Tropical Storm Chantal: a Likely Harbinger of an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2013

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Tropical Storm Chantal is speeding westwards at 26 mph towards a Tuesday encounter with the Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show that Chantal has plenty of spin, with several well-developed low-level spiral bands that have gradually increased their heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. However, Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The heavy thunderstorm activity near Chantal's center is rather thin, and there are virtually no heavy thunderstorms on the storm's north side, where upper-level northwesterly winds are creating light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and driving dry air into the storm. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, though, at 27.5 - 28°C. There have not been any hurricane hunter missions into Chantal yet, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft deployed to St. Croix on Sunday, and is scheduled to investigate Chantal on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 10 am EDT Monday, July 8, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Levi Denham, a WC-130J Hercules aircraft weather reconnaissance loadmaster assigned to the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron (the Hurricane Hunters), performs pre-engine start-up inspections in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, on Sept. 16, 2010. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Manuel J. Martinez, U.S. Air Force. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for pointing out this photo.

Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that Chantal will experience low to moderate shear through Tuesday afternoon as it heads west-northwest at 25 mph towards Hispaniola. With ocean temperatures expected to warm to 28°C during that time, Chantal has the potential to intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process, and I don't see Chantal making it to hurricane strength before interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This interaction may be able to destroy the storm, since wind shear is also expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Tuesday night through Thursday. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.


Figure 3. There have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one such tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and unnamed tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001.) Image credit: NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Chantal: an uncommon early-season Cape Verde-type tropical storm
Formation of a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles Islands in early July from an African tropical wave is an uncommon occurrence. Since Atlantic hurricane records began in 1851, there have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles, an average of one early-season tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001 that did not become named storms.)

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

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For future reference I like my crow fried. Nice and crispy with a side of mashed potatoes and gravy.

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I just don't want another cane running up the coast.
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Quoting 1066. BaltimoreBrian:


4 and 20 blackbirds baked in a pie myself.


SR-71 Pie, Yum..
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What the...?!
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Quoting 1075. TylerStanfield:


Medium but I don't anticipate eating it.
I'm Semi-Conservative at my forecasting because I'm not going to go out on a limb like less Tropically-Educated bloggers and say this is already something that it isn't. I can say this with full respect because I used to be one of those people forecasting 25 Named storms seasons and saying that everything was stronger than it really was, but I've learned and Educated myself with the time I've been with this blog to understand when something is a big deal or not, and right now, This is no 60 mph storm, if it is, its a very disorganized one for that intensity.

Need to slow down when typing these... This is NO* 60 mph storm
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1078. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Typhoon 07W (SOULIK)
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER

081800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 141.5E

Forecast
----------
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.4N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.9N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
1077. Niedjav
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2013 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 11:23:34 N Lon : 53:14:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 999.5mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -37.6C Cloud Region Temp : -51.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 46km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.5 degrees
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sure wouldnt go out to 65 but 50mph with higher gust looks like my guess. we need to find west winds first and that might not be easy considering the system is racing along
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Quoting 1058. Dakster:


When I pick some up for myself, I'll get some for you too. How do you like yours cooked?

Medium but I don't anticipate eating it.
I'm Semi-Conservative at my forecasting because I'm not going to go out on a limb like less Tropically-Educated bloggers and say this is already something that it isn't. I can say this with full respect because I used to be one of those people forecasting 25 Named storms seasons and saying that everything was stronger than it really was, but I've learned and Educated myself with the time I've been with this blog to understand when something is a big deal or not, and right now, This is no 60 mph storm, if it is, its a very disorganized one for that intensity.
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1074. ncstorm
12z GFS Ensembles Spread on the wave behind Chantal





east or west coast of florida is where the ensembles disagree on




but most want to take it to the east coast




Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
1073. Patrap
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 081513
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 08 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-038

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 10/0000Z,0600Z A. 10/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0303A CHANTAL B. AFXXX 0403A CHANTAL
C. 09/2300Z C. 10/1100Z
D. 15.2N 64.1W D. 16.8N 68.2W
E. 09/2330Z TO 10/0600Z E. 10/1130Z TO 10/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,00 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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Quoting 1051. TylerStanfield:

Satellite estimates are typically overdone. This is probably a 50 Mph Tropical Storm. And if it were to be a Hurricane Tomorrow I'll eat crow, but there is no indication of this thing getting anywhere near that for the next 36 hours.



