Tropical Storm Chantal: a Likely Harbinger of an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2013

Share this Blog
95
+

Tropical Storm Chantal is speeding westwards at 26 mph towards a Tuesday encounter with the Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show that Chantal has plenty of spin, with several well-developed low-level spiral bands that have gradually increased their heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. However, Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The heavy thunderstorm activity near Chantal's center is rather thin, and there are virtually no heavy thunderstorms on the storm's north side, where upper-level northwesterly winds are creating light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and driving dry air into the storm. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, though, at 27.5 - 28°C. There have not been any hurricane hunter missions into Chantal yet, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft deployed to St. Croix on Sunday, and is scheduled to investigate Chantal on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 10 am EDT Monday, July 8, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Levi Denham, a WC-130J Hercules aircraft weather reconnaissance loadmaster assigned to the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron (the Hurricane Hunters), performs pre-engine start-up inspections in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, on Sept. 16, 2010. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Manuel J. Martinez, U.S. Air Force. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for pointing out this photo.

Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that Chantal will experience low to moderate shear through Tuesday afternoon as it heads west-northwest at 25 mph towards Hispaniola. With ocean temperatures expected to warm to 28°C during that time, Chantal has the potential to intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process, and I don't see Chantal making it to hurricane strength before interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This interaction may be able to destroy the storm, since wind shear is also expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Tuesday night through Thursday. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.


Figure 3. There have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one such tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and unnamed tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001.) Image credit: NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Chantal: an uncommon early-season Cape Verde-type tropical storm
Formation of a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles Islands in early July from an African tropical wave is an uncommon occurrence. Since Atlantic hurricane records began in 1851, there have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles, an average of one early-season tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001 that did not become named storms.)

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1283 - 1233

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70Blog Index

1283. docrod
One heck of a train coming off Africa ....

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1268. Dakster:
After Florida, could Chantal pull another atrina?

(I purposely left off the 'k')


naaaaa it's not August or September

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1281. Patrap

At 21:37:30Z (last observation), the observation was 365 miles (587 km) to the ESE (109°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 21:37Z
Date: July 8, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 20

21:37:30Z 11.350N 54.517W 966.7 mb
(~ 28.55 inHg) 395 meters
(~ 1,296 feet) 1012.0 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 229° at 6 knots
(From the SW at ~ 6.9 mph) 20.8°C
(~ 69.4°F) 20.8°C
(~ 69.4°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 16 mm/hr
(~ 0.63 in/hr) 28.5 knots (~ 32.8 mph)
475.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1260. RitaEvac:


We need rain


Not like what GFS 180 hrs says we don't.

That is potentially a very nasty hurricane.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
1279. whitewabit (Mod)
We need to shorten some of these post especially when the same information has been posted on the blog in the last 30 minutes ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z GFS; 30 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1277. Grothar
Quoting 1252. ProgressivePulse:


Not much discrepancy there at all. Odd track for this time of year for sure if it pans out. After the mountains and the shear, Chantal could be just a puff of wind at that time.


Current GFS solution. I am close to this, but off by a few hundred miles. I believe it will enter the middle Windward Islands first and then begin more WNW going to the southern portion of Hispaniola. Then North into the Bahamas and then a sharp turn west into Florida

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26557
Quoting 1273. ncstorm:
and here comes the rocket fuel comparisms about the GOM as that always blows up a cat 4..there are other factors that play in intensity of TC, not just water temp


Could one of those factors be everyone waving their hands talking about it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's touching me! Stop touching me!





Need a laugh? Top 10 sleepy animals. The last one is the kicker.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1274. Patrap
AL032013 - Tropical Storm CHANTAL

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop

click image for Loop

click moving image to ZOOM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1273. ncstorm
and here comes the rocket fuel comparisms about the GOM as that always blows up a cat 4..there are other factors that play in intensity of TC, not just water temp
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1272. Dakster
Quoting 1269. Patrap:
TS Chantal favoring the current environment as some Towers begin to Grow nearer the Center.



Patrap - Got that Hot Tower youtube link handy?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1267. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Anyone know if the hh data made it into the 18z GFS?


