Tropical Storm Chantal: a Likely Harbinger of an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2013

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Tropical Storm Chantal is speeding westwards at 26 mph towards a Tuesday encounter with the Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show that Chantal has plenty of spin, with several well-developed low-level spiral bands that have gradually increased their heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. However, Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). The heavy thunderstorm activity near Chantal's center is rather thin, and there are virtually no heavy thunderstorms on the storm's north side, where upper-level northwesterly winds are creating light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and driving dry air into the storm. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, though, at 27.5 - 28°C. There have not been any hurricane hunter missions into Chantal yet, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft deployed to St. Croix on Sunday, and is scheduled to investigate Chantal on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 10 am EDT Monday, July 8, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Levi Denham, a WC-130J Hercules aircraft weather reconnaissance loadmaster assigned to the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron (the Hurricane Hunters), performs pre-engine start-up inspections in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, on Sept. 16, 2010. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Manuel J. Martinez, U.S. Air Force. Thanks go to wunderground member Patrap for pointing out this photo.

Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Monday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that Chantal will experience low to moderate shear through Tuesday afternoon as it heads west-northwest at 25 mph towards Hispaniola. With ocean temperatures expected to warm to 28°C during that time, Chantal has the potential to intensify to a 65 mph tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process, and I don't see Chantal making it to hurricane strength before interacting with the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This interaction may be able to destroy the storm, since wind shear is also expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Tuesday night through Thursday. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.

Once Chantal crosses Hispaniola and enters the Bahamas late this week, the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the northwest is expected to lift out. It is unclear at this point whether or not this trough will be strong enough to pull Chantal out to sea, or whether the storm might be forced back to the northwest into the U.S. East Coast by high pressure building in.


Figure 3. There have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles since 1851, an average of one such tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and unnamed tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001.) Image credit: NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Chantal: an uncommon early-season Cape Verde-type tropical storm
Formation of a tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles Islands in early July from an African tropical wave is an uncommon occurrence. Since Atlantic hurricane records began in 1851, there have been only thirteen tropical depressions or tropical storms that have formed July 15 or earlier that have passed through the Lesser Antilles, an average of one early-season tropical cyclone every thirteen years. Note that two of these storms, Dennis and Emily, occurred during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. There were five other pre-July 16 storms that formed east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, but did not pass through the islands (Bertha of 2009, Barry of 1989, and tropical depressions in 1967, 1978, and 2001 that did not become named storms.)

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters

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2383. Relix
Quoting 2381. Hurricane12:


Must be heading to Grand Cayman, eh?


If wunderkidcayman had his way every system would pass over the Caymans. Heck, a hurricane at 30N would drop sharply south just to hit him. Kid's funny. Haha.
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2382. Relix
Quoting 2379. Gearsts:
Did the track shift closer to us?


A little.
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Quoting 2380. wunderkidcayman:
ok look at Barbados radar you can see Chantal on the SE corner and it look like its moving W-WNW


Must be heading to Grand Cayman, eh?
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ok look at Barbados radar you can see Chantal on the SE corner and it look like its moving W-WNW
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2379. Gearsts
Quoting 2374. Relix:
I am still saying it'll end up abput 45 miles off the south coast of PR. This is it for me tonight, good night guys!
Did the track shift closer to us?
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2378. whitewabit (Mod)
We really need to wait till the models come out with the recon data input .. from today and tomorrow .. we will have a much better idea where Chantal will go ..
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The NHC did not even suggest what will happen after day five, track wise. That seems unusual . . . in many cases they will at least speculate as to where a storm will most likely go.
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2376. BrandiQ
Whens the next flight?
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Guidance is absolutely worthless right now beyond two days as of the 000z runs.

Nothing we can do but sit back and watch. I have a feeling this is going to be a wild ride, as wild maybe as Jeanne or Allison or Ivan.
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2374. Relix
I am still saying it'll end up abput 45 miles off the south coast of PR. This is it for me tonight, good night guys!
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Well, they have it at 60mph over DR, then 40mph way offshore..So most likely the NHC would have said a TD if the point in the track was about 100 miles off of north DR instead of a few hundred.
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if the track shifts north or south in Hispaniola the intensity when it comes off the island will go up....good night everybody
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Models differ greatly in the Friday - Saturday period.. Low confidence in the NHC forecast.