Look at Pat's post below and by the way how do you like your crow cooked?
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Quoting 1067. barbamz:
Nobody cares for poor Erick any longer, sigh. So a last view as he's scratching the coast of Baja Cal. Peninsula ...


Some of the articles I linked were about Germany today.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8067
I wasn't able to check the update on the tropics until after work at almost 3:00. All I can say is "Oh my goodness!" This year reminds me of 2005 so much in that we have this early Cape Verde storm which has defied the odds both climatologically and for the seemingly unfavorable conditions. I fear for August and September.

Buckle down, because this is going to be one heck of a season!!
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1069. will40
Quoting 1059. interstatelover7166:
HH on very outer fringes of T.S. CHANTAL as of 20:30Z.


well they didnt miss 4:30 time by much
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
1068. Patrap
Lets see what the penetration run shows us.
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1067. barbamz
Nobody cares for poor Erick any longer, sigh. So a last view as he's scratching the coast of Baja Cal. Peninsula ...
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Quoting 1058. Dakster:


When I pick some up for myself, I'll get some for you too. How do you like yours cooked?


4 and 20 blackbirds baked in a pie myself.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8067
1065. 62901IL
Quoting 1062. StormTrackerScott:
Thanks Pat!

Tropical Storm 03L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2013 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 11:23:34 N Lon : 53:14:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 999.5mb/ 55.0kt

Impossible. that pressure is too low and the wind is too high.
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Those numbers were 3.3 just 2 hours ago now up to 3.5. Impressive.
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This is Soulik, not Chantal.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2013 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 19:29:49 N Lon : 141:08:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 983.0mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.3 6.7
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Pat!

Tropical Storm 03L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2013 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 11:23:34 N Lon : 53:14:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 999.5mb/ 55.0kt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1061. Patrap

At 20:27:30Z (last observation), the observation was 173 miles (278 km) to the ENE (74°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 20:26Z
Date: July 8, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13

20:27:30Z 13.800N 57.150W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,054 meters
(~ 26,424 feet) - 433 meters
(~ 1,421 feet) From 92° at 15 knots
(From the E at ~ 17.2 mph) -19.5°C
(~ -3.1°F) -53.1°C
(~ -63.6°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 17.8 knots (~ 20.5 mph)
118.8%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
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Quoting 1049. Tazmanian:




sorry i sould have said CURVED BAND


Taz, I swear, I thought you were talking about me at first! (lol)
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HH on very outer fringes of T.S. CHANTAL as of 20:30Z.
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1058. Dakster
Quoting 1051. TylerStanfield:

Satellite estimates are typically overdone. This is probably a 50 Mph Tropical Storm. And if it were to be a Hurricane Tomorrow I'll eat crow, but there is no indication of this thing getting anywhere near that for the next 36 hours.


When I pick some up for myself, I'll get some for you too. How do you like yours cooked?
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1057. Patrap
Tropical Storm 03L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2013 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 11:23:34 N Lon : 53:14:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 999.5mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -37.6C Cloud Region Temp : -51.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 46km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.5 degrees



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Quoting 1051. TylerStanfield:

Satellite estimates are typically overdone. This is probably a 50 Mph Tropical Storm. And if it were to be a Hurricane Tomorrow I'll eat crow, but there is no indication of this thing getting anywhere near that for the next 36 hours.
I'll be surprised Chantel even gets to that intensity..it's possible but highly unlikely.
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Looking like the GFS nailed the intensity of Soulik. At its current rate of intesification a Super Typhoon seems very likely.
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Quoting 1003. Levi32:


Well, she's actually on the southeastern flank of an upper trough centered just east of the lesser Antilles, which has been hard for the GFS to see recently because no upper clouds have been in the area to generate GOES-derived upper winds. She's in a divergent upper flow at the moment, though if she overtakes the upper trough axis then she soon won't be.

