Tropical Storm Chantal: a Likely Harbinger of an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2013

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Tropical Storm Chantal is speeding westwards at 26 mph towards a Tuesday encounter with the Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show that Chantal has plenty of spin, with several well-developed low-level spiral bands that have gradually increased their heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. However, Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The heavy thunderstorm activity near Chantal's center is rather thin, and there are virtually no heavy thunderstorms on the storm's north side, where upper-level northwesterly winds are creating light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and driving dry air into the storm. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, though, at 27.5 - 28°C. There have not been any hurricane hunter missions into Chantal yet, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft deployed to St. Croix on Sunday, and is scheduled to investigate Chantal on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 10 am EDT Monday, July 8, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Levi Denham, a WC-130J Hercules aircraft weather reconnaissance loadmaster assigned to the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron (the Hurricane Hunters), performs pre-engine start-up inspections in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, on Sept. 16, 2010. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Manuel J. Martinez, U.S. Air Force. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for pointing out this photo.

Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that Chantal will experience low to moderate shear through Tuesday afternoon as it heads west-northwest at 25 mph towards Hispaniola. With ocean temperatures expected to warm to 28°C during that time, Chantal has the potential to intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process, and I don't see Chantal making it to hurricane strength before interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This interaction may be able to destroy the storm, since wind shear is also expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Tuesday night through Thursday. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.


Figure 3. There have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one such tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and unnamed tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001.) Image credit: NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Chantal: an uncommon early-season Cape Verde-type tropical storm
Formation of a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles Islands in early July from an African tropical wave is an uncommon occurrence. Since Atlantic hurricane records began in 1851, there have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles, an average of one early-season tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001 that did not become named storms.)

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1122. pcola57:


I agree with you Washi..
Chantal is turning heads and getting ooo's and aaahh's but the wave behind her is looking better than she did at that position..
I'm in agreement with Dr. Masters as well as this may be a looong CV season..
Chantal has issues to overcome..
The next wave will have that enviroment all moistened up..
I believe the real show is about to begin sooner than climo suggests..
Remember I'm just a learned observer..
Nothing more..
Just sharing my opinion here FWIW..

I remember the train of systems in 2010 and all of them seemed to struggle with dry air even when a system passed ahead of them I think the wave behind Chnatal will still have to deal with dry air but with the ULL leaving it might have a better chance for development
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2348
000
WTNT33 KNHC 082048 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEARING CHANTAL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 53.9W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
LATER ON TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND REACH PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Member Since: October 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 372
1131. Grothar
Quoting 1119. Tazmanian:



he seen nothing 1st



LOL.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25381
1130. 62901IL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND AND AHEAD OF CHANTAL FAVOR AT LEAST
MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...AND
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES
HISPANIOLA. AFTER CHANTAL MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA ON DAY 2/3...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS.
THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1129. JRRP
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5444
1128. Dakster
Quoting 1123. PalmBeachWeather:
I saw it first but kept my mouth shut fearing repercussions


I've never seen it, can someone show it to me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
742mb height.

204730 1252N 05552W 7423 02678 0128 +114 +072 078033 034 /// /// 03
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1126. pcola57
Quoting 1117. StormTrackerScott:


They will as the left turn doesn't happen until Sunday


Hey Scott..
How's your day going?
What makes you believe Chantal will turn exactly on Sunday?
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:




Just for the record, the NHC gives Chantal a 13% Chance of becoming a Hurricane over the next 24 hours, So I'll be glad to see how your forecast turns out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Currently thinking Chantal will be able to gradually strengthen until about tomorrow afternoon. Thinking it will strengthen to a 60MPH storm in that time. By tomorrow afternoon, accelerating trade wind flow from the CLLJ will greatly disrupt low-level convergence and possibly even open up the circulation. This should create slight weakening into Wednesday morning. On Wednesday afternoon the storm will cross the Dominican Republic which will significantly weaken the storm. Really impossible to forecast intensity after a landfall but it shouldn't look too pretty on the other side.

Here's what my intensity forecast would look like

INIT 08/2100Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 55 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 60 KT 55 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 45 KT 40 MPH


Here's the NHC's latest for comparison.

INIT 08/2100Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1108. StormTrackerScott:


Grother saw it first.
I saw it first but kept my mouth shut fearing repercussions
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1122. pcola57
Quoting 1048. washingtonian115:
Taz this wave will be the sacrificial wave.The monster behind it will be the big dog.