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Look SE,circulation.
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Pretty generous intensity forecast.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT43 KNHC 090300
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF CHANTAL HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING CHANTAL FOUND A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT NORTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WERE THEREFORE ABLE TO CLOSE OFF
A CIRCULATION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
58 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 40 TO 42 KT. A BLEND OF THE
SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A SURPRISINGLY HIGH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010
MB.

CHANTAL CONTINUES TO RACE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KT. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SOME DECELERATE
EXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES HISPANIOLA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST AS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE DEVLOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIVERGES SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER. THE LATEST GFS HAS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT LIES
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LASTEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES HISPANIOLA. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND THE
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
ADVISORY. AFTER CHANTAL INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE
IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MUCH
LESS FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST...
CHANTAL COULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR PERHAPS EVEN
DISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 4 DAY TIME PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CHANTAL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AROUND DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 12.4N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 13.7N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 63.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 17.1N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 19.0N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 22.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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2367. BrandiQ
Hope the cone keeps moving right... maybe all of fl will be out of the cone tomorrow. .. wishful thinking I guess
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I personally think Chantal is moving more W-WNW rather than WNW and a bit slower anyway she soon show up on Barbados radar
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Quoting 2319. ncstorm:


BB she is booking right now..why would she slow down?


There's a wall of high pressure, 1016mb at about 15/16n. She will slow.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
2364. ncstorm
well, I have been here a long time but when I see the words should or expected in the NHC discussion..dont count on it in stone..example I use Hurricane Earl..ridges are the devil..LOL

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/23 KT. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT
2 DAYS...SO A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THAT TIME. BY DAYS 3-5...A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND PHASE UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD CREATE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS AND PRODUCE
A WEAKER STEERING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
BAHAMAS
. AS A RESULT...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE.
..AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD ON
DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
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000
WTNT83 KNHC 090256
TCVAT3

CHANTAL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM AST MON JUL 8 2013

.TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL

PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-09 0900-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 PM AST MON JUL 8 2013

PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W

$$

PRZ012-013-VIZ001-002-090900-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 PM AST MON JUL 8 2013

VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W
CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W
ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W
ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...


Member Since: October 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
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2361. Grothar
So they expect Chantal to remain a TS even after passing over Hispaniola.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26955
000
FONT13 KNHC 090256
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 4 20 20 15
TROP DEPRESSION 2 4 6 16 38 34 25
TROPICAL STORM 92 74 62 61 40 43 51
HURRICANE 7 21 31 20 3 3 9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 19 26 16 3 3 8
HUR CAT 2 1 2 4 3 X X 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 60KT 50KT 35KT 35KT 45KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) 3(24)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 2(20)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) X(23)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10)

LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 18(18) 50(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 51(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PONCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

SAN JUAN 34 X 2( 2) 30(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)

SAINT CROIX 34 X 9( 9) 26(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)

BARBUDA 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

ANTIGUA 34 1 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)

GUADELOUPE 34 1 30(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)

AVES 34 X 80(80) 3(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
AVES 50 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
AVES 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

DOMINICA 34 2 73(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
DOMINICA 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

MARTINIQUE 34 9 81(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
MARTINIQUE 50 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
MARTINIQUE 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

SAINT LUCIA 34 7 43(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

SAINT VINCENT 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

BARBADOS 34 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: October 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
000
WTNT23 KNHC 090254
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM NORTH OF CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES
VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM NORTH OF CABO ENGANO
TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 56.1W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 56.1W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 55.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.7N 59.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.3N 63.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.1N 67.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 71.2W...OVER HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.5N 75.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 56.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Member Since: October 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
Quoting 2344. weatherlover94:
now the NHC track and intensity is reasonable....Not to toot my own horn but I was the one that kept saying it will not be as weak as the NHC thought



You can't say "Not to toot my own horn", and then toot your own horn. :) Good call.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 090256
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...CHANTAL RACING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 56.1W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM NORTH OF CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES
VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM NORTH OF CABO ENGANO
TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
LATER ON TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...
150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND REACH PUERTO RICO
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: October 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
Quoting 2330. Matt74:
You're going to predict a Freeport prediction this far out? Do you happen to have the winning powerball numbers or Texas lotto numbers?