You're talking about Cat 5s moving at 20mph. That's nothing. They don't care. Once something is developed it's hard to tear apart. It's the weak and tiny tropical waves like Chantal that can suffer greatly from rapid movement and trade wind divergence. We saw that with Ernesto last year and Emily the year before.

Obviously we'll see. Chantal is really on the edge of intensifying or weakening at the moment. I stuck my neck out with a forecast for a weaker TS when she was still in formative stages. After the recon mission I'll re-evaluate for tonight's forecast.
Yeah, true. I still don't think the trade wind flow is that bad though, still a very strong meridional gradient in the zonal wind which will naturally lend cyclonic vorticity. Both the upper and lower level environments could certainly be better though.

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Quoting 1036. aislinnpaps:


I understand. The small storm headed at me gave us 30 mph gusts and then dissipated just before reaching me.


Where you located?
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Quoting 1047. StormTrackerScott:


I think it is a 60 mph or even a 65 mph storm now. Waiting on recon to confirm as indications are we have a 60 mph storm based on numbers of 3.3

Satellite estimates are typically overdone. This is probably a 50 Mph Tropical Storm. And if it were to be a Hurricane Tomorrow I'll eat crow, but there is no indication of this thing getting anywhere near that for the next 36 hours.
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1050. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TropicalAnalystwx13
...I'm glad that's over there.



I bet it's glad to be over there too with the warm waters

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
Quoting 1046. sar2401:

Oh no! An entire wave is going to be banned?




sorry i sould have said CURVED BAND
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Quoting 1033. Tazmanian:
say good night oh dont look now but i see the wave off the coast and i see banning with it


Taz this wave will be the sacrificial wave.The monster behind it will be the big dog.
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Quoting 1037. sar2401:

I thought you said it was already a 65 mph storm?


I think it is a 60 mph or even a 65 mph storm now. Waiting on recon to confirm as indications are we have a 60 mph storm based on numbers of 3.3
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1046. sar2401
Quoting Tazmanian:
say good night oh dont look now but i see the wave off the this about off the coast and i see banning with it



Oh no! An entire wave is going to be banned?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9962
1045. Dakster
Quoting 1035. will40:



she getting bigger in size it looks like


O___o

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Quoting 1027. StormTrackerScott:
I suspect we will have our first hurricane of the season tomorrow. Also some of the models are indicating Chantal becoming a hurricane or strong TS before slamming into the Florida east coast on Sunday.

Hold on let see what Recon say about that first so some data can go into the models and there is more confidence. But its possible but unlikely.
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Quoting 1027. StormTrackerScott:
I suspect we will have our first hurricane of the season tomorrow. Also some of the models are indicating Chantal becoming a hurricane or strong TS before slamming into the Florida east coast on Sunday.


Facepalm...
Good luck with that forecast.
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1042. Patrap
At 20:17:30Z (last observation), the observation was 141 miles (227 km) to the NE (55°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 20:16Z
Date: July 8, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12

20:17:30Z 14.250N 57.883W 376.1 mb
(~ 11.11 inHg) 8,053 meters
(~ 26,421 feet) - 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) From 89° at 16 knots
(From the E at ~ 18.4 mph) -20.0°C
(~ -4.0°F) -48.6°C
(~ -55.5°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 16.0 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
100.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
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1041. nigel20
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

Soulik is looking really impressive.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
...I'm glad that's over there.

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1039. Dakster
Quoting 1033. Tazmanian:
say good night oh dont look now but i see the wave off the this about off the coast and i see banning with it




Why do you want to ban it?
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Quoting 1024. sar2401:

Or even 94L!
I'm not sure you understand.
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1037. sar2401
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I suspect we will have our first hurricane of the season tomorrow. Also some of the models are indicating Chantal becoming a hurricane or strong TS before slamming into the Florida east coast on Sunday.


I thought you said it was already a 65 mph storm?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9962
Quoting 981. RitaEvac:
Well, as feared, no rain fell for my location in SE TX. We're done. This all points to a hurricane strike.... ;\


I understand. The small storm headed at me gave us 30 mph gusts and then dissipated just before reaching me.
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1035. will40
Quoting 1026. Patrap:



she getting bigger in size it looks like
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
1034. pcola57
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say good night oh dont look now but i see the wave off the coast and i see banning with it


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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.