It did not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm Summary for 7/8/13
Chantal Latest Data:

Tracking:



Sat Loop:



Sat Windsat:




Latest Recon: Sond:
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 21:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 21Z on the 8th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 13.5N 56.6W
Location: 205 miles (329 km) to the E (82°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 042 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (29.91 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 23.5°C (74.3°F) 50° (from the NE) 20 knots (23 mph)
1000mb 119m (390 ft) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 55° (from the NE) 23 knots (26 mph)
925mb 803m (2,635 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.6°C (69.1°F) 60° (from the ENE) 25 knots (29 mph)
850mb 1,534m (5,033 ft) 18.0°C (64.4°F) 15.1°C (59.2°F) 80° (from the E) 30 knots (35 mph)
700mb 3,174m (10,413 ft) 9.8°C (49.6°F) Approximately 4°C (39°F) 85° (from the E) 27 knots (31 mph)
500mb 5,880m (19,291 ft) -6.9°C (19.6°F) -11.1°C (12.0°F) 95° (from the E) 36 knots (41 mph)
400mb 7,590m (24,902 ft) -16.3°C (2.7°F) Approximately -62°C (-80°F) 70° (from the ENE) 16 knots (18 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 20:34Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Location of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 13.47N 56.58W
Time of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 20:34:53Z

Location of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 13.46N 56.67W
Time of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 20:45:35Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 55° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 22 knots (25 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 27 knots (31 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 376mb to 1013mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 55° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 22 knots (25 mph)


HDOB observations:

21:26:30Z 11.650N 54.283W 966.6 mb
(~ 28.54 inHg) 386 meters
(~ 1,266 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 307° at 5 knots
(From the NW at ~ 5.8 mph) 22.1°C
(~ 71.8°F) 20.5°C
(~ 68.9°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 16.0 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
320.0%
21:27:00Z 11.650N 54.250W 966.4 mb
(~ 28.54 inHg) 387 meters
(~ 1,270 feet) 1010.2 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 324° at 3 knots
(From the NW at ~ 3.4 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 20.5°C
(~ 68.9°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 6.0 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
200.0%
21:27:30Z 11.667N 54.233W 966.7 mb
(~ 28.55 inHg) 384 meters
(~ 1,260 feet) 1010.1 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 308° at 2 knots
(From the NW at ~ 2.3 mph) 22.4°C
(~ 72.3°F) 20.6°C
(~ 69.1°F) 3 knots
(~ 3.4 mph) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 10.0 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
500.0%


Current Vectors:

Time: 21:17:00Z
Coordinates: 11.7833N 54.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.6 mb (~ 28.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 395 meters (~ 1,296 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.1 mb (~ 29.86 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 36° at 19 knots (From the NE at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: 22.9°C (~ 73.2°F)
Dew Pt: 20.7°C (~ 69.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)


Latest Long range GFS:



Latest Long range Nav GEM:



Latest NHC advisory:

Advisory: Link


Discussion as of 5:00 PM:

WTNT43 KNHC 082041
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF CHANTAL HAS OCCURRED
TODAY...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. HOWEVER...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO THE CYCLONE
AND IT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY SHORTLY.
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/23 KT. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT
2 DAYS...SO A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THAT TIME. BY DAYS 3-5...A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND PHASE UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD CREATE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS AND PRODUCE
A WEAKER STEERING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD ON
DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND AND AHEAD OF CHANTAL FAVOR AT LEAST
MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...AND
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES
HISPANIOLA. AFTER CHANTAL MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA ON DAY 2/3...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 11.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 13.0N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 14.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 16.2N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 17.8N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 21.0N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 24.3N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 26.7N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
1269. Patrap
TS Chantal favoring the current environment as some Towers begin to Grow nearer the Center.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1268. Dakster
After Florida, could Chantal pull another atrina?

(I purposely left off the 'k')
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone know if the hh data made it into the 18z GFS?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1254. gator23:
The water around Florida is rocket fuel. Storms often strengthen before landfalling here and a cat 1/2 wouldnt be out of the question.



6-7 days out, who knows what the intensity will be... It is interesting that the models are so close in their long range tracks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1248. RitaEvac:


That's 40-45 miles to my SW


That's a worst case Hou/Galv
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1264. ncstorm
I understand we may get a stalled front even if Chantal doesnt affect us..it just keeps getting better..sigh..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1260. RitaEvac:


We need rain

Dead gum right!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1257. Patrap:
AL032013 - Tropical Storm CHANTAL

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Hot towers firing...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1251. gator23:
After Florida?


Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1256. Stormchaser121:

We would be on the worst side. The Eastern side with all the rain and wind.


We need rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing impressive whatsoever coming from Recon just yet.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1258. Patrap
At 21:27:30Z (last observation), the observation was 376 miles (606 km) to the ESE (105°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 21:26Z
Date: July 8, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 19

21:27:30Z 11.667N 54.233W 966.7 mb
(~ 28.55 inHg) 384 meters
(~ 1,260 feet) 1010.1 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 308° at 2 knots
(From the NW at ~ 2.3 mph) 22.4°C
(~ 72.3°F) 20.6°C
(~ 69.1°F) 3 knots
(~ 3.4 mph) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 10.0 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
500.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1257. Patrap
AL032013 - Tropical Storm CHANTAL

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1248. RitaEvac:


That's 40-45 miles to my SW

We would be on the worst side. The Eastern side with all the rain and wind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1252. ProgressivePulse:


Not much discrepancy there at all. Odd track for this time of year for sure if it pans out. After the mountains and the shear, Chantal could be just a puff of wind at that time.
I agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1254. gator23
The water around Florida is rocket fuel. Storms often strengthen before landfalling here and a cat 1/2 wouldnt be out of the question.

Quoting 1250. weatherlover94:
Looks like Florida is going to get Chantel as a tropical depression and it looks like it could head for Texas after that ...i just wonder what the conditions will be like in the gulf by that time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1249. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Who knows, it may make a run at hurricane status. Remember back when we had Barry I predicted Chantal to become the seasons first hurricane?
It's a possibility if it can slow down first.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1230. Grothar:


Yo, P. They all look like they want to go in the same direction.



Not much discrepancy there at all. Odd track for this time of year for sure if it pans out. After the mountains and the shear, Chantal could be just a puff of wind at that time.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5451
1251. gator23
After Florida?

Quoting 1239. Stormchaser121:
I'm still on board with my Freeport TX landfall prediction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like Florida is going to get Chantel as a tropical depression and it looks like it could head for Texas after that ...i just wonder what the conditions will be like in the gulf by that time
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2209
Quoting 1244. washingtonian115:
Chantel continuing to build thunderstorms near the center with respectable bands.
Who knows, it may make a run at hurricane status. Remember back when we had Barry I predicted Chantal to become the seasons first hurricane?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1239. Stormchaser121:
I'm still on board with my Freeport TX landfall prediction.


That's 40-45 miles to my SW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just now getting into the outer circulation just after 5:30 eastern time.

Time: 21:07:00Z
Coordinates: 12.15N 55.1167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.2 mb (~ 28.53 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 403 meters (~ 1,322 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.8 mb (~ 29.88 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 55° at 25 knots (From the NE at ~ 28.7 mph)
Air Temp: 22.8°C (~ 73.0°F)
Dew Pt: 20.9°C (~ 69.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 26 knots (~ 29.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
1245. Dakster
Quoting 1240. Grothar:
156 hours



Rut Roh...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chantel continuing to build thunderstorms near the center with respectable bands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1232. Doppler22:

With the new African wave? It doesn't even have a yellow crayon around it yet




i no
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sun's up in the West Pac.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1230. Grothar:


Yo, P. They all look like they want to go in the same direction.

Better watch em' Gro. ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1240. Grothar
156 hours

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26557
I'm still on board with my Freeport TX landfall prediction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Typhoon Soulik



Judging by my calculations, it should be close to 600 miles across.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 874
Quoting 1235. will40:


no with Chantal

I meant to be responding to Taz's comment :p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1236. Dakster
Quoting 1234. Bluestorm5:
Sad to leave before first pass...


I thought we were not doing adult themed jokes anymore?

What happened?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1235. will40
Quoting 1232. Doppler22:

With the new African wave? It doesn't even have a yellow crayon around it yet


no with Chantal
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sad to leave before first pass...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1233. Patrap
TS Chantal

Rainbow Loop

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1283 - 1233

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
57 °F
Overcast