A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters

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Wind Imaging
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i think 95L will be come a strong TS
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Quoting 82. hydrus:
There are some glitches here, but one can see whats happening out there.
Look at the new convection firing up right over the LLC if this develops it needs to continue to fire up thunderstorm over the COC. definitely continuing to organized NHC should put it at 50% as this may very well be a closed low already.
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Quoting 95. CybrTeddy:
As impressive as 95L looks right now, keep in mind that it's still embedded within the ITCZ and not sustaining its own convection. If it starts to separate (move north), it will begin to draw in a lot of SAL and won't look half as impressive as it does now. This is shown on all the models. It's easy to get swept up in excitement surrounding 95L, but this will be like that June 92L invest we saw in 2010 that formed in the MDR, and another well hyped up 92L invest in the MDR during the 2007 season right before Hurricane Dean. However, another point I'm trying to make by mentioning these two hyped-up'ed invests is that each time they preluded incredibly powerful and nearly unprecedented Cape Verde hurricanes. Odds are, this will be the case this year.

Still though it's fun to watch, and you can tell by the pattern SLU posted earlier what extremely dangerous path eventually these storms will probably take, but I'm not expecting development.
I agree, but I believe we may get a T.D.
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Quoting Tasmaniac:
94L


Yes... we have 94L and we also have 95L too.
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Is 95L does develop how likely is it that it will hit somewhere on the east coast?
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Quoting 95. CybrTeddy:
As impressive as 95L looks right now, keep in mind that it's still embedded within the ITCZ and not sustaining its own convection. If it starts to separate (move north), it will begin to draw in a lot of SAL and won't look half as impressive as it does now. This is shown on all the models. It's easy to get swept up in excitement surrounding 95L, but this will be like that June 92L invest we saw in 2010 that formed in the MDR, and another well hyped up 92L invest in the MDR during the 2007 season right before Hurricane Dean. However, another point I'm trying to make by mentioning these two hyped-up'ed invests is that each time they preluded, incredibly powerful and nearly unprecedented Cape Verde hurricanes. Odds are, this will be the case this year.

Still though it's fun to watch, and you can tell by the pattern SLU posted earlier what extremely dangerous path eventually these storms will probably take, but I'm not expecting development.




you could be wrong on that part that you said your not expecting development


from the two


CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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94L
Link
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As impressive as 95L looks right now, keep in mind that it's still embedded within the ITCZ and not sustaining its own convection. If it starts to separate (move north), it will begin to draw in a lot of SAL and won't look half as impressive as it does now. This is shown on all the models. It's easy to get swept up in excitement surrounding 95L, but this will be like that June 92L invest we saw in 2010 that formed in the MDR, and another well hyped up 92L invest in the MDR during the 2007 season right before Hurricane Dean. However, another point I'm trying to make by mentioning these two hyped-up'ed invests is that each time they preluded incredibly powerful and nearly unprecedented Cape Verde hurricanes. Odds are, this will be the case this year.

Still though it's fun to watch, and you can tell by the pattern SLU posted earlier what extremely dangerous path eventually these storms will probably take, but I'm not expecting development.
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Quoting 90. Tazmanian:
has any one noted any thing new with the advisories boxs like Tropical Depression DALILA advisories box is green and Hurricane ERICK advisories box is red seems like they chages color


Link


Wow, what do ya know, they are different colors. Not sure if its new or not though. I didn't notice till you said something. Thanks for pointing that out Taz.
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Early intensity models are not that bullish on 95L. It does have a lot to overcome.

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Quoting Grothar:


What's with the BAMD??
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The Western Pacific Typhoon Season was less active than the Atlantic in 2005.
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has any one noted any thing new with the advisories boxs like Tropical Depression DALILA advisories box is green and Hurricane ERICK advisories box is red seems like they chages color


Link
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Quoting 33. mikatnight:
Since Dr. Masters was kind enough to post his new blog just as I was about to click the 'post comment' button for my GM post - thus saving me the humiliation of having to post it twice, I offer it up now for your amusement...

Good Morning!
Getting a late start today. I see the blog is starting to hop. Lots of circles and arrows (it's enough to make police officer William "Obie" Obanhein proud) and exciting forecasts! Please forgive me while I briefly butt-in with my usual daily presentation of our local morning views...