I agree with you Washi..
Chantal is turning heads and getting ooo's and aaahh's but the wave behind her is looking better than she did at that position..
I'm in agreement with Dr. Masters as well as this may be a looong CV season..
Chantal has issues to overcome..
The next wave will have that enviroment all moistened up..
I believe the real show is about to begin sooner than climo suggests..
Remember I'm just a learned observer..
Nothing more..
Just sharing my opinion here FWIW..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1107. MAweatherboy1:
Updated track:

Less curve...
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Quoting 1107. MAweatherboy1:
Updated track:


NHC decreased the chance of Chantal becoming a Hurricane... The only thing noticeable from this Advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1108. StormTrackerScott:


Grother saw it first.



he seen nothing 1st
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1118. Patrap

U.S. Air Force Major. Dan Jones, of Biloxi Miss, flies a C-130 weather reconnaissance plane into Hurricane Wilma Friday, Oct. 21, 2005. Jones is part of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron temporary based at Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Marietta, Ga., after their home base in Biloxi was damaged by Hurricane Katrina. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
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Quoting 1111. weatherbow:
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

????

If anything I'd think they would shift it left...


They will as the left turn doesn't happen until Sunday
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TS Warning issued for Puerto Rico, watches up for the Virgin Islands and the coast of the Dominican Republic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEARING CHANTAL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 53.9W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
LATER ON TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND REACH PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1114. Dakster
1107 - That doesn't look like a hook to the west was taken into account. The models seem to be trending that way. I guess the NHC wants some consistentcy in that prediction.
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1113. will40
Quoting 1102. Tazmanian:




you seen nothing 1st



did too hee hee
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is the center ahead of the storm ? and exposed?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

????

If anything I'd think they would shift it left...
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Is the NHC going to wait until the last second again before they update Chantal
Oops I spoke too late
still 45mph it looks like crow will not be served
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2348
Making some graphics to show off my thoughts on Chantal...
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Quoting 1102. Tazmanian:




you seen nothing 1st


Grother saw it first.
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Updated track:

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...HH beginning to penetrate T.S. CHANTAL as of 20:40 Z/4:40 PM EDT...
Member Since: October 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 372
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1104. Patrap
At 20:37:30Z (last observation), the observation was 218 miles (351 km) to the E (85°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 20:36Z
Date: July 8, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14

20:37:30Z 13.350N 56.383W 426.0 mb
(~ 12.58 inHg) 7,107 meters
(~ 23,317 feet) - 375 meters
(~ 1,230 feet) From 92° at 23 knots
(From the E at ~ 26.4 mph) -13.5°C
(~ 7.7°F) -52.5°C
(~ -62.5°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 21.1 knots (~ 24.2 mph)
91.7%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
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Recon encroaching on Chantal's Outer Bands now. Going to be an interesting run today.
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Quoting 1101. will40:
i saw it first lmao




you seen nothing 1st
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1101. will40
i saw it first lmao
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redundant post
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CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
Monday 08jul13 Time: 1955 UTC
Latitude: 11.91 Longitude: -53.59
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 6 [130]
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------
| Estimated MSLP: 1001 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 54 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.40
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.87
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.41
RMW: 37 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1012 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 08 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2525
Chantal still 45 mph at 5 PM EST.
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1097. 62901IL
000
WTNT33 KNHC 082041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEARING CHANTAL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 53.9W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1093. Dakster:


I like the sound of that. Plan on doing one of those myself later tonight.
Oh man, LMAO.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 53.9W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
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Typhoon Soulik



There hasn't been a super typhoon in a while and this definitely looks like it could become one.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 535
1093. Dakster
Quoting 1068. Patrap:
Lets see what the penetration run shows us.


I like the sound of that. Plan on doing one of those myself later tonight.
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Looks like Recon is beginning to descend.

203730 1321N 05623W 4260 07107 0375 -135 -525 092023 024 022 000 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Recon beginning descent.
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1090. will40
Quoting 1086. Bluestorm5:
Likely I'll miss the first pass because I got to leave at 5:30 PM EST... disappointed.


i think recon is descending now
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Quoting 1072. StormTrackerScott:



Look at Pat's post below and by the way how do you like your crow cooked?

Like I said, Satellite estimates are overdone more than half the time. Chill out and wait for Recon to investigate in about an hour.
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Quoting 1072. StormTrackerScott:



Look at Pat's post below and by the way how do you like your crow cooked?


Man, don't mess with Scott, I think he's got a direct line to these storms...and Scott, quit predicting intensification, I think they listen to you!

Oh no, you're a storm whisperer!!!
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Quoting 1067. barbamz:
Nobody cares for poor Erick any longer, sigh. So a last view as he's scratching the coast of Baja Cal. Peninsula ...


I still care.....
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Likely I'll miss the first pass because I got to leave at 5:30 PM EST... disappointed.
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1085. Patrap
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For future reference I like my crow fried. Nice and crispy with a side of mashed potatoes and gravy.

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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