:30Z 15.267N 59.483W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,060 meters
(~ 26,444 feet) - 441 meters
(~ 1,447 feet) From 83° at 24 knots
(From the E at ~ 27.6 mph) -20.3°C
(~ -4.5°F) -52.6°C
(~ -62.7°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
75.0%
19:56:00Z 15.233N 59.450W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,059 meters
(~ 26,440 feet) - 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) From 84° at 24 knots
(From the E at ~ 27.6 mph) -20.6°C
(~ -5.1°F) -52.7°C
(~ -62.9°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.0 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
79.2%
19:56:30Z 15.217N 59.400W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,058 meters
(~ 26,437 feet) - 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) From 83° at 23 knots
(From the E at ~ 26.4 mph) -20.7°C
(~ -5.3°F) -52.6°C
(~ -62.7°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 17.2 knots (~ 19.8 mph)
75.0%
19:57:00Z 15.200N 59.367W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,058 meters
(~ 26,437 feet) - 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) From 84° at 23 knots
(From the E at ~ 26.4 mph) -20.8°C
(~ -5.4°F) -52.6°C
(~ -62.7°F) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
78.3%
19:57:30Z 15.167N 59.333W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,056 meters
(~ 26,430 feet) - 440 meters
(~ 1,444 feet) From 86° at 23 knots
(From the E at ~ 26.4 mph) -21.0°C
(~ -5.8°F) -52.7°C
(~ -62.9°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 17.2 knots (~ 19.8 mph)
75.0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 951. 62901IL:
Don't worry about the hurricane hunters guys...they'll be there soon.......................


What time are they supposed to reach the system?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
957. Kyon5

Getting very well organized. We'll see what recon finds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wonder where the periphery of the ridge is?




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 952. MonsterTrough:


True statement about all models, but I think their convo was about wpac storm?

If it was my apologies, but the statement still stands.

I am sure if I hadn't said that and if they were talking wpac someone would have brought something of that nature up for this system at some point.

So now thats out of the way -_-
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
any commets on my post 936?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 939. Levi32:
Milky-white cirrus clouds are moving SW to NE over the top of Chantal's center, indicating that she is outrunning her own warm bubble to an extent. Fast flow at work. There is a bit of an upper trough to her west as well (you can tell by the way the cirrus are moving north to south over the lesser Antilles), which may be contributing to some wind shear.




If it doesn't fully decouple dmax and the affluence near the Antilles will be interesting. Otherwise we may see a drop off here. Its moving so fast an ernesto wouldn't surprise me here at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 947. DataNerd:



I would urge two things

1. Caution! These long range intensity forecasts are basically like using dousing rods to find oil. There is no real reliability here and this has been shown to us time and time again.

2. You better hope not. For alot of reasons you should hope that this does not happen. A category 3 or greater storm impacting Florida and re-emerging into the gulf this early in the year, or at all for that matter, would be a disaster. Given the conditions in the gulf, the storm would be primed for RI in that scenario and that is a nightmare no one down here wants to relive.


In summation I think its very premature to start talking about intensity figures of that magnitude for this system. Wait 5 days then see what we have.


True statement about all models, but I think their convo was about wpac storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't worry about the hurricane hunters guys...they'll be there soon.......................
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 946. washingtonian115:
Well anything is better looking than Danny...


Washi that was disgusting XD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 939. Levi32:
Milky-white cirrus clouds are moving SW to NE over the top of Chantal's center, indicating that she is outrunning her own warm bubble to an extent. Fast flow at work. There is a bit of an upper trough to her west as well (you can tell by the way the cirrus are moving north to south over the lesser Antilles), which may be contributing to some wind shear.



'Speed Kills' if she don't slow down, she gonna blow a gasket!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 926. Ameister12:

I agree. A category 4 seems like a very good bet.



I would urge two things

1. Caution! These long range intensity forecasts are basically like using dousing rods to find oil. There is no real reliability here and this has been shown to us time and time again.

2. You better hope not. For alot of reasons you should hope that this does not happen. A category 3 or greater storm impacting Florida and re-emerging into the gulf this early in the year, or at all for that matter, would be a disaster. Given the conditions in the gulf, the storm would be primed for RI in that scenario and that is a nightmare no one down here wants to relive.