Lol sure. :) This as been my prediction since day 1 of AL95/Chantal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 090300
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF CHANTAL HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING CHANTAL FOUND A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT NORTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WERE THEREFORE ABLE TO CLOSE OFF
A CIRCULATION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
58 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 40 TO 42 KT. A BLEND OF THE
SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A SURPRISINGLY HIGH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010
MB.

CHANTAL CONTINUES TO RACE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KT. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SOME DECELERATE
EXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES HISPANIOLA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST AS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE DEVLOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIVERGES SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER. THE LATEST GFS HAS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT LIES
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LASTEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES HISPANIOLA. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND THE
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
ADVISORY. AFTER CHANTAL INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE
IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MUCH
LESS FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST...
CHANTAL COULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR PERHAPS EVEN
DISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 4 DAY TIME PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CHANTAL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AROUND DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 12.4N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 13.7N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 63.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 17.1N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 19.0N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 22.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: October 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
Track shifted a bit east...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Western Africa,likely the next AOI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That is an interesting turn, NHC shows strengthening in the Bahamas and a higher chance for a Hurricane before Hispaniola
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2375
...CHANTAL RACING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

11:00 PM AST Mon Jul 8
Location: 12.4°N 56.1°W
Moving: WNW at 26 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Member Since: October 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
2350. Grothar
Quoting 2312. BaltimoreBrian:


How deep is the warm water in the Gulf of Mexico outside the loop?


Not very warm




26C Isotherms
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26955
2349. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 2333. BaltimoreBrian:
Thank you whitewabit.


Your welcome ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yep 12.4N 56.1W look about right also pressure 1010mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Updated forecast track:



Updated advisory:

00
WTNT33 KNHC 090256
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...CHANTAL RACING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 56.1W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM NORTH OF CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES
VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM NORTH OF CABO ENGANO
TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
LATER ON TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2329. Orcasystems:


Its called mold..from all the rain you guys have been getting.


actually -- its called beautiful green foliage, we certainly look like a tropical paradise.

However, the west coast of Fl has had huge rains, and I can't imagine what will happen with just the rain expected from the ULL everyone is so interested in.
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2345. wpb
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at2013 03_climo.gif
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
now the NHC track and intensity is reasonable....Not to toot my own horn but I was the one that kept saying it will not be as weak as the NHC thought
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2343. whitewabit (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC no longer weakens it to a TD, perhaps some more optimisim.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link


One thing is for sure the environment around this thing is becoming more favorable. Unless the westerlies get to it or we have a decouple from then I'd expect a large burst of convection to occur sometime tonight. Popcorn thunderstorms are good indicator of the environment becoming wetter and more unstable ahead of the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2318. Envoirment:

Indicates it is below 13N

Quoting 2320. Relix:
I say it goes over Barbados at the current steering

yeah either that or S of the island
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Quoting 2327. wpb:
anyone check stats in satellite era how many ts have formed in chantels position at this time of year?


Dr. Master's has it in his post -- not many
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Quoting 2327. wpb:
anyone check stats in satellite era how many ts have formed in chantels position at this time of year?


I got this out of Jeff's current blog.. it might help you??


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
still 50 mph
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New intensities that are modeled are concerning to say the least. Quite the test for NHC's first CV of the season. Chantal may not be the quaint TS she was early forecast to be. 96L by tomorrow maybe?
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NHC 11 p.m. advisory is up.
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still 50
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Thank you whitewabit.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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