6:37 am (10:37 GMT)

This was a pleasant surprise to the neighborhood. The new Lantana drawbridge, which has been under construction for over a year now, has got its center-span installed and in the upright position. The scheduled reopening in November - including a $25K fireworks display - is much anticipated. Hopefully, there'll be no hurricane-related delays.


Dexter peers over the seawall by the boat-ramps eyeballing various scurrying creatures. I have to be careful, he fell in once and I had to jump in after him!


do you live in lantana?
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Hopefully 94L = good rain event for Texas
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86. 7544
that thing north of pr is still spinning maybe get a yellow circle soon ? still worth watching imo

but 95L looks best of all so far and way to early to call it a fish imo
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Quoting 81. Neapolitan:
Depends which version of extent you're refering to. IJIS/JAXA extent last year bottom out at 3.489 million km2. I would expect this year's to end up roughly the same, if not a tad lower.


Nea,

Thanks. I should have clarified that. I'm using the Cryosphere Today's numbers found here.

Link
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Looks like TS storm winds are forming on the west side.
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There are some glitches here, but one can see whats happening out there.
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Quoting 77. percylives:


I sincerely doubt the melt in the sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean will be less than 3 million square kilometers in 2013, considerably above the 2012 melt level. Lowest extent will be about 3.5 million square kilometers, IMHO.
Depends which version of extent you're refering to. IJIS/JAXA extent last year bottom out at 3.489 million km2. I would expect this year's to end up roughly the same, if not a tad lower.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 104.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...AND SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR.









HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT ERICK HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER-ALIGNED VERTICALLY...WITH
LITTLE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCE NOW OBSERVED ON THE 37/91 GHZ
MICROWAVE CHANNELS. IN ADDITION...A RAGGED EYE APPEARS TO BE
FORMING ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70
KT...A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WITH A BIT MORE
WEIGHT ON THE TAFB FIX.

MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS ERICK NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DUE TO A
STRONGER RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT REMAINS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE FOR THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST
STILL KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE SINCE ERICK IS NOT THAT
FAR OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE
MORE TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE TOMORROW DUE
TO ERICK MOVING ACROSS COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH
LAND. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THE WEEKEND
WITH MUCH COLDER WATERS IN THE PATH OF ERICK ALONG WITH DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 22.1N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15040
NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN!
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Quoting 46. AussieStorm:

Since it is already Sunday here I will say C or D.
A. It will be a depression 5pm. The forward speed, though fast, is perfect...keeping it at or below 10 N. TS by 1 pm tomorrow. Strong Cat 1 approaching islands.
Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
Quoting 73. jaxbeachbadger:
.....

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Still less melting than last year, thank goodness!


I sincerely doubt the melt in the sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean will be less than 3 million square kilometers in 2013, considerably above the 2012 melt level. Lowest extent will be about 3.5 million square kilometers, IMHO.
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Quoting 62. AussieStorm:

Quoting 64. ackee:
I see we have 95L might take I think once the system track further south it will develop this has the potential to be our first long track storm of the seasons

New burst of convection on the Northern side where the SAL is. This is telling me that the SAL is not affecting this that much. The only way this stay further south and track into the Caribbean is if it stay weak and dont develop that much and let the trade winds carry. But it actually slowly gain some latitude but not that much to steering into the SAL. 
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I don't think 95L will develop.
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Thanks for the updated blog Dr. Masters..
That video "Adrift" is very good..
I found it soothing and amazing..
94L is a gonner soon enough..
Texas and Louisiana will welcome the rain I'm sure..
95L is a different entity..
If it can survive all the obstacles in it's travels then I would suspect it will be a storm and be named..
From whence it goes to where it lands will be interesting to me..
Having said this I'm well aware of the crazy weather we have been having all year..
I don't like to use markers as a rule but I believe since Hurricaine Sandy of last year there seems to be an imbalance struck and is persisting..
Of course it's only one persons view but I can't seem to justify it,or maybe quantify it is a better term..
The weather patterns have gone awry..
I think the word normal will not apply to weather now and in years to come..
We are living in times that we have created and accelerated the climate events we now are experiencing..
People with better minds and better data can explain it better than I can ever do..
All I know is that it is happening..
Whether we want to believe it or not..
All this is just my opinion and if I've stepped on your Climate toes,well maybe they need to be stepped on..
FWIW.. :)
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Last couple of days have been way, way below average melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet, continuing a two week trend.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

