A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

Share this Blog
66
+

A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2154 - 2104

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

If 95 L doesn't start to gain some Lattitude it going to run right into South America
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2153. Patrap
NOLA Long Range

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134615
2152. viman
Quoting washingtonian115:
Emily of 2011 was the storm of multiple centers.

so was Erika 09

time to play "Pick A Center"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2151. Patrap
Hurricane Preparation 2013

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.








Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134615
I have seen lots of eventual big storms with exposed llc, this happens a lot of times.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
Quoting 2147. weatherlover94:


if it manages to miss Hispaniola you may have something on your hands


It has to avoid S America first
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2132. Grothar:


Yes, some terrible tragedies there.
I actually try to say that tc that hit Hispañola most of them not recuperate from the mountainous region,but you are correct Gro.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2129. Grothar:
I better start my checklist.




if it manages to miss Hispaniola you may have something on your hands
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2146. Patrap
95L may Impact S.America?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134615
2145. jpsb
Quoting 2029. LargoFl:
Gro we do NOT need another rainmaker in the gulf huh...
Yes we do, Texas is dry as heck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2141. CaicosRetiredSailor:


95L
Looking good :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2137. Camille33:

This is a td or what is going on?


do you understand what he even said??
td?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2139. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh man those are so good, I am actually craving that right now. Of course we make the one with raisins and El Dorado Rum in it. :D
I think they can be ordered from the US or there might be an outlet or something that sells them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


95L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2124. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Off topic: WKC or Stormpetrol do they still sell the Tortuga Rum Cake in the Caymans?

Yep

Quoting 2129. Grothar:
I better start my checklist.



You shoulda had that done from 2 months ago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2126. stormwatcherCI:
Not either one of them but yes they do.
Oh man those are so good, I am actually craving that right now. Of course we make the one with raisins and El Dorado Rum in it. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9429
2138. Patrap


..all, my, Invest's, own a low rider...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134615
Quoting 2125. Tazmanian:
07/1145 UTC 9.1N 41.1W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic

This is a td or what is going on?
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
Quoting 2132. Grothar:


Yes, some terrible tragedies there.


tragedies?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2135. SLU
Based on the latest loops, it seems that 95L's center is relocating further south along its elongated trough under the MLC near 8n 42w. This would give it a better chance for survival since it would be more vertically stacked and the center would be closer to the deepest convection.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5517
Quoting 2115. wunderkidcayman:


Nah it's gonna move further S



Yeah. Steering suggests it may not even have time to develop, since it's going to be very close to the continent.


Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting 2129. Grothar:
I better start my checklist.


Me too and BTW, good morning and happy you are on the road to recovery.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2132. Grothar
Quoting 2120. allancalderini:
Imo Hispañola is the worst landmass in terms of Islands in the Caribbean a tropical storm or a hurricane can hit.


Yes, some terrible tragedies there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2116. Grothar:
Looks like it wants to be low rider.



No it doesn't want to be it will be

Quoting 2117. RTSplayer:
95L is really spinning up now, but still not getting any latitude.

Looks like really good inflow on visible and shortwave.

Yes it had gain some by the time it reaches 60W I think it will be below 14N and above 11N

Quoting 2118. Camille33:
Very organized system,I wouldn't downcast this at all.

Yep
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2121. hurricane23:
Acutally unless this slows down or developes a real llc there wont be much left come tommorow around this time. Its dealing with some easterly vertical shear along with sinking air.
Quoting 2122. Camille33:
Shear and dry air is not an issue right now at all.
meh I am not sure which of you is correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2129. Grothar
I better start my checklist.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seeing the hail path in the photo taken above Alberta yesterday, (it looks like the path of a tornado) I was wondering if there are studies of the paths of hail across the landscape. How unusual is this trail of hail?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am not as sold as I was on 95L doing anything

fairly well organized, but it has a lot more things against it then many on here think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2124. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Off topic: WKC or Stormpetrol do they still sell the Tortuga Rum Cake in the Caymans?
Not either one of them but yes they do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
07/1145 UTC 9.1N 41.1W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5096 Comments: 116576
Off topic: WKC or Stormpetrol do they still sell the Tortuga Rum Cake in the Caymans?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9429
Quoting 2075. CybrTeddy:


There's a circulation, however it appears to be only half-closed. It's better than it was yesterday, however it still has a lot of work to do. Not bad though for something hauling at 24mph.


hmm, moving that fast is actually not helping the storm organize as much
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shear and dry air is not an issue right now at all.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
Acutally unless this slows down or developes a real llc there wont be much left come tommorow around this time. Its dealing with some easterly vertical shear along with sinking air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2116. Grothar:
Looks like it wants to be low rider.


Imo Hispañola is the worst landmass in terms of Islands in the Caribbean a tropical storm or a hurricane can hit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Find more about Weather in Rydalmere, New South Wales, Australia
Weather Forecast

It's a little chilly so I'm off to bed.
Night all. Brrrrrrr

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Very organized system,I wouldn't downcast this at all.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1570
95L is really spinning up now, but still not getting any latitude.

Looks like really good inflow on visible and shortwave.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
2116. Grothar
Looks like it wants to be low rider.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2112. stormchaser19:
The Euro has the system in northern of leeward island, this track means some slow down!!


Nah it's gonna move further S

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2104. ackee:
what will become of 95L ?


A TS
B TD
C OPEN WAVE
D Dissipate



A TS and maybe stronger just maybe

Quoting 2107. hurricane23:
Exposed vortex soon.

Nah it's exposed long enough it's stating to cover it seems

Quoting 2108. stormwatcherCI:
She continued west through the Caribbean and passed close to the Cayman Islands. I remember her well. Had several trees blown down in my yard.

Yep I remember it too

Quoting 2109. SLU:
Nice thunderstorm burst occurring near the center of 95L. The MLC is displaced about a degree further south indicative of a decoupled system.



It should get back together soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Emily of 2011 was the storm of multiple centers.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19560
The Euro has the system in northern of leeward islands, this track means some slow down!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Clouds starting to build in Houston from ex-94L. Boomer are starting to build. Looking forward to rain today!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2100. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The mere fact that these models want to turn it more towards the WNW would not only imply a change in direction, but a slow down in speed.

Yep
Quoting 2101. nrtiwlnvragn:
Based on this loop would have to agree there is an exposed low level swirl.

Yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2109. SLU
Nice thunderstorm burst occurring near the center of 95L. The MLC is displaced about a degree further south indicative of a decoupled system.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5517
Quoting 2074. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Reminds me and perhaps very similar conditions to TS Emily..."The cyclogenesis of Tropical Storm Emily was complicated, extending over several days from late July into early August. An easterly tropical wave%u2014an equatorward trough of low pressure%u2014exited the west African coast in the fourth week of July, at which point it became largely embedded within the monsoon trough.[1] Located to the south of a ridge of high pressure, the wave moved west-northwestward across the open Atlantic."
She continued west through the Caribbean and passed close to the Cayman Islands. I remember her well. Had several trees blown down in my yard.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Exposed vortex soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dean was moving at 21mph when its first advisory was issued, 24 is fast but it could still develop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2092. cctxshirl:
What happened to 94L? I blinked and it's gone-sure was hoping for some rain in S. TX.


It looks more there than it did last night, but it's been de-activated. Austin rain chance 20 today 20 tomorrow then zip. This system has broken my heart.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3408
2104. ackee
what will become of 95L ?


A TS
B TD
C OPEN WAVE
D Dissipate


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2154 - 2104

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Gust front cloud, SE Michigan
Thunderstorm over Grand Teton
Double rainbow over Old Faithful
Rainbow in Riverside Geyser