In summation I think its very premature to start talking about intensity figures of that magnitude for this system. Wait 5 days then see what we have.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well anything is better looking than Danny...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 808. 69Viking:


I don't think there's a single part of Florida that needs the rains this could possibly bring in addition to what we've already had. Not to mention the ULL is going to give us more rain before Chantal...
Saturated ground = more trees felled
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At 19:47:30Z (last observation), the observation was 91 miles (147 km) to the ENE (75°) from Roseau, Dominica.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 19:46Z
Date: July 8, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09

19:47:30Z 15.633N 60.067W 375.9 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,067 meters
(~ 26,467 feet) - 444 meters
(~ 1,457 feet) From 86° at 25 knots
(From the E at ~ 28.7 mph) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) -52.9°C
(~ -63.2°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 14.0 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
56.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 931. DataNerd:
Still no where near the system yet. Going to be a little while before they get there folks. 19:35:30Z 16.050N 61.017W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,055 meters
(~ 26,427 feet) - 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) From 73 at 22 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 25.3 mph) -20.1C
(~ -4.2F) -52.2C
(~ -62.0F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
19:36:00Z 16.033N 60.967W 376.2 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,053 meters
(~ 26,421 feet) - 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) From 71 at 21 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 24.1 mph) -20.0C
(~ -4.0F) -53.4C
(~ -64.1F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
19:36:30Z 16.000N 60.933W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,053 meters
(~ 26,421 feet) - 436 meters
(~ 1,430 feet) From 71 at 21 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 24.1 mph) -19.7C
(~ -3.5F) -53.6C
(~ -64.5F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
19:37:00Z 15.983N 60.900W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,055 meters
(~ 26,427 feet) - 437 meters
(~ 1,434 feet) From 73 at 22 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 25.3 mph) -20.0C
(~ -4.0F) -53.9C
(~ -65.0F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) - - - -
19:37:30Z 15.967N 60.850W 375.8 mb
(~ 11.10 inHg) 8,056 meters
(~ 26,430 feet) - 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) From 72 at 21 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 24.1 mph) -20.1C
(~ -4.2F) -54.0C
(~ -65.2F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph)


They're not even halfway there... look like I might miss the passes since I got to leave at 5:30 pm EST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still a long way out.

194730 1538N 06004W 3759 08067 0444 -200 -529 086025 025 014 001 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Milky-white cirrus clouds are moving SW to NE over the top of Chantal's center, indicating that she is outrunning her own warm bubble to an extent. Fast flow at work. There is a bit of an upper trough to her west as well (you can tell by the way the cirrus are moving north to south over the lesser Antilles), which may be contributing to some wind shear.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Hey nigel, good to see you! The models are really aggressive with it. The GFS takes it below 930mb, and there's no obvious reason why it can't get very strong. I think a Cat 4 peak is likely. I'm interested in what the next JTWC forecast shows as they only predict a strong Cat 2 peak right now.

It's good to see you too MA! So it could become the first super typhoon of the wpac season...
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8130
Quoting 935. DataNerd:
Chantal's LLC is out ahead of the main system.

I'd say decouple but the system hasn't yet been stacked enough for that. Looks like new convective structure is forming around it however leaving the old one to slowly die out behind it.

Link

I don't understand...how's that possible?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:





wind shear is falling and its is no where near too what wind shear was like overe the weekend i haveing a feeling that Chantal could be come a lot stronger then the nhc is forcasting wind shear is this about gone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chantal's LLC is out ahead of the main system.

I'd say decouple but the system hasn't yet been stacked enough for that. Looks like new convective structure is forming around it however leaving the old one to slowly die out behind it.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UW-CIMSS
SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES


(CHANTAL) 2013
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2013070816
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 1001 hPa MSW = 54 kt
ADT: 1001 hPa 53 kt Scene: CRVBD
CIMSS AMSU: 1001 hPa 53 kt Bias Corr: 0 (TPC)
SSMIS: SSMISP hPa SSMISW kt
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


** WTPQ20 BABJ 081800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS SOULIK 1307 (1307) INITIAL TIME 081800 UTC
00HR 19.3N 141.4E 985HPA 28M/S
30KTS 250KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 20.7N 136.9E 970HPA 35M/S
P+48HR 22.1N 132.0E 960HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 23.5N 127.4E 945HPA 48M/S estimated 95 knots
P+96HR 25.9N 123.4E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 29.3N 121.5E 970HPA 35M/S=

At least 100 knots is possible now

Thanks HGW!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8130

Viewing: 983 - 933

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.