On the other hand, Arctic Sea Ice extent has been decreasing at an accelerated pace over the first few days of July, after a relatively slow June. Very strange, I would have thought the two would go in tandem.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Still less melting than last year, thank goodness!
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Dr. Masters,

Thanks for posting the "Adrift" video. It reminded me of some of the wonderful displays of nature I saw when running tugs in SF Bay.
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Shear is more than favorable for this to quickly develop once it closes off its circulation. STJ is not as dominant as it was in June as is only being enhanced by the ULL which will move west and allow Shear to lessen. Notice on the east edge shear is actually decreasing which suggest to me if it get going then an anticyclone will form over it and the STJ will only stop it from deepen out into a Hurricane. That why intensity models are showing it becoming a strong TS but not a Hurricane but once it get past that I see this deepen into a possible Hurricane near the Bahamas or in the Caribbean if it stay weak and head further south.



Ships model bring it up to 60kts in just 4 days time which I completely agree with.

Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 65. Astrometeor:


Was Typhoon Rumbia not in the Western Pacific?

Yes it was. That's the storm with a 60mph 10 minute sustained winds..
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
The Western Pacific hasn't been active at all this year. With only 9 storms and the strongest being 60mph (10 minute sustained.)

Watch for late season strong ones. 2010 was like this until Megi.

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Quoting 56. Tazmanian:




no wx is right there is nothing going for 94L i dont even see a LOW with 94L and if it dos have one its vary weak 94L is this a big mess


iight thats cool am not the expert however it looks interesting for now thanks much
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95L
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new t.storms on the north of the center low on invest 95L
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Quoting 58. JrWeathermanFL:
The Western Pacific hasn't been active at all this year. With only 9 storms and the strongest being 60mph (10 minute sustained.)


Was Typhoon Rumbia not in the Western Pacific?
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I see we have 95L might take I think once the system track further south it will develop this has the potential to be our first long track storm of the seasons
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92L was olny a test back in june 95L could be the real deal this time
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Quoting 27. WhoDatRR:
To mow, or not to mow: that is the question.

In central Texas, just North of Austin, and looking at a lawn that is once-again starting to brown. If I mow it, and 94L dissipates or redirects, I will surely brown. If I don't mow, and 94L comes through, I will have missed one of the few chances to mow that I'll have this Summer - And I really hate those stickers that pop-up in my field, when I avoid mowing for too long.

Why is it that every bit of weather, for the past several years, seems to go around us? Coming from New ORleans, and having literally been born during Hurricane Camille, I'm just not used to this. Give us rain!


In centex, on Lake Travis - what's left of it, 50ft low - 94L could solve so many problems if she would just get it together. Even if she can't, she can destabilize our atmosphere so the Death Ridge has a harder time developing thus keeping Don repeats from happening.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3282
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. I'm in SW LA and our NWS office can't make up their minds regarding the forecast. LOL
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Quoting 52. beell:


For sure, Taz. If it gets near/above 20N it may have a short-term battle with some wind shear.


It will as mentioned by Masters but if we have a strong system before it reaches there then The STJ which is not very strong as it was during June will have to weaken some without the disrupting to storm to much. S. Florida is actually in the bulleye for this. I usually dont thing about a possible area for landfall wayyy down the line like that but if this develop and make it past PR the persistent High wont allow this to turn out to the North and It wont be weak enough to stay on a zonal path into the Great Antilles. In anyway this is a great tease at the least of what will happen in August.
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The Western Pacific hasn't been active at all this year. With only 9 storms and the strongest being 60mph (10 minute sustained.)
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57. SLU
Quoting 31. hurricane23:


Very nice!

When that SAL clears out in a few weeks oh boy.


Oh boy indeed.

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Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Quoting 38. caribbeantracker01:


nope soon you will be surprised look at the visible and radar images to justify why





no wx is right there is nothing going for 94L i dont even see a LOW with 94L and if it dos have one its vary weak 94L is this a big mess
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Quoting 50. Astrometeor:


Haha, doing a light drizzle here in North Nashville hydrus.

We have had enough Astro...It is starting to get bad here.
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Quoting 38. caribbeantracker01:


nope soon you will be surprised look at the visible and radar images to justify why



Trust MissWx, it's a big mess. As TropicalAnalyst put it yesterday, "large low pressure trough with forced convection